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Missouri vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UF -10.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: UF 32.5 – Mizzou 22
Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Dominic Lovett ($3,800) HC Eli Drinkwitz called Lovett 50-50 to play on Saturday with a lower leg injury. Team leader in receptions, targets, yards per route run and yards per reception. And it’s really not that close between Lovett and the WR2 Luther Burden.
Fade – QB Brady Cook ($5,700) If Brady Cook is not getting us rushing yardage, he is not a fantasy asset. And in two SEC matchups, he has -12 yards on 14 attempts. We’re never playing Cook in a main slate like this, and I will fade him completely but I do want to throw this out there in his defense for this matchup in particular. Hendon Hooker – 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Gerry Bohanon – 100 yards on the ground. Cam Rising – 60 yards and a TD on the ground. Dual-threat QBs have gashed the Gators this season so far.
Bargain Bin – WR Barrett Banister ($3,500) There aren’t many trustworthy Missouri receivers beyond Lovett that can get open consistently this year. Banister might be the other, ranked third on the team with 14 receptions on 22 targets. Issue with Banister is his 6.9 aDOT and 1.22 yards per route run. He’ll get your PPR points, but his receptions don’t go for any yardage.
Pivot Play – RBs. I’d probably still favor Nathaniel Peat over Cody Schrader here as he’s on the field more, but both options “might” be viable against this Florida run defense that is 113th in the country. The Gators not being able to stop opposing QBs from running the ball has played a major role in that, but Florida is also allowing 19.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s with Jabari Small, Brian Battie and Tavion Thomas all having big outings against this defense.
Best of the Rest – WR Luther Burden ($5,100) The 5-star freshman is on the field plenty, is second in targets and total routes, but he gains less yardage than even Barrett Banister at 0.83 yards per route run. Value goes up if Lovett does not end up playing, but has really done little this season to justify playing him at this salary.
Injury Notes – See above on Lovett.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Richardson ($6,800) Sundays are my recovery days from the weekend so I didn’t watch a single second of Florida’s beatdown of Eastern Washington. But Anthony Richardson appears to have turned a slight corner since his season-low performance against USF a few weeks back. Back-to-back 200 yard passing games for the first time in his career. 800 total yards and six total touchdowns in the last two weeks. Florida averaged 630 total yards of offense in that span. Missouri has fared well against opposing QBs, allowing just 16.7 FPPG, but there aren’t many fantasy-relevant options for the Gators outside of Richardson.
Fade – Montrell Johnson ($6,300) All you have to do here is look at the Tennessee box score. Montrell Johnson is the best running back (right now) in the room. But there is a three-way split for carries, and the staff does not seem destined to cut back on Nay’Quan Wright’s ($3,600) attempts – even though they should. So, if you want a Florida running back, grab a bargain with Trevor Etienne ($4,000) or even Wright because they’re getting similar workloads.
Bargain Bin – Nay’Quan Wright ($3,600) See above. This coaching staff is insistent on getting Wright snaps each week, seeing between 6-8 rushing attempts too. Production isn’t always there, but this is close to what you can ask for from a $3.6k player in Week 6.
Pivot Play – WR Justin Shorter ($4,000) The former 5-star caught just one pass against Eastern Washington, but that was all that was needed as he went 75-yards for a touchdown. Trending upwards the last few weeks where he was targeted a season-high 12 times against Tennessee the game prior. We don’t normally care about Florida receivers, but Shorter is cheap enough to where I think we can consider pairing possibly with Richardson (not necessary to stack).
Best of the Rest – Xzavier Henderson ($5,400) Would much rather roster Shorter at $1.4k less, but Henderson has been the most consistent of the Florida pass-catchers with a team-high 20 receptions, and second in both targets (28) and second in routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee vs. LSU
Point-Spread: Tenn -2.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Tenn 33 – LSU 30.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Hendon Hooker ($8,100) Analytically, the LSU pass defense ranks very highly. But then you see the Tigers giving up 337 yards and two touchdowns to Robby Ashford, and your concerns about fading Hendon Hooker go away. 16th in pass play success rate, but LSU is also 119th in pass explosiveness. Bad news when facing Hooker and this passing scheme that is third nationally in yards per attempt.
