Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
- Point-Spread: MSU -3
- O/U Total: 53
- Implied Score: MSU 28 – WF 25
- Weather: 49 degrees / 20% rain / 3 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – WR Carlos Hernandez ($5,200) The Wazzu transfer was Wake Forest’s best offensive weapon in the last three games of the season with a combined 390 receiving yards in that stretch. Helps facing a G5 opponent and Duke’s woeful secondary, but we know Hernandez is a capable player from his days back at Washington State. Mississippi State allows close to 40 FPPG to opposing team’s WR groups.
Bargain Bin – WR Sawyer Racanelli ($4,400) Racanelli will start in place of Chris Barnes who will get a hefty bag in the transfer portal this offseason. We already have evidence of how Racanelli performed in a starting role too against Duke in Week 14, leading the Deacons with 123 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. Expecting the passing game for WF to funnel largely through Hernandez and Racanelli.
Pivot Play – RB Ty Clark III ($4,500) Clark is the only RB left on the Wake roster that has played any meaningful snaps this season with Demond Claiborne off to the NFL and multiple backups in the transfer portal. Nothing about Clark’s season jumps off the page, averaging just 4.0 YPC on 58 attempts, but did find the end-zone in the last two games of the regular season against Delaware and Duke. 10-15 touches is the expectation, which you’ll take on most occasions from a $4.5k running back. MSU was poor at stopping the run this season, ranked 125th in rush D success rate and allowed 28 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – QB Robby Ashford ($7,400) Final collegiate game for Robby Ashford, who turned in a credible year for a player most thought should change positions, averaging 19.2 FPPG with back-to-back 35-point fantasy performances in the last two weeks. Nine total touchdowns for Ashford in his last three games – 6 passing / 3 rushing, with 50+ yards on the ground in each of the last five games.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Demond Claiborne (NFL), WR Chris Barnes (portal), WR Micah Mays (portal)
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – QB Kamario Taylor ($7,200) Second-best QB option on the slate as we all saw the star freshman’s capabilities on full display in the Egg Bowl with 38.4 fantasy points, including 178 yards on the ground vs. Ole Miss. The matchup isn’t great, where Wake Forest has been tremendous defensively in 2025, ranked 39th nationally in defensive scoring and only giving up 15 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. But cost + projection + elite running ability put Taylor towards the top of QB options on the slate.
Fade – RB Davon Booth ($5,900) Booth was suspended for the first half of the Egg Bowl and finished with just three carries. Can’t imagine the coaches are willing to give Booth, who will graduate after this year, an extended look over players that will be on the team in 2026. Wake allows just 23 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields as it is, so an RB2 is not of much interest to us.
Bargain Bin – WR Ayden Williams ($3,400) Seems like most everyone is a go from the Mississippi State offense, but if we get a surprise opt-out at WR from either Anthony Evans or Brenen Thompson, Williams has served as the team’s WR3 in the second half of the year. Minimal production but has played 75% of the offensive snaps over the last 6 weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Brenen Thompson ($5,500) or WR Anthony Evans III ($5,600) Top heavy target share for the Bulldogs this season with Thompson / Evans combining for 50% of the distribution, with 10 of the team’s 19 receiving touchdowns. Appears as though Evans made an unofficial annoucement that he’ll be on the team in 2026, while Thompson is reportedly going for another season of college eligibility. That’s telling that we don’t expect any limitations or opt out from either player.
Best of the Rest – RB Fluff Bothwell ($5,700) RB is incredibly weak on the slate, so we can go in a number of different directions here. Couple issues, though, with playing Bothwell. (1) The Wake defense is exceptional against the run, ranked 24th in EPA per rush play, 17th in success rate and 32nd at limiting explosives. (2) Davon Booth leads the team in red zone carries and Kamario Taylor is just three shy (16) of Bothwell in RZ rushing attempts despite just starting a single game all year.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Blake Shapen (out)
Navy vs. Cincinnati
- Point-Spread: Navy -7
- O/U Total: 54
- Implied Score: Navy 30.5 – Cin 23.5
- Weather: 58 degrees / 58% rain / 5 mph winds
Navy:
Three players of note on the Navy side, just as we wrote up for Army last week, unless we get a surprise freshman who hasn’t played all year rush for two touchdowns like Godspower Nwawuihe. And the Navy offense should be able to do what it wants on Friday, facing a Cincinnati defense that will be down almost its entire secondary, starting defensive end and multiple reserve depth pieces on that side of the ball. The Midshipmen scored 49 touchdowns this season with QB Blake Horvath ($8,300), FB Alex Tecza ($6,500) and RB / WR Eli Heidenreich ($7,100) had a hand in 37 of them. All three in a lineup might be overkill, but one Navy player is a requirement and two is a viable strategy.
Cincinnati:
Fade – QBs. No Brendan Sorsby, who will likely be Texas Tech’s next QB, so the expectation is that we’ll see a combination of both Brady Lichtenberg and potentially freshman Semaj Joens share reps in this game. There’s more than enough QB options on this slate that we don’t even need to bother with this potential headache. Zero exposure, even if creating 200 lineups.
Pivot Play – RB Evan Pryor ($5,300) Pryor has already declared his intentions for the transfer portal but is still listed on the team depth chart as the starter. The depth chart in the bowl game media guide could have also been published prior to Pryor’s announcement and just not updates. If Pryor and Tawee Walker are both out, the rushing duties would fall upon backups RB Zion Johnson ($4,400) and Manny Covey ($4,000). We’d lean towards fading this situation, as Navy’s strength on defense is stopping the run, ranking 61st in EPA per rush play and allowing only 18 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – Pass-catchers. Everyone at receiver and tight end appears to be playing, so take your shots on WR Cyrus Allen ($5,900), WR Jeff Caldwell ($4,300), WR Caleb Goodie ($4,100) or TE Joe Royer ($4,400). Navy can be attacked through the air, ranked 108th in yards allowed per game passing and giving up over 40 FPPG to opposing team’s WRs. Limit one per lineup with the unknown situation at quarterback. Outside receivers had their way with Navy’s undersized secondary, particularly late in the year with Cortez Braham, Jeremiah Koger and Malachi Fields all scoring double-digit fantasy points. Assuming that trend holds, that would favor Caldwell or Goodie in this scenario.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Brendan Sorsby (portal), RB Evan Pryor (portal), RB Tawee Walker (out)
Arizona vs. SMU
- Point-Spread: Ariz -3
- O/U Total: 52
- Implied Score: Ariz 27.5 – SMU 24.5
- Weather: 61 degrees / 9% rain / 5 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Kris Hutson ($5,800) Zona was a wide receiver by committee much of the year until the month of November where the passing offense funneled through Hutson, targeted 44 times in the last four games alone. Wide receivers have torched this SMU secondary all year – the Mustangs allowed 48 combined fantasy points per game to opposing team’s WRs.
Fade – RBs. Very few standouts at the RB position on this slate outside of Lincoln Pare, so probably can’t outright eliminate RBs Ismail Mahdi ($5,600) or RB Kedrick Reescano ($5,300) but it’s been a pure guessing game as to which back is the primary to choose from. SMU has also been exceptional against the run this season, ranked 14th in success rate, No. 1 nationally in eliminating explosive run plays and giving up just 17 combined FPPG to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – TE Cameron Barmore ($3,500) I thought Barmore would be a cheat code at tight end this season in college fantasy, having caught 73 passes for 954 yards and 13 touchdowns the year prior at Mercyhurst College. That obviously didn’t transpire, but Barmore’s participation on offense steadily rose in the second half of the year and closed the year on a strong note with 28 yards and a TD in the finale. SMU allowed just over 9 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – WR Chris Hunter ($4,100) Hunter fell out of favor at one point in the year, but ran the second most routes behind Kris Hutson in the season finale vs. Arizona State, finishing tied for second in that game with four receptions on five targets. Stacking multiple WRs from Arizona could be a way to differentiate in GPPs, given how many fantasy points SMU allows to wideouts as we alluded to above. But similar to RB, it’s a guessing game as to who the WR2 will be that given week between Hunter, WR Tre Spivey ($4,200) or WR Javin Whatley ($4,800).
Best of the Rest – QB Noah Fifita ($7,800) Fifita is QB5 for me on the slate with a modest 16.5-point projection but can see a path to him hitting value in the matchup. SMU is just 93rd in pass D success rate and allowed the second most passing yards per game in the ACC this season. Fifita also used his legs a bit more later in the year with 138 of his 322 yards coming in the final four games.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – TE Keyan Burnett (portal)
SMU:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Hudson ($5,700) Arizona’s secondary is borderline elite, but tough not to consider Hudson here as he was one of the more reliable fantasy receivers in the country, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all but two games. Hudson scored a touchdown in each of his last three games and was targeted 10 or more times in three of his final four contests.
Fade – TE RJ Maryland ($3,900) Remember when RJ Maryland was considered a top 5-10 fantasy tight end? For whatever reason, his role is diminished, ranked fifth on the team in targets (38), receptions (27) and routes run. Against Cal in the finale, Maryland played just 25% of the team’s snaps. He might have a catch or two, but minimal upside.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($4,700) Arizona didn’t allow many fantasy points to TEs in the regular season, but Hibner was strong down the stretch with 218 of his 351 receiving yards coming in the final four games. Hibner rarely left the field in November, playing 91% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – An SMU running back. The Mustangs were very poor running the football all season but easily had their best performance of the year in the finale with 245 yards on the ground and three touchdowns on 8.4 YPC. Teams can run on Arizona, ranked 97th in rush D success rate and 83rd in EPA per run play. RB TJ Harden ($6,300) remains the starter but have seen more of a committee backfield with RB Chris Johnson Jr. ($5,100) and RB Derrick McFall Jr. ($4,800) both equally involved. I would not be shocked to see Johnson get an extended look on Friday as he’s the potential RB1 for 2026 with Harden graduating. Johnson led the team with a 7.5 YPC average and 59.4% breakaway run rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Kevin Jennings ($7,600) Strong projection for Jennings here, and he’s fully healthy now after a month off after battling injuries in 2025. Arizona allowed just 18 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season, with QBs scoring 24% below their seasonal average when facing the Wildcats, so its not a given Jennings reached value. WR Yamir Knight ($5,000) was another SMU wideout who performed well down the stretch with three touchdowns in his final four games.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Rice vs. Texas State
- Point-Spread: Tex St -14.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: Tex St 36 – Rice 21.5
- Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Rice:
Jokes on me if Rice goes out and lights up the scoreboard, but we’re fading a 5-7 team that shouldn’t even be eligible for a bowl game and coming in with the 119th ranked scoring offense. WR Aaron Turner ($4,900) was the team’s best playmaker down the stretch, scoring a touchdown in three of his last four games, while also targeted 10 times in the season finale vs. South Florida. The issue is Turner will be catching passes from third string quarterback in QB Patrick Crayton Jr. ($6,500) who has attempted all of six passes this season. RB Quinton Jackson ($5,700) is the longshot play that had a pair of spike weeks earlier in the year, including 172 yards and three scores vs. another bowl team in UConn. Texas State can be run on, ranked 96th in EPA per rush play and allowing 28 FPPG to opposing backfields, but a risk to play Jackson who’s been hit or miss for much of the year.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Chase Jenkins (portal), QB Drew Devillier (portal), RB Daelen Alexander (portal), WR Drayden Dickmann (portal)
Texas St:
Top Play(s) – RB Lincoln Pare ($7,500) Pare gets the nod as Texas State’s top play, but you need at minimum two Texas State players in each lineup as the Bobcats should steamroll this Rice defense that finished 120th scoring defense, allowing 50+ points in each of its last two games. The lack of credible RB options is why Pare gets top billing for us in his final collegiate game, having scored 20+ fantasy points in each of his last four games. Rice finished 81st in yards allowed on the ground, but fell apart in the last two weeks, allowing over 440 rushing yards and seven TDs to North Texas and South Florida. If the Rice run defense shows up, well, Pare was Texas State’s third leading receiver with 36 receptions on 40 targets.
Pivot Play – RB Greg Burrell ($5,200) Burrell is next man up in the Texas State backfield in 2026, having already confirmed that he’ll return next season. The former UNLV transfer is a more explosive runner than Pare, averaging 6.5 YPC with a higher yard after contact average and breakaway run percentage than the RB1. I would lean towards playing one Texas State RB in a lineup rather than stacking Burrell and Pare, but everyone is going to eat for the Bobcats in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – QB Brad Jackson ($8,500) Best QB option on the slate, as Jackson finished the season as QB4 in college fantasy football, facing a Rice defense that allowed over 23 FPPG to the position. Extremely condensed target share between WR Beau Sparks ($6,500) and WR Chris Dawn Jr. ($5,400) who combined for 67% of Texas State’s receiving production and 11 of the 18 receiving touchdowns. Would have one of Sparks or Dawn in each lineup.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Lincoln Pare, Texas State
- WR Carlos Hernandez, Wake Forest
- WR Jordan Hudson, SMU
- A Texas State WR
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Lincoln Pare, Texas State
- WR Carlos Hernandez, Wake Forest
- WR Jordan Hudson, SMU
- A Texas State WR
