UTEP vs. Fresno State
Point-Spread: Fresno -11.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Weather: 44 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
UTEP:
Here’s the good news – this is UTEP’s first bowl appearance since 2014 and Dana Dimel gets to keep his job. Bad news…the Miners come in on a cold streak, winning just once in their final five games this season. While the W/L column suffered late in the year against stronger opponents, the Miners actually averaged more PPG (25.6) in that stretch than at the beginning of the season so the offense did hold up their end of the bargain. Sophomore QB Gavin Hardison upped his statistical numbers in every category as a second-year starter, completing 56 percent of his throws for 2,971 yards and 17 touchdowns, though he struggled with turnovers, tossing 12 interceptions. Projected at 19 fantasy points with just a $5,600 price tag, I don’t think he’s the worst option given UTEP is a double-digit dog and he’ll be forced to throw – averaged 34 attempts per game over the last five games compared to just 22 att/g in the first seven weeks. Biggest issue is Fresno State is strongest on the backend, ranking 7th in Pass Play Success Rate.
What benefits Hardison is having arguably one of the better trios of wide receivers in Conference USA with Jacob Cowing, Justin Garrett and Tyrin Smith. One observation I’ve noticed right now with Cowing when compiling some research. We have the sophomore receiver projected at 20 fantasy points, and PrizePicks has him at 21. I’ve seen at another website where he’s closer to 14 fantasy points. Does Cowing meet somewhere in the middle or is someone way off in their projection? Because if he falls closer to the higher end of that spectrum, Cowing is a bargain then at $6,400. We mentioned Fresno is strong on the backend, but WR1s have had some success against the Bulldogs this year, averaging 17.1 FPPG against this secondary. That number drops to just 5.9 FPPG for the opposing WR2s. Fresno State’s boundary corners do grade out the highest so Cowing does have a favorable matchup in the slot, and could see lower ownership with the other talented playmakers on the slate. Garrett doesn’t have nearly the upside that Cowing does, having scored just four touchdowns this season and topping 100 yards just twice, but does average over seven targets a game and a safe bet to get you double-digit fantasy points. Smith has seen an uptick in playing time the last five games, averaging five targets per game in that span with three receiving touchdowns. We have Smith projected close to 11 fantasy points which might be worth it at $3,600.
Admittedly did not watch many UTEP games as the season went along, but appears as though Deion Hankins has reassumed his role as the team’s starting RB over Ronald Awatt as he led the Miners with 16 attempts in the finale and listed atop the depth chart currently. Probably not the matchup we consider either player as UTEP has struggled to run the football with any consistency all year. Dead last in Rush Play Success Rate and 125th in Line Yards, while Fresno State is 22nd in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. Allowed just 16.1 FPPG to RB1s in 2021.
Fresno State:
Welp, the main Fresno State site that covers football is chock full of recruiting day coverage with very little on the bowl game as of Friday morning. So, I have no clue as to whether Jake Haener will be playing on Saturday after dipping his toes in the transfer portal before eventually deciding to return to the Bulldogs. In his video apology to Fresno State fans, Haener indicated he’s excited to play for new head coach Jeff Tedford…in 2022. Does that mean he won’t play in the bowl game? I’ve seen guesses on both sides of the coin. We currently have Haener in our projections at 21.7 fantasy points as there is no indication he won’t play, so we’ll just have to monitor this leading up until Saturday afternoon. Haener had a strong close to the year, throwing seven touchdowns in the final two games, and would face a UTEP defense that allowed 21.2 FPPG to opposing QBs in the regular season. If we get word that Haener is not playing, it would be Logan Fife or Jaylen Henderson getting the nod – a combined 21 collegiate passes attempted between them. DK firmly believes it would be Fife given his $6,900 price tag which I wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole.
