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Ball State vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: Tenn -35.5
O/U Total: 68.5
Implied Score: Tenn 53 – Ball State 15.5
Weather: 90 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Ball St:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayshon Jackson ($4,600) Jackson was a target hog down the stretch in 2021 with 44 targets in the final three games alone, including 18 in the bowl game vs. Georgia State. Jackson now assumes the Justin Hall role in the slot full-time that has been quite profitable to us over the years. Quarterback play is a major question mark, but much of Jackson’s production comes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage so he should at least rack up plenty of PPR points this year.
Fade – RB Carson Steele ($5,500) The Tennessee run defense fell off last season once SEC play started, but dominated non-conference foes, limiting its first three opponents to under two yards per carry. The Vols should also be stout up the middle where defensive tackle and linebacker appear to be a strength on D. Steele will likely average north of 15 carries a game in 2022, but our interest in him will come during MACtion. Not on the road in the SEC.
Bargain Bin – WR Amir Abdur-Rahman ($3,800) Not advising playing Abdur-Rahman, but does have experience playing the Vols as a Vandy transfer. WR3 for Ball State has been productive in recent years, averaging four receptions on 6.1 targets per contest.
Pivot Play – QB John Paddock ($5,600) Can’t say that I’ve ever seen John Paddock throw a football if being honest with readers, but its not as though we have an extended sample size with all of 34 career pass attempts. Saw action in two games last season, including on the road at Penn State in garbage time, completing 70 percent of his passes. Tennessee returns three starters in the secondary, but finished dead last in the SEC in pass yards allowed per game.
Best of the Rest – WR Yo’Heinz Tyler ($4,900) Really a fade at his price as you’re not starting two Ball State receivers and Jackson is cheaper. Tyler is a talent, though, posting 49 receptions and six touchdowns on 89 targets as the third option last year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Hendon Hooker ($8,900) Designation could very well go to Cedric Tillman, but we’ll go to the conductor of the Vols’ offense in Hooker who averaged 27.3 FPPG last season after taking over the starting job in Week 3. Highest projected team total among FBS teams facing another FBS opponent, and you’d like to think Ball State, a bowl team a year ago, could provide at least some resistance to where Hooker plays at least three quarters.
Fade – RB Jaylen Wright ($5,100) RB2s in blowout situations like such can be rosterable pieces, but are we sure Wright is the backup with 4-star Justin Williams and utility back Dylan Sampson all in the mix. Heupel has preferred a rotation in the past, but Tennessee’s RB2 and RB3 each accounted for 14% of the volume share in 2021. You’d almost be better served rostering Sampson or Williams at far lower salary.
Bargain Bin – WR Bru McCoy ($4,000) From all accounts, McCoy has quite a bit of rust to shake off, but the 5-star talent is still there according to onlookers. Now eligible for the 2022 season, McCoy should start on the outside and slide in as the WR3 behind Tillman and Jalin Hyatt. WR3 for Tennessee accounted for just 10.3% of the target share last year, but that is an anomaly from what is typically expected from that position. That number was 17.3% in the four years prior to last under Heupel.
Pivot Play – WR Jalin Hyatt ($5,500) Tillman will get the most attention from Tennessee WRs as the alpha, and McCoy will be popular because of pricing, but don’t forget about Hyatt here. Nothing but positive buzz around Hyatt the entire offseason who seems to have transformed himself, adding 20 pounds to his frame while also maintaining his 4.4-speed. Early prediction is Hyatt has the least ownership percentage among Tennessee starting receivers.
Best of the Rest – WR Cedric Tillman ($8,500) is a given. Bonafide WR1 and one of the best in the nation. WR1 in this system has posted 1,000 receiving yards in five of the last six seasons. RB Jabari Small ($7,500) is the prototypical high floor / low ceiling play. Scored 25 or more fantasy points just twice last season and accounted for just 24% of the team’s rushing volume. Hooker will soak up some carries, along with the rotation that Heupel typically prefers with his system.
Injury Notes – n/a
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