Western Michigan vs. Nevada
Point-Spread: WMU -7
O/U Total: 56
Weather: Dome
WMU:
As is the case throughout bowl szn, we start our DFS writeups with who is “not” playing. WR2 Jaylen Hall is in the portal, and head coach Tim Lester confirmed during his bowl game presser that anyone in the portal will not participate in the bowl game. That means targets in bunches for WR1 Skyy Moore and WR2 Corey Crooms as that trio accounted for 80 percent of the target share – nobody else catches passes on this team. TE1 Anthony Torres is also in the portal so we can count him out as well. If looking to a third pass-catcher, Bryce Nunnelly seemingly would get the starting nod, but he plays primarily in the slot with Crooms so it would be a positional switch of sorts. Brett Borske, who did have a touchdown reception in the season finale, will start at tight end. Nevada is a middle-of-the-road Mountain West pass defense, allowing 226 yards per game through the air and 23.6 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year. Some mediocre QBs like Jonah Johnson and Hank Bachmeier had a great deal of success vs. the Wolfpack this season, both topping 40 fantasy points. Kaleb Eleby didn’t have the year we anticipated, but was still incredibly efficient with a 21-5 touchdown to interception ratio, completing 64 percent of his passes. Don’t think Eleby is a necessity for this two-gamer, but he’s also a QB that won’t kill your lineups either because of his high floor.
Sean Tyler looks to be the top play of the slate here with WMU being a near-touchdown favorite. There are some question marks as to whether La’Darius Jefferson will play (might be injured?), but he did tweet out “one last time” to fellow running back Jaxson Kincaide earlier in the month. Something to monitor pregame. The Wolfpack are average at best defending the run, allowing 18.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year, and Tyler was exceptional to close the year, averaging over 20 FPPG in MAC play. His value skyrockets if Jefferson is out. Kincaide will see sporadic work as the RB3, averaging around seven carries per game, and this is a revenge game of sorts being a former Nevada transfer. Western Michigan is 17th in Rush Play Success Rate and 14th in Line Yards so they should be able to dominate on the ground. This won’t be like North Texas on Thursday who struggled to run the football because this Nevada defense doesn’t have the luxury of stacking the box with Eleby and this passing game.
Nevada:
M.A.S.H unit for the Wolfpack on Monday with half of its coaching staff gone to Colorado State and nearly 20 players not participating, including Carson Strong, Cole Turner and practically the entire receiving corps. Sentiment that I gather from reading up here is that it’s going to be run, run, and run some more under interim head coach Vai Taua, a former Nevada running back, leading the charge and both Toa Taua and Devonte Lee scheduled to participate. Does that mean lock both players into our lineups? Not necessarily, as we saw Thursday with the North Texas/Miami Ohio game. Feels like a near certainty that WMU will load the box, daring new starting quarterback Nate Cox to beat them with this depleted receiving corps that combined to catch just 16 passes during the regular season. Nevada also lost a couple transfers along the offensive line since the end of the season, and graded out extremely poorly, ranking 107th in Line Yards and 108th in Stuff Rate. I won’t mess with Lee, but Taua does get some consideration here as he is an adept pass-catcher with 37 receptions. If it was just Strong opting out, I might’ve given Nate Cox some consideration here as he’s a decent athlete with a strong arm and some experience coming over from the JUCO level a few years ago, but I can’t get there with all the uncertainty at receiver. Evidence Njoku, a former UCLA transfer, hasn’t played all year, yet is listed atop the depth chart along with slot receiver Jamaal Bell and Tyrese Mack. Gun to my head, I’d lean towards Bell here as the Nevada WR of preference. A former 3-star recruit, Bell is the most experienced of that trio and serves as the team’s starting kick returner as well. Should be Cox’s safety valve in the slot. In all honesty, I’m fine fully fading the Nevada offense.