Michigan vs. Texas
- Point-Spread: Tex -8.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: Tex 28.5 – Mich 20
- Weather: 59 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Marshall ($6,600) Marshall was in full pads during practice on Sunday, now a month removed from the Ohio State matchup where he was limited to minimal snaps due to an upper body injury. Not expecting Michigan to diverge much from its offensive identity after the coaching change – this will always be a run-first offense in Ann Arbor. Texas excelled against the run this season, but on Wednesday the Longhorns will be without seven of their top 11 defenders. Most of Michigan’s offensive line will be intact, aside from one starting guard.
***Word of caution – Marshall said to the media this week that he’s “just trying to get strong on my shoulder” and “taking it day by day.” It’s possible we see a shared workload between Marshall and backup RB Bryson Kuzdzal ($5,700) who impressed against Maryland and Ohio State in the last two games.
Pivot Play – QB Bryce Underwood ($5,700) Quarterback is a strength on the slate, so we’ll have minimal exposure to Underwood here even at $5.7k. That said, Texas is missing three of its four starters in the secondary, and Underwood will have his full complement or receivers available to him to throw to. When Biff Poggi was in charge during the two-game stretch in Week’s 3-4 when Sherrone Moore was suspended, we saw Underwood run as much as he has all year with a combined 175 yards and two scores vs. Central Michigan and Nebraska.
Best of the Rest – WR Andrew Marsh ($4,600) or WR Donaven McCulley ($4,200) Barring a major surprise, we expect both Marsh and McCulley to play on Wednesday as both were show in full pads during practice. Marsh was the one in question potentially after rumors were swirling that he was poking around the portal after the coaching change. The duo combined for 53% of the team’s total receiving production and six of the nine receiving touchdowns.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Justice Haynes (out), WR Semaj Morgan (doubtful)
Texas:
Top Play – WR Emmett Mosley ($4,900) No confirmation yet but would expect Mosley to be the receiver kicking inside in the slot with DeAndre Moore Jr. entering the transfer portal. Mosley spent 63% of his time in the slot last year with Stanford so he’s familiar with playing inside. Mosley had a strong close to the year with 50+ receiving yards in four of his last five games.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Endries ($3,600) Endries has stated he will play on Wednesday, and the matchup is strong against a Michigan defense that allows over 12 FPPG to tight ends, the highest number on the slate for any defensive group. Linebackers struggle in coverage for the Wolverines, so you see tight ends and slot receivers typically do the most damage against this defensive scheme. With the depleted depth in the backfield, WR / KR Ryan Niblett ($3,100) is expected to be the RB2 behind Christian Clark.
Pivot Play – RB Christian Clark ($4,400) Texas will be without its RB1, RB2 and RB3, leaving Christian Clark to assume the starting mantle against the Wolverines. Clark ran for just 137 yards on 32 carries this season, but had a ton of hype during the summer, to the point where some thought the redshirt freshman would start over Tre Wisner or CJ Baxter – Clark is not short on talent. Michigan was stout against the run for much of the year, ranked 50th in success rate, 6th in explosive run plays allowed, but did give up 100+ to Ohio State’s Bo Jackson in the finale.
