Ball State vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: Tenn -35.5
O/U Total: 68.5
Implied Score: Tenn 53 – Ball State 15.5
Weather: 90 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Ball St:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayshon Jackson ($4,600) Jackson was a target hog down the stretch in 2021 with 44 targets in the final three games alone, including 18 in the bowl game vs. Georgia State. Jackson now assumes the Justin Hall role in the slot full-time that has been quite profitable to us over the years. Quarterback play is a major question mark, but much of Jackson’s production comes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage so he should at least rack up plenty of PPR points this year.
Fade – RB Carson Steele ($5,500) The Tennessee run defense fell off last season once SEC play started, but dominated non-conference foes, limiting its first three opponents to under two yards per carry. The Vols should also be stout up the middle where defensive tackle and linebacker appear to be a strength on D. Steele will likely average north of 15 carries a game in 2022, but our interest in him will come during MACtion. Not on the road in the SEC.
Bargain Bin – WR Amir Abdur-Rahman ($3,800) Not advising playing Abdur-Rahman, but does have experience playing the Vols as a Vandy transfer. WR3 for Ball State has been productive in recent years, averaging four receptions on 6.1 targets per contest.
Pivot Play – QB John Paddock ($5,600) Can’t say that I’ve ever seen John Paddock throw a football if being honest with readers, but its not as though we have an extended sample size with all of 34 career pass attempts. Saw action in two games last season, including on the road at Penn State in garbage time, completing 70 percent of his passes. Tennessee returns three starters in the secondary, but finished dead last in the SEC in pass yards allowed per game.
Best of the Rest – WR Yo’Heinz Tyler ($4,900) Really a fade at his price as you’re not starting two Ball State receivers and Jackson is cheaper. Tyler is a talent, though, posting 49 receptions and six touchdowns on 89 targets as the third option last year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Hendon Hooker ($8,900) Designation could very well go to Cedric Tillman, but we’ll go to the conductor of the Vols’ offense in Hooker who averaged 27.3 FPPG last season after taking over the starting job in Week 3. Highest projected team total among FBS teams facing another FBS opponent, and you’d like to think Ball State, a bowl team a year ago, could provide at least some resistance to where Hooker plays at least three quarters.
Fade – RB Jaylen Wright ($5,100) RB2s in blowout situations like such can be rosterable pieces, but are we sure Wright is the backup with 4-star Justin Williams and utility back Dylan Sampson all in the mix. Heupel has preferred a rotation in the past, but Tennessee’s RB2 and RB3 each accounted for 14% of the volume share in 2021. You’d almost be better served rostering Sampson or Williams at far lower salary.
Bargain Bin – WR Bru McCoy ($4,000) From all accounts, McCoy has quite a bit of rust to shake off, but the 5-star talent is still there according to onlookers. Now eligible for the 2022 season, McCoy should start on the outside and slide in as the WR3 behind Tillman and Jalin Hyatt. WR3 for Tennessee accounted for just 10.3% of the target share last year, but that is an anomaly from what is typically expected from that position. That number was 17.3% in the four years prior to last under Heupel.
Pivot Play – WR Jalin Hyatt ($5,500) Tillman will get the most attention from Tennessee WRs as the alpha, and McCoy will be popular because of pricing, but don’t forget about Hyatt here. Nothing but positive buzz around Hyatt the entire offseason who seems to have transformed himself, adding 20 pounds to his frame while also maintaining his 4.4-speed. Early prediction is Hyatt has the least ownership percentage among Tennessee starting receivers.
Best of the Rest – WR Cedric Tillman ($8,500) is a given. Bonafide WR1 and one of the best in the nation. WR1 in this system has posted 1,000 receiving yards in five of the last six seasons. RB Jabari Small ($7,500) is the prototypical high floor / low ceiling play. Scored 25 or more fantasy points just twice last season and accounted for just 24% of the team’s rushing volume. Hooker will soak up some carries, along with the rotation that Heupel typically prefers with his system.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OK State -22.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: OK State 41 – CMU 18.5
Weather: 89 degrees / 5% rain / 12 mph winds
Central Michigan:
Top Play(s) – n/a Don’t feel any need to jam a Central Michigan player into your lineups this week.
