NUMBERS TO KNOW — AAC (Preview)

	Despite having mediocre to below-average quarterback play for most of last year, the UCF offense performed well in the first season under Gus Malzahn. The Knights scored 5.14 points per quality possession and were 21st nationally in offensive points scored per opportunity – third in the AAC behind Cincinnati and Houston. We’re expecting the arrival of transfer QB John Rhys Plumlee to unlock the offense.
	According to Pro Football Focus, Corey Kiner broke tackles on 30% of his rushing attempts last year at LSU. Assuming he wins the job, Kiner will be running behind an offensive line that helped Cincinnati running backs score the 20th-most fantasy points in CFF last season and brings back all five starters.
	No wide receiver has accounted for more than 25% of the target share in the three seasons of Mike Houston’s tenure as head coach. Conversely, the WR3 averages 17.5% of the team target share. Holton Ahlers likely will spread the wealth amongst his receivers, and with 41% of last year’s production gone, that feels even more certain.
	The 12.6% target share from Houston’s WR2 last season was the lowest under Dana Holgorsen in the last eight seasons. Yearly target share average in the seven years leading up to 2021 was 19.0%. However, Nathaniel Dell’s 32.5% target share last year was the highest of any WR under Holgorsen during that eight-year span. With KeSean Carter returning, along with the additions of freshman Matthew Golden and transfers Sam Brown (West Virginia) and Cody Jackson (Oklahoma), we expect the numbers to balance out a bit more.
	Fantasy owners will get a ‘steal’ if they can identify the player most likely to lockdown the RB1 spot this season between Jeyvon Ducker, Brandon Thomas or someone else. New OC Tim Cramsey typically leans on just one guy in the backfield, with his RB1 accounting for 45% of the volume share over the last six seasons. Between Brenden Knox and Rasheen Ali, they comprised 54% of Marshall’s rushing touchdowns the last three seasons with Cramsey calling plays.

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