Iowa @ Maryland
Point-Spread: Iowa -3
O/U Total: 48
Weather: 82 degrees / 13% rain / 15 mph winds
Iowa:
If there is a matchup on this 3-game slate that I’ll have the least exposure to, this is it. Tyler Goodson is averaging around 23 touches a game through the first month, up from 19 a year ago, but the offensive line is doing him no favors, ranking 121st nationally in Line Yards and 127th in Stuff Rate. We’ve seen a few more holes poked in the Maryland run defense the last two games, and the Terps could be without a starter or two this week at linebacker, but still a group that is allowing just 3.34 yards per carry on the year. Junior quarterback Spencer Petras has looked improved since last season, upping his completion percentage to 60 percent with just one interception through the first month. Still hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points in any week yet this season, and a road spot against an undefeated team seems unlikely to break that threshold (by a significant amount at least).
The Hawkeyes seemed to take a few more deep shots last week against CSU utilizing play-action, including a beautiful pass from Petras to star freshman Keagan Johnson that resulted in a 43-yard score. Johnson’s snap counts are still very low – around 10 a game – and has just four targets all year. Tight end Sam LaPorta continues to be a big presence in the passing game with 17 receptions and two touchdowns, tied for seventh most among tight ends in the country. Maryland has allowed just 1.1 total fantasy points to opposing tight ends all season, but that includes three teams in Illinois, West Virginia and Kent State who don’t utilize the position much in their offensive scheme. If that trend continues after this week? Start to take notice. Where in the world has Tyrone Tracy Jr. been? Played 44 of 56 snaps against Colorado State without a single target. Appears to be splitting time at the moment with former Buffalo transfer Charlie Jones, though he hasn’t been particularly active in the pass game either with just four catches on nine targets. Nico Ragaini has as many targets as Goodson does with 12 with an aDOT of just 9.2. Low-upside option.
Maryland:
The Terrapins’ offense has improved significantly since last season, averaging well over 500 yards per game, including 526 yards last Saturday in a 37-16 win over Kent State. Junior quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa continued his sweltering start to the year against the Flashes, completing 75 percent of his throw for 384 yards and three touchdowns, and has even been generating some Heisman Trophy talks with three 300-yard passing performances in four games. If this were last year, the Hawkeyes’ ball-hawking defense (+5 turnover margin) would hold a significant advantage, but Tagovailoa seems to have shored up those issues that plagued him as a sophomore with just one interception through the first month. Don’t love the matchup, though, against an Iowa defense that is 20th in Pass Play Success Rate.
While the accolades have gone to Tagovailoa and this passing attack, senior running back Tayon Fleet-Davis continues to provide balance on offense, averaging over seven yards a carry and already has 14 catches in four games out of the backfield. Tough sledding on Friday night against an Iowa defense that has yet to allow 100 yards in a game all season, and has held both Kent State and Colorado State to under two yards a carry in recent weeks. Pass-catching ability keeps him in the realm of possibilities, but I prefer cheaper options with better matchups.
Last week was a struggle for Maryland receivers who were credited with a season-high seven drops. Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus continue to dominate the target share (39 percent) and combine to average over 170 receiving yards per game with six of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Strange decision by DK with a $1,900 pricing discrepancy despite Demus having just four more targets on the year. Jeshaun Jones was listed in an OR situation with Darryl Jones last week, but has been the bigger factor in the passing game with 13 targets over the last two games. Jones (Darryl) has seen the field frequently, though, with nine targets in that same span. Brian Jones is a rotational player that has played just 19 percent of game snaps available. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 6.2 FPPG to opposing tight ends, and that includes both Charlie Kolar and Trey McBride. TE1 Chigoziem Okonkwo has just nine targets on the year, but had a season high 4-44-0 on five targets last week.
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