Cincinnati @ South Florida
Point-Spread: Cin -23.5
O/U Total: 57
Weather: 72 degrees / 13% rain / 7 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Injuries to monitor here with Jerome Ford leaving the contest last week against Tulsa with a foot injury. Peering around some of the boards, it sounds as though Ford was being held out in the second half for mostly precautionary reasons and reporters even saw him walking down the hallway following the game. Assume he should be good to go, but we’ll have to monitor pregame. Ryan Montgomery took the majority of the RB snaps in Ford’s place, rushing for 36 yards on six carries. Montgomery must be in play here at min pricing even if Ford plays as we don’t know for certain if he’s 100 percent and the 23.5-point spread which should indicate backups will see the field at some point. I’ll also suggest Charles McClelland as a possible pivot to Montgomery. I’d side with the former given how Montgomery looked last week, but I don’t think Cincy actually as a solidified RB2 so both could see carries Friday. USF is allowing 21.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are giving up nearly six yards per carry this season.
If Ford is limited, might we also see Desmond Ridder run the ball a bit more on Friday? That was the theme last year during the final stretch run and now Ridder has gone over his seasonal averages with 13 and 12 rushing attempts over the last two games. Ridder is a lock regardless for me in this slate, but the Ford uncertainty adds to that. USF is 127th in Pass Play Success Rate, but 23rd in Explosiveness so the backend typically does a good job at limiting the big play. Still allowing 29.8 FPPG on the season so Ridder should have a good day statistically. We’ve covered the receivers extensively here this season – Alec Pierce and tight end Josh Whyle are the top options with nine of the team’s 21 receiving touchdowns, with Michael Young, Tre Tucker and Tyler Scott all in the mix. Talented redshirt freshman Jadon Thompson saw a bit of work last week as well, with three catches on three targets. Not a necessity to roster any of this group and can play Ridder naked in your lineups.
South Florida:
Offense wasn’t the issue for USF last week in the 54-42 loss to Houston, and it really hasn’t been the problem for much of the year. Defensively, the Bulls are atrocious. But Jeff Scott is really starting to put his stamp on this offense with some building blocks for the future. That starts with QB Timmy McClain who threw for a career-high 289 yards and three total touchdowns. Some compare him to former USF stud Quinton Flowers and is one to watch in future seasons. While his running ability keeps him in play, I’ll probably fade McClain against Cincinnati’s dominant secondary. Where the Bearcats have struggled in recent weeks is stopping the run as they’re now 75th in the country having allowed over 180 yards in the last three games, including 297 last week to Tulsa. Jaren Mangham had a quiet day on the ground against the Cougars with just 24 yards on eight attempts, snapping his streak of seven straight games with at least one rushing touchdown. Will Cincinnati employ a similar strategy to Houston and load the box, forcing a true freshman to beat their secondary? My assumption is yes, and Mangham feels a bit too pricy at $6,500. USF mostly rolls with a committee approach, so you’ll see both Kelley Joiner Jr. and Brian Battie mixed in the rotation, along with McClain. Battie rushed for just 27 yards and a TD last week but scored 21.8 fantasy points as he had TWO (yes two) 100-yard kickoff returns vs. Houston. Joiner is the best pass-catcher of the group, and had four receptions on six targets last week.
Cincinnati is allowing just 12.8 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season and have given up the 13th fewest fantasy points to receivers in the country, so we really don’t have to roster anyone here. Xavier Weaver is the team’s top option on the outside, now with 22 targets in the last two games. Omarion Dollison and Jimmy Horn Jr. join Weaver in the starting lineup, with slot-man Bryce Miller joining the four-man rotation. Horn and Dollison double-up Miller’s snap counts so would focus on the top three if wanting to select a USF receiver.