Fade – RB Lew Nichols ($7,000) Suppose DK was smart baking in the suppressed salary for Nichols at $7k to at least give fantasy players some pause about whether to roster him or not. Nichols did succeed last year against Missouri in the non-conference, but who didn’t run roughshod against that Tigers’ defense early in the year? His performance against LSU in Week 3 (12 carries / 18 yards) is the likelier outcome of the two possibilities in my opinion.
Bargain Bin – WR Carlos Carriere ($3,900) Oklahoma State’s starting cornerbacks run 6-foot and 5-foot-10, neither of which were starters a season ago. The former Maryland transfer will have a significant height advantage at 6-foot-5, and proved capable of producing last year when forced into the starting lineup for the Terps, including an 8-134-2 performance vs. Indiana. Daniel Richardson was at his best last year throwing the deep ball, with a 28.6% big time throw rate (according to PFF) beyond 20 yards or more. That’s where Carriere can thrive.
Pivot Play – QB Daniel Richardson ($5,100) Sits at a current projection of 17.44 fantasy points scored which, if I were a betting man, would say under. Richardson doesn’t run, loses his top two targets from a year ago, and scored a combined 12 fantasy points against Missouri and LSU last season. But, at that projection, he’s a somewhat realistic option at just $5,100. And we’ve already spoken about the turnover in the Oklahoma State secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Dallas Dixon ($4,700) likely steps into the vacated WR1 role, but is a vastly different player than Kalil Pimpleton who racked up 100+ targets in two of the last three seasons. Dixon’s production tapered off in the second half of last year, but did produce four games of 20+ fantasy points over the course of the season. TE Joel Wilson ($3,600) is an intriguing piece under new offensive coordinator Paul Petrino. His TE1 the last two seasons at Idaho averaged 14.3 FPPG, and Wilson proved capable last year with 31-367-6.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Dominic Richardson ($7,200) Mike Gundy has been adamant all offseason that they’ll lean on Richardson this season with the lack of depth at the position. Personal opinion – I’m not sure how much better Richardson will be than last year’s starter Jaylen Warren, if at all better, but we care about volume here. 18-20 carries is a lock here, making Richardson one of the highest floor plays of the entire slate.
Fade – WR Brennan Presley ($7,000) This is a CFF fade play here, admittedly. Pricewise, I’d much rather have Jaden Bray at $1,200 cheaper. We’ve said it all offseason – every Mike Gundy WR1 has played on the outside, not the slot. Presley finished last season on a high note with 10 receptions and over 100 receiving yards in the bowl game, and will be productive in this matchup, but historical trends suggest he should be the second option in this scheme.
Bargain Bin – WR Talyn Shettron ($3,000) The 4-star prospect is buried on the depth chart, but had a hell of a spring camp and looks to be the future star WR1 in coming years. Three touchdown favorite should present the freshman like Shettron with some second half opportunities to shine. Jaden Bray was a backup last year and had six catches with a touchdown in the first two weeks so it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Pivot Play – WR Braydon Johnson ($4,300) We’re on Jaden Bray operating as the WR1, but Johnson is a veteran that has been mentioned as having a strong fall camp after missing most of last season with a medical condition. The fastest receiver on the roster, there is a greater than zero chance Johnson has a shot at the WR1 job over Bray considering he’ll start opposite the sophomore on the outside. Week 1 hopefully provides us with plenty of clarity here.
Best of the Rest – QB Spencer Sanders ($7,800) Currently projects around 25 fantasy points for us, which gets the job done at his pricing. Central Michigan returns both of its starting cornerbacks from last year, but needs to find replacements at both safety spots. The Chips ranked 11th of 12 teams in th
e MAC in pass defense a year ago. WR Jaden Bray ($5,800) will be in most of my lineups as he’s our projected WR1 this season at a very reasonable price point.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Pitt -7.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Pitt 30 – WVU 21.5
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Kaden Prather ($5,000) Split opinions amongst CFF evaluators as to who becomes WR1 for West Virginia this season between Prather and Bryce Ford-Wheaton. Truth of the matter is both will be plenty valuable, so we’ll take the slight discount in the sophomore receiver. Standing 6-foot-3, Prather was the noticeable deep threat in West Virginia’s spring game, and best translates to the Michael Pittman-like role that we saw under offensive coordinator Graham Harrell back at USC.
