Louisville could decide this slate, and unfortunately, it’s one of the toughest offenses to decipher. The matchup screams rushing production, with North Carolina allowing 32+ FPPG to opposing backfields while Louisville has averaged eight yards per carry over its last two games. The problem? It’s essentially a three-way rushing attack between QB Lincoln Kienholz ($8,200), RB Isaac Brown ($6,400) and RB Keyjuan Brown ($5,600). We’re taking a stance and fading both running backs, particularly Isaac Brown, whose big-play dependency and limited volume create significant risk. UNC ranks 123rd in rush defense success rate but 24th in limiting explosive runs, which is Brown’s (Isaac) bread and butter.

Kienholz is the safest way to gain exposure, looking fully healthy with seven rushing touchdowns over his last four games and consecutive 30+ fantasy-point performances. Even then, he’s hardly a smash play at $8.2k against a North Carolina defense allowing just 15.4 FPPG to quarterbacks. The passing game presents another headache with WR LaWayne McCoy ($6,600) expected back this week from injury, creating a three-way target split alongside WR Tre Richardson ($7,200) and WR TreyShun Hurry ($4,700). Plenty of talent, but no clear priority at these salaries. Richardson has been awesome the last two games with just under 200 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns, but all came with McCoy out of the lineup.

North Carolina has largely been a two-man offense for DFS purposes, with WR Jordan Shipp ($6,000) and TE Jelani Thurman ($5,200) dominating the target share. We’re expanding our player pool this week, starting with RB Demon June ($5,400). June has scored in four of his last five games, logged double-digit carries in three of four and added seven receptions over the last three weeks. We project 14+ fantasy points against a middle-of-the-pack Louisville run defense, making him appropriately priced on DraftKings and an excellent value on FanDuel.

QB Billy Edwards ($6,600) has been sensational over the last two games, throwing for 600+ yards and seven touchdowns, including an impressive showing against Miami’s elite defense. Louisville is allowing 20.2 FPPG to quarterbacks, and we’d take that production for Edwards at this salary all day. All four UNC players are viable this week in some respect, but Thurman draws easily the best positional matchup against a Louisville defense allowing 14+ FPPG to tight ends. Thurman is listed as questionable, though all indications suggest he’ll play. Shipp has carried that same designation multiple times this season without missing action. Just more Bill Belichick injury-report shenanigans.

Two teams heading in opposite directions, with Minnesota dropping two straight while Penn State returns to Happy Valley riding consecutive victories. We have little confidence in the Gophers’ offense under the lights, especially considering they’re averaging just 19 PPG through six Big Ten matchups and trending downward. QB Drake Lindsey ($5,000) hasn’t reached 20 fantasy points in a game all season, and Penn State is allowing just 12.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Easy fade.

Penn State’s run defense is vulnerable, but Minnesota’s offensive line might be even worse. The Gophers rank 132nd nationally in stuff rate, 127th in power success and 137th in line yards. That makes RB Darius Taylor ($6,000) impossible to justify on DraftKings, though he’s a fringe consideration on FanDuel because of pricing.

The receiving corps isn’t much more appealing. Penn State allows just 22 combined FPPG to opposing wideouts and ranks third nationally in PFF coverage grade. If you’re absolutely determined to roster a Minnesota receiver, WR Noah Jennings ($4,200), WR Javon Tracy ($5,500) and WR Jalen Smith ($4,100) continue to play virtually every snap without rotation. The playing time is encouraging, but the matchup certainly isn’t.

All of a sudden, Penn State’s rushing attack has found some life, totaling 443 yards and five touchdowns over the last two games. RB Carson Hansen ($5,900) isn’t spectacular at 4.9 YPC, but he’s become a touchdown magnet, finding the end zone in five straight games while coming off a season-high 119 rushing yards against Washington. Watching the Nittany Lions bleed out the final six minutes against the Huskies on the ground was particularly encouraging. RB Cam Wallace ($5,000) has provided a spark of his own, rushing for 191 yards and scoring in both of the last two games. With Penn State approaching double-digit favorite status, we want exposure to at least one of these backs.

QB Rocco Becht ($6,800) is an easy fade in a matchup that offers little shootout potential. Minnesota allows just 16.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, and Penn State should be able to control this game on the ground. WR Chase Sowell ($6,700), however, has emerged as the alpha receiver we envisioned last season. With Koby Howard sidelined, Sowell has delivered consecutive 100-yard performances and three touchdowns over his last four games. At this point, he’s becoming matchup-proof regardless of game script. TE Andrew Rappleyea ($3,700) and TE Benjamin Brahmer ($3,900) are excellent spend-down options to still have exposure to the passing game. Brahmer has caught four passes in each of the last three games, while 25 of Rappleyea’s 30 catches the season have come in the last five games.