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Oregon vs. Texas Tech
- Point-Spread: Ore -2.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: Ore 27 – TT 24.5
- Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – TE Kenyon Sadiq ($5,900) The one “weakness” of the Texas Tech defense all season has been coverage of tight ends, as the Red Raiders allowed 13.4 FPPG to the position. And will now take on the most talented and physically gifted tight end prospect in the country in Sadiq. There were three instances where a tight end was the leading receiver against Texas Tech this season, and a fourth matchup against Kansas where TE Boden Groen caught 13 passes against the Red Raiders. If you want to bargain bin shop, but still have exposure to Oregon tight ends, TE Jamari Johnson ($3,900) has caught at least three passes in four of his last five games and scored a touchdown in the playoff vs. James Madison.
Fade – RB Jordon Davison ($6,200) We know to avoid RBs against Texas Tech this season, as the Red Raiders finished the season No. 1 in the country in yards allowed on the ground. Davison was not listed on the injury report this week, but we know we left the game against James Madison with a leg injury and was helped off the field. If he’s less than 100% in what has been a RBBC most of the year for Oregon…against the best run D in the country…that is a strong reason to fade.
Pivot Play – RB Noah Whittington ($6,500) Oregon played in six games this season that were within 15 or fewer points. Whittington had double-digit rushing attempts in four of those six matchups. While we fade running backs against Texas Tech, and mostly advise doing so again here, 15+ touches is a possibility for Whittington as Oregon seems to trust its senior running back in its biggest matchups. If there’s a team that can run on Tech, it would be the Ducks who rank 3rd in rush success rate, 2nd in standard down success rate and 17th in line yards.
Best of the Rest – QB Dante Moore ($7,700) Moore would be my QB3-4 on this slate, as Tech is equally as good against the pass as the run. The Red Raiders only allowed 14 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season with just a single QB scoring more than 20 fantasy points – Kansas State’s Avery Johnson who rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns. Moore doesn’t have that rushing upside.
No Oregon wide receiver had more than 15% target share in 2025, and we’re expecting a healthier WR Dakorien Moore ($5,100) and WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($3,200) with multiple weeks off as both barely played vs. JMU. Would limit lineups to one Oregon WR between Moore, Bryant, WR Jeremiah McClellan ($4,100) or WR Malik Benson ($5,200).
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – WR Evan Stewart (out)
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Cameron Dickey ($6,800) If there’s an area where the Oregon defense can be leaky, it is against the run, just as we saw vs. JMU where Wayne Knight rushed for 100+ yards. The Ducks are 31st in EPA per rush and 42nd in rush D success rate – both solid – but 109th in stuff rate so Oregon is rarely stopping RBs at or behind the line of scrimmage. Dickey has now scored a rushing touchdown in 10 of 13 games. FWIW, in the Texas Tech game preview, three of four writers predicted Dickey as the team’s offensive MVP for this matchup.
Fade – QB Behren Morton ($7,200) Dead last on the QB pecking order for me on the slate. Oregon allowed just 9 FPPG to quarterbacks in the regular season. Morton will not run with the threat of injury. And the Texas Tech offense is balanced, unlike Ty Simpson with Alabama who will be forced to throw.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. CFB DFS players this season know the drill with Texas Tech. No player has more than 21% of the team’s target share, while the top four pass-catchers between WR Caleb Douglas ($6,000), WR Reggie Virgil ($5,400), WR Coy Eakin ($4,500) and TE Terrance Carter Jr. ($4,700) each have between 5-7 touchdown receptions. Of the group, I lean towards spending up with Douglas who leads the team in every receiving category. Oregon is 82nd in explosive pass plays allowed, which could benefit Douglas who averages 15.7 YPC and a 13.0 aDOT which is most amongst the foursome.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. Indiana
- Point-Spread: IU -7
- O/U Total: 48
- Implied Score: IU 27.5 – Ala 20.5
- Weather: 63 degrees / 78% rain / 7 mph winds
Alabama:
Fade –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