Fade – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($5,500) Mathis is the clear-cut starter, but this is an Air Raid offense under Harrell. His RB1 during the last three years at USC averaged just 13.1 FPPG and 31.6% volume share. If there is one thing a Pat Narduzzi-led defense does well, it’s stop the run – ranking inside the top 15 nationally in the last three years.
Bargain Bin – WR Sam James ($4,500) Wildly inconsistent player but should see a healthy amount of targets coming out of the slot. Harrell rarely gets his tight ends or running backs involved much in the passing game, so the top three or four receivers can all have value. 19.5% target share for the USC WR3 in the last three seasons.
Pivot Play – WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton ($6,000) BFW is my vote to lead the team in receptions as he was heavily-targeted during the spring game. Whereas we comped Prather to Michael Pittman, we view Ford-Wheaton in the Tyler Vaughns role on the outside as a possession receiver. Should that play out as such, that sits at a 5.8 receptions per game average.
Best of the Rest – QB JT Daniels ($6,300) does face a pass defense that ranked 114th nationally in 2021, but it’s also a Pitt secondary that returns three starters. The receiving corps is good enough that this offense can succeed right out of the gate and will average north of 40 pass attempts per game this season. WR Reese Smith ($3,900) will start in the slot when WVU goes to 4-WR sets
Injury Notes – n/a
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,600) Won’t win you a GPP, but on a point per dollar basis, the sophomore tight end is my favorite play for the Panthers. New offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr loved throwing to the tight ends the last two seasons at Boston College where his TE1 combined for 122 targets in two years. Bartholomew is now the lone option at the position with Lucas Krull graduated.
Fade – QB Kedon Slovis ($6,000) Would simply rather spend the extra $100 here and have Aidan O’Connell as my quarterback. This will be a different offense under Cignetti, where Boston College ranked 81st and 104th, respectively, in Pace the last two years and were 107th in neutral game pass script. I also worry about Slovis’ health, consistently injured the past two seasons, and how he’ll hold up against a West Virginia defensive line that brings back three of their top four sack-getters. Cheap enough to consider as a S-Flex, but this offense won’t be throwing as much as 2021.
Bargain Bin – WR Bub Means ($3,900) All-name team in college football, Means is a Louisiana Tech transfer that averaged a whopping 19.5 yards per catch last season. Good size at 6-foot-2, Means’ advanced metrics really stick out, albeit in a limited sample size. aDOT of 17.5. 2.0 yards per route run. 164 of his 474 yards came after the catch, averaging 7.5 yards after the catch per reception. Those signal big-play threat, and you’d just need one to pay off his salary.
Pivot Play – RB Izzy Abanikanda ($6,100) Last year’s stats and usage rates will have casuals fading Abanikanda thinking this is the same offensive scheme. Mark Whipple’s RB1 averaged just 30.4% volume share the last two seasons as play-caller. That number jumps to 38.9% under Cignetti. Pitt has the depth with Rodney Hammond and Vincent Davis to where that number might not jump to typical Cignetti standards, but usage rates will assuredly go up for Abanikanda in 2022. Pitt also returns four starters along the offensive line, and the new starter played close to 400 snaps a year ago.
Best of the Rest – WR Konata Mumpfield ($6,600) We project the Akron transfer as Pitt’s new WR1, but don’t expect near the type of numbers Jordan Addison put up a year ago. He’s a fade for me given pricing and the surplus of wide receivers available at a lower cost on the Thursday slate. While we project Mumpfield as WR1, that’s not a certainty as returning starter Jared Wayne ($5,100) has had a solid offseason from all accounts and an experienced player with 86 receptions and eight touchdowns in his career.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina State vs. Central Florida
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 78 degrees / 76% rain / 12 mph winds
UCF:
Top Play(s) – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($7,400) In debating this game, I did think about Jordan Travis and how, in Florida State’s blowout victory, the Seminoles had three 100-yard rushers and Travis finished with just one touchdown. Does the same happen here with Plumlee in a matchup where UCF is a prohibitive favorite? Strictly conjecture, but I’m leaning towards no as UCF is looking to establish a different identity on offense with a dual-threat like JRP now under center. New face at quarterback, along with two new starting receivers looking to establish a rapport for the remainder of the season. JRP will be one of my most heavily owned QBs of the slate, and do not feel the need whatsoever to pair him with a UCF receiver.
