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Louisiana vs. Houston
Point-Spread: Hou -7.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Hou 32 – UL 24.5
Weather: 24 degrees / 0% rain / 16 mph winds
Louisiana:
Top Play(s) – n/a. No need to roster any Louisiana players on this slate. UL’s best player opted out for the NFL Draft. No other receiver on the roster had more than 40 targets for the season. The Cajuns were just 68th in rush play success rate and continue to divvy carries in the backfield like they did under Billy Napier. And it will be a backup QB that is a distant fourth option with the other quarterbacks available on the slate. If Louisiana scored five touchdowns on Friday, it shouldn’t shock anyone if five different players scored those touchdowns.
Fade – RB Chris Smith ($6,200) Smith confirmed that he would play in the bowl game despite declaring his intentions to enter the NFL Draft after this season. Would not prioritize Smith in any lineups as he’s scored just three touchdowns all season, and this offense is a farcry from year’s past under Billy Napier. Offensive line was 40th in line yards and 76th in stuff rate – well below standard from the last few years. Houston’s defense can be forgiving against both the run and the pass, but this isn’t the Louisiana running game we used to know. I’m spending up at both WR and QB for this slate, so Smith is a pass for me.
Bargain Bin – WR Lance Legendre ($3,000) Was totally expecting the former Maryland quarterback to be listed under the QB position on DK, but a nice surprise as a min-priced receiver. Ran just five routes on 14 offensive snaps in the season finale vs. Texas State but converted that into 81 yards and a touchdown on four targets. Might also be a fun opportunity Friday for a trick play or two given Legendre’s former position.
Pivot Play – QB Chandler Fields ($6,000) There’s no chance I could muster up the strength to start Fields given the other QB options on the slate. BUT, if there’s an opponent Fields could potentially find success against, it would be this Houston secondary. Allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing QBs in the entire country in 2022. Five…. FIVE different quarterbacks scored 40 fantasy points or more against the Cougars.
Best of the Rest – RB Dre’Lyn Washington ($3,400) Suppose this is realistically my top pivot play for UL players as I’d much rather roster Washington at his pricing over Chris Smith. Solidified RB2 behind Smith the last month in the season, averaging 9.2 yards per carry in that span, and should have that spot all to himself with Terrence Williams unlikely to play. WR Peter LeBlanc ($3,700) likely takes over as the WR1 with Jefferson out, finishing second on the team in routes run and third in targets. Top three wideouts should be LeBlanc, former TCU transfer John Stephens Jr. ($3,000) and Errol Rogers Jr. ($4,000) with a little Jacob Bernard ($3,100) mixed in. Literal crapshoot choosing between that group. I’d suspect we see plenty of involvement from the tight ends too with Neal Johnson ($3,400), Johnny Lumpkin ($3,000) and Pearse Migl ($3,000) who combined for eight receiving touchdowns between them. Houston allowed the 11th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends.
Injury Notes – WR Michael Jefferson ($6,500) Jefferson will not play, barring a surprise, as he’s declared for the NFL Draft. WR Dontae Fleming ($3,000) hit the transfer portal this offseason and committed to Tulane earlier this week. He will not play. QB Ben Wooldridge ($6,100) suffered a season-ending injury back in November. RB Terrence Williams ($4,000) is questionable to doubtful with an undisclosed injury.
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Nathaniel Dell ($7,700) Was quite easily the best receiver in the country for me in 2022 and considered Dell the MVP of all of College Fantasy Football this season. Tied for the nation’s lead in touchdown receptions (15), finding the end-zone in each of the last nine games. Double-digit targets in each of the last seven weeks. Strength of Louisiana’s defense has been defending the pass, ranked 31st in success rate, but also allowed 18.3 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season.
Fade – See below on Brandon Campbell and Sam Brown.
Bargain Bin – WR Kesean Carter ($3,500) Last time Sam Brown was out of the lineup, Tank Dell kicked outside, and Kesean Carter was the lone man in the slot. Only amounted to 50% of the offensive snaps and just four targets, but assuming Brown doesn’t play, Carter gets a slight boost, as do the other Houston receivers.
Pivot Play – RB Stacy Sneed ($5,600) Has the “questionable” designation on DK, but I assume he’s good to go as he played some in the season-finale vs. Tulsa following a stint in concussion protocol. This will be an important check in pregame warmups as Sneed is likely to see lesser ownership with the cloudy status. While Houston is a three-way backfield with Brandon Campbell ($4,700) and Ta’Zhawn Henry ($5,300) in the fold, Sneed had taken the reins late in the year, averaging 23 FPPG between Week’s 8-11. Despite Houston only running the football 35% of the time this year, they should find success against a Louisiana run defense that fell off the face of the Earth the last two games, allowing a combined 474 yards to Florida State and Texas State. The Cajuns were 102nd in rush play success rate defensively in 2022.
Best of the Rest – QB Clayton Tune ($7,500) From a fantasy standpoint, there weren’t many QBs better in the country in the back half of the season than Tune who averaged well over 30 fantasy points from Week 6 on. Would not fade Tune, but Louisiana is good in the secondary, allowing just 17.5 FPPG to opposing QBs and 31st in pass play success rate. While Dell is the top WR option on the slate, true freshman Matthew Golden ($5,300) ain’t far behind. Closed the year on a high note coming back from injury, scoring double-digit fantasy points and a touchdown in each of the final four games, converting on 76% of the targets in his direction.
