LSU vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: LSU -8.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: LSU 27.5 – Aub 19
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($7,700) Daniels is the only player we have projected to score more than 12 fantasy points this week, but we’re also monitoring his status for Saturday night. All signs to Daniels playing, but he did leave the game against New Mexico with a back injury. Likely just precautionary in a blowout scenario, and Brian Kelly said this week he had no residual effects in practice. Auburn is only allowing 15 FPPG to opposing QBs in 2022, but are 85th in pass play success rate and 88th in yards per pass allowed.
Fade – WR Jaray Jenkins ($5,600) Third among LSU receivers in snaps played, fourth in routes run and fourth in total targets (14). Clearly an integral part of the LSU passing game, but why is he the most expensive option? Rhetorical question, I know it’s his three receiving touchdowns which leads the team, but we’ll roll with Boutte or Nabers here.
Bargain Bin – WR Kayshon Boutte ($3,200) Who’d a thunk it that we would see a possible 2023 first round NFL Draft receiver at just $3.2k? I don’t want to say lock it in just yet, but it’ll be tough not to. Averaging 6.25 targets per game. Probably would have more than 10 receptions had it not been for three drops already. And there is a TON of motivation for Boutte this week. Called out publicly by a former teammate (more on that below) and is a new father – why he missed last week.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Nabers ($4,700) Everyone will be flocking to Boutte. Big name, cheap salary. But Malik Nabers has been LSU’s best receiver this season with at least five receptions in three of the four games played. Think this is a very strong pivot scenario here
Best of the Rest – RB Noah Cain ($3,800) I believe it would be Cain ahead of John Emery ($3,000) to get the starting nod with Goodwin now out due to injury, but we’ll see a 50-50 split in the LSU backfield. Heavy lean towards Cain of the two with 37% of his carries coming inside the red-zone.
Injury Notes – RB Armoni Goodwin ($3,600) Goodwin is out with what is described as a significant hamstring injury. He’ll be sidelined for a while.
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Tank Bigsby ($6,300) Will we be rostering Bigsby this week? No, but who else is there here? The junior running back is still garnering 54% of the backfield market share so between 15-20 touches is expected every week. But the LSU defense is playing like one of the best groups in the country right now. The Tigers are allowing just 8.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far this season.
Fade – WRs. This is going to be a run-based offense now with Robby Ashford under center. Auburn threw the ball just 18 times last week against Missouri. Typical starters Ja’Varrius Johnson and Shedrick Jackson combined for all of one reception for two targets.
Bargain Bin – WR Koy Moore ($3,200) That said, this is a motivation game for LSU transfer Koy Moore who just so happened to see his most extensive playing time of the season last week. 4-74-0 on a team-high six targets, playing 53 of the 66 available offensive snaps. I don’t think anyone agrees with his statement that he’s better than Kayshon Boutte, though (link). Yikes.
Pivot Play – QB Robby Ashford ($5,200) For as good as LSU has been at stopping the run, they’ve been better defending the pass. 17th in pass play success rate, allowing just 15 FPPG to opposing QBs thus far, and are fourth in the SEC with 11 team sacks. Ashford projects decently for a $5.2K quarterback at 21 fantasy points this week which is the only reason he’s listed here. But I’m the first to admit that feels too high as Ashford could only must 15 fantasy points last week against Missouri.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati vs. Tulsa
Point-Spread: Cin -10.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Cin 34.5 – Tulsa 24
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Ben Bryant ($8,000) Remember at the start of the year when we thought Bryant would lose his job at some point to Evan Prater? We look like idiots now because Bryant is slinging the pill, averaging 304 yards per game with 11 touchdowns, including a season-high four last week against Indiana. Tulsa pass defense is statistically performing better than the run defense, but not by much. 80th in pass play success rate and opposing QBs are averaging 32.4 FPPG. Also helps that Cincinnati is such a poor rushing team in 2022 that the Bearcats need to revert to throwing.
Fade – WR Jadon Thompson ($4,600) 41, 32, 35 and then a season-low 17 offensive snaps last week against Indiana. Not sure if he got injured but Thompson didn’t see a single target either. I think we we’re seeing is Hawaii transfer Nick Mardner ($3,800) get more comfortable with the new offensive scheme, and his reps are increasing as a result. Mardner’s snap counts? 19, 20, 23 and then 35 last week.