Fade – RB Jaylen Wright ($4,900) Wright has surpassed my expectations this season, holding down the No. 2 job over some talented FR and averaging close to five yards a carry. But much of his production has come either in garbage time or in the matchup against Akron where we didn’t see Jabari Small due to injury.
Bargain Bin – WR Ramel Keyton ($3,800) Keyton is a distant third in the pecking order of options in the passing game, but will start in place of Cedric Tillman Saturday. Was targeted just three times against Florida but ran the same amount of routes as both Jalin Hyatt and Bru McCoy so he’s seeing 100% of the reps at Tillman’s spot with no rotation.
Pivot Play – WR Bru McCoy ($5,700) We mentioned it above, but the best part about the Tennessee WR situation without Tillman is we’re see absolutely zero rotation between the starters and backups. McCoy, Keyton and Jalin Hyatt ($6,800) played 89% or more of the offensive snaps against Florida two weeks ago, and would expect a similar situation versus LSU with a spread of 2.5. McCoy actually led the team with 102 yards on seven targets in the win over the Gators, averaging 20.4 yards per reception and 2.83 yards per route run. This isn’t a double-stack situation with both Hyatt and McCoy in a lineup with Hooker, but I’d like to get one of the two at least.
Best of the Rest – RB Jabari Small ($6,400) Small is probably closer to a fade than a play here for me. LSU is giving up the seventh fewest FPPG to opposing running backs this season and are fourth in the SEC in overall run defense. Small hasn’t been overly impressive, averaging a yard less per carry than he did a year ago, though he is finding the end-zone with four rushing TDs.
Injury Notes – WR Cedric Tillman ($6,900) Reports coming out this week seem to indicate that we could see Tillman return to the field prior to his originally-scheduled timeline but is deemed “questionable at best” this week. Strong lean towards Tillman not playing – if that wasn’t already a guarantee.
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($7,300) Oh boy, here we go. Player’s only meetings being held between Daniels and his WRs trying to get on the same page. Talk has been consistent all week long. LSU needs to push the ball further down field and utilize its playmakers on the outside as the Tigers rank 12th of 14 SEC teams in yards per attempt. Daniels’ 6.9 yards per attempt and 7.0 aDOT is worst among SEC starting quarterbacks. That’ll have to change against Tennessee to keep up on the scoreboard, and the secondary is where the Vols are most vulnerable.
Fade – RB John Emery Jr. ($4,800) Most expensive running back in a RBBC that saw the least amount of offensive snaps last week of the three options against Auburn. The undoubted strength of the Tennessee defense is stopping the run, ranking 36th in rush play success rate, 12th in explosiveness and giving up just 12.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Bargain Bin – RB Josh Williams ($3,000) I find coach’s quotes to be hilarious sometimes. Brian Kelly states that Josh Williams “has been kind of the guy for us” yet last week was the first time we saw him get more than five carries in a game. Only rushed for 68 yards against Auburn but did see 17 rushing attempts. Any running back getting double-digit carries at min pricing is going to be on the radar, though expect both Noah Cain and John Emery to be a factor still.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Nabers ($5,300) Nabers continues to pace the WR group, ranking first in targets (31), first in catches (22) and averaging 2.10 yards per route run which is almost double his counterpart Kayshon Boutte ($4,800). Talk has been very loud this week about the LSU passing game and the need for improvements, so I’m very curious to see how this matchup transpires. WR1s are averaging 18.6 FPPG this season against the Vols. LSU has to exploit the back seven of the Tennessee defense.
Best of the Rest – TE Mason Taylor ($3,000) This min priced play is a longer shot than Josh Williams so I’d refrain from doing this unless in a dire situation of roster construction. Tight ends were always an integral part of Mike Denbrock’s offensive system at Cincinnati, we just thought it would be Jack Bech instead. 17 of Taylor’s 23 targets this season have come in the last three weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
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