Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo
Point-Spread: Tol -10
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 14% rain / 20 mph winds
MTSU:
Looks like we won’t have the monsoon that was expected earlier in the week for this matchup, now sitting at 14 percent chance rain on Friday, but we’re going to see upwards of 20 mph winds which lends towards a lower scoring game – anything above 16 mph leads to unders around 55 percent of the time in college football. That means if you’re reading this on Thursday, be on the lookout on DraftKings for some Middle Tennessee props and hammer those unders, particularly at the QB position where we could potentially see both Nick Vattiato and Mike Diliello get reps as they’ve done in the final few games of the regular season. Vattiato is listed atop the game notes depth chart so assume he gets the starting nod here, but this is not the matchup for either player against a Toledo defense that allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing QB1s this season. The wind, the matchup and the possibility of split reps mean I’m completely out here for my DFS lineups.
Same goes for the MTSU backfield where Middle Tennessee finished 106th in the country (3.51 YPC), though we did see marginal improvements over the course of the year. Diliello does add a running element that MTSU will incorporate into the offense as he leads the Blue Raiders with five rushing scores – four of which have come in the last five games. I think you could potentially create a lineup in the showdown with both MTSU quarterbacks if you’re feeling saucy. Martell Pettaway and Frank Peasant will share the running duties in the backfield, but we don’t have either player projected to score more than six fantasy points. Of course, that means they’ll probably be a GPP winner. Toledo allows just 15.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 37th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. Hope you jumped on the Pettaway unders on PrizePicks.
If targeting any MTSU player, it will be one of the pass-catchers with the favorable game script, but you have between 7-8 to choose from as the staff rotates them all consistently throughout the game. Yusuf Ali seems to have emerged as the top option in the last month of the season with 27 of his 53 targets coming in that span, but he’s really only viable on DK in a full-point PPR setting. His 5.1 aDOT means everything he catches is near the LOS. Too cheap, though, at $3,700 given the way he closed the season. WR1 Jarrin Pierce will see lower ownership at his $5,500 pricing, but also because of the way he close his season having not had more than three receptions in a game since Week 6. His targets have been consistently in the 3-6 range since Week 4 and appears to now be the second or third option. In GPPs, his ownership will be extremely low.
5-foot-8 true freshman Jaylin Lane looks to be a name to monitor in future years after his strong debut season that closed on a high note with 14 receptions on 19 targets in the final two weeks. He’s listed as a starter along with Pierce and CJ Windham who hasn’t found the end-zone since Week 2 vs. Virginia Tech. Izaiah Gathings and DJ England-Chisolm are both in the mix as well. Hybrid tight end / wide receiver Jimmy Marshall is another option that probably sees lower ownership at his pricing of $5,100 but I like the matchup here in the middle of the field against the Toledo linebackers. The Rockets allowed just 5.2 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season, but both Michael Mayer and Trey McBride – albeit elite fantasy tight ends – posted 20+ fantasy points in their matchups with Toledo.
Toledo:
Projections indicates we fire up both Dequan Finn and Bryant Koback as they are projected over 20 fantasy points, and should see a heavy dosage of carries as 10-point favorites against a team in Middle Tennessee that struggles typically in bowl games winning just two in the last eight appearances. The Raiders do rank 32nd in the country at defending the run and are 20th nationally in Rush Play Success Rate. A LOT of smoke and mirrors with those stats because look at the teams faced in the final six games this season – Connecticut, Southern Miss, Western Kentucky, FIU, Old Dominion and Florida Atlantic. Only one of those teams – Old Dominion – ranks in the Top 60 in rushing offense…and that’s at No. 60. Toledo, on the other hand, is 12th in Line Yards, 32nd in Stuff Rate and 49th in Rush Play Success Rate. The Rockets should be able to control the line of scrimmage here. Koback is a lock, but the biggest decision of the slate comes down to Finn vs. Lombardi as the second QB in our lineups. Finn gets the better matchup and higher projection, but will also see the higher ownership percentage in a location that will have 20 mph winds as indicated above. I’ll be mixing and matching those two to pair with Grayson McCall in hopes of finding the right lineup combination.
Very little interest here in the Toledo receivers as they’re reminiscent of what we discussed with the MTSU wideouts in that they’ll rotate 5-6 consistently with very little separation as far as target distribution. Middle Tennessee ranks 53rd in Pass Play Success Rate, and their defenders actually grade out fairly well in coverage per PFF. Slot man Devin Maddox appears to have the best matchup of the group based on PFF coverage grades, and did end the year with a receiving touchdown in the finale vs. Akron. Both slot and outside receivers have found success vs. Middle Tennessee this year, with WR1s averaging 20.6 FPPG so I think we can also look to 6-foot-3 Isaiah Winstead who wound up leading the team in targets with 63. He’s a big play waiting to happen with his 15.6 aDOT. Georgia transfer Matt Landers came on strong in the final month with four receiving touchdowns. 16 of his 23 total targets occurred in the last four weeks. WR4 Danzel McKinley-Lewis was not targeted in the finale but did play 34 offensive snaps so I don’t think there is any kind of injury to worry about there, though I cannot locate a depth chart in Toledo’s 250-page bowl game media guide.
Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
Point-Spread: CCU -10.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
NIU:
Have to wonder if DFS players will be tentative with NIU here considering the disaster that was Championship Week with the Huskies dominating time of possession against Kent State, leading to one of the most disappointing outcomes of the season in daily fantasy. I’m all over the Rocky Lombardi overs as discussed on the Discord this week, mostly because their lines are too low currently, but this should be a game script that sides with him throwing the football as a double-digit underdog. Does that mean I’m jamming Lombardi in my DFS lineups? Not necessarily. Looking high-level, the Chants do field a Top 15 pass defense that allows just 191 yards per game through the air. Dive a bit deeper and the CCU secondary is in the 80s in Pro Football Focus coverage grades and 35th in Pass Play Success Rate. Easy matchup? No. Fade Lombardi? Also no. Six quarterbacks this season topped 20 fantasy points vs. CCU this season and that list isn’t overflowing with elite talent (Gunnar Watson, Chase Brice, Darren Grainger, etc).
Assuming Lombardi is throwing more than we’ve seen the last two weeks, have to think both Trayvon Rudolph and Cole Tucker are in play as they accounted for nine of the 13 targets vs. Kent State with no other pass catcher having more than a single target. That’s not a one-off occurrence either with no established third option in this passing attack. No real advantage for either player when looking at the CCU secondary. Best defender for the Chants resides at nickel corner in Enock Makonzo who will be matched up most of the time with Rudolph in the slot, but Tucker gets plenty of run inside as well. We do have a depth chart in the Game Notes and Tyrice Richie remains absent so safe to assume he’s out yet again. That means Mohamed Toure gets the starting nod as the WR3 as he played over 50 percent of the offensive snaps vs. Kent State. Just 12 targets on the year, but is min-priced as $3k if in need of a salary-saver.
Of the two phases on defense, Coastal is weaker at defending the run…but not by much. CCU is 58th in Rush Play Success Rate, but allowed just 13.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season with just two running backs topping 20 fantasy points. Game script doesn’t favor the NIU run game, but getting away from running the football is not in this team’s DNA. The Huskies will continue to play smashmouth football with their three-headed monster in the backfield with Jay Ducker, Antario Brown and Clint Ratkovich. Ducker remains a reasonable $4,900 which continues to feel inexplicable given he’s topped 100 yards rushing in six of the last seven games, though it feels like we’re seeing more and more of the backups with each passing week. Don’t really have a strong argument of playing/fading any of the three so whichever player you can insert to fit your lineup builds works in my opinion.
Coastal Carolina:
Article came out on Tuesday regarding Grayson McCall with comments indicating he might be seeking a transfer in the offseason. That got the headlines, but McCall also provided clarity regarding his playing status, indicating he’s a go for Friday and wants to finish the season on a high note. As we found out during MACtion, this NIU defense can be had every which way, which makes a dual-threat like McCall a must-have for this two game slate. Facing a defense that allowed 26 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season, McCall will be the highest-owned player on the slate – if you feel it more advantageous to fade in GPPs. CCU’s passing game is one of the easier groups to dissect as McCall really only looks in three directions – WR1 Jaivon Heiligh, TE1 Isaiah Likely or WR2 Kameron Brown. That’s 72 percent of the team target share with those three players. Could be overthinking here but there are some reasons to fade both Heiligh and Likely. With Heiligh, he’ll be lined up across from CB Jordan Gandy who is NIU’s highest-rated defender. Argument against Likely is that NIU is allowing just 2.7 FPPG this season to opposing TE1s with just two players topping 10 fantasy points. Will I fade either player? Nope, but providing context here as to why you potentially could. Brown is in the mix here with the best matchup against NIU’s weakest cornerback, and 15 of his 33 receptions coming in the last four games of the regular season. Hail Mary play is slot receiver Greg Latushko who consistently plays around 45-50 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, but has just seven targets in the last four games.
For the first time in four weeks, looks like Reece White is back on the team depth chart so the assumption here is that he will play. How much is a complete unknown but a person with insight to practices tweeted on Tuesday that White was at practice and moving around well. Shame because Shermari Jones really had a stranglehold on the volume distribution in the backfield, averaging over 20 attempts per in the last month while White was out. Still think you lock n’load Jones into lineups as he was the preferred option early in the year even when White was healthy, but this dampens his value. Both are in play as NIU allows 22.1 FPPG on the year. Line has grown from 10 to 10.5 since the start of the week, so if this does turn into a possible blowout, that could also open the door for RB3 Braydon Bennett who remained a big-play threat all season long, averaging over eight yards per carry. He’s also the best pass-catcher of the bunch, sitting fourth on the team with 22 targets which adds to his value. He’ll see lower ownership than NIU’s Antario Brown who is $100 more which makes Bennett enticing from that standpoint.