Best of the Rest – QB Arch Manning ($8,600) Michigan allowed just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season, but this was not an overly dominant group in the secondary, ranked 102nd in pass D success rate and 56th in EPA per pass. The Wolverines will also be without two of their top pass rushers who will enter the NFL Draft. I would put Manning as the QB4 on the slate behind Pavia, Mensah and Sims. WR Ryan Wingo ($6,400) and Parker Livingstone ($4,300) are both in play after combining for 13 receiving touchdowns in the regular season. The reason we prefer Mosley is Michigan ability to limit the deep ball, ranking 3rd nationally in explosive pass plays allowed. Wingo and Livingstone thrive on big plays, both averaging well over 15 YPC.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Tre Wisner (portal), WR DeAndre Moore Jr. (portal), RB Jerrick Gibson (portal), RB CJ Baxter (portal)
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt
- Point-Spread: Van -4.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Van 26 – Iowa 21.5
- Weather: 56 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Iowa:
Copy + Paste from the previous Iowa DFS writeups this season – Can RB Kamari Moulton ($5,800) run on Vanderbilt is all we need to know. Our initial lean is towards, yes, but this will be tough sledding against a defense that finished the year 15th in yards allowed on the ground, 25th in EPA per rush and allowed just 20 combined fantasy points to opposing backfields in the regular season. The flipside of that argument is that Iowa’s offensive line won the Joe Moore Award in 2025 as the best group in college football, helping the Hawkeyes rank 8th nationally in line yards and 18th in rush success rate. We’ll have some Moulton exposure, but this is a tough Vanderbilt defense that does not have any opt-outs and will be intact.
Honorable mentions for QB Mark Gronowski ($6,500) and emerging TE DJ Vonnahme ($3,700) as possible options. Gronowski scored a rushing touchdown in all but one game this season and has a marginally higher projection than Arch Manning who is $2.3k more expensive. Gut hunch – Gronowski will want to go blow for blow with Diego Pavia with his arm and legs in his final collegiate game, and is a sneaky GPP option. Vanderbilt allowed over 22 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Vonnahme, a true freshman, looks to be the next from a long lineage of stud tight ends for Iowa, finishing the year with 12 of his 22 receptions coming in the last four games, along with both of his receiving touchdowns. Vanderbilt struggled mightily to defend tight ends this season, allowing over 12 FPPG to the position, including 7-85-0 on nine targets to Tennessee’s Ethan Davis in the regular season finale.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Xavier Williams (out)
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($9,200) Difficult to not consider Pavia the top QB option on the slate given his performances in the final month, scoring 38 or more fantasy points in each of his final four games. The only defection offensively for Vanderbilt will be stud tight end Eli Stowers, but everyone else for the Dores is a go for Wednesday. Iowa was exceptional this season against the pass, ranking 6th in EPA and allowing just 10 FPPG to quarterbacks in the regular season. That said, numbers tend to look like that when facing the likes of TJ Lateef, Hunter Simmons and Alessio Milivojevic in the offensively inept Big Ten. We’ll close by saying we don’t feel Pavia is the “lock” that he was back in November given Iowa’s defensive metrics against the pass.
Fade – RB Sedrick Alexander ($6,500) Alexander doesn’t see the volume of a $6.5k running back, averaging just 8.3 carries per contest. So, if we don’t get the volume, we need a big play or two out of Alexander, correct? Iowa allowed the second fewest runs of 20 or more yards in the Big Ten this season (7).
Bargain Bin – TE Cole Spence ($3,200) Eli Stowers being out means more opportunity for the 6-foot-7 junior tight end who finished the year with 13 receptions on 16 targets and two scores. Spence showed he was plenty capable earlier in the year with his performance against LSU with 56 yards and a touchdown on five catches.
Best of the Rest – WR Junior Sherrill ($5,600) or WR Tre Richardson ($5,500) The more likely scenario rather than Spence assuming Stowers’ vacated production is that we see Pavia target his top receivers more in Sherrill and Richardson who combined for 13 of the 28 receiving touchdowns in 2025. Three receivers posted 100+ yards against Iowa this season, but all three were future NFL Draft selections in Makai Lemon, Ian Strong and Elijah Sarratt. WR Richie Hoskins ($4,100) ranked fourth on the team in routes run as the WR3 and could see more looks in the slot with Stowers out as well. Stowers lineup up as a slot 66% of the time in 2025.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – TE Eli Stowers (out)
Arizona State vs. Duke
- Point-Spread: Duke -3.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: Duke 26.5 – ASU 23
- Weather: 54 degrees / 10% rain / 2 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – WR Derek Eusebio ($4,500) or WR Malik McClain ($5,700) Skeleton crew offensively for Arizona State with its starting QB, top three RBs, top WR and top TE all unavailable. While we’re not confident Arizona State can generate a ton of yards through the air, the matchup dictates we look towards the WRs here against a Duke secondary that allowed 47 FPPG to opposing team’s receivers during the regular season which is *easily* the highest number on the slate. Both receivers listed popped towards the end of the season, with Eusebio catching touchdowns in two of his last three games, while playing a season-high 86% of the snaps in the finale vs. Arizona. McClain led all ASU receivers in routes run, though was extremely inefficient with a 38% catch rate and 0.89 yards per route run. Awful numbers. Eusebio is the preferred choice of the two.
