Pittsburgh vs. Toledo
Point-Spread: Pitt -6.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Pitt 29 – Tol 22.5
Weather: Dome
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($9,200) Thought we’d have an NFL Draft opt-out watch for Reid, but the star running back confirmed that he’s returning to the Panthers in 2025. Reid missed the season finale, but HC Pat Narduzzi confirmed the RB1 is good to go for Thursday. Toledo was stout against the run during the regular season, with no running back scoring more than 18 fantasy points against the Rockets all season. Reid gives you multiple pathways to fantasy success with his ability as a pass-catcher, ranked second on the team with 46 receptions.
Fade – QB Eli Holstein ($8,100) Not an outright fade but need a lot more clarity on Holstein’s injury situation before playing him on Thursday. As of writing this on Tuesday, Holstein remains questionable after missing most of the last three games with a leg injury, though Narduzzi did sound somewhat optimistic his QB1 could play. Why fade? Holstein was awful even prior to the injury, failing to score more than 15 fantasy points in any of his last four starts.
***IF we get word Holstein is full-go, I’m potentially considering him for this reason. Five QBs scored 23 or more fantasy points against Toledo this season. Those five were Parker Navarro, Caden Veltkamp, Cole Snyder, CJ Ogbonna and Taisun Phommachanh. Not exactly a list of Heisman contenders right there.
Bargain Bin – WR Raphael Williams Jr. ($4,000) or WR Kenny Johnson ($4,200) Would expect both Pitt wideouts to get the bulk of the targets on Thursday with Konata Mumpfield opting out, Censere Lee out due to injury and WR Daejon Reynolds in the transfer portal. That’s over 30% of Pitt’s receiving production for the year.
Pivot Play – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,400) Bartholomew is on the official depth chart but some are considering the Pitt TE1 an opt-out possibility as a senior without eligibility following this year. Just one tight end scored more than 10 fantasy points against Toledo all year. Bartholomew finished fourth on the team in receptions (37), fifth in targets (50), while playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Best of the Rest – RB Juelz Goff ($3,000) If expecting a blowout or Reid to get limited snaps, freshman Juelz Goff is the RB2. WR Zion Fowler-El ($3,000) is listed as the backup receiver at all three WR spots on the two-deep for the bowl game.
Injury Notes – QB Nate Yarnell (portal), WR Daejon Reynolds (portal), QB Eli Holstein (injury), WR Konata Mumpfield (opt-out), WR Cencere Lee (injury)
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – WR Jerjuan Newton ($7,200) or WR Junior Vandeross III ($6,100) Probably wouldn’t stack the two together as Toledo hasn’t been prolific enough throwing the ball this season to warrant that. But I’d like one or the other in my lineups as both hit the 100-target mark for the season. The WR duo for Toledo combined for 53% of the target share and 15 of the 26 receiving touchdowns.
Fade – RB Jacquez Stuart ($4,900) Really wish Peny Boone just stayed at Toledo this season and didn’t transfer to become a backup at UCF. As expected, Toledo’s backfield was a mess this season, and the Rockets rotated between Stuart, RB Connor Walendzak ($4,200) and RB Sevaughn Clark ($3,000). If choosing one, we’d lean Walendzak who rushed for 87 yards on 19 attempts in the finale vs. Akron. Though averaging 4.6 yards per carry against one of the worst rush defenses in the country isn’t all that impressive. Fading the Toledo backfield entirely might be the play.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Torres ($3,800) Torres finished second on the team in touchdown receptions (8), and third in both targets (41) and receptions (27). Pitt really struggled defending the tight end position in 2024, with five different players scoring at least 13 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Pivot Play – QB Tucker Gleason ($7,700) Most of the Pitt starting defense should be available on Thursday. The Panthers allowed just 17.4 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season and were 49th in pass D success rate. Don’t mind sprinkling in Gleason in cash games or GPPs because there aren’t any great QBs on the slate, but it’s not the greatest of matchups either.
