Iowa vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: Iowa -2.5
O/U Total: 31.5
Implied Score: Iowa 17 – UK 14.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 19% rain / 8 mph winds
Iowa:
Looks like the majority of Kentucky’s full two-deep on defense will be available aside from a cornerback that is opting out for the NFL Draft. Just two options on the Iowa side, primarily in star freshman running back Kaleb Johnson ($4,400) who has already confirmed that he’s returning to Iowa City for his sophomore season. Might seem weird that Johnson needed to confirm this, but big news considering he could’ve been poached by other P5 teams that run a real offensive scheme. I’m not in love with the matchup as Iowa’s offensive line is terrible, and Kentucky is 34th in rush play success rate defensively, allowing only 14 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the season. But Johnson is cheap, talented, and should see 15-20 carries. TE Sam LaPorta ($4,400) is expected to start and play in his final game as a Hawkeye after leading the team with 53 receptions on 83 targets. He’s the only option to invest in given Iowa will be down to their third string quarterback. Imagine being worse than Spencer Petras and Alex Padilla. Can we get some Iowa props out there please?!?!
Kentucky:
Kentucky is also down to a backup QB so we’re not really interested in this passing game that was bad even when Will Levis was in the lineup. WR Barion Brown ($5,200) closed out the year with two excellent performances, including a 10-145-1 outing against the Georgia Bulldogs. Tayvion Robinson is questionable, so expect Brown to be the top target for whomever gets the nod under center. Brown also doubles as the team’s kick returner. Chris Rodriguez is sitting out in preparation for the NFL Draft and Kavosiey Smoke hit the transfer portal. It sounds as though the plan currently is to give RB Jutahn McClain ($4,100) the bulk of the carries in this matchup. Kentucky really doesn’t have a freshman RB on the roster waiting in the wings that could snatch carries away (ala Gavin Sawchuck yesterday for OU). He’ll pop in optimal lineups because of his pricing, but Iowa only allowed 10.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. And have most of their defense playing in this matchup with zero opt-outs in the starting lineup. I’d be cautious having that much exposure there. Only other player under consideration is freshman WR Dane Key ($4,700) who did hit a freshman wall during the middle portion of the season but close the year with three touchdowns in the last four games. The team’s top big-play threat at 14.9 aDOT and 15.2 YPC.
Alabama vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: Bama -6.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Bama 31 – KSU 24.5
Weather: Dome
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryce Young ($8,500) From an outside perspective, it does appear the Alabama players/coaches are focused and ready for this matchup, looking to ride out this disappointing season into the sunset one last time. In a decision between Young and Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700) for the top choice, I’m landing on Young here. If these early bowl games are any indication, I think we’ll see a rotation in the Alabama backfield with some of the younger backs splitting time with Gibbs, ala what we saw with Mo Ibrahim and Minnesota. We also have evidence of Young playing almost the entirety of the game against Austin Peay in Week 12 earlier this year. Young won’t have much ownership either. Kansas State ranked 36th in pass play success rate and gave up just 23.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s on the year so this will be a tough matchup.
Fade – TE Cameron Latu ($4,900) There really isn’t a player on Alabama that I can say is a must-start or fade with complete confidence. Lean Latu here as a fade as $4.9k is just too expensive for a tight end that averaged 4.4 targets and 2.5 receptions per game. Four tight ends scored nine fantasy points or more against Kansas State this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Bond ($3,500) With Earle and Holden in the portal, expect Bond to get the starting nod in the slot after playing 50% of the offensive snaps in the Iron bowl, and was tied for the team lead with five targets.
Pivot Play – WR Jermaine Burton ($5,700) Burton ended up as one of the biggest busts in college fantasy football this season, but he salvaged some of the season with the performances in the last three weeks with 15 receptions on 19 targets and three touchdowns. Looks like his parent might’ve confirmed that Burton will be back for 2023 as well. Bama lost three rotational receivers to the portal already, so expect Burton to play majority of the contest.