Fade – RBs. Duke is average across the board when it comes to defending the run, ranked 52nd in yards allowed per game on the ground and 67th in EPA per rush play. Arizona State, however, is down to RB4 and RB5 in this game with RB Demarius Robinson ($4,000) and RB Jason Brown Jr. ($4,500) who have a combined 16 career carries between them. Significant risk in playing either RB, not knowing who is the “official” starter and likely splitting carries with the QB(s).
Bargain Bin – WR Jalen Moss ($4,100) Moss started two games this season when Jordyn Tyson was out of the lineup due to injury in Week’s 10 and 12. In those two games, the former Fresno State transfer combined for 93 yards and six receptions on 11 targets. WR Jaren Hamilton ($3,200) likely sees his role increase with Tyson out of the lineup and did have 100 yards vs. the best defense ASU faced all year in Texas Tech. TE Cameron Harpole ($3,000) will start in place of Chamon Metayer at tight end.
Pivot Play – QB Jeff Sims ($7,200) If we knew that Sims was playing the entire game, he would be the lock of the slate, perhaps even over Diego Pavia given the matchup. Duke is 120th in pass D success rate, 118th in allowing explosive pass plays and 109th in highest pass rating allowed to opposing QBs. The issue is that Kenny Dillingham (Dilly, Dilly) and the staff have hinted at playing backup QB Cameron Dyer in this matchup. Sims is playable at this cost and against this porous defense but doesn’t come without risk.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Sam Leavitt (portal), WR Jordyn Tyson (NFL), RB Raleek Brown (NFL), TE Chamon Metayer (NFL), RB Kanye Udoh (out), RB Kyson Brown (out), WR Harry Hassmann (out), WR Noble Johnson (out)
Duke:
Bargain Bin – TE Jeremiah Hasley ($4,700) Hasley was exceptional down the stretch with three of more catches in each of his last six games – he had just 10 combined catches in his first seven games. The junior tight end had five receiving touchdowns in the final five weeks, including two in the ACC title game vs. Virginia. Arizona State did not defend the tight end position well this season, allowing just over 11 fantasy points per contest.
Pivot Play – QB Darian Mensah ($7,500) Projection of just 15.6 points doesn’t warrant much consideration for Mensah, but Duke will be fully intact offensively for Wednesday, with several of the key offensive pieces already committing to the Blue Devils for 2026. No real perceived weakness on Arizona State defensively, but the Sun Devils did allow over 22 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season and were 12th in the B12 in yards allowed through the air. Mensah provides a high floor given no opt-outs for Duke offensively.
Best of the Rest – RB Nate Sheppard ($6,900) Duke leaned on its RB1 late in the year with 20+ carries in his last three games, scoring a combined 53 fantasy points against Wake Forest in the finale and Virginia in the ACC title game. Why Sheppard is NOT a lock is that volume was required for Sheppard to score that many fantasy points, averaging just 4.0 YPC across those two games. Does Sheppard get 20 carries in a meaningless bowl game? ASU was 44th in EPA per rush play, allowing just 18 FPPG to opposing backfields, so the Sun Devils were strong against the run this season.