Bargain Bin – See above regarding Mardner.
Pivot Play – WR Tyler Scott ($7,100) I think I’m just jaded by the last few seasons where Cincinnati didn’t really have a go-to receiver. Alec Pierce, I suppose, was that guy, but his production was even inconsistent. Scott has been one of the best receivers in the country over the first month, averaging 9.5 targets per game with five receiving touchdowns in the last three weeks. Six different wide receivers have scored 14 or more fantasy points against Tulsa this year, where opposing WR1s are averaging 20.5 FPPG.
Best of the Rest – WR Tre Tucker ($5,900) The Robin to Scott’s Batman, Tucker has turned up the production the past two games with 12 receptions and 197 receiving yards. In fact, if you eliminate the blowout against Kennesaw State from the equation, Tucker is averaging 8.5 targets per game in the three competitive contests Cincinnati has played.As far as the Cincinnati running game, it’s been atrocious honestly, whether that’s Charles McClelland ($6,200) or Corey Kiner ($5,300). 92nd in rush play success rate offensively and 112th in second level yards so the running backs are getting hit close to the line of scrimmage. And it looks like the running backs are playing a big part in this because the advanced data for the offensive line really isn’t that bad. Battle of weakness on weakness here because Tulsa is 117th in defensive rush play success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – WR JuanCarlos Santana ($6,800) This entire game has an interesting dynamic with the injuries involved. Wide receivers get severe downgrade if Davis Brin does not play on a bum ankle. But then get bumped up if we have one less option with Keylon Stokes possibly not suiting up. JuanCarlos Santana would be my favorite of the bunch in the scenario as he’s second on the team in targets, first in routes run and a team-high 21.2 yards per catch average. His numbers would be even better if not for three drops.
Fade – RB Steven Anderson ($7,700) Excuse my immaturity, but why does the DK algorithm have a hard-on for Anderson as he’s been in the high $7K price range in each appearance on the night slate. The Bearcats are allowing just 16.4 FPPG to opposing running backs this season and are No. 1 in rush play success rate. Also No. 2 in rush play explosiveness. We might see Tulsa run the ball more should Brin not play, but Tulsa will often rotate in both Jordan Ford and Bill Jackson.
Bargain Bin – RB Bill Jackson ($3,000) Extreme longshot play but I wonder if the staff looks to get sophomore running back Bill Jackson a few more reps. They’ve increased each of the last two weeks, and he’s responded, averaging over seven yards a carry on 17 attempts. Jackson’s appearances in both games were in garbage time, so if this game is close, I’d imagine Tulsa leans more on Anderson of the available RBs.
Pivot Play – WR Malachai Jones ($4,900) Jones feels like the forgotten man in the Tulsa WR room, but has eight more targets and receptions than Isaiah Epps ($5,700) on the year. Biggest difference between the two is big-play ability where Jones’ aDOT sit at just 10.6 where Epps is at 16.0, averaging nearly 17 yards per reception with the four touchdowns. Both are viable options here, whether Stokes plays or not because of how often Tulsa runs 4-wide sets.
Best of the Rest – QB Braylon Braxton ($4,500) Obviously dependent on the Brin injury status. The Tulsa passing game was far less efficient with Braxton filling in, completing just 9-of-21 passes for 83 yards. The 6-foot-3 redshirt freshman is far more mobile than Brin, and showed it against Ole Miss with 39 yards on four carries. Biggest thing to remember here is that whether it’s Brin or Braxton, this is not the “no fly zone” Cincinnati secondary from last year. Allowing 26.8 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and 106th in pass play explosiveness allowed.
Injury Notes – No updates provided on starting QB Davis Brin ($7,300) or WR1 Keylon Stokes ($7,700) with their injury status for Saturday. Stokes is now a very interesting case here with what happened in the Miami / Cincinnati game on Thursday with Tua Tagovailoa. That video is now out there after the big hit Stokes took that forced him off the field. The senior WR did wind up coming back into the game, but you wonder if that situation forces the coaching staff to give it a second thought on having Stokes play or not. It’s not like Tulsa doesn’t have the depth to withstand.