Wyoming @ Boise State
Point-Spread: Boise -13.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 5% rain / 4 mph winds
Wyoming:
Which Wyoming team do we see on Friday? The one that lost four straight games to start conference play or the one that dominated Colorado State last week in arguably the team’s best performance of the season. QB Levi Williams got his second-straight start in place of Sean Chambers and played well in the role of game manager, completing 9-of-16 passes for 92 yards and two scores. We thought the new offensive coordinator might have brought some diversity to this offense, but this remains a run-based scheme as the Cowboys are 114th in the country, averaging just 24 pass attempts per game. Williams does provide a spark with his legs, rushing for 123 yards and a TD on eight attempts against CSU, giving him 19 carries in his two starts. Not sure I can muster up the courage to roster Williams against one of the better secondaries in the Mountain West as Boise State is tied for first with 10 passing TDs allowed and 50th in Pass Play Success Rate.
The Broncos are 125th in Pass Play Explosiveness, though, and given up 21 pass plays of 25+ yards. That might bode well for Wyoming WR1 Isaiah Neyor who should be at a P5 school instead of Wyoming who is wasting his talents. I’d argue one of the best jump-ball specialists in the country, the 6-foot-3 sophomore has found the end-zone twice in each of the last two games with a team-leading eight receiving TDs. With WR2 Ayden Eberhardt out for the season, Wyoming really doesn’t have a secondary option to pair with Neyor in the passing game. 6-foot-4 sophomore Joshua Cobbs got the start last week, but hasn’t had more than 25 receiving yards in a single game this season. Boise State has allowed four 10+ point performances this season by opposing tight ends so maybe Treyton Welch is a low-cost option for us at $3,800. At least three targets in all but one game this year for the sophomore.
If Wyoming is to win on Friday, they have to get the ground game going with starter Xazavian Valladay and talented backup Titus Swen. While Boise State is ranked dead last in the MWC in rush defense, it’s a group that is getting better as the year has gone along. Colorado State and Fresno State were both held to 3.0 YPC or less in the last two weeks. Still think we have to roster at least one, if not both, running backs Friday given Wyoming is 15th in the country, running the football 61 percent of the time. Valladay has been hit or miss when it comes to his production this season, but has been better of late, including a 172-yard performance against San Jose State in Week 9. Two fumbles cost him playing time last week. Valladay still has a year left of eligibility but wouldn’t be surprised if he tried his luck with the NFL next year with Wyoming looking to turn the keys over to Swen who gives off some Brian Hill vibes with his running style. 166 yards on 21 carries last week against a very good Colorado State defense. Advanced stats here favors the Wyoming running game as they’re 42nd in Rush Play Success Rate and 33rd in Line Yards.
Boise State:
I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but we want a piece of the Boise State running game in our lineups. The offensive line, dreadful to start the year, has shown “some” improvement over the last few games, topping 170 yards rushing in the last two weeks with four rushing TDs. We finally saw a healthy George Holani last week, rushing for 117 yards on 21 carries against Fresno State, while also adding 69 receiving yards on two receptions. Not just Holani’s re-emergence, but the matchup dictates playing him against a Wyoming run defense that sits 11th out of 12 teams in the MWC in run defense, having played the 121st easiest schedule in the country. San Jose State carved this Cowboys defense for 238 yards (6.3 YPC) in Week 9, while Colorado State averaged nearly five yards a carry last Saturday. Risk with Holani is always the dudes behind him. Cyrus Habibi-Likio was actually out-vultured (yes I created that term) by Andrew Van Buren who had two of the three team rushing touchdowns.
Hank Bachmeier is the safest option if wanting to roster a second quarterback – I just don’t think it’s necessary in this slate as a 13.5-point favorite and a resurging running game. Has surpassed 25 fantasy points just once this season, and Wyoming is allowing just 16.8 FPPG this season to opposing QB1s – the 12th best mark in the country. Advanced stats back that up as the Cowboys are 22nd in Pass Play Success Rate and 12th in Pass Play PPA. WR2 Stefan Cobbs played just 12 of 80 snaps last week, so we’ll have to monitor his health status leading up to Friday night. Khalil Shakir is a lock, now with 25 targets in the last two games. Maybe a DFS expert will disagree with me, but I’m having Ridder/Shakir in all my lineups and then just mixing and matching combinations. I don’t see how you can be without those two players. WR3 Octavius Evans gets a boost if Cobbs is out/limited, with 22 targets in the last three games alone. WR4 Davis Koetter has been quite since his 4-55-1 performance against Oklahoma State in Week 3, but he’d get the start in place of Cobbs.
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