This is totally a situation that you’d think Ronnie Rivers would sit out a lesser-tier bowl game, but the man with 671 career attempts clearly loves college football. Projection and salary make him a viable lineup candidate in DFS, but if Fresno jumps out to a big lead, does Rivers decide at some point its not worth risking injury with an NFL career likely in his future. The Bulldogs also have a very capable backup in Jordan Mims who scored 34 fantasy points against both Nevada and San Diego State earlier in the year. My initial lean here is we avoid this situation as UTEP is very strong in the front seven, ranking 9th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively and allowed the 9th fewest FPPG to opposing RB1s in the entire country this season.
Obviously, the decision to play Haener or not Saturday has a significant impact on our interest in the Fresno State receivers. I’ll run the risk of fading completely if Haener is ruled out. Jalen Cropper really slowed down over the final five games after his scorching start to the year, closing with just one touchdown in the final five games. His targets dropped significantly as well, averaging just eight per game over the last six weeks. His aDOT dropped to just 7.7 this season and averaged just 11 yards per catch – 14.1 YPC in 2020. WR2 Josh Kelly has the best matchup of any receiver, lining up opposite defensive back Torey Richardson who grades out very poorly according to PFF. Kelly should have minimal ownership in larger GPPs at $5,300. Keric Wheatfall emerged down the stretch as the WR3 with 26 targets and three touchdowns in the final five games. Ty Jones and Erik Brooks are rotational receivers with minimal production. Tight end Juan Rodriguez had his best game of the season in the finale with 5-35-1 on six targets which made up for a third of his production for the entire year. Rodriguez is min priced and UTEP gave up close to 6.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s on the season, but that’s a limited upside play with the surplus of receivers Fresno has.
UAB vs. BYU
Point-Spread: BYU -6.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 75% rain / 14 mph winds
UAB:
Latest update as of Friday afternoon is that a previously questionable DeWayne McBride is “full-go” and expected to play on Saturday. UAB’s offensive line has not been as advertised this season despite returning all five starters, but the Blazers are still 45th in Line Yards and 63rd in Rush Play Success Rate. Nowhere near the numbers we expected at the start of the year, but that’s a group that should be able to find some success moving this BYU front seven. The Cougars have undoubtedly faced the tougher schedule of the two teams, but BYU allowed over 23 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 88th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. Jermaine Brown Jr. remains an option at $4,300 but he is severely downgraded with McBride playing. Does help that RB3 Lucious Stanley is in the transfer portal, so the only player Brown is battling for carries will be McBride.
I’ll rarely invest in the UAB passing game, and this is another one of those situations despite a favorable game script as a touchdown underdog. Dylan Hopkins scored 20 fantasy points just three times this season and posted single-digit fantasy points four times. Low ceiling / low upside means I’m completely out. WR Rajae Johnson had nine targets in the last two games, but landed in the transfer portal so I assume he won’t play. WR1 Trae Shropshire had a decent year as a first-time starter, averaging over 27 yards per catch with six touchdowns, but converted on just 52 percent of his targets. High upside, but low floor option that I probably won’t risk in this matchup. UAB’s top option in the passing game this season has been tight end Gerrit Prince who finished with a team-high eight receiving touchdowns. BYU fared well against opposing TE’s this season, allowing just 4.2 FPPG with only three tight ends scoring eight or more fantasy points against them. Hail Mary options that should see considerable playing time but probably won’t contribute much would be slot receiver A.J. Davis, Samario Rudolph (start in place of Rajae Johnson) and H-Back Hayden Pittman.
BYU:
Surprised to see BYU favored by just a touchdown here as I do think they are a considerably better team, and I now see that line has dropped to 6.5. How motivated, though, will the Cougars be after playing a schedule that was littered with P5 opponents, now having to face a C-USA team in UAB that didn’t play up to standard in 2021. Maybe the weather keeps this game closer as well now with 14 mph winds and 77 percent chance of rain now expected. This matchup will be strength on strength in the trenches as BYU wants to run the football with RB1 Tyler Allgeier but will be running into the teeth of the UAB defense that is 8th in Rush Play Success Rate and allowed just 11.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season – fifth best mark in the entire country. Still believe Allgeier will find running room as he did for much of the season, but will UAB be able to load the box now with the weather altering the BYU passing attack. Benefit to rostering Allgeier is that there is really only one player challenging him for carries in quarterback Jaren Hall who averages around six attempts per game. Love the floor that Hall provides as a dual-threat, as he failed to top 17 fantasy points just once all season long, and the UAB game-plan defensively will likely be to force the QB1 to beat them through the air. Blazers have struggled defending quarterbacks, allowing over 26 FPPG this season and are 111th in Pass Play Explosiveness allowed. I’d love Hall as an option if the weather wasn’t a factor.