Fade – WR Ryan O’Keefe ($7,600) Hinted at this with the Konata Mumpfield blurb above, but the middle-tier of wide receivers in this slate is very enticing so we’ll be fading many of the higher-priced options. Passing volume will go down here with JRP at quarterback to where we could very well see just 15 passes thrown on Thursday. Not say it won’t be an effective passing game vs. an FCS opponent, but volume won’t be there. That particularly effects O’Keefe who is a PPR machine, but averaged just 9.6 yards per reception last season. Not to mention the added weapons in the passing game with Kobe Hudson and Javon Baker who’ll undoubtedly attract targets.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Isaiah Bowser ($8,300) Volume will be low for Bowser, particularly now with JRP attracting carries unlike last year with Dillon Gabriel/Mikey Keene. But you’ll see referenced Bowser’s performance vs. Bethune-Cookman where he had just 12 carries, but resulted in four rushing touchdowns. Risky proposition to expect the same result on what is likely to be similar volume, but most DFS players will roster JRP over Bowser this week. Could be on the right side of the coin if Bowser ends up with the red-zone carries.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($7,100) probably finds the end-zone once, but will see even fewer targets than Ryan O’Keefe. He’s a fade as well. If rostering a UCF receiver, I’d much rather take the significant discount with Alabama transfer Javon Baker ($3,900) who is listed as a starter on the two-deep.
Injury Notes – n/a
Enough FBS options on the slate here where I’ll likely avoid any and all FCS players here. RB Kendrell Flowers ($5,100) is the big name of note for the Bulldogs, as the former Wake Forest transfer rushed for 835 yards and 10 touchdowns a year ago. Flowers was also a factor in the passing game with 24 receptions on 32 targets in 11 games. Two of the top pass-catchers return in WR Shaquan Davis ($4,800) and Richard Bailey ($3,800) with the former leading the team by a mile in touchdowns (8) and targets (43) in 2021. This is not a high volume passing offense, though, averaging just 30 att/g.
VMI vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – WR A.T. Perry ($8,000) Practice reports did suggest there was a notable drop-off with the passing game without Sam Hartman in the lineup, but Perry is a bonafide Top 10 wide receiver in all of college football. 125 targets last season, 73 of which came in the final six games alone. The decision here comes whether Perry can outproduce his $8k salary. Wake Forest was 29th in neutral game pass script a year ago, but that was with Hartman. We have a relative unknown now at QB, and considerable depth at the wide receiver position (more on that later). Last year against Norfolk State, Perry went for just 19 yards on two receptions.
Fade – RB Justice Ellison ($7,700) and RB Christian Turner ($6,600) Ellison is about $2k more than he should be listed at. Just once all of last season did a Wake Forest running back top 20 fantasy points. That happened to be Ellison, who is a good player and the clear-cut RB1, but this is a pass-happy scheme that likely won’t alter much with Sam Hartman out of the lineup. RB1s under Dave Clawson average just 13.6 carries per game, so Ellison will rotate with backup Christian Turner and Quinton Cooley. Turner is also a fade at his absurd pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Taylor Morin ($4,400) Practice reports suggest Mitch Griffis has a strong rapport with Morin, who shifted over to the slot this offseason to replace departed starter Jaquarii Roberson. Historical trends don’t always come to fruition, but there are 112 vacated targets in the slot. Since 2016 the starting slot receiver has either finished as the WR1 or WR2 in this system. That means Morin is likely set up for a nice year statistically.
Pivot Play – QB Mitch Griffis ($8,800) Probably won’t get a see a high ownership percentage given his salary but let’s consider the positives. Obviously, a favorable opponent. Arguably the best WR corps in the ACC and one of the best in the country. Four starters back on the OL. And again, a scheme that is top third in the country in pass rate in neutral situations.
Best of the Rest – WR Ke’Shawn Williams ($3,700) The sophomore receiver will share reps with Taylor Morin inside, and WF often utilizes 4-WR sets. Even the WR4 for Wake Forest averaged 4.75 targets per game last season. WR Donavon Greene ($6,100) has struggled with injuries for much of his career, but is said to be healthy and has a career 19.8 yards per catch average.
