Tulane @ SMU
Point-Spread: SMU -13.5
O/U Total: 70.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 11% rain / 7 mph winds
Tulane:
You can look at one statistic to see why Tulane is sitting where they are in the standings – turnovers. In just six games, the Green Wave have already turned the ball over more (15) than they did all of last season (14) in a full 12-game season. Unfortunately, second-year quarterback Michael Pratt has been the source of 10 of them with five interceptions and credited with five fumbles according to Pro Football Focus. Pratt has thrown 13 touchdowns through six games, on pace to surpass last year’s totals, and is up to 227.3 yards per game under new offensive coordinator Chip Long. A weapon with his legs last season, Pratt has just 69 yards on 66 attempts on the ground in 2021 after averaging nearly 23 yards a game rushing last year. QBs have found success at time against SMU this season, averaging 26.7 FPPG and are 74th in Pass Play Success Rate.
After leading the conference in rushing in 2020, Tulane now sits ninth in the AAC at just 140 yards per game on the ground. A true threat hasn’t emerged in the backfield as Tulane has rotated between Cameron Carroll, Tyjae Spears and Ygenio Booker for much of the season, but the offensive line has been the cause for the struggles running the football. The Wave are 103rd in Stuff Rate, 109th in Line Yards and 96th in Rush Play Success Rate this season, according to CollegeFootballData.com. SMU has allowed just five rushing touchdowns in 2021 – the best mark in the AAC. Don’t feel the need to roster any of them with a negative game script as a near two-touchdown dog.
Deuce Watts didn’t play a single snap in Week 6 vs. Houston, with the team’s SB Nation site tweeting out that he was on crutches on the sidelines. Of course, no mention of it from the Tulane beat writer in the main New Orleans newspaper so maybe we can get an edge there as he doesn’t have an injury tag on DK. If Deuce is out, primary receivers look to be Shae Wyatt, Jaetavian Toles and Phat Watts who combined to play 77 percent of the snaps vs. Houston. Wyatt led the way with five receptions on eight targets. Tight end Tyrick James has been the most consistent pass-catcher in this dismal season, leading the team in targets (29), receptions (22) and touchdowns (3).
SMU:
It’s been a seamless transition at quarterback for the Mustangs from last year’s starter Shane Buechele to Tanner Mordecai who is tied for first in the country in touchdown passes thrown (26) in just six games, averaging over 315 yards a contest. Don’t mind spending up for Mordecai as he’s topped 30 fantasy points in five of the six games played this season, and a favorable matchup as Tulane is allowing the second-most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks in the country. Helps when you have one of the best wide receiver corps in the country with Danny Gray, Reggie Roberson and Rashee Rice who have combined for 64 percent of the team’s production and 17 total touchdowns between them. I can understand why Roberson is the highest-priced of the three given that he’s scored a touchdown in each of the last four games, but is third amongst the trio in targets and total TDs. The portal also benefitted SMU at the tight end position where former Oklahoma transfer Grant Calcaterra is fourth on the team with 19 receptions and three scores.
A pregame storyline to monitor will be the injury status of starting running back Ulysses Bentley IV who sat out against South Florida in Week 5 and was then limited to just two carries the following week vs. Navy. According to 247Sports beat writer Bill Embody, neither Bentley nor receiver Jordan Kerley practiced last week during the bye, but neither player was seen with a brace or sleeve either. Should Bentley be unavailable or limited (do they even need him vs. Tulane?), former North Texas transfer Tre Siggers has filled in admirably with a rushing touchdown in each of the last two games. Regardless of who starts in the backfield, SMU should find success against a Tulane rush defense that is 10th in the conference, allowing 197 yards per game on the ground and 16 rushing scores.
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