Looks like Neil Pau’u will be out again at receiver as he’s not listed on the team depth chart for this week, meaning we’ll see the same starting trio that faced USC in the finale with Gunner Romney, Puka Nacua and Samson Nacua. That squarely puts Samson in play this week at min pricing as he led the Cougars with seven targets vs. the Trojans win Week 13. Romney being back in the lineup downgrades Keanu Hill who also had a big day vs. USC with 4-72-1 on five targets. Puka has been a consistent factor in the passing game since entering the starting lineup midseason, having found the end-zone in five of the last six games. With Isaac Rex out for the season, starting duties fall on Dallin Holker who was targeted a combined eight times vs. USC and Idaho State. Tight end usage for BYU has been down this season even when Rex was in the lineup, but UAB allows over 8 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season.
Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty
Point-Spread: Lib -9.5
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
EMU:
Game script should favor Ben Bryant and this EMU passing game as the line has now moved up to 9.5 – probably a result of confirmation that Malik Willis will be playing on Saturday. It was a BAD end to the year for this Eagles offense, in particular Bryant, who failed to top eight fantasy points in either of the last two games and didn’t account for a single touchdown. Willis gets the Liberty headlines, but this defense is legit that Bryant will be facing, limiting teams to just 315 YPG which is 10th best in the country and were 5th in pass yards per game allowed. Add in a 10 percent sack rate and 35 percent pressure rate and Bryant figures to be under fire all game. And a player as immobile as Bryant…that spells trouble. On the season, Liberty allowed just 18.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s. I’m assuming those that are playing Saturday have followed along throughout the season so no deep dive here from me with the Eastern Michigan trio of Hassan Beydoun, Tanner Knue and Dylan Drummond at receiver. I don’t see any matchups that favor one receiver over the other, and Liberty has allowed the third fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs in the country. Volume should be there, and the trio combined for 30 targets last time out in a blowout loss to Central Michigan, but no need to jam anyone in. The Flames are more susceptible to giving up yardage on the ground, ranking 68th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively, but Eastern Michigan averages just 3.4 YPC and rotates between three running backs. No interest in the EMU backfield.
Liberty:
Lineups start and end with Malik Willis on Saturday. All indications are that Willis will start, and have to assume he’ll play all four quarters or until this game turns to a blowout, which I expect will happen. This is a showcase game for Willis in front of NFL Scouts in his last showing before the Combine, and faces an Eastern Michigan defense that is 82nd in scoring, allowing nearly 28 PPG. The Eagles gave up just 22 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but much of that is due to game script where opponents really didn’t have to take to the air against an EMU defense that ranked 10th in the MAC. And guess what…Liberty doesn’t have a prolific running back that can bleed the clock. For all intents and purposes, that’s Willis who led the team in yards (820) and touchdowns (11). That means minimal interest in the Liberty backfield as it’s typically a three-man rotation between Joshua Mack, T.J. Green and Shedro Louis. It appears as though Louis is listed on the team depth chart this week, but he did not play in the finale vs. Army. Something to watch for. We haven’t seen a Liberty running back top 10 carries in a game since Week 10, though if the Flames jump out to a big lead like we suspect will happen Saturday, maybe a $4,400 player like Mack is possibly in play.
