SMU vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -9
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: PSU 31.5 – SMU 22.5
Weather: 26 degrees / 6% rain / 13 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Brashard Smith ($7,700) Strong projection for Smith this week, much of which looks to be his usage in the passing game over the last two games with over 100 yards receiving and two scores, including 11 targets in the comeback attempt vs. Clemson. That’s really the path here for Smith to be in winning lineups, as I’m not sure how successful SMU will be on the ground against this Penn State front that is 6th in EPA per run play and 29th in defensive success rate. Just one starting running back scored more than 20 fantasy points all year vs. Penn State (Jordan James).
Fade – RB LJ Johnson ($3,300) Only path to relevancy for Johnson is if Brashard Smith gets injury or the Mustangs win in a blowout. Both occurrences of double-digit fantasy points for Johnson came when SMU won by 30 or more points. That isn’t happening on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($3,900) Really hasn’t been any downgrade from RJ Maryland to Hibner, as the former Michigan transfer scored a touchdown in each of the last three games. Penn State allowed some monster TE performances this year, giving up 30 fantasy points to Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin and 22 fantasy points to Purdue’s Max Klare.
Pivot Play – QB Kevin Jennings ($7,700) The numbers are dominant for the Penn State secondary, allowing just 9.9 FPPG to opposing QBs, with no quarterback scoring more than 17 fantasy points against the Nittany Lions during the regular season. That was until getting lit up by Dillon Gabriel for four touchdowns in the B1G championship. Jennings isn’t Gabriel, but he’s better than any QB Penn State faced during the regular season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Targets are still dispersed evenly amongst the SMU pass-catchers, with no wideout having more than 15% of the team’s target share. There is some separation in terms of playing time, as both Key’Shawn Smith and Roderick Daniels have played over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last four games. Jordan Hudson and Moochie Dixon aren’t far behind, particularly Hudson who’s seen an uptick in the last month with 19 of his 35 receptions coming in that four-week span. Three of the top four highest scoring wideouts to face Penn State this season have been slot receivers, which favors Daniels in this matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,800) SMU run defense finished No. 1 in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground but were not immune to allowing fantasy points with three conference running backs scoring at least 20 fantasy points against the Mustangs. A similar type of talent to Singleton, Desmond Reid, found plenty of success in the passing game as well, with 44 yards on six receptions vs. SMU. Singleton’s ability in the passing game is what separates him from Kaytron Allen, finishing third on the team with 37 receptions on 41 targets. We’re operating this slate under the premise that Penn State beats up on SMU in the cold elements.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($3,300) It’s only right this late in the year that we fade one of our favorites yet again. When Harrison Wallace is healthy, Fleming becomes the fourth option at wideout for a team that doesn’t throw to wideouts often.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($3,700) A healthy Harrison Wallace is a difference maker, as shown in the B1G title game, scoring a touchdown on eight targets. Most teams were playing catchup against SMU, so inflated numbers would make sense, but four wideouts scored at least 22 fantasy points against this secondary in 2024. WR Omari Evans ($3,500) saw an expected bump in playing time vs. Oregon, playing over 70% of the snaps that night, as well as a receiving touchdown. He’s a playmaker if given the opportunity, averaging nearly 19 yards per reception with four receiving TDs.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Allar ($7,300) Have to like the way Allar closed the year, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in three of the last four games, and a rushing TD in each of the last three. SMU pass defense is strong, allowing just 18 FPPG, and each of the last three QBs faced failed to score more than 17 fpts in their respective matchups with the Mustangs. Allar might have higher ownership than anticipated because of his salary.
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Warren ($7,200) In win or go home situations like this, we should be expecting teams to involve their studs as much as possible. And SMU really struggled to defend tight ends this season, with four players scoring 12 or more fantasy points against the Mustangs. If SMU struggled with Sam Roush, Kamari Morales and Mata’ava Ta’ase, you have to think Tyler Warren will have a big day. RB Kaytron Allen ($5,000) had 100+ vs. Oregon, but part of that was due to a brief injury to Singleton. Prior to that, Allen failed to eclipse four yards per carry in four of the previous five games. Don’t mind playing Allen, but do not stack the PSU backfield.