Injury Notes – QB Sam Hartman ($9,300) Hartman remains uncleared to return to practice and will not play.
Louisiana Tech vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: Mizzou -20.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Mizzou 40 – La Tech 19.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Tre Harris ($4,900) Sonny Cumbie is now the head coach of the Bulldogs, spending the last eight seasons as an OC with TCU and Texas Tech. In those eight seasons, EVERY SINGLE WR1 that he’s coached has played at the outside receiver spot. Harris finished second on the team in receptions (41) and targets (62) a year ago as a true freshman and had a season-high 12 targets in the finale vs. Rice. Can only go up from here, right?
Fade – RB Greg Garner ($5,200) The 223-pound junior is a name that we’ll need to remember later on in the season, but this is not a system to invest heavily in running backs. 18.9% volume share for the RB1 under Cumbie in the last two years. He also hasn’t produced a 1,000-yard rusher since 2016. I know the Missouri run defense was a gift from the heavens last year for fantasy running backs, but the Tigers overhauled their defensive staff and revamped the defensive front with numerous transfers.
Bargain Bin – QB Matthew Downing ($5,000) TBD on how good the Missouri secondary will but we’re getting around three projected touchdowns for Louisiana Tech on Thursday, and this is a scheme change to a version of the Air Raid under Cumbie. 39.1 pass attempts per game on average for a Cumbie-led offense over the last eight seasons. Downing is a former walk-on, but does have P5 experience after transferring over from TCU where he spent the last two seasons with Cumbie, so he knows the offense.
Pivot Play – WR Smoke Harris ($5,500) We know the historical trends on Cumbie offenses and outside receivers, but would we be shocked if Smoke Harris finishes the year as the leading pass-catcher? Absolutely not. Averaged 8.5 targets per game in 2021 with 71 receptions and six TDs. A higher-volume passing offense will benefit all of the receivers.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyle Maxwell ($3,200) The only other Louisiana Tech player I’d even remotely consider. Listed as the WR3 on the two-deep after catching nine passes as a freshman. WR3 under Cumbie averages just 30 receptions per season and 11.5% of the target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($6,700) Think Deebo Samuel, but a true freshman at Missouri. Wide receivers in this offense have been a complete non-factor the last two seasons, averaging just 15.5% target share, but that all changes in 2022. Even if those numbers don’t rise significantly, it’s been repeated all offseason that this offensive staff will find ways to get receivers the ball in their hands, even as an extension of the running game.
Fade – RB Nathaniel Peat ($6,500) The official injury report doesn’t have anyone listed that is doubtful or questionable, but Peat has missed time during camp with a soft tissue injury. We’re simply going to have to find out on Thursday night if Peat is full go or not because Eli Drinkwitz isn’t offering up any details beyond that. While we think Peat still ends up as the RB1 at some point this season, we’ll take a wait-and-see approach in Week 1.
Bargain Bin – RB Cody Schrader ($3,200) I’m probably one of like two people that cover CFF or DFS that subscribes to Missouri Rivals so you, the reader, can have the scoop. Elijah Young was listed atop the depth chart, but in the final public practice, it was Schrader taking first-team reps. Whether the first running back out there or the second, you’re not paying a hefty price for Schrader, a D-II running back from Truman State who rushed for 2,074 yards last season.
Pivot Play – QB Brady Cook ($7,700) The Tigers’ staff was in the market for a quarterback in the transfer portal this offseason to upgrade over Cook, so our confidence isn’t that high in the sophomore QB. But the fact of the matter is his last public appearance in a live game was very impressive, completing 80% of his passes and scoring 24.8 fantasy points in the bowl game vs. Army. Cook also has some wheels which adds to his value. Louisiana Tech ranked 11th in C-USA in scoring defense a year ago.
Best of the Rest – RB Elijah Young ($5,800) Must keep tabs on who is getting first-team reps during pregame warmups, because it was Young who was listed atop the depth chart. And we know how accurate those are (sarcasm). WR Dominic Lovett ($5,900) actually outperformed Burden in the spring game with 109 yards and a touchdown, looking equally as shifty.
Injury Notes – See above re Peat.