Georgia vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: UGA -28.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: UGA 41.5 – Mizzou 13
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Stetson Bennett ($8,300) Last time Georgia played on the road after an uninspiring performance against Samford, the Bulldogs put a 48-7 beatdown on South Carolina. After last week’s game against Kent State, I’d expect much of the same. Bennett had over 300 total yards of offense and three touchdowns against the Gamecocks that week, and our projections at 27.2 points indicate we expect much of the same.
Fade – Pass-catchers beyond McConkey and Bowers. UGA might be getting players back from injury this week which only muddies the waters further here with the Bulldog pass-catchers. Bowers and UGA’s WR1 combined for 27% target share in 2021. Bowers and McConkey are combining for 35% target share right now so there is some more separation at the top.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Ladd McConkey ($6,100) McConkey is dealing with a toe injury, though Kirby Smart said he’s doing much better this week than last. Not sure a toe caused him to drop three passes last week against Kent State, though? Maybe I’m getting cute here, but there was a lot made about McConkey’s awful performance last week. Yet he still led the team with six receptions on nine targets. I see a bounce back on the horizon, and he’s still one of the most trusted options in the passing game alongside Bowers.
Best of the Rest – TE Brock Bowers ($7,200) Speaking of Bowers, he wasn’t going to stay quiet for long. Back-to-back 30-point performances, and getting it done as a runner too on jet sweeps with three rushing scores in two games. With all the injuries at wide receiver, increased production from Bowers has been a necessity. Call me skeptical, but he’s due for a 6.8-point performance here – that’s just how it is with Georgia players typically. RB Kenny McIntosh ($7,000) McIntosh continues to shine in the James Cook role with a team-leading 21 receptions on 23 targets. At this price, he needs to find the end-zone as a runner to reach value, yet is only averaging 6.25 carries per game. Safest floor of any skill player on the slate to reach double-digit fantasy points, but very limited upside. Starter Kendall Milton ($5,600) will split reps with McIntosh, averaging just 9.75 attempts per game. UGA is eighth in the country in passing yards per game and 16th in pass attempts per. This ain’t your grand daddy’s Georgia Bulldogs.
Injury Notes – 247Sports is reporting that both Arik Gilbert ($3,500) and Arian Smith ($3,000) made the travel roster. Probably will only get a handful of snaps each, but something of note for down the stretch this season when UGA is on the slate again. WR AD Mitchell ($7,000) has a bum ankle, with Smart stating he’s hopeful” for him to play.
Missouri:
Ya’ll know the drill here. Night slate means we try and cut corners wherever possible to get this writeup completed. Lowest implied total on the slate, facing the No. 4 defense in the country and a pissed off defense at that, after last week’s showing.
West Virginia vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -9.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Tex 36.5 – WVU 27
Weather: 85 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – “WR” CJ Donaldson ($5,000) Whether it be DFS or college fantasy football, have we seen a player’s positional designation be this much of a conversation as Donaldson? The 240-pound freshman is now listed as a running back on the team roster, so maybe he’ll get changed next week, but take advantage now of a RB1 listed as a receiver. Season-high 23 carries last week against Virginia Tech, topping 100 yards in three of his first four career games. Texas does rank 17th in rush play success rate defensively but are allowing 18.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($5,800) Barring a fumble or freshman mistake by Donaldson on Saturday, it’s difficult to see where Mathis gets significant carries to reach value. Mathis probably still starts but saw a season-low nine rushing attempts against Virginia Tech after he himself had a costly turnover. Was averaging 16.5 carries per game through the first three weeks, so will be interesting to see how his workload shakes out against Texas.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Kaden Prather ($5,400) It was a brutal opening week for Prather against Pittsburgh, but the 6-foot-4 sophomore is really coming on the last three weeks with six receptions in each game. Still second in targets behind BFW, but not far behind, averaging 7.25 a game. Have a feeling this could flip-flop throughout the season, but Prather has been the better player of late over Ford-Wheaton.
