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South Carolina vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -8.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Ark 30.5 – USC 22
Weather: 79 degrees / 5% rain / 4 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – TE Jaheim Bell ($3,500) Ultimate Swiss army knife in college football. Four receptions on four targets. Was tied for second on the team in carries (7) for 30 yards. Movement skills like a receiver. Only player that might touch the ball more on the South Carolina offense this season is the quarterback.
Fade – WR Josh Vann ($6,400) Last year’s WR1 out of favor in the wide receiver rotation? Fifth most snaps among South Carolina receivers and caught just one pass on four targets. OC Marcus Satterfield hasn’t had a WR with over 29% target share in the last four seasons. Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – WR Antwane Wells ($4,900) Was not a listed starter, but the former James Madison transfer posted seven receptions on eight targets (team high), while also leading the Gamecocks’ receivers in snaps played. As an 8.5-point underdog on a team that averaged 2.47 YPC against Georgia State, South Carolina is going to have to throw the ball.
Pivot Play – QB Spencer Rattler ($5,900) If you followed along with us during the CFF offseason, we are not fans of offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield. Personnel is there for this USC offense to be dynamic, and yet it hasn’t been in the last 13 games.
Best of the Rest – RB Marshawn Lloyd ($5,500) South Carolina ran for just 88 yards on 28 carries (3.1 YPC) as a team, with Lloyd receiving just 11 attempts. Did show his versatility as a receiver with four targets and a receiving touchdown, giving him a solid projection this week of 16 fantasy points. Not someone you’re targeting heavily, though, given USC’s struggles to block. WR Jalen Brooks ($4,800) played the second most snaps behind Wells at wide receiver, converting on all four of his targets for 88 yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB K.J. Jefferson ($7,400) Highest projection by a considerable margin of any Arkansas player, yet very reasonable price point. Jefferson was extremely efficient vs. Cincinnati, completing 70% of his throws for 223 yards and three scores, while adding 81 yards and a TD on 12 carries. Really did not test the Bearcats downfield at all last week with an aDOT of just 7.5 – we’ll see if that changes against the Gamecocks who have two very experienced safeties in their secondary and a future NFL draft pick at corner.
Fade – Warren Thompson ($5,000) Thompson played nearly equal offensive snaps to Matt Landers yet was only target three times for minimal yards against the Bearcats. The former Florida State transfer appears to now be the fourth option in the passing game behind Jadon Haselwood, Landers and tight end Trey Knox.
Bargain Bin – WR Matt Landers ($3,900) Doubt that South Carolina is going to let Jefferson complete 69% of his throws again this week, so we’ll likely see the Arkansas passing game take a few more deep shots. Quiet day for the former Toledo transfer last week, but caught three passes on four targets and his 15.3 aDOT was significantly higher than any other Razorback player. As mentioned above, he played more than everyone else as well.
Pivot Play – RB Raheim Sanders ($7,900) DK screwed up pricing again this week so you’re probably going to see less than 1% ownership with Sanders as the second-highest priced RB on the slate. Now add in the fact that Dom Johnson could be back this week, and the position coach stated he wants to see more of A.J. Green and Rashad Dubinion moving forward. Just coach-speak? If rostering Sanders, you’re hoping he and KJ Jefferson handle 85% of the workload on the ground as they did against the Bearcats with minimal intervention from someone else. Don’t forget either that South Carolina gave up 200 yards rushing and allowed 5.0 YPC to Georgia State last Saturday.
Best of the Rest – TE Trey Knox ($4,100) Transition to tight end worked out well for the former 4-star receiver. Knox played the second-most snaps of any skill position player not named KJ Jefferson and led the Razorbacks with six receptions on seven targets.
Injury Notes – RB Dominique Johnson ($6,000) was in full pads in practice this week without the green jersey meaning he was full-go. Unplayable at $6k, but curious to see how Rocket Sanders’ reps are affected.
Missouri vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -7.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: KSU 31.5 – Mizzou 24
Weather: 78 degrees / 10% rain / 12 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($5,900) Coaches hinted most of the offseason that they wanted to feature wide receivers in the running game, specifically their 5-star freshman, and did exactly that as Burden had six total touches with two scores in the win over Louisiana Tech. Second most targets (7) and third most offensive snaps amongst the skill position players. We know that Burden is going to touch the ball 5+ times every week, or that’ll at least be the goal coming in.
Fade – RB Elijah Young ($6,600) Totally makes sense that Elijah Young, Missouri’s RB3, is priced ahead of Chase Brown and Brad Roberts. C’mon DraftKings. Young saw just eight snaps in a blowout situation, and it was not because Missouri rested their starters.
Bargain Bin – WR Dominic Lovett ($4,800) We always highlight the 5-star freshman, but Lovett has impressed since all offseason since he topped 100 receiving yards in the spring game. The forgotten man it seems, Lovett was hyper-efficient with his 35 offensive snaps, leading the Tigers with six receptions on eight targets. At some point, the sophomore receiver needs to see more playing time over the likes of Tauskie Dove.
Pivot Play – RB Nathaniel Peat ($5,900) We posted in the CFF Site Discord some notes from the Missouri Rivals site that indicated they felt Peat was the best running back on the field against Louisiana Tech despite just seeing eight carries. Still wound up rushing for 72 yards and a score. The soft tissue injury that occurred in fall camp seems to be behind Peat, and he should ascend to the top of the depth chart at some point.
Best of the Rest – WR Tauskie Dove ($3,700) Dove was a popular under prop play last week, but he’s cheap enough to where we have to consider given his involvement in the offense. Just three targets for minimal yardage, but played the most offensive snaps of any wide receiver on the team. I would not discount QB Brady Cook ($5,800). All he’s done is post 20+ fantasy points in his last two starts – projected to top that mark again this week – and rushed for 50 or more yards in both games. Punting both at the QB and Sflex an option?
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,600) Vaughn faces what was the 124th ranked rush defense a year ago. In a dramatic turn of events, after just one week the Tigers are ranked No. 1 in the country as they allowed just eight yards on the ground to Louisiana Tech. Sign of things to come or a mirage? Nine of Kansas State’s 15 highest-rated offensive players are linemen, and HC Eli Drinkwitz believes the OL is K-State’s best positional group.
Fade – Everyone not named Vaughn or Martinez The Kansas State offense will revolve around Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez if past history is any indication. Vaughn accounted for 53.8% volume share in the Wildcats’ backfield a season ago and led the team in target share. In four of the last five seasons, the Kansas State quarterback was second on the team in rushing attempts, which assuredly will happen again in 2022 with Martinez now at the helm.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Malik Knowles ($4,800) Longshot play at best. Knowles was targeted three time vs. South Dakota, averaging just 4.7 yards per reception. Unusual for an explosive player like Knowles who’s averaged 14.1 YPC over his career. The senior receiver made his presence felt, though, with a 75-yard touchdown run – the second of his career.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a