Penn State vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: PSU -3.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: PSU 28 – Purdue 24.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($5,600) If pricing were flipped and this was Parker Washington at $5.6k, I’d be rostering him over Tinsley here. Speaks to the fact that I don’t see a Jahan Dotson for Penn State this season that garners 30% of the target share. So, I’ll take the discount on Tinsley here and bank on the system where every WR1 under offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich has played on the boundary and not in the slot.
Fade – RB Keyvone Lee ($5,900) Teams whose running backs scored more fantasy points last season than Penn State – Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Colorado, Rutgers…the list goes on. The offensive line continues to fail this offense and will enter this season with just two returning starters, for better or worse. Lee will get the first carry, but if choosing to roster a Penn State running back, go with upside in the 5-star talent of Nick Singleton instead. Remember, TreVeyon Henderson didn’t start last year for Ohio State and look what happened in Week 1.
Bargain Bin – RB Nick Singleton ($4,700) See above. The message has been consistent in reading up on this matchup that Penn State is looking to establish the run on Thursday. RB coach JaJuan Seider has already stated that Singleton, along with another FR in Kaytron Allen, will see significant playing time vs. Purdue, stating they have the “it” factor to make a difference.
Pivot Play – QB Sean Clifford ($6,500) A total GPP pivot here as Clifford has an almost identical projection to Aidan O’Connell. While Penn State fans have been ready for years to move on from Clifford, fact remains that he’s still a productive quarterback from a statistical standpoint, averaging 21.6 FPPG last season and will now enter his second season under Yuricich.
Best of the Rest – WR Parker Washington ($6,500) Scheme favors Tinsley, but Parker Washington is the better player of the two and a longer standing connection with Clifford having played with him for three years now. Absolutely a scenario where Washington leads Penn State in receptions this season. TE Brenton Strange ($3,900) shares the tight end position with Theo Johnson ($3,500) which negates both player’s values.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – QB Aidan O’Connell ($6,100) Was there a better fantasy quarterback in the second half of last season than Aidan O’Connell? 30 or more fantasy points in six of the last eight games, including a pair of 500-yard performances. O’Connell gets the nod for me as the top play here as the safest option on the Purdue roster, I think this is a play to potentially pass on in larger GPPs as he’ll go over-owned because of his modest salary. At a 25.5 implied total with a totally revamped receiving corp, there’s a chance this Purdue passing game gets off to a slow start vs. a strong Penn State secondary.
Fade – RB King Doerue ($5,600) This is an easy one. Much rather roster Central Michigan transfer Kobe Lewis at min pricing, who might be the better player of the two. Regardless, running back is not a position of priority in the Purdue offense as no player scored more than 18 fantasy points in any game last season. RB1 averages just 12.2 carries per game under Jeff Brohm.
Bargain Bin – WR Charlie Jones ($3,900) It is *very* difficult for me to imagine that an Iowa and Buffalo transfer who has all of 39 career catches can suddenly become the WR1 for one of the most prolific pass offenses in the country…but here we are. No official depth chart, but there are whispers that Jones has been making plays in fall camp with one beat writer calling him the “No. 1 wide receiver that Purdue needs.” I don’t see it personally, but I’d be willing to spend $3,900 to see if it comes to fruition.
Pivot Play – WR Tyrone Tracy ($5,700) Not sure I’d exactly call Tracy a pivot play, but it’s in the salary range where I don’t think he’ll get a ton of ownership. He won’t be Rondale Moore like some envisioned earlier in the offseason when he transferred in, but can I offer you a souped up version of Jackson Anthrop? Tracy will see a handful of targets working out of the slot, but also in the backfield as he’s expected to see 3-5 carries per game as well. Scoring opportunities in a variety of ways is the perfect upside for a wide receiver in this salary range.
Best of the Rest – TE Payne Durham ($5,300) Boom or bust option that can get you 20+ fantasy points, as he did three times in 2021, or less than five fantasy points…as he did seven times last year. Not worth the investment at $5,300. RB Kobe Lewis ($3,000) could very well start ahead of Doerue on Thursday, but as of now, we don’t have confirmation of the RB pecking order.
Injury Notes – WR Broc Thompson ($5,400) If someone has a Purdue Rivals account, please hit me up and let me know the details on Thompson’s status for Thursday. According to Brohm, Thompson has been “handled with care” this fall camp and is supposedly ready to go for Thursday. And of course, we know college coaches are truthful 100% of the time, right?