Injury Notes – QB Beau Pribula (portal)
Clemson vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -12.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Tex 32.5 – Clem 20
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR Bryant Wesco Jr. ($4,400) The true freshman is playing like a sophomore now this late in the year, over 90% of the team’s snaps in the last two games with 21 combined targets against South Carolina and SMU. Double-digit targets for the third straight game is likely happening given the potential game script with the injury to Clemson’s RB1.
Fade – RB Phil Mafah ($6,300) Even with time to heal and not taking any contact during practice, it was announced by Mafah and Dabo Swinney that the Clemson RB1 will need surgery after the season with a bum shoulder. We could see the Tigers use as many as four running backs on Saturday in a poor matchup as the Texas run defense has been stifiling in the last four games, allowing just 2.4 yards per attempt. Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($3,900) Second on the team in every receiving category and had a hell of an ACC Championship game vs. SMU with four receptions on seven targets with two scores. Talent wise, Briningstool is on par with Michigan’s Colston Loveland and Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers who combined for 26 fantasy points against Texas this year. If under the impression that Phil Mafah will be extremely limited, RBs Keith Adams Jr. ($3,100) and high 3-star freshman David Eziomume ($3,000) will get the additional work in the run game.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,600) Clemson is going to need a heroic performance from Klubnik if they’re too pull off the upset over Texas given the injury to Mafah and limited experience behind him. While Texas does boast a secondary that is ranked No. 3 nationally in pass D success rate, we believe those numbers to be slightly inflated given the lack of competent QBs the Longhorns faced this season. Top scorers against the Longhorns were Diego Pavia (24 fpts), Davis Warren (walk-on), Michael Van Buren (freshman), and Michael Hawkins (not a QB). 40+ pass attempts is a likely scenario given the circumstances. On the flipside, Texas did what it was supposed to do against inferior competition, limiting QBs to just 7 FPPG for the entire season.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($6,100) Most will be on Wesco with the pricing difference but could make the strong argument that Williams is the better play of the two with less ownership. While he hasn’t been targeted as much, it’s key that Williams plays primarily in the slot. Texas does not allow many fantasy points to wide receivers – no WR scored more than 18 fantasy points against the Longhorns all year – but four of the top five highest scoring wideouts to face Texas this year played inside. Clemson has completely condensed the WR rotation this late in the year, with Williams, Wesco and WR TJ Moore ($3,300) really being the only players seeing the field.
Injury Notes – Phil Mafah injury watch. WR Troy Stellato (portal).
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Tre Wisner ($6,200) Rollercoaster of a season for the Clemson Tigers run defense. Opponents ran roughshod in the first month. At the beginning of the ACC schedule, Clemson became the early 2000s Baltimore Ravens. And then in November it all fell apart again, allowing a combined 710 rushing yards to its final three opponents – one of which was the Citadel. If Texas gets a lead, they’ll ride this running game to victory behind Wisner who averaged 25 touches per game over the final month.
Fade – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,300) Ewers has scored 20+ fantasy points just once since Week 2, and now faces a Clemson defense that allowed just 16 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season. With Arch Manning rotating in when Texas hits the red zone, that limits scoring opportunities for Ewers even further.
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($3,800) We missed on Helm in conference championship week as Big Game Gunnar laid an egg with just 11 receiving yards. We’re in once again for Helm to live up to his big-game moniker against a Clemson defense that allowed 10.6 FPPG to opposing tight ends during the regular season.
Pivot Play – WR Ryan Wingo ($3,500) With Bond likely out, Wingo looks to be the big beneficiary, with Pete Thamel reporting that the freshman has been specifically taking snaps in the slot in practices to in preparation to replace Bond.
Best of the Rest – WR Matthew Golden ($5,100) The former Houston transfer emerged as Texas’ WR1 over the second half of the season, with 60 or more receiving yards in four of the final six contests. That should hold true yet again on Saturday with Bond limited / out. No wide receiver scored more than 20 fantasy points against Clemson all year long, so no Texas wideout is a priority to be frank. WR DeAndre Moore ($4,200) had a breakout game vs. Georgia with 114 yards and a TD on 13 targets. Moore has been the preferred target in a few of Texas’ tightly contested matchups this season; Vanderbilt being the other. RB Jaydon Blue’s ($5,700) volume has evaporated after fumbles in consecutive games with just seven carries in the last two weeks. He’s not trustworthy in a high-pressure situation.
Injury Notes – WR Isaiah Bond ($4,900) According to Pete Thamel, Bond faces “long odds” to play against Clemson this weekend with a high ankle sprain. Bond hasn’t been right for a month, so Bond would’ve been a fade anyways.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -7.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: OSU 27 – Tenn 19.5
Weather: 25 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Sampson ($8,200) Path to winning this game for Tennessee is giving their best player the rock 25+ times. And as we saw in the Michigan game, you can run on this Buckeye front even if Ohio State knows exactly what you’re going to do offensively. Kalel Mullings still ran all over this defense despite no semblance of a passing game.
Fade – Injured Vols. All three Vols’ receivers listed in the injury report were in non-contact jerseys on Tuesday in the open portion of practice to the media. All three are expected to play, but there hasn’t been a reliable fantasy option at the position for Tennessee all year. Not about to risk playing one that isn’t 100%. Of the three, Squirrel White is the “least” appealing.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Brazzell ($3,200) The Tulane transfer has not been the factor some thought he’d be in the preseason, but was targeted a team-high five times in the finale vs. Vanderbilt, playing the most snaps in a game he had all year long. He’s the only starting receiver that is 100% healthy at the moment. Should we get word that McCoy / White / Thornton are out or limited, 5-star WR Mike Matthews ($3,000) would be next man up after catching a touchdown against Vanderbilt.
Pivot Play – TE Miles Kitselman ($3,400) Injuries at WR mean others have to get involved in the passing offense. 15 of Kitzelman’s 21 receptions for the season came in the last five games.
Best of the Rest – QB Nico Iamaleava ($5,800) Strong close to the year for Iamaleava with nearly 60 fantasy points combined in the last two games, albeit against UTEP and Vanderbilt. As we’ve seen throughout bowl season, coaches and their QBs are not afraid to throw their bodies around in the run game with this being a win or go home situation (bet the over 18.5 on Nico rushing props). Dillon Gabriel was the only QB to score more than 14 fantasy points against Ohio State this season.
Injury Notes – WR Squirrel White (questionable), WR Bru McCoy (questionable), WR Dont’e Thornton (questionable), WR Kaleb Webb (portal), RB Cam Seldon (portal), WR Nathan Leacock (portal), RB Khalifa Keith (portal)
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Carnell Tate ($3,900) Ohio State tried to act tough against Michigan, and that’s not who they are. Hopefully Ryan Day learned that over the last few weeks and develops the offensive game plan around his stud 5-star receivers. Tate is, yet again, too cheap in this scenario for a player that has had 50 or more receiving yards in 9-of-12 games during the regular season, coming off a season-best nine targets in the loss to the Wolverines.
Fade – RBs. There is no outright fade on the Ohio State side, but I’ll have limited exposure with the Ohio State backfield as the two continue to split reps, and now face a Tennessee defense that is No. 1 in rush D success rate and did not allow a single running back to score 20 fantasy points for the entire year.
Bargain Bin – TE Gee Scott Jr. ($3,300) If I constructed 50 lineups, Scott would be in probably one of those. But the senior tight end plays 2/3s of the game and Tennessee hasn’t been great defending tight ends this season, with four SEC TEs scoring at least 10 fantasy points against them this season. Always a wildcard in these types of games.
Pivot Play – QB Will Howard ($8,200) Every QB is a pivot play on this slate, because none of them are that appealing. But we’re entering this game under the premise that we believe Ohio State will NOT do what it tried to do against Michigan and run the ball. Tennessee’s pass defense is the lesser of the two components on that side of the ball, but still very good. Just one QB scored more than 15 fantasy points all year against the Vols.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Smith ($6,200) or WR Emeka Egubka ($5,500) If I’m stacking OSU receivers, it would just be one of Smith or Egbuka, along with Tate. The 5-star freshman was WAY too quiet against Michigan in the finale, so look for the Buckeyes coaching staff to correct that mistake on Saturday. We’ve already seen elite freshman find success against Tennessee, where Alabama Ryan Williams was targeted 18 times and scored 21 fantasy points.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s Core Four: ***This can be a 1-QB slate.
- RB Nick Singleton, Penn State
- RB Tre Wisner, Texas
- WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State
- TE Tyler Warren, Penn State