Best of the Rest – RB Jase McClellan ($5,100) Double-digit carries for McClellan in each of the last three games, and that include the Auburn matchup where Jahmyr Gibbs played. I’d expect similar here in a matchup where I’ll take the Alabama offensive line over a smaller KSU front. The Tide will be without just one regular starter up front and probably have a 5-star replacing him. Kansas State allowed just 13.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. WR JaCorey Brooks ($6,100) caught 26 passes in his last six games, averaging seven targets and over 15 YPC in that span.
Injury Notes – No opt-outs or injuries to report, but hitting the portal are Trey Sanders, Traeshon Holden, JoJo Earle, Christian Leary, and Aaron Anderson.
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,000) Everyone of importance, as of now, is playing on the Alabama defense so we’re not going to have a ton of KSU exposure. By default, Vaughn gets the nod here as Kansas State’s OL ranks highly based on the advanced metrics, and Bama’s run defense the weaker of the two defensive components. Three running backs scored 20 fantasy points or more on the Tide this season, so it is possible. I also like Vaughn’s increased usage in the passing game over the last six games – 5.5 targets per vs. 3.3 targets per game over the first seven games.
Fade – QB Will Howard ($6,600) Big fan of Will Howard and he’ll project well next year in CFF. But this isn’t the time to play him. Bama allowed just 18.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and were top five in pass play success rate defensively. The big kicker here – we may say Adrian Martinez for a few plays as well. Sounds like it may only be a gadget play here or there, but that could mean a couple fewer drives for Howard potentially.
Bargain Bin – TE Ben Sinnott ($3,700) Won’t win you a GPP and give you two points, so there’s a real low floor and low ceiling here. But Sinnott has been very involved in the KSU offense in three of the last four games, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each with four receiving touchdowns.
Pivot Play – WRs. We know the story here. KSU is 111th in pass play rate, predominantly trying to keep the ball on the ground, facing a secondary that allows just 186 ypg through the air. So best strategy here is to fade everyone. WR Malik Knowles ($5,600) leads the way at 21% target share and I’d suspect they’ll try different ways of getting him the football – seven of his eight rushing attempts this season have come in the last three games. We’ll see a tight rotation with Knowles, Phillip Brooks ($5,100) and Kade Warner ($4,300) who will play 70% or more of the offensive snaps.
Best of the Rest – RB DJ Giddens ($4,000) If I’m on Deuce Vaughn prop unders, then I should really not like DJ Giddens here. And I don’t. But this dude secured himself as the RB1 for 2023 for Kansas State with his late-season performances, averaging close to six yards a carry over the last five games. Talented player.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -7.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UM 33 – TCU 25.5
Weather: Dome
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Quentin Johnston ($6,500) A fully healthy QJ can give this Michigan secondary problems as I’ve harped on in the past. I like this group a LOT more with 5-star freshman Will Johnson now in the starting lineup who can matchup up lengthwise with Johnston, but the bigger bodied receivers have still caused some trouble. Charlie Jones had a huge day in heavy pass-script. Marvin Harrison Jr., Keon Coleman and Tory Horton all had solid games against the Wolverines. There isn’t a need to play any TCU players here, though, against this dominant Michigan defense.
Fade – QB Max Duggan ($7,900) Love Max Duggan, and his legs could cause some problems here for the Wolverines but doesn’t change the fact that Michigan allowed the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks. Blame the soft schedule, but in the biggest moment, the Wolverines made CJ Stroud and the Buckeyes look like an ordinary offense. And they’re full healthy. Ninth in pass play success rate and 15th in explosiveness allowed.
Bargain Bin – WR Savion Williams ($4,500) Johnston will garner the attention, but TCU does have another 6-foot-5 playmaker on the opposite side. I won’t be going in this direction, but Williams has been targeted three or more times in all but two games this season. Williams will either get matched up against Will Johnson or DJ Turner. So either a future NFL corner or 5-star freshman. Advantage Michigan, but Williams is the cheapest usable option on the TCU side.