Best of the Rest – Hit on this during the offseason and is coming to fruition in 2022, but OC Graham Harrell heavily featured his top three receivers during his time at USC. Prather, Bryce Ford-Wheaton ($7,300) and Sam James ($5,700) are now combining for 65% of the team’s target share which is actually a higher rate than Michael Pittman, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London had during Harrell’s time with the Trojans. Sluggish last two weeks for BFW with just seven receptions on 16 targets, but he’s getting plenty of volume. 15.5-point projection for QB JT Daniels ($6,900) means I’m likely fading him in this spot. The Longhorns held Bryce Young and Frank Harris to their season-lows in fantasy points this season, and Daniels is not in that stratosphere.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Bijan Robinson ($8,600) Just eat the salary and lock in Bijan Robinson this week because, call it a hunch, he’s going to mash against West Virginia. It was reported that Robinson was holding a football around campus after fumbling away the game against Texas Tech on Saturday. A motivated Bijan Robinson is not what an opposing defense wants to see. WVU is allowing 19.7 FPPG to opposing RBs.
Fade – QB Hudson Card ($7,700) The Mountaineers can be had through the air, ranking 77th in pass play success rate and allowing 25.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. But Hudson Card isn’t the guy to take advantage. At least not at $7,700. Completing 65% of his passes with only one turnover, so Card hasn’t been bad, but it’s evident the staff isn’t really trusting him to push the ball down the field.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,400) Third on the Longhorns in both targets and receiving routes run, while also playing the most offensive snaps of any skill player. Had been quiet for a few games, though caught all five of his targets for 40 yards last week against Tech. He’s on the field a ton, which is all you can ask from a sub 3.5K option.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Whittington ($5,600) Very limited upside here with Whittington with an aDOT of just 8.4, but is consistently seeing around six targets a game. He gets a value boost if, for some reason, Xavier Worthy does not play.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,400) Listed as questionable on DK, but I believe Worthy is expected to play this week. More interesting to me that I read Texas writers calling out Worthy’s effort the last few games. Just one drop this season, but he’s had a few catchable passes which should have resulted in a reception. Closer to a fade for me here, until Quinn Ewers comes back to open up the passing game downfield.
Injury Notes – The sense from Texas beat writers is that Quinn Ewers will need one more week before getting back in the saddle. He was splitting first-team reps this week with Hudson Card.
NC State vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -6.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Clem 25 – NC St 18.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 29% rain / 3 mph winds
NC State:
Going to cheat again here in the essence of time as we have an 18.5-point implied team total going on the road against one of the better defenses in the country. Didn’t look like it against Wake Forest, but Clemson appears to be getting some reinforcements back in the secondary this week. We don’t have an NC State player projected to score more than 13 fantasy points this week. Devin Leary ($7,100) has looked atrocious against any defense with a pulse this year. Both Demie Sumo ($4,300) and Jordan Houston ($5,700) should be back this week, which means a 50-50 split in the backfield. And there is not a receiver with more than 16% target share on the year. WR Devin Carter ($5,400) gave this Clemson D fits last year with two receiving touchdowns and is the big-bodied type that gave the Tigers all sorts of troubles last week against Wake. But there is a better chance that type of play results in five fantasy points instead of 20. Full-team fade here for me, unless we get late injury news that someone is out.
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($6,700) By default as the top play, because I probably won’t have much exposure here against what might be considered the best LB corps in the country with NC State. Just 60th in rush play success rate but limiting opposing RB1s to just 10.4 FPPG this year. That said, three of those matchups to accumulate those gaudy numbers were against Texas Tech (doesn’t run), Charleston Southern (FCS) and Connecticut (terrible).
Fade – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($6,600) I am of the opinion that DJU has turned the corner a bit in 2022, but I’m full fade this week against one of the best back sevens in the country with the Wolfpack. No. 1 in pass play success rate. Allowing just 179.8 yards per game with more interceptions forced than passing TDs allowed. Giving up just 17.6 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Antonio Williams ($3,000) Which Clemson receiver saw the most offensive snaps last week against Wake Forest? Which receiver ran the most routes against Wake Forest? Both answers would be the same in slot receiver Antonio Williams. Marginal stats with 3-51-0 on four targets, but his playing time continues to increase with every passing week.
Pivot Play – WR Beaux Collins ($5,400) Still the best WR on the team, leading Clemson in targets (20) and has found the end-zone in every game so far. Will also throw out Joe Ngata ($4,700) out as a potential option. Second in targets and first on the team in receiving routes run. If there was a player on Clemson that needed a good week, it was Ngata who on the verge, and still could be, of losing his job soon to Adam Randall.