Injury Notes – WR Sam Brown ($4,500) Not injury related, but Brown is suspended for Friday after slapping a Tulsa player across the face in the postgame of the season finale. That’s his second dustup of the season after getting in a scuffle with teammate Joseph Manjack earlier in the year.
Wake Forest vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: WF -1.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: WF 30 – Mizzou 28.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – WR AT Perry ($7,000) There were points in the year where we would fade Perry with how messy the Wake Forest rotations were at receiver, but that dynamic changed over the final five weeks with the WR1 averaging 12 targets per game over that span. Similar to Dell above, Perry has declared for the NFL Draft, so we’re hopeful that he doesn’t pull a Tylan Wallace and sit out the second half randomly but spending up at WR for this slate feels optimal. Perry finished the year with 27% of the team’s target share.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is priced appropriately for Wake Forest. Just a matter of confirming everyone is full-go who is projected to be full-go. If I wanted to throw out someone, it would be RB Justice Ellison ($5,100) despite the potential of him getting 100% of the carries on Friday. Missouri allowed just one running back to score more than 20 fantasy points all season against them, and Wake Forest’s offensive line ranks poorly among P5 teams. Again, I’m spending up at WR when possible.
Bargain Bin – WR Keshawn Williams ($3,500) A distant sixth among WF pass-catchers in terms of routes run, but third on the team in targets (59), averaging 6.4 tar/g over the last five weeks, hitting 40 yards or more in every game during the stretch. Those numbers don’t equate to a $3.5k player.
Pivot Play – WR Donavon Greene ($5,200) With Jahmal Banks out of the lineup against Duke in the finale, Greene set season high in routes run vs. the Blue Devils, targeted four times with a touchdown. Hartman will continue to spread the ball around amongst the quartet of talented receivers that also features slot-men Taylor Morin ($5,000) and the aforementioned Williams, but it is Greene who gets the bump if Banks is out.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Hartman ($8,400) I’m tentative about rostering Hartman here. For one, the matchup isn’t the best against a top-notch Missouri secondary that finished 30th in pass play success rate and allowed just 18 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. But the recent comments from both Hartman and HC Dave Clawson have me somewhat skeptical here about his status. Hartman already confirmed “no shot” that he’s returning to WF next season, whether that is pursuing a career in the NFL or taking an NIL offer elsewhere. Does Hartman play the entire game here with that being the case? No way for us to know but wouldn’t shock us to see backup Mitch Griffis get a series or two. Just something to monitor
Injury Notes – WR Jahmal Banks ($6,000) Have not seen an official update on Banks who missed the season finale vs. Duke due to injury. Monitor during pregame. RB Christian Turner ($4,100) hit the portal for the second time in his career now and is not expected to play. RB Quinton Cooley ($3,000) committed to Liberty on Thursday, so it would appear he’s not eligible either.
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – QB Brady Cook ($6,500) Our number three projected fantasy player for all of bowl season at $6,500. I’ll have my most exposure to Cook on this slate given his projection/pricing. Faces a Wake Forest defense that ranked 89th in pass play success rate and allowed 28.7 FPPG to opposing QBs during the regular season. Cook came alive late in the year, averaging over 30 FPPG during the last three weeks and topped 100 yards rushing twice in that span. Hurt slightly with the depleted WR corps, but his dual-threat ability raises his floor, and you can play him naked without pairing.
Fade – WR Tauskie Dove ($3,000) Dove hit the portal this week, but it is being reported that he will play on Friday for the Tigers. Easy pass here on a receiver that hit double-digit fantasy points just once this season, despite ranking No. 1 on the team in routes run for the season. Highly inefficient player (46% conversion rate) that is likely to transfer to G5 or FCS.
Bargain Bin – WR Mookie Cooper ($3,800) No Dominic Lovett and potentially no Barrett Banister would mean that the former Ohio State transfer would be the top option in the slot. Minimal impact this season as Cooper played in just seven games due to injury but accounted for three or more receptions in over half of those contests. Cooper’s 13.6% drop rate this season was tops on the team among Missouri receivers.
Pivot Play – WR Luther Burden ($4,700) We stopped considering Burden in our DFS/CFF lineups after around Week 6 of this season, but the 5-star freshman turned things around a bit, averaging 13.6 FPPG over the second half of the year. Should see a healthy uptick without Lovett in the lineup and would imagine this is a showcase game of sorts given Burden’s decision to stick around in Columbia (surprisingly) for another year. WR1s averaged 23.1 FPPG against Wake Forest this season, the eighth highest mark in the country.
Best of the Rest – RB Cody Schrader ($5,200) Schrader has taken over the Missouri backfield away from Nathaniel Peat, garnering over 80% of the backfield volume share (RBs only) dating back to Week 9. Wake Forest only allowed 15.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season and were 70th in rush play success rate – not great, but far better numbers defending the run vs. the pass.
Injury Notes – WR Barrett Banister ($3,300) Banister suffered a fourth quarter injury in Week 12 vs. New Mexico State, forcing him to miss the season finale. The injury did not appear to be too serious, and the expectation is that he’s available Friday. Was settling into his place within the offense leading up to the injury, targeted at least seven times in each of the final three regular season games.