Eastern Illinois vs. Northern Illinois
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Antario Brown ($5,000) If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you already knew this play was coming. Brown will be in 95% of my lineups at minimum now that he’s secured the RB1 job ahead of Harrison Waylee. The NIU run game will be just as dominant this year as it was in 2021, ranking fourth in the country in rush yards per game and four starters back along the offensive line. NIU running backs scored the seventh most fantasy points in the country and the Huskies’ offensive line was 19th in Line Yards created.
Fade – QB Rocky Lombardi ($8,100) Over / under on 15 passes attempted by Lombardi on Thursday? Doubt this matchup is in reach to the point NIU is forced to put the ball in the air, and the Huskies were 125th last season in neutral game pass script. They want to keep the ball on the ground, and the pricing is a bit to high here to consider the blonde bomber.
Bargain Bin – RB Mason Blakemore ($3,000) Remember Clint “the rat” Ratkovich and how he triggered so many of us in DFS by vulturing touchdown after touchdown last season? The 207-pound Blakemore isn’t the same player but is one that the staff has spoken highly of for much of the offseason, and should get looks as the third option in what is likely a blowout scenario. More than worthy of a dart throw.
Pivot Play – RB Harrison Waylee ($6,000) While I’m of the opinion Antario Brown is the better player, Waylee is no slouch himself as he averaged 114 YPG on the ground last season before an injury cut his year short. NIU had two or more running backs score double-digit fantasy points in 10 of 14 games played last season, so this is an offense where multiple backs can be productive.
Best of the Rest – WR Cole Tucker ($7,300) is now the default WR1 following the injury to Trayvon Rudolph who was lost for the season. Not as explosive as Rudolph, but Tucker was very productive the back half of last year, averaging nine targets per game in the last five contests. Florida International transfer WR Shemar Thornton ($4,200) steps into the vacated WR2 role that we have projected at 47 receptions this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico State vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -36.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Minn 44.5 – NMSU 8
Weather: 80 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
New Mexico State:
Top Play(s) – n/a We’re not advocating rostering anyone from a team with an implied team total of 9.5.
Fade – Yes.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordin Parker ($3,000) The walk-on slot receiver posted 4-59-0 on eight targets, which was second on the team last week. Parker is probably min priced still because he only played on half of the team’s offensive snaps, splitting time with Jonathan Brady.
Pivot Play – WR Kordell David ($3,700) Wrote up the JUCO transfer last week in our DFS writeup and David wound up leading the team with 7-56-1 on 11 targets.
Best of the Rest – QB Gavin Frakes ($4,700) I had stopped watching this game prior to Frakes taking over at quarterback, but the game log suggests he did some good things, throwing for 143 yards and a touchdown. Don’t believe a starter has been announced for Thursday, but difficult to imagine it’s not Frakes getting the nod.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Autman-Bell ($6,300) Plenty of optimism that offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca can get this offense, specifically through the air, back to 2019 levels where Tanner Morgan tossed 30 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Should that happen, Autman-Bell should be in for a breakout season as Ciarrocca’s WR1s have averaged close to 70 receptions per year.
Fade – RB Mohamed Ibrahim ($9,500) Simply put, too expensive for what the expected workload is. Even in a competitive matchup, the message all offseason has been that Trey Potts will get a significant amount of carries this year and the staff won’t rely on Ibrahim like they did back in 2020 where he averaged 30 attempts a game. 12-15 carries is the max we see Ibrahim on Thursday.
Bargain Bin – WR Dylan Wright ($3,800) Physically, Wright is the most imposing Minnesota wide receiver of the bunch at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, and preseason reports suggest he’s been the secondary target behind WR1 Chris Autman-Bell. Should that turn out to be the case, the WR2 under offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca (now back at Minnesota) averages 4.5 receptions on 6.8 targets per game over the last eight seasons. Good enough for me at his pricing, where Wright will have a significant edge physically over NMSU defensive backs.