Pivot Play – RB Kendre Miller ($6,800) Will see the least ownership amongst TCU’s big three…and for good reason. In a conference that yields so many good running backs, Michigan still allowed the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing RB1s. This stat is more important than the opposing QBs. Third in rush play success rate defensively and sixth in explosiveness. TCU has a very good offensive line and Miller has the breakaway speed that could cause some issues.
Best of the Rest – Strategy. Probably best to just fade TCU entirely. Play Miller solo for contrarian purposes. Quentin Johnston has the best matchup, imo, so he can be played solo. Would not stack with Duggan because that could sink your lineup entirely. Or just play one-offs with the receiving corps because Williams, Taye Barber ($5,400) and Derius Davis ($5,600) will see hardly any ownership.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Donovan Edwards ($6,600) Should be the player you have the highest exposure to on the slate and call me biased, but I won’t hear any arguments otherwise. The only way Edwards doesn’t see 25+ touches is this game gets out of hand in favor of the Wolverines. If Michigan can run on Penn State, Ohio State and Illinois, they should dominate this TCU front with the best offensive line in the country. The one downside to Edwards here is how limited he might be as a pass-catcher still because he was practicing this week with his cast still on.
Fade – RB CJ Stokes ($3,000) Sort of a cop out answer but with a little more reasoning to it. As long as the game is close, Edwards will see 80% of the touches in the Michigan backfield. If you’re thinking Stokes gets the other 20%, that would be incorrect. Sounds like former linebacker Kalel Mullings has made the transition over to running back full time as of now after his performance against Ohio State as he was a very effective short-yard runner and threw a massive third-down conversion pop pass in that game. Shame he’s not listed on DK because I would’ve considered him because he’ll get some red zone looks potentially. Stokes will not.
Bargain Bin – Tight ends. Don’t forget about Luke Schoonmaker or Colston Loveland here and prefer the former now that he’s back to full healthy after missing/being limited in the last three games of the regular season. TCU has allowed the second most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – QB JJ McCarthy ($5,900) Really cheap for a QB with a 21-point projection. TCU won’t go single-high safety with little help over the top the way Ohio State did mistakenly, but all the talk this week from the Frogs is about stopping the run. They’ll force McCarthy to beat them. The little birds with ears close to the Michigan program say McCarthy’s had a great week of practice leading up to this matchup, and the deep shots we saw at Ohio State continue to connect in practice. I probably wouldn’t stack McCarthy with any Michigan receiver, but you can play him naked or with Edwards too.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Even as a Michigan fan, I really can’t provide a ton of insights here. Both Cornelius Johnson ($4,800) and Ronnie Bell ($5,800) will play 70% or more of the offensive snaps as Michigan has run a ton of two tight end sets lately with the emergence of Loveland. Bell is the likely candidate to lead in targets as he’s done much of the year, but we saw Johnson’s big-play ability against single coverage in the Ohio State matchup. If you’re really feeling dicey, WR Roman Wilson ($4,200) should see increased playing time after coming back from injury and will have less than 1% ownership. I cannot recommend it fully, but Michigan’s expected to pull out some tricks Saturday and Wilson is the guy typically involved in those plays.
Injury Notes – n/a. The questionables of Colston Loveland, Andrel Anthony and AJ Henning are no longer questionable. Michigan should be full-go.
Ohio State vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -6.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: UGA 34.5 – OSU 28
Weather: Dome
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Emeka Egbuka ($7,500) Egbuka has been the guy in Ohio State’s biggest games this season. 11 targets vs. Notre Dame. 143 yards and a TD vs. Michigan State. 15 targets vs. the Wolverines. If you’re playing someone solo, I think Egbuka is the guy, particularly with CJ Stroud unlikely to have a ton of time in the pocket. Egbuka is his safety valve and the best OSU play if only having one in a lineup.