As is the case with the running backs, we have a carousel at receiver where no wideout accounts for more than 19 percent of the target share. Slot-man Demario Douglas leads the team in said category and does have the best matchup of the bunch where EMU’s nickel corner grades out incredibly poorly. At $5,800, though, with the spread out target share as we indicated, might be better off looking to someone like CJ Daniels who is the team’s big-play threat, averaging over 16 YPC and an aDOT of 15.0. Daniels leads the team with seven receiving TDs and get a discounted price at $5k. Kevin Shaa and Noah Frith are essentially the same player with the former seeing about double the offensive snaps so no strong opinion there.
Utah State vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: Oreg St -7
O/U Total: 67.5
Weather: Dome
Utah St:
Highest total of the slate and the best weather game of the day, obviously being in a dome, so this looks to be the game to target. And to my initial surprise, Utah State’s got a nice implied total here of 30.5 so can’t ignore the Mountain West champs here despite going up in class facing a P5 opponent. Logan Bonner is an option at $7,700 facing a marginal Oregon State defense from a Pac-12 standard, ranking 67th in Pass Play Success Rate and allow around 26 FPPG to opposing QB1s. I know San Diego State was missing some defenders, but Bonner proved himself against an elite defense during championship weekend, completing 29-of-42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns. Benefitting Bonner is having one of the best WR corps in the Mountain West with WR1 Deven Thompkins who finished second in the country in targets (150), along with WR2 Derek Wright and slot-man Brandon Bowling who have seen an uptick in production in recent weeks. The latter has been the receiver trending up of late with six touchdowns in the last six games, including eight receptions in the MWC championship game. Bowling and Thompkins should have VERY favorable matchups in the slot matched up with nickel corner Ron Hardge III who grades out poorly in coverage. Looking at the receivers that have succeeded against the Oregon State defense this season, its been a healthy mix of slot and outside wideouts so have no issue rostering any other the three. 6-foot-6 Justin McGriff has also found the end-zone in four of the last six games, but is targeted far less than the other three.
Revenge game of sorts here for RB1 Calvin Tyler Jr. who gets to face off against his former team so you know he’ll be amped for this matchup. Utah State’s offensive line struggled running the football, ranking 110th in Line Yards and 126th in Rush Success Rate, but if Tyler can run for 64 yards and a touchdown against San Diego State, I have confidence he can at least match that against a Beavers defense that gave up 21.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Tyler feels underpriced at $4,900 for someone who should see the bulk of the rushing volume and probably overlooked by DFS players in GPPs.
Oregon St:
Malik Willis should be the first player you enter into your lineups. Oregon State RB B.J. Baylor should be second. Utah State allowed 25.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season, and Baylor runs behind one of the best offensive lines in the entire country. The Beavers as a team average nearly six yards per carry, are 3rd in Rush Play Success Rate and are 3rd in the country in Line Yards. If stats don’t lie, Oregon State should dominate the line of scrimmage on Saturday. QB Chance Nolan looks like a safe play at $7k projected at over 21 fantasy points, and he’s played well of late, completing over 68 percent of his passes in the last three games with five touchdowns. Career-high 308 passing yards vs. Oregon in the regular season finale, and the Aggies are just 97th in Pass Play Success Rate this season. If arguing against Nolan, it would be the fact that Oregon State can likely control the game with the running game, Utah State allowed just 20 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season and the Beavers will incorporate backup Jack Colletto as a wildcat QB – eight rushing touchdowns on 30 attempts. High-floor / low-upside option in my opinion.
We avoid WRs in the state of Oregon for DFS purposes. We’ve harped on the Oregon Ducks all year long, but we have a similar situation with the Beavers. Senior Trevon Bradford is the best bet of the group, and he is two receptions shy of 10th place on the school’s all-time receiving list if you’re looking for a storyline. Tied for a team-high with 6-79-1 on eight targets in the loss to Oregon, and all five of his receiving touchdowns coming in the last six weeks. WR2 Tre’Shaun Harrison is suspended for the first half of the bowl game due to a targeting penalty so he’s out of our player pool. Top beneficiary to Harrison being out is sophomore Zeriah Beason who has also seen a slight uptick in production with nine targets in the last two games. Tight end production has been infrequent for Oregon State this year, but talented 6-foot-6 sophomore Luke Musgrave had a season-high 7-85-1 on eight targets in his last game. Utah State allows close to 7.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s.