WR Cooper Barkate ($6,600), WR Que’Sean Brown ($4,400) and WR Sahmir Hagans ($3,900) are all playable, knowing they’ll be on the field over 80% of the game. Slot receivers seemed to have the most success against Arizona State this season – Kris Hutson (7-95-0), Joseph Manjack (6-86-0), Coy Eakin (5-66-1) – which in this case would favor Brown who lined up in the slot 83% of the time this season.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska vs. Utah
- Point-Spread: Utah -14.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: Utah 32.5 – Neb 18
- Weather: Dome
Nebraska:
We were going to be off Nebraska for this game in general, but the quotes from offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen only exacerbated that fact. QB TJ Lateef ($6,000) was questionable entering the week but is expected to start. Holgorsen said that Lateef only started running “a couple of days ago” as of Monday. Quarterbacks scored 30% fewer fantasy points than their seasonal average against the Utes this season, and if Lateef is immobile, that decreases our interest further.
Without Emmett Johnson, who opted to declare for the NFL Draft, Holgorsen said NU would be using a “committee approach” at running back and isn’t sure what that would look like until the game starts. Expect to see as many as four running backs get carries. If someone emerges, teams have been able to run on the Utes, specifically late in the year with Kansas and Kansas State combining for over 760 (!!!) total rushing yards in the last two weeks. We’ll look in pregame warmups to see who is alongside Lateef in the backfield between RB Mekhi Nelson ($4,300) was lined up first in the stretching line in practices, while RB Isaiah Mozee ($4,800) shared first-team reps with Nelson during individual periods, according to reports.
At receiver, Holgorsen said to the media that Nebraska rest starters Nyziah Hunter, Jacory Barney and Dane Key. With Key out of eligibility and Hunter a possible NFL entry guy, it stands to wonder how much we see these players on Wednesday. Holgorsen singled out WR Quinn Clark ($3,000) as the underclassmen that has stood out most in bowl practices.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Dylan Raiola (portal), RB Emmett Johnson (NFL)
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Wayshawn Parker ($6,400) Over / under 300 total rushing yards for Utah against the 97th ranked run defense in the country in terms of yards allowed per game. The Cornhuskers finished 108th in stuff rate, 112th in rush D success rate and 129th in explosive run plays allowed, while also giving up close to 30 FPPG to opposing backfields. The Utes leaned on Parker down the stretch with four 100-yard rushing performances in five games.
Bargain Bin – WR Larry Simmons ($4,200) Expecting a run-heavy script from the Utes being two-touchdown favorites and Nebraska deficiencies on defense defending the run. Simmons was a standout in the final two games with 151 combined yards and three touchdowns as he played in place of the injured Ryan Davis. No official word on Davis, but Simmons sees the most significant boost if he’s out. WR JJ Buchanan ($4,000) was third on the team in routes run as a freshman and tied for third with four TDs. TE Dallen Bentley ($5,200) was second in routes run and touchdowns (5).
For as bad as Nebraska was defending the run, they were equally as good against the pass, ranked 25th in success rate and 21st at limiting explosives in the air. Opposing team’s WRs averaged just 17 combined FPPG against the Huskers secondary, so we’re limiting ourselves to one Utah pass-catcher a lineup.
Pivot Play – QB Devon Dampier ($8,700) Bowl games are known for shenanigans and Utah has been playing games with the QB position since Week 9 with Dampier and backup QB Byrd Ficklin ($7,700) splitting snaps. In a scenario with Utah being overwhelming favorites, that is the expectation here, which unfortunately diminishes the value of both players. We’d likely only consider Dampier or Ficklin here if there’s a surprise opt-out in the pregame. Nebraska allowed just 16 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but Dampier and Ficklin will give the Huskers trouble with their legs. ***Ficklin being $5.8k on FanDuel is underpriced considered to DK, and considerable even with the inherent risk he doesn’t see more than a handful of snaps.