Fade – RB Miyan Williams ($7,300) Don’t see Ohio State being all that effective running the football here. Not to mention Williams has been in and out of practice this week with a reported sickness. He’ll be a go, but how much? Anytime Ohio State has faced a defense with a pulse this season, Williams has underwhelmed. Nine yards against Penn State, 19 against Iowa, 34 vs. Michigan. Have fun with Georgia’s front that allowed just 11.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody playable that is below $5k.
Pivot Play – Ohio State passing stack. You’re not playing CJ Stroud ($8,200) solo without at least one of the OSU receivers. The game that I cannot get out of my head when trying to evaluate this matchup – Alabama vs. Georgia Part II in the SEC championship last year. Spread em out and beat them with the pass because OSU ain’t running on Georgia. And that stack should go under owned with most folks thinking Georgia will win.
Best of the Rest – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,100) Georgia allowed just 14.9 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, but the physically-gifted athletes like Harrison did find success. Barion Brown’s speed had a field day for 10 receptions. Devontez Walker posted 23 fantasy points. Xzavier Henderson had 22 fantasy points. Malik Nabers and Boutte both had 100+ in the SEC title game. And…even if you think Georgia will blowout Ohio State, all of those receivers I named above played in games vs. UGA that wound up losing by double-digits. Need to have pieces of the OSU passing game here. TE Cade Stover ($5,000) finished third on the team in targets (48), receptions (35) and routes run, though Georgia allowed just one tight end to score double-digit fantasy points on them. WR Julian Fleming ($5,500) saw his production really fall off the second half of the season, failing to post more than 50 yards in the last five games. His snap counts haven’t changed though, so he’ll see the field plenty.
Injury Notes – TreVeyon Henderson will not play. Next time you see him in uniform could be at USC. Next time you see Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be in the NFL.
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Stetson Bennett ($7,500) If looking back to last year’s semifinal, Bennett threw for 313 yards and three scores vs. my Wolverines. Not that this is the same matchup or translatable, but he is the one constant we can bank on for UGA. And that was in a season where Georgia was 51st in passing, averaging just 27 attempts per game. In 2022? 18th in passing at 33 attempts per.
Fade – WR AD Mitchell ($4,300) Situation is eerily similar to that of George Pickens a year ago, coming back late in the year after missing most of the season due to injury. Played just 15 snaps in the SEC Championship game, targeted just once. What did Pickens do in the playoff vs. Michigan last year? One reception and a highlight reel block. The Ladd McConkey injury could play a part here, but it’s not worth risking a roster spot here, particularly on Georgia.
Bargain Bin – See below to injury section.
Pivot Play – RB Kenny McIntosh ($6,300) We talk about the RBBC for Georgia all the time, but that’s now three straight games of 20+ fantasy points for McIntosh. Usage uptick in rushing attempts is quite noticeable. Ohio State was second in the nation, allowing just 13.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season until the Donovan Edwards outburst in the season finale.
Best of the Rest – TE Brock Bowers ($6,300) Don’t really have anything to add for Brock Bowers for how good or bad a play he is. Just 17% target share but has now scored a receiving touchdown in the last two SEC title games, last year’s playoff vs. Michigan and the national title game. Good chance he builds upon that streak. RB Kendall Milton ($4,300) announced he’s returning for 2023, but he’s the third option still behind McIntosh and backup Daijun Edwards ($4,700). Half of his yards against LSU came on one run, and likely won’t see more than 6-8 carries vs. Ohio State.
Injury Notes – WR Ladd McConkey ($6,000) This is the big one to watch. Team’s leader in targets (72) and second in receptions (51) suffered a leg injury in SEC title game and is questionable for Saturday. Dillon Bell ($4,000) and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($4,100) are the biggest beneficiaries if McConkey is unavailable.