Best of the Rest – WR Eric Holley ($3,100) Probably the only other Toledo player I’d consider as he’s a listed starter as the WR3 on the bowl game depth chart. Played a season-high 75% of snaps with five targets in Week 14. The Rockets passing game, though, is centralized around Newton, Vandeross and
Injury Notes – WR Larry Stephens (portal)
Rutgers vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -6.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: KSU 28.5 – Rutg 22
Weather: 65 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – WR Ian Strong ($3,400) Slightly higher projection for Strong over Dymere Miller, so he gets top billing, but more than fine playing either receiver. It was a “Strong” close to the year for the sophomore wideout, recording a touchdown in each of the last four games, and 40 of his 67 targets coming in that span.
Fade – RB Kyle Monangai ($7,500) Latest report as of December 23rd is that Monangai did travel with the team but was in a t-shirt and shorts during the portion of practice viewable to the media and was NOT actively going through drills. This close to gameday with the NFL in his future, I’d be shocked if the RB1 plays.
Bargain Bin – WR Dymere Miller ($3,900) Miller was on a heater the second half of the season with double-digit targets in four of the last five games, surpassing the 100-target mark for the season. Didn’t think we’d be saying that before the season from a receiver catching passes from Athan Kaliakmanis. Kansas State will be without its top cornerback who declared for the NFL Draft. Kansas State allowed 43 combined fantasy points per game to receivers this season, so this is a premier matchup for both Strong and Miller.
Pivot Play – WR KJ Duff ($3,300) Strong and Miller get the headlines, but Duff was an integral part of the passing game in the second half of the season, playing nearly 80% of the team’s offensive snaps. In the finale against Michigan State, the freshman receiver was on the field 96% of the time.
Best of the Rest – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($6,000) Normally a fade, but Kansas State’s pass defense is the weakness on that side of the ball, ranked 56th in success rate, and the Greek Rifle posted 20 or more fantasy points in three of his final five outings. If Monangai is out, look for RB Antwan Raymond ($3,600) to get the lion’s share of the carries, just as he did earlier in the year with a combined 37 attempts vs. USC and Minnesota. Just two running backs scored 20+ fantasy points against Kansas State this season, as the Wildcats finished No. 6 nationally in rush D success rate and 8th in EPA per run play. Can’t beat that price, though.
Injury Notes – RB Kyle Monangai opt-out watch. WR Chris Long (portal).
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Avery Johnson ($7,700) Top QB option on the slate, and it’s not that close. Wouldn’t say 100% lock it in like UTSA’s Owen McCown was on Monday, but Johnson is the QB you should have the most exposure to. Rutgers’ defense fell off a cliff this season, and more will be put on the shoulders of Johnson in this game with backfield partner in crime DJ Giddens not playing. To paint a picture of this Rutgers’ defense, the Knights allowed 41 fantasy points to UCLA’s Ethan Garbers and 36 fantasy points this season to Illinois’ Luke Altmyer.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is playable to a certain extent and there isn’t any Kansas State option that’s mispriced.
Bargain Bin – WR Jadon Jackson ($3,300) or WR Dante Cephas ($3,400) No Keagan Johnson and no Tre Spivey means Jackson / Cephas will function as the WR2/3 with 31% of the team’s receiving production not playing in this game. Cephas was the better option of the two down the stretch, playing 80% of the team’s receiving snaps over the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Dylan Edwards ($4,500) No DJ Giddens means spark-plug Dylan Edwards will get the start as RB1 – a potential preview of what we could see from the 167-pounder in 2025. Size is an issue, but K-State made that work before with college fantasy legend Deuce Vaughn in the past. The Rutgers run defense is atrocious, allowing 33 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields and 115th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayce Brown ($4,400) Clear WR1 with two other starting receivers in the portal, finishing the year with 69 targets, 42 receptions and five touchdowns. TE Garrett Oakley ($3,100) did not fill the shoes of Ben Sinnott like some expected but had a season-best 78 yards and a touchdown in the finale vs. Iowa State. Rutgers allowed 10.0 FPPG to tight ends this season. RB Joe Jackson ($3,000) will serve as the backup to Edwards with Giddens out and had 10 rushing attempts vs. Cincinnati. Not out of the realm of possibilities that Jackson has more carries than Edwards – 8 rushing attempts was Edwards’ season-high.
Injury Notes – RB DJ Giddens (NFL Draft), WR Keagan Johnson (portal), WR Tre Spivey (portal)
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green
Point-Spread: BG -7
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: BG 29.5 – Ark St 22.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 28% rain / 7 mph winds
Arkanss State:
Top Play(s) – WR Corey Rucker ($5,500) Stats show that Bowling Green does not allow many fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (20 FPPG combined), but that’s what happens when playing in a depleted MAC conference and facing Penn State and Texas A&M in the non-conference who didn’t have any fantasy-relevant wideouts. Rucker finished the year with 113 targets, good for 29% of the team’s share, and more than double the amount of targets than the next closest wideout.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is playable to a certain extent and there isn’t any Arkansas State option that’s mispriced.
Bargain Bin – TE Manny Stevenson ($3,100) Stevenson likely sees a heavy dosage of reps with TE2 Miller McCrumby in the transfer portal. Stevenson had at least three receptions in each of the final four games. Two tight ends scored 20+ fantasy points against Bowling Green this season.
Pivot Play – QB Jaylen Raynor ($7,200) Raynor didn’t take off in his sophomore season like some expected, but some reason for optimism with how he closes the year, scoring 19 or more fantasy points in four of his last five starts, and six combined passing touchdowns in the last two weeks. Rushing usage is a big reason why for the uptick, with double-digit carries in four of the last five games. Tough matchup as Bowling Green is No. 5 nationally in pass D success rate, giving up just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks. Running QBs had some success against Bowling Green – Drew Allar and Tucker Gleason both had rushing TDs, while Marcel Reed rushed for 91 yards on 12 attempts.
Best of the Rest – RB Zak Wallace ($5,100) or RB Ja’Quez Cross ($4,800) 55-45 split in carries between the two. Bowling Green is good enough defensively, allowing just 21 FPPG to running backs, to where you should not consider stacking the two together. Wallace is our preferred option with how he finished the year with eight of his 10 rushing touchdowns coming in the final five games. Cross is the better pass-catcher of the two, with 30 receptions on 40 targets, both are good for third on the team. WR Courtney Jackson ($4,800) finished second in targets (54) and catches (38).
Injury Notes – QB Timmy McClain (portal), TE Miller McCrumby (portal)
Bowling Green:
Top Play(s) – TE Harold Fannin ($9,100) As of now, all Bowling Green starters still with the team are expected to play on Thursday. Narrative thinking on Fannin. He’s 11 yards away from single season record by a tight end. Fannin is getting that. He’s also 12 receptions away from the single season record at the position. Does he want it? Does he care about it? Does Fannin opt out after breaking the yardage mark only? Lots to consider.
Fade – TE Levi Gazarek ($3,400) Only playable if Fannin sits out surprisingly. Gazarek is only a touchdown-dependent option with just 11 targets for the entire season.
Bargain Bin – WR Malcolm Johnson ($4,500) Five different receivers scored at least 24 fantasy points against Arkansas State this season, and Johnson is the best WR on the team with 47 receptions on 73 targets. WRs Rahkeem Smith ($3,300) and WR Finn Hogan ($3,600) are rotational pieces that play around just 50% of the team’s snaps because of how many two-tight end sets the team employs offensively.
Pivot Play – QB Connor Bazelak ($6,300) Arkansas State doesn’t do much well defensively, ranked 118th in pass D success rate, 108th in EPA per pass play and giving up over 22 FPPG to quarterbacks for the year. The second QB beyond Avery Johnson is completely wide open, so Bazelak is a definite option with how poor the Red Wolves are on that side of the ball.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaisun Patterson ($5,400) Same situation this year as last with the Bowling Green backfield. