Ohio vs. Jacksonville State
Point-Spread: Ohio -3
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: Ohio 28.5 – JSU 25.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – QB Parker Navarro ($8,800) Tough choice here between Navarro and Anthony Tyus for the top play on Ohio but leaning the QB1 as he’s our highest projected player on the slate. We see this all the time over college football, nearing the end of the season and QBs start to throw their bodies around a bit more in the running game. Such is the case with Navarro, averaging 13 rushing attempts over the last four games with 10 of his 15 rushing touchdowns coming in that stretch. We’ve seen several running quarterbacks find success against JSU this season including Ethan Vasko (12-39-1), Keyone Jenkins (33 yards) and Hunter Watson (21-105-1).
Fade – RB Rickey Hunt ($4,200) Only path to relevancy for Hunt – last year’s bowl game hero – is Anthony Tyus getting hurt or being a surprise scratch. Hunt had just 14 combined rushing yards over the last four games.
Bargain Bin – WR Chase Hendricks ($4,100) Hendricks was one of the stars of the bowl game with 61 yards receiving on 10 targets. Folks were off of Hendricks because of his close to the regular season with just 12 yards receiving in the final two games, but both matchups were blowouts and the WR2 was not needed to factor into the outcome. Playing time, even in that stretch, remained unchanged as Hendricks continues to play over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. In a competitive setting like this, he’ll be an option along with Coleman Owen. Longshot bargain play would be TE Mason Williams ($3,100) as Jacksonville State struggled mightily to stop the position this season, allowing 11.4 FPPG to tight ends during the regular season. Multiple players scored 20 or more fantasy points.
Pivot Play – RB Anthony Tyus ($5,800) Double stack of Tyus and Parker Navarro is possible because of Tyus’s pricing here, and Ohio being one of the most run-heavy offenses in the country at 61%. Jacksonville State closed strong with defending the run, but still finished 99th nationally in rush D success rate for the season. Tyus would be my RB2 for the slate behind Tre Stewart.
Best of the Rest – WR Coleman Owen ($7,200) Five wide receivers scored at least 20 fantasy points against Jacksonville State this season, none of which are as good as Owen who is just three targets shy of 100 for the year. Owen has 600 more receiving yards than the next closest Bobcat pass-catcher.
Injury Notes – n/a. No Ohio players are in the portal currently.
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – QB Tyler Huff ($9,000) Numbers are excellent for the Ohio defense against both the run and pass, but there isn’t a backfield duo like the one Jacksonville State possesses in the MAC. Despite being questionable with an ankle injury in the C-USA title game, Huff was a menace on the ground with 167 yards and a touchdown on 23 rushing attempts. If you were thinking about fading Huff, here is the argument – Ohio allowed more than 15 fantasy points to just two quarterbacks all season long.
Fade – WRs. Jacksonville State’s top playmaker at receiver – Cam Vaughn – is in the portal so unknown whether he will partake in the contest or not. Jacksonville State also does not want to throw the ball, ranked 131st in pass play percentage at 32.7%. Risk is not worth the reward here, especially because the other options are priced up above $5k.
Bargain Bin – TE Sean Brown ($3,700) Tied for second on the team in touchdowns (3) and fifth in routes run. Ohio did allow some big performances to tight ends this season, including Oronde Gadsden (23 fpts), Jacob Newell (19 fpts) and Anthony Torres (12 fpts).
Pivot Play – RB Tre Stewart ($8,900) Huff and Stewart are stackable, though maybe not as appealing as the Ohio duo because of pricing and the opposing defense. Ohio is 13th in rush D success rate, but did allow plenty of fantasy points to opposing running backs, including Marion Lukes (37 fpts), Demie Sumo (23 fpts) and LeQuint Allen (22 fpts).
Best of the Rest – WRs. We advise against it, but if looking to find a Jacksonville State WR with less than 5% ownership, Brock Rechsteiner and Michael Pettway would be the choices, as they played over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last two weeks. They move up slightly if Cam Vaughn is out.
Injury Notes – WR Cam Vaughn (portal – but is on location and still on the depth chart).
Tulane vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UF -13.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UF 32 – Tul 18.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($7,900) Hughes gets the nod here by default as we do not have confidence in the Tulane passing game with a backup at QB. If this were a normal regular season slate, Hughes would absolutely be in our top grouping of options, but we’re not fully confident Tulane finds much success on the ground. The Tulane rushing attack fell off down the stretch, averaging fewer than four yards a carry against both Memphis and Army. Meanwhile, the Florida run defense peaked in the last three games, allowing just one combined TD on the ground to its last three opponents. LSU and Florida State both averaged under three yards per attempt vs. the Gators in that span. Hughes won’t have a ton of ownership, so could be a pivoting option, but we like Tre Stewart, Anthony Tyus and the Florida RBs better in this spot.
Fade – QB Ty Thompson ($5,000) The former 5-star is looking for his third school now in the transfer portal, though confirmed to be starting on Friday. Are we really confident in a player that has now flamed out at both Oregon and Tulane, with his sights set on his next destination? Florida’s secondary was the strength of the defense, despite several injuries, ranking 48th in success rate and giving up just 19 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season.
Bargain Bin – TE Alex Bauman ($3,300) Team leader in touchdown receptions (7), finding the end-zone in four of the last six games. Florida struggled to defend the tight end position during the regular season, allowing five players to score at least 10 fantasy points.
Pivot Play – WR Mario Williams ($5,400) Steep price to pay for a receiver with a complete unknown at quarterback that may run it more than throw, but Williams is the undisputed alpha of the Tulane WR room, finishing with 29% of the team’s target share. No other Tulane receiver had more than 50 targets for the season, compared to Williams’ 82. Five wideouts scored at least 19 fantasy points against Florida this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Yulkeith Brown ($3,900) I think I prefer Brown to WR Dontae Fleming ($4,900) for a few reasons, pricing being the obvious. Looking back at wideouts that found success against Florida, three of the top four highest scoring receivers to face the Gators this season played in the slot where Brown resides. The problem is that Tulane primarily deploys two-TE sets in standard down situations, so one of Brown or Fleming come off the field. Neither is a priority play on the slate.
Injury Notes – QB Darian Mensah (portal), RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson (portal), QB Kai Horton (portal)
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB1. The trouble is we do not know who that will be between Montrell Johnson, Jadan Baugh, or Ja’Kobi Jackson. No official word on Johnson as of Thursday writing this, but he’s a senior who has already been injured this season and has accepted a slot in the East / West Shrine Game. No indication yet that he’ll sit, but not a lot of motivation there for Johnson to be full-go from my viewpoint. Most of Tulane’s defense should be available on Friday, and the high-level rush defense numbers are solid, but the Green Wave fell off the last two weeks, allowing over 500+ yards and seven touchdowns in that span.
Fade – QB DJ Lagway ($5,300) The 5-star will show up on the optimals because of his pricing, but should he be in our lineups? Tulane defense was not hit by opt-out attrition, has struggled defending the run, and Lagway has failed to score more than 15 fantasy points in all but one game this season. We have three premier dual-threat fantasy QBs to choose from over Lagway.
Bargain Bin – TE Hayden Hansen ($3,000) TE1 Arlis Boardingham is in the portal and will not participate in the bowl game. Hansen was primarily the team’s blocking tight end, but did step up in the finale when Boardingham was unavailable, converting on all three of his targets. Four tight ends scored at least nine fantasy points against Tulane this season.
Pivot Play – WR Marcus Burke ($3,700) No bowl game two-deep for the Gators but it seems that Marcus Burke is the WR3 behind Chimere Dike and Elijhah Badger based on the Week 14 matchup with Florida State, targeted four times with a receiving touchdown on 49% of the snaps – third amongst Florida receivers.
Best of the Rest – WR Elijhah Badger ($5,600) or WR Chimere Dike ($5,000) Badger lands in our Core Four below because of his connection with Lagway, scoring touchdowns in two of this last three games – the lone occurrence he did not find the end-zone being in a matchup against Florida State where the game was in firm control and the Gators didn’t need to throw. The Badger / Dike duo combined for 40% of the team target share, with no other player on the roster having more than 20 receptions for the year.
Injury Notes – Montrell Johnson opt-out watch. TE Arlis Boardingham (portal).
Indiana vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -7.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ND 28 – IU 21.5
Weather: 27 degrees / 40% rain / 8 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Justice Ellison ($5,200) Fact of the matter is that there isn’t an Indiana player that you absolutely need to have in your lineup. We’re out on the Hoosiers’ QB, no matter how good he was during the regular season. Indiana is a 55-45 split backfield between Ellison and his backup. And no wideout had more than 25% of the target share in a matchup with a top three secondary in the country. Ellison gets the slight nod because he scored a rushing touchdown in 8-of-12 games this year, and the Irish are 90th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Kurtis Rourke ($7,300) Rourke would rank 5th of the six QBs available for me on this slate, facing a Notre Dame secondary that finished No. 1 nationally in pass D success rate and allowed just 12.9 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Zach Horton ($3,000) Horton is second on the team in routes run, playing over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps, and over 90% in each of the last two games to end the regular season. Tied for third on the team with four receiving touchdowns, though Notre Dame has yet to allow a tight end all season to score more than seven fantasy points in a game.
Pivot Play – RB Ty’Son Lawton ($4,600) The former James Madison transfer wound up leading the Hoosiers in rushing touchdowns (12), outperforming Ellison in the last three games. Six of the 11 rushing touchdowns allowed by the Irish this season came in the last three weeks, including USC averaging over seven yards per carry on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Relatively even distribution target-wise amongst the Indiana receivers, with five wideouts posting 36 or more targets in the regular season. For that reason, and the fact that Notre Dame allowed just one wide receiver to score more than 13 fantasy points this season is why we’re likely fading this room. Elijah Sarratt gets the obvious nod as the top option, leading the team in all receiving categories, but Indiana will rotate in Myles Price, Ke’Shawn Williams, Omar Cooper Jr. and Miles Cross.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($9,400) Leonard is the highest-priced QB on the slate, yet our third-highest projected QB, so far from a must. But he’s the best option on a Notre Dame team that spreads the football around in the passing game and enters Friday with a RB1 that is not 100%. The Hoosiers allowed just 11 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but some mediocre options found success against Indiana, with Jack Lausch, Will Howard and Billy Edwards all scoring at least 20 fantasy points. Leonard is far superior to each of the three.
Fade – WR Jayden Thomas ($3,100) Minimal cost for all ND receivers, and for good reason because the Irish don’t have an impact player at the position. You can throw a dart at anyone, aside from Thomas in my opinion, who played just 11% of the snaps in the finale vs. USC and is 8th on the team in routes run.
Bargain Bin – TE Mitchell Evans ($3,100) Not going to have Mitchell Evans as a core play, but he’s easily one of the top bargain bin options on the slate with how he closed the regular season. Three touchdowns in the last four games, with 19 of his 39 targets coming in that span. Evans would be just outside my Core Four.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremiyah Love ($7,500) or RB Jadarian Price ($5,300) Love is expected to be play, despite leaving the second half of the USC game with a leg injury. If we get any hints that Love is less than 100%, Price is a worthwhile pivot who also averaged over seven yards a carry for the season. Indiana’s rush defense is stout, ranking 3rd nationally in rush success rate, with just one running back (Roman Hemby) scoring over 19 fantasy points against the Hoosiers. And FWIW, Hemby had 48 yards and a TD on five receptions, along with a fluke 75-yard TD run in that game that contributed to his big day. We wouldn’t go overboard with Notre Dame running back exposure here.
Best of the Rest – WRs. No need to play any ND wideouts, as no player had more than three touchdown receptions, with the leading wideout (Beaux Collins) having just 18% of the team’s total target share. Collins, Jaden Greathouse, Jordan Faison and Kris Mitchell are the foursome to choose from if wanting some exposure, but limit one to a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s Core Four:
- QB Tyler Huff, Jacksonville State
- RB Tre Stewart, Jacksonville State
- Florida RB1 (whoever that ends up being)
- At least one of QB Parker Navarro or RB Anthony Tyus, Ohio
