To gain access to all of theCFFsite’s exclusive DFS content, as well as Weekly Player Projections, click here to see membership options for the 2022 season.
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.
LSU vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: LSU -8.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: LSU 27.5 – Aub 19
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($7,700) Daniels is the only player we have projected to score more than 12 fantasy points this week, but we’re also monitoring his status for Saturday night. All signs to Daniels playing, but he did leave the game against New Mexico with a back injury. Likely just precautionary in a blowout scenario, and Brian Kelly said this week he had no residual effects in practice. Auburn is only allowing 15 FPPG to opposing QBs in 2022, but are 85th in pass play success rate and 88th in yards per pass allowed.
Fade – WR Jaray Jenkins ($5,600) Third among LSU receivers in snaps played, fourth in routes run and fourth in total targets (14). Clearly an integral part of the LSU passing game, but why is he the most expensive option? Rhetorical question, I know it’s his three receiving touchdowns which leads the team, but we’ll roll with Boutte or Nabers here.
Bargain Bin – WR Kayshon Boutte ($3,200) Who’d a thunk it that we would see a possible 2023 first round NFL Draft receiver at just $3.2k? I don’t want to say lock it in just yet, but it’ll be tough not to. Averaging 6.25 targets per game. Probably would have more than 10 receptions had it not been for three drops already. And there is a TON of motivation for Boutte this week. Called out publicly by a former teammate (more on that below) and is a new father – why he missed last week.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Nabers ($4,700) Everyone will be flocking to Boutte. Big name, cheap salary. But Malik Nabers has been LSU’s best receiver this season with at least five receptions in three of the four games played. Think this is a very strong pivot scenario here
Best of the Rest – RB Noah Cain ($3,800) I believe it would be Cain ahead of John Emery ($3,000) to get the starting nod with Goodwin now out due to injury, but we’ll see a 50-50 split in the LSU backfield. Heavy lean towards Cain of the two with 37% of his carries coming inside the red-zone.
Injury Notes – RB Armoni Goodwin ($3,600) Goodwin is out with what is described as a significant hamstring injury. He’ll be sidelined for a while.
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Tank Bigsby ($6,300) Will we be rostering Bigsby this week? No, but who else is there here? The junior running back is still garnering 54% of the backfield market share so between 15-20 touches is expected every week. But the LSU defense is playing like one of the best groups in the country right now. The Tigers are allowing just 8.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far this season.
Fade – WRs. This is going to be a run-based offense now with Robby Ashford under center. Auburn threw the ball just 18 times last week against Missouri. Typical starters Ja’Varrius Johnson and Shedrick Jackson combined for all of one reception for two targets.
Bargain Bin – WR Koy Moore ($3,200) That said, this is a motivation game for LSU transfer Koy Moore who just so happened to see his most extensive playing time of the season last week. 4-74-0 on a team-high six targets, playing 53 of the 66 available offensive snaps. I don’t think anyone agrees with his statement that he’s better than Kayshon Boutte, though (link). Yikes.
Pivot Play – QB Robby Ashford ($5,200) For as good as LSU has been at stopping the run, they’ve been better defending the pass. 17th in pass play success rate, allowing just 15 FPPG to opposing QBs thus far, and are fourth in the SEC with 11 team sacks. Ashford projects decently for a $5.2K quarterback at 21 fantasy points this week which is the only reason he’s listed here. But I’m the first to admit that feels too high as Ashford could only must 15 fantasy points last week against Missouri.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati vs. Tulsa
Point-Spread: Cin -10.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Cin 34.5 – Tulsa 24
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Ben Bryant ($8,000) Remember at the start of the year when we thought Bryant would lose his job at some point to Evan Prater? We look like idiots now because Bryant is slinging the pill, averaging 304 yards per game with 11 touchdowns, including a season-high four last week against Indiana. Tulsa pass defense is statistically performing better than the run defense, but not by much. 80th in pass play success rate and opposing QBs are averaging 32.4 FPPG. Also helps that Cincinnati is such a poor rushing team in 2022 that the Bearcats need to revert to throwing.
Fade – WR Jadon Thompson ($4,600) 41, 32, 35 and then a season-low 17 offensive snaps last week against Indiana. Not sure if he got injured but Thompson didn’t see a single target either. I think we we’re seeing is Hawaii transfer Nick Mardner ($3,800) get more comfortable with the new offensive scheme, and his reps are increasing as a result. Mardner’s snap counts? 19, 20, 23 and then 35 last week.
Bargain Bin – See above regarding Mardner.
Pivot Play – WR Tyler Scott ($7,100) I think I’m just jaded by the last few seasons where Cincinnati didn’t really have a go-to receiver. Alec Pierce, I suppose, was that guy, but his production was even inconsistent. Scott has been one of the best receivers in the country over the first month, averaging 9.5 targets per game with five receiving touchdowns in the last three weeks. Six different wide receivers have scored 14 or more fantasy points against Tulsa this year, where opposing WR1s are averaging 20.5 FPPG.
Best of the Rest – WR Tre Tucker ($5,900) The Robin to Scott’s Batman, Tucker has turned up the production the past two games with 12 receptions and 197 receiving yards. In fact, if you eliminate the blowout against Kennesaw State from the equation, Tucker is averaging 8.5 targets per game in the three competitive contests Cincinnati has played.As far as the Cincinnati running game, it’s been atrocious honestly, whether that’s Charles McClelland ($6,200) or Corey Kiner ($5,300). 92nd in rush play success rate offensively and 112th in second level yards so the running backs are getting hit close to the line of scrimmage. And it looks like the running backs are playing a big part in this because the advanced data for the offensive line really isn’t that bad. Battle of weakness on weakness here because Tulsa is 117th in defensive rush play success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulsa:
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.