Best of the Rest – Has to be something that Clemson saw on tape against the Wake Forest defense because the two tight ends in Davis Allen ($3,700) and Jake Briningstool ($3,000) combined for 10 catches on 12 targets with three scores. NC State’s linebacker play, both in stopping the run and coverage, leads me to believe this success will not be duplicated…but the more options the better for Clemson’s passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -2.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Duke 28 – UVA 25.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 25% rain / 5 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Keytaon Thompson ($6,000) You know the GIF where Seinfeld throws up his hands and says, “I’m out.” I got to that point last week with the Virginia offense…except for Thompson who continues to be the surest thing on the team. Team-high 26 receptions on 37 targets, and third on the team in receiving routes run. He’s not excluded from being part of the problem with three drops himself, but he’s really the only player we can count on with this offense. And if there is bad weather, his 7.2 aDOT actually becomes beneficial.
Fade – WR Lavel Davis ($5,000) AND Dontayvion Wicks ($6,300) This is where the frustration comes in. And not solely on these two players, the coaching staff changes have obviously played a huge part in this team’s regression. 26 receptions on 72 targets. 36% conversion rate. Seven drops between the two players. It’s downright disgusting. Maybe one of them will hit a big play over the top of the Duke secondary, I don’t care. Save yourself the headache of even rostering one of the two in your lineup because you’re gunna slam your head on the table undoubtedly.
Bargain Bin – TE Grant Misch ($3,600) Saw a season-high 61 snaps against Syracuse last week and does have six receptions on nine targets in the last two weeks. Longest longshot on this night slate writeup, though.
Pivot Play – RB Perris Jones ($5,300) I was almost considering Jones for my top play for UVA this week with the impending weather, combined with this depressing passing game. Double-digit carries in three of the four games played this season, averaging over five yards a carry in each of those three contests. Duke is allowing the seventh most FPPG to opposing RBs in the country this season at 25.3.
Best of the Rest – QB Brennan Armstrong ($7,200) UVA’s struggles are well-documented at this point so not going to beat the dead horse. But the Duke defense is coming off allowing 50+ fantasy points to Jalon Daniels last week and gave up 30+ fantasy points to Ryan Hilinski. 97th in pass play success rate and 81st in explosiveness allowed. Duke is not good on that side of the ball.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($6,000) Too cheap for a QB averaging 26 FPPG, having score 25 or more fantasy points in three of the four games played this season. Level of competition can be debated, but is UVA any better? The answer I suppose is yes, but not by much. Virginia is allowing 21.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and 63rd in pass play success rate. What UVA does well is limit explosiveness, which could hurt the Duke passing game where Leonard is tied for first in the ACC at 10.4 yards per completion.
Fade – RB Jaylen Coleman ($5,000) UVA ranks just seventh in the conference in rushing, but has substantially improved over the last two games, limiting both Old Dominion and Syracuse to under three yards a carry. Virginia is giving up just 11.9 FPPG to opposing running backs and 14th nationally in rush play success rate. Why spend $5k on Coleman when you could just….contd.
Bargain Bin – RB Jordan Waters ($3,500) Spend down on Waters at $1.5K less. Dead even 50-50 split on rushing attempts and Waters even has the slight edge, playing 13 more offensive snaps this season. AND he has five more targets in the passing game.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,900) Aside from the lone matchup against NC A&T where Calhoun played 90% of the game yet accounted for just one target, the senior receiver has been exceptional. 17 receptions on 25 targets in those three games and at least 90 receiving yards. He’s the clear WR1 for the Blue Devils.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Moore ($4,900) Similar to CJ Donaldson, DraftKings has yet to update Moore’s position here as he’s now a full-time WR. And a good one at that with a receiving touchdown in three of four games played. But you can’t roster him at QB or superflex with the other options on the board. WR Eli Pancol ($4,500) is third on the team with 18 targets in four games. The top three WRs account for 65% of the target share, so there is nobody else to consider for Duke outside of that group.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -5.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Neb 33.5 – Ind 28
Weather: 78 degrees / 5% rain / 8 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Camper ($6,200) Nation’s leader in targets (62) despite only having played four games this season, compared to Tyrin Smith (58) and Zakhari Franklin (58) who have now played five games. Drops are a problem as Camper has had at least one in 3-of-4 games played, and is only converting on 53% of his targets – much of which is due to Connor Bazelak’s accuracy issues.
Fade – QB Connor Bazelak ($5,900) There are a ton of reasons to roster Bazelak this week. Indiana is No. 1 in the country in pace. Bazelak has thrown the ball 50 or more times on three ocassions already this season. He’s got one of the best WRs in the conference in Camper. And Nebraska is allowing 31.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. Yet why just a 19-point projection for this week despite all of the reasons I’ve given to roster him? Simple, he’s average at very best. Barely completing 50% of his passes this season and has surpassed 20 fantasy points just once all year.
Bargain Bin – TE AJ Barner ($3,400) Tied with Camper for most offensive snaps played by a skill player, third in targets (19) and second in receiving routes run. Gets a bump up in value if Matthews is out.
Pivot Play – RB Shaun Shivers ($6,500) Camper and the passing game will get much of the attention here, and rightfully so. But Nebraska has been brutal against the run, allowing the fourth most FPPG to opposing running backs this season and are 123rd in rush play success rate. Healthy 17.9 projection this week at what should be relatively low ownership.
Best of the Rest – WR Emery Simmons ($3,600) Only in play if Matthews is out, as the North Carolina transfer saw a season-high in snaps once Matthews left with injury. 11 targets in the last two weeks, though went just 1-for-6 for six yards against Cincinnati.
Injury Notes – WR D.J. Matthews ($5,600) suffered an injured last week against Cincinnati in the second quarter and did not return. HC Tom Allen said Matthews has progressed this week but will be a game-time decision.
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – WR Trey Palmer ($5,500) WR1 averages against Indiana this season? 30.5 FPPG. With the Scott Frost firing, OC Mark Whipple is now fully in charge of the offense, and we know his infatuation with the slot receiver. Last time we saw Palmer, he caught 10 passes on 11 targets with a touchdown against Oklahoma.
Fade – Everyone outside of the core four. The two receivers listed here account for 36% of the team’s production. I don’t trust yet what the RB rotations will look like under Whipple enough to consider Ervin this week. Everyone listed here should be the only options to consider barring some late injury news.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Washington ($3,700) First on the team in routes run this season and a distant second in targets (19). Simply the safest bet to catch the football outside of Palmer here. And we stated above how prone Indiana is to giving up fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Pivot Play – QB Casey Thompson ($7,000) The Hoosiers are No. 1 in the country in pace. Nebraska isn’t far off, ranked 16th. Interim HC Mickey Joseph has stated they may slow the game down a bit to protect the Cornhuskers’ woeful defense, but it will be game flow dependent. The Hoosiers are poor on the backend, ranking 108th in pass play success rate and giving up 33 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Best of the Rest – RB Anthony Grant ($6,100) The big question I want to see answered this week is, now with Whipple in charge, do we see the offense revert back to what we saw at Pittsburgh where they divvied up the carries evenly between two and sometimes three RBs. That wasn’t the case in the first three games where Grant averaged over 100 yards rushing on 22.3 attempts. Are the 13 carries against Oklahoma a situational thing or is that going to be the norm now under Whipple?
Injury Notes – RB Ajay Allen ($3,000) is out for the season due to injury. That likely bumps up RB Gabe Ervin ($4,600) into the backup role. Averaged over eight yards a carry vs. Oklahoma.
San Jose State vs. Wyoming
Point-Spread: SJSU -2.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: SJSU 22.5 – Wyo 20
Weather: 52 degrees / 95% rain / 13 mph winds
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Cooks ($4,900) Interesting stats I found on 247Sports regarding the Wyoming defensive backs. “Cowboy CB Cam Stone has allowed 16 completions on 26 targets for 266 yards. Keonte Glinton has allowed 17 completions on 27 targets for 213 yards. And CB Jakorey Hawkins has given up three touchdowns on 18 targets.” If this wasn’t expected to be such a dreadful weather game, I’d have more interest in the passing game, but still expect the receivers to make some plays against this secondary. Cooks is tied for the team lead in targets with counterpart Justin Lockhart ($5,100) Both have separated themselves as the top two receivers to own here.
Fade – Everyone that isn’t listed here. San Jose State runs tight rotations at each position.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Olson ($3,500) or WR Charles Ross ($3,600) SJSU really is not rotating much on offense so we have a clear picture of which players are involved on offense. Sam Olson leads all pass-catchers in offensive snaps played this season and had a season-high five receptions on six targets against Western Michigan. Ross only plays 50% of offensive snaps, but has been a consistent factor in the passing game with eight receptions on 10 targets with a touchdown in the last two games. Longshots again, but we know they’ll be on the field.
Pivot Play – QB Chevan Cordeiro ($6,000) Wonder if the weather is playing a part in such a low game total, because this looks to be a decent matchup for Cordeiro and the passing game on paper. Wyoming is 10th in the MWC, allowing 249.4 yards per game through the air and 30.6 FPPG to opposing QBs. Game total is exactly why we’re seeing such an average projection at 21.7 fantasy points. Cordeiro threw for 323 yards and three scores against Wyoming a year ago.
Best of the Rest – RB Kairee Robinson ($4,500) San Jose State only runs the ball 42% of the time, but when they do, its usually Robinson who is garnering 68% of the backfield volume share. Nobody else is getting carries here. High floor, very low upside play, but at only $4,500, it’s probably worth it.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wyoming:
Just two options for the Cowboys, and its not just because of the implied total, but this is the situation for Wyoming every single week. RB Titus Swen ($5,900) is the focal point of the offense, averaging 17.8 rushing attempts per game. Was also featured in the passing game more than we thought last week with four receptions on five targets. Above average Mountain West run defense for San Jose State this is giving up just 13.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year, limiting even Tank Bigsby to just 18 fantasy points on the road. I won’t play WR1 Joshua Cobbs ($5,300) but he’s emerged as the go-to threat, and a viable one at that, for the Cowboys. 31% target share and at least four receptions in each of the last four games.
Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Pitt -21.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Pitt 35.5 – G-Tech 13.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 76% rain / 5 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Second-lowest implied total on the slate and just one player projected to score more than eight fantasy points. And I can tell you with the utmost certainty, you’re not starting Jeff Sims tonight.
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – RB Israel Abanikanda ($7,500) Will likely see some of the highest ownership on the slate along with Bijan Robinson. Rodney Hammond was on the field last week, but not in pads and was in sweats. We can wonder whether or not Hammond will suit up this week, but sometimes common sense needs to come into play. Pitt does not need him against Georgia Tech, and even if he played, it probably wouldn’t be full game reps. The Jackets are allowing close to 20 FPPG to opposing running backs and UCF rolled up 284 yards on the ground on Tech last Saturday.
Fade – QB Kedon Slovis ($6,500) The epitome of a game manager. Just eight fantasy points scored in each of the last two games. Opposing teams facing Georgia Tech simply haven’t had the need to put the ball in the air much considering the massive differential on the scoreboard.
Bargain Bin – RB Vincent Davis ($3,500) Under the assumption Hammond is out again, Davis should see extended playing time again in what is likely a blowout scenario. Averaging over seven yards a carry in each of the last two games on nine attempts and found the end-zone against Rhode Island. Added three receptions on three targets for 34 yards last Saturday as well. Georgia Tech is 121st in rush play success rate defensively, so the thought is Pitt should be able to run at will here.
Pivot Play – WR Jared Wayne ($5,100) Was Pittsburgh’s most consistent wide receiver when healthy, accounting for 80+ yards in each of the first three games. Wayne is expected to play tonight, along with tight end Gavin Bartholomew ($3,900), according to a Pittsburgh radio show (via Twitter).
Best of the Rest – WR Bub Means ($4,600) Third on the team in routes run and second in targets, but saw an uptick in production with Wayne out. He’s downgraded tonight with all three starting receivers in the lineup. Konata Mumpfield ($6,600) is atop the Pittsburgh leader board in targets (28) and routes run, but his production has been minimized by the offensive shift and quarterback play. Not playable at that pricing.
Injury Notes – RB Rodney Hammond ($6,400) Not playable at this cost, even if he were to suit up. Why rush him back in a game where he won’t be needed.