Best of the Rest – RB Naquari Rogers ($5,200) or RB Daniel Bray ($4,700) Utah is on the verge of losing its offensive coordinator to Michigan following Kyle Whittingham, and Wayshawn Parker is a prime transfer portal candidate following the OC, so it would not surprise us one bit to see Utah spread the carries around as they did in September and October. Rogers finished second on the team to Devon Dampier in red-zone carries this season (31), while tied for the team lead in touchdowns (10). Bray, a talented true freshman, had a spike week earlier in the year with 121 yards on 10 carries in the loss to BYU.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – WR Ryan Davis (questionable)
Miami vs. Ohio State
- Point-Spread: OSU -9.5
- O/U Total: 42.5
- Implied Score: OSU 26 – Mia 16.5
- Weather: Dome
Miami:
Fade – QB Carson Beck ($6,700) We shouldn’t trust Carson Beck in this spot, and I don’t think the Miami coaching staff does either after his showing last week against Texas A&M (albeit in windy conditions), throwing for just 103 yards in the win. Beck’s 20 pass attempts in that matchup was the lowest number of his entire season. Ohio State also allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in the entire country at just 6.1 PPG in the regular season.
Bargain Bin – WR CJ Daniels ($4,800) or WR Keelan Marion ($4,300) Neither were much of a factor against A&M, but who was in the Miami passing game when the QB threw for 100 yards? Miami did not rotate at all at wide receiver with both Marion and Daniels playing over 83% of the offensive snaps and won’t receive nearly the attention that Malachi Toney does from the OSU secondary. Boundary receivers have found the most success against Ohio State this season – ie Indiana’s Charlie Becker in the B1G title game with 126 yards.
Pivot Play – WR Malachi Toney ($7,000) Even in a game where Miami threw for 100 yards, Toney still managed to have a profound impact on the outcome with five receptions and a touchdown, while also getting three rushing attempts and the Canes continue to mix in a pass attempt or two from the freshman WR. The downside is Toney will be shadowed by Caleb Downs, arguably the best defender in the country.
Best of the Rest – RB Mark Fletcher ($5,100) Miami leaned on its veteran running back on the road as Fletcher had a career performance with 172 yards on the ground on just 17 carries. Ohio State is far superior to A&M at defending the run, ranked 2nd in success rate, 7th in stuff rate and gave up the fewest rushing touchdowns in the country. This is not nearly as good a matchup for the Miami running game as it was vs. the Aggies.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Smith ($8,400) or WR Carnell Tate ($7,400) We’re taking the same approach as every week during the regular season where Ohio State was on the main slate. Most of our constructed lineups will have one of Smith or Tate as the duo combined for nearly 2,000 receiving yards and 20 of the 32 receiving touchdowns. Smith scored a touchdown in 3-of-4 playoff games a year ago. In the game where Smith was limited to three yards by Texas, it was Tate who dominated with 87 yards on seven receptions.
Fade – QB Julian Sayin ($7,800) Sayin is a better play than Carson Beck in this specific matchup, but Miami’s strong in the secondary, ranked 18th in EPA per pass, 14th in success rate and allowed just 14 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season. There’s enough QB options on the slate to look elsewhere.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($3,500) Miami’s defensive front is going to get after Julian Sayin and Ohio State’s shaky offensive line, so expect the ball coming out quickly from the QBs hand. That could work in favor of Klare who finished third on the team in targets (54) and receptions (43). Miami struggled some to defend the tight end position, allowing 9.3 FPPG in the regular season.
Best of the Rest – RB Bo Jackson ($6,000) Ohio State leaned on its freshman running back in the second half of the year with four 100-yard performances in his last six games. From Week’s 2-8, Jackson averaged 11.3 carries per contest. In Week’s 10 through the conference title game, Jackson averaged 16.5 carries per game. Miami’s run defense can be leaky at times, ranked 77th in EPA per rush and 91st in explosive runs allowed.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
- An Ohio State WR
- RB Nate Sheppard, Duke
- A Texas WR
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
- An Ohio State WR
- RB Nate Sheppard, Duke
- A Texas WR