Pivot Play – TE Brevyn Spann-Ford ($4,200) What have Minnesota tight ends done since P.J. Fleck arrived in Minneapolis, you ask? Oh, just a combined 64 catches over a five year span. That’s a combined 12 catches per season at the position. Yet, there seems to be some confidence in the senior tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford this season, with one beat writer going out on a limb saying that a 40-catch year is in the realm of possibilities. I’m not banking on that, but BSF looks to be the third option in the passing game right now behind CAB and Wright.
Best of the Rest – RB Trey Potts ($5,400) I’d rather take the discounted rate this week with Potts over Ibrahim’s inflated pricing given that we’re likely looking at a 55-45 split this season, and might even be 50-50 in this matchup as both players get acclimated after missing most of the 2021 season. Would wager good money that both Ibrahim and Potts find the end-zone vs. NMSU.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northern Arizona vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: ASU -25.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ASU 38 – N. Ariz 12.5
Weather: 100 degrees / 5% rain / 5 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – QB Emory Jones ($8,400) Who knows how good this offense will be vs. a real opponent given all the turnover and controversy surrounding the program this offseason. The Sun Devils return just 44% of last year’s offensive production which is 117th nationally. But I am intrigued by Jones this week as a dual-threat in a situation where Arizona State is expected to score 38 points. There are question marks at the other skill positions, and we know Jones is going to have the ball in his hands as both a passer and runner.
Fade – Andre Johnson ($7,700) L-O-L. Does DraftKings think this is the Andre Johnson that played for a decade in the NFL? Can someone explain to me why Johnson’s pricing is this high, and why he’s even being listed on sportsbooks at all for weekly props? Finished seventh on the team in targets a year ago and is in a battle with Bryan Thompson for a starting job according to the official depth chart. FWIW, Johnson is working with the first-team offense in practice the last two weeks, so we expect him to start, but absolutely fade at this price.
Bargain Bin – WR Giovanni Sanders ($3,300) Admittedly have never seen Sanders play live before, but is the lowest priced starting ASU receiver by a country mile. Sanders does not have a single career reception at the FBS level, but has been working consistently in the slot with the first-team offense for the entirety of fall camp.
Pivot Play – RB Xazavian Valladay ($6,200) Not sure this is a pivot play, but some will be tentative to roster Valladay given Emory Jones is likely to see carries, along with backup Daniyel Ngata. But new OC Glenn Thomas has a history of feeding his RB1, as we saw last year with Charles Williams at UNLV, and there have been comments made by the staff of Valladay being a potential workhorse in 2022. Valladay has been given all of the RB1 reps in camp.
Best of the Rest – RB Daniyel Ngata ($4,900) should get 10-12 touches in this blowout scenario. WR Elijah Badger ($6,200) has seen the most first-team practice reps of any Arizona State wide receiver this offseason. Former 4-star talent that has had some off-field concerns but could be in line for a breakout year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cal Poly vs. Fresno State:
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jake Haener ($9,100) These two teams played a year ago around this time and Haener was the star with 380 passing yards and four touchdowns en route to 63-10 blowout. Starters actually played a decent amount, but the Bulldogs only ran 44 plays so volume was considerably lower than normal all around. With heavy rotations likely at both WR and RB, I’ll lean with the conductor of the offense as the top play in Haener who is guaranteed to touch the ball.
Fade – The Stars Anyone else envision a scenario where WR Jalen Cropper ($8,300) and RB Jordan Mims ($7,900) get a first quarter touchdown and the pads come off? Fresno State has considerable depth at the WR position where the second-stringers could start on a lot of teams in the Mountain West. Cropper posted 5-70-1 in last year’s matchup, playing just 28 offensive snaps. Less depth at running back behind future star Jordan Mims, so the Bulldogs would be better served allowing Mims getting a few reps before putting him in bubble wrap.
Bargain Bin – n/a Should see heavy rotations, but all of the backup options for Fresno State here are between $3,900 – $5,200. Not cheap enough to play guessing game.
Pivot Play – WR Josh Kelly ($6,800) Kelly is often overshadowed by Cropper, but a talented WR in his own right, finishing last season with 52 receptions and three scores on 82 targets. Two of those touchdowns came against this same Cal Poly school.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
FCS:
Enough FBS options on the slate here where I’ll likely avoid any and all FCS players here. With three more slates to write up this weekend, we’re going to safe some time and bypass any research.