Louisiana vs. Marshall
Point-Spread: ULL -5
O/U Total: 55.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 66% rain / 3 mph winds
Louisiana:
Going to steal a line that I used a few weeks ago from my DFS writeup on Championship Weekend – Louisiana is the Georgia of the Sun Belt when it comes to daily fantasy. Not in that the Cajuns are a dominant team like UGA, but that we rarely have any rosterable pieces at any position because of how they spread the ball around. That changes a bit for Saturday with the ULL backfield as starter Chris Smith has already been announced out. So instead of a three-headed backfield, we now have just two to choose from in Emani Bailey and Montrell Johnson – both of whom are viable given their reasonable price points, facing a Marshall defense that was 12th in Conference USA defending the run. Bailey has trending upwards of late with double-digit carries in each of the last three games, including last week’s 117-yard performance against a superior App State defense. Marshall is not App State, allowing 17.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Johnson seems to be hitting a bit of a freshman wall with single digit carries in the last two weeks, but we know the rotational patterns of this ULL backfield. Johnson will see 10+ attempts with Smith out.
We could get a surprise like we did two weeks ago with Levi Lewis being in the winning GPP lineup in the afternoon slate, but those are too few and far in-between for me to invest in that happening again. Marshall’s secondary is the strength of the defense, ranking 24th in Pass Play PPA, 36th in Pass Play Success Rate and 49th in Pass Play Explosiveness. During the regular season, Marshall allowed just 18.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Lewis will also be down one of his better receivers with Peter LeBlanc being ruled out. Rain in warmer weather isn’t a major factor but we are looking at 66 percent chance of precipitation as well which could affect the passing games some. Complete fade of the ULL passing game for me.
Marshall:
Grant Wells is confirmed healthy and expected to start after missing the second half of the finale vs. Western Kentucky. That’s good news for the skill position players, but I’m out at his pricing of $8,300 given he’s thrown one or fewer touchdowns in seven of the 12 games he’s played in 2021. Much like Marshall, the secondary is the strength of the ULL defense, ranked 9th in Pass Play Success Rate and giving up just 19.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Should see some lower ownership percentages in larger GPPs if looking to be contrarian and should see a positive game script that’ll boost numbers – Wells’ 34.8 passing attempts per game ranks 16th in the country. Projection of 21.02 fantasy points doesn’t warrant starting Wells at that price tag.
WR1 Corey Gammage is priced appropriately after his finish to the regular season with 23 receptions on 35 targets with two scores in the final four weeks. He’ll have a significant size advantage over Louisiana CB Eric Garror who stands just 5-foot-9. That said, it’s a steep price to pay against this secondary where WR1s average just 14.1 FPPG on the year. Talik Keaton and former Vanderbilt transfer Jayden Harrison are splitting time in the slot which diminishes their value, but both are cheap, particularly Harrison sitting at min pricing. He’s received at least three targets in seven of the last eight games. Willie Johnson starts opposite Gammage on the outside and is a big play waiting to happen with his YPC and aDOT averages both above 19.0. The Cajuns allowed just 4.1 FPPG to tight ends during the regular season, but there really aren’t a surplus of talented options within the Sun Belt. Xavier Gaines will be the best TE Louisiana faces all year. At least two receptions in every game played this season, averaging just under five targets per.
RB1 Rasheen Ali has been one of the best running backs in the college fantasy landscape all year, both as a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield. Of the two phases on defense, Louisiana is most vulnerable on the ground, ranking 80th in Rush Play Success Rate and giving up 16.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Ali is typically in play no matter the pricing as he’s been targeted 54 times on the season with 45 receptions which puts him second on the team. I honestly don’t have an argument against having Ali in your lineups Saturday as a core building block. Backup Sheldon Evans gets a few carries here and there but has hit 10 attempts in just one game all year. This is Ali’s backfield.