Wake Forest @ Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -4.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Wake Forest:
As good as Sam Hartman has been this year, you simply cannot play him at $10,300. And as dismal of a season as Clemson has had, the Tigers are still pretty good on defense, particularly against the pass where they’re allowing just 17.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s, have given up just nine total passing touchdowns in 10 games, and 13th in Pass Play Success Rate. Working in the favor of Hartman is potential game script as the line has somehow moved even further towards the Clemson side, now 4.5-point favorites. Working against Hartman will be a depleted receiving corps that is likely to be without Jaquarii Roberson and Ke’Shawn Williams, though the Deacs still have plenty of talent leftover at the position. A.T. Perry saw a boatload of targets vs. NC State once Roberson went down – 19 to be exact – though only converted into five receptions. With Roberson and Williams out, that means Taylor Morin will be inserted into the coveted slot role which he’s much better suited for at his size and with his shiftiness. As the sure-fire No. 2 option with Hartman throwing him the rock at $4,200, even with Clemson’s secondary, I think he enters the mix. Former Stanford transfer Donald Stewart will start opposite Perry as the WR3, with freshman Jahmal Banks in the rotation as a fourth option. Clemson is allowing just 12.9 FPPG to opposing WR1s and 8.0 FPPG to WR2s this season so probably a stay-away spot outside of maybe Morin. If Christian Beal-Smith is out for the second-straight week, maybe we give Justice Ellison a look at $4,300 after rushing for two touchdowns vs. NC State, but the Tigers are giving up just 11.4 FPPG to RB1s – ninth best in the country. As good as Clemson is against the pass, they’re even better at stopping the run, ranked 2nd in Rush Play Success Rate.
Clemson:
Vegas is projecting 30 points this week from the Clemson offense, and at first glance I was in disbelief, but they have reached that mark in the last three games. Let’s start with the injuries. Justyn Ross is out for the season, and Joe Ngata is out this week. That means we’ll see a starting trio of Beaux Collins, Dacari Collins and E.J. Williams on Saturday who combined for 12 receptions on 25 total target with Dacari, who took the place of Ross, seeing 12 of those passes directed his way. I know Williams is the most experienced of the trio and is min priced, but if we’re assuming the Clemson offense plays the way it has majority of the season – meaning two outside receivers getting most of the target share – than the Collins’ bros are the best bet here. For better or worse, mostly worse this season, D.J. Uiagalelei will likely start on Saturday as he’s had a good week of practice per head coach Dabo Swinney and Taisun Phommachanh being doubtful. I understand the implied team total and that Wake Forest is allowing over 30 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but if you couldn’t get it done against UConn, why should we believe its possible this week? Better options in DJU’s price range that I will completely fade him.
Running back is where things get mildly interesting as both Will Shipley and Kobe Pace are expected back this week after being held out for precautionary reasons. WF is 120th in Rush Play Success Rate, 115th in Rush Play Explosiveness defensively, and are allowing over 19 FPPG this season to RB1s. Shipley probably doesn’t project well enough at 16.9 fantasy points to make him worth considering for me here, though the matchup is good. His 47-yard performance against Louisville with just one target in the passing game has me shying away with some equal-to-better plays at cheap prices. Clemson got DJU, Kobe Pace and Phil Mafah involved in the running game so I’m unsure they’re giving the FR a full workload.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Okla -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 20 mph winds
Iowa State:
Not a lot of secrets as to where the ball is going with the Iowa State offense. Breece Hall is matchup-proof, averaging 29.7 FPPG and has hit 20 fantasy points in all but two games this season. As the highest priced RB on the slate, we need 30+ to make salary and that’s happened just once this season by an opposing RB against Oklahoma with Deuce Vaughn scoring 31.5. How many rushing yards did Vaughn have against the Sooners? Just 51 on 15 carries. Iowa State’s offensive coordinator was asked this week about Hall’s impact in the passing game and I’ll be curious to see if that’s an emphasis to get him the ball coming out of the backfield against the Sooners. QB Brock Purdy is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season against Texas Tech, but much of that was due to game script where the Cyclones were trailing by multiple scores. The senior QB did complete 76 percent of his throws but also tossed two interceptions. Game script could be in the favor of Purdy again this week as a 4-point underdog, and Oklahoma has allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.
Purdy is definitely in the discussion here, as is his No. 1 target in Xavier Hutchinson. We spoke last week about Oklahoma’s struggles with bigger-bodied receivers, and while Tyquan Thornton didn’t have a massive outing, he did still find the end-zone vs. the Sooners, scoring 14 fantasy points. On the year, Oklahoma is allowing 23.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s. If there is a wildcard on ISU, look at true freshman slot receiver Jaylin Noel, whom Matt Campbell has spoken glowingly about this week, as he now has 10 receptions on 14 targets in the last two games alone. We had success last week with Charlie Kolar finally, posted 8-76-2 on a team-high 10 targets. Probably not going down that path again this week as Oklahoma gives up under 4.0 FPPG to tight ends this season, but he is a clear No. 2 option in a passing game that really only has 2.5 options so.
Oklahoma:
Projections suggest we aren’t touching Oklahoma this week and can probably eliminate everyone from the player pool. And ya know what, I could use a stress-free weekend not rooting for the Sooners’ offense to come alive because something is just off with that group this year. HC Lincoln Riley said that Caleb Williams’ hand is fine and that he should be good to go this week, so while Spencer Rattler did make an appearance against Baylor, I’m not really worried about him getting significant playing time unless Williams is poor again. Statistically, Iowa State is still second in the Big 12, allowing under 200 yards passing per game, but also just gave up 30+ fantasy points to a second-year QB making his first start last week at Texas Tech. Williams is viable in GPPs only as he’s likely to have under five percent ownership in bigger contests. Much of that same logic applies to RB1 Kennedy Brooks as well, facing Iowa State’s No. 2 rush defense in the conference that allows just 13.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s. That said, they were dominated at the point of attack last week, allowing 207 yards and over six yards a carry. I completely bypassed Brooks when constructing my initial rosters, so safe to assume many others are too. One feather in the cap for Brooks is that he continues to see the bulk of the carries over Eric Gray so there really isn’t any concern of losing volume. GPP play only for Brooks.
We’re back to the silly rotation at receiver where Drake Stoops saw more snaps in the slot last week over Marvin Mims. What are we doing here?!?! I suppose I haven’t been paying enough attention but PFF does show Mims has kicked outside more, but is still sharing time with Mike Woods who led the Sooners in targets (6) last week. If that’s going to be the rotation moving forward, then Mario Williams is out of consideration as he saw just 10 offensive snaps vs. Baylor. Jadon Haselwood saw the most, as he has for much of the year, but did little on the field with two receptions on three targets. There is no need to pair Caleb Williams with any receiver should you choose to roster him.
Michigan State @ Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -19
O/U Total: 68.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan State:
I think we’re only looking to the Michigan State side here in a game stack with OSU players, hoping this turns into a shootout. The O/U total has risen since the start of the week, so maybe that’s possible? WR corps should remain the same this week with Jayden Reed, Tre Mosley and Montorie Foster comprising the top three, combining for 20 of the 30 targets last week vs. Maryland. I’m seeing some tea leaves that Jalen Nailor could be available for Saturday, but likely not at 100 percent with a hand injury. QB Payton Thorne is likely to see under five percent ownership at $7k with so many punt options available at the position, but similarly to the receivers, I really only want him in a game stack situation. Ohio State is allowing 22.9 FPPG to opposing QBs and 73rd in Pass Play Success Rate. Should be a high-floor game for Thorne is a good game script, but don’t see much upside, especially without Nailor.
Last time I said we need to sit Kenneth Walker, he proceeded to run for five touchdowns against my Michigan Wolverines and broke the slate. I think this situation is a bit different on the road against a better opponent. The Buckeyes will have the distinct advantage in the trenches as OSU is 6th in Defensive Line Yards, 8th in Rush Play Success Rate and 28th in Rush Play Explosiveness defensively. MSU does not boast a dominant run blocking group along the offensive line.
Ohio State:
Keeping this one brief because we’ve covered Ohio State ad nauseum this year on the Main Slate. Fire up the Buckeye passing game everywhere against the worst pass defense in the country. That O/U has jumped a few points even this week so expect a high-scoring affair. Michigan State is allowing 28.4 FPPG to opposing QBs so CJ Stroud is obviously in play. Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have nearly identical projections this week, and all received at least 10 targets vs. Purdue last Saturday. JSN is the GPP play of the group as he has the highest salary of the three, and I actually like his matchup the best as MSU has been carved up through the middle of the field this year where their linebackers and strong safety are terrible in coverage. We benefitted last week with Maryland tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo as the Spartans have allowed the most fantasy points in the country to opposing TE1s so maybe we even look to Jeremy Ruckert here as well.
TreVeyon Henderson is the ultimate leverage play this week as everyone and their mothers will be focused on the OSU passing game. At $8.5k, we probably need 30+ points out of the freshman running back, and the Michigan State defense hasn’t allowed a RB1 to top 24 fantasy points all season, giving up just 12.9 FPPG on average. Is that just a product of teams carving up MSU through the air? Nope, Michigan State is just good at defending the run, ranked 26th in Rush Play Success Rate. I’ll be underweight on Henderson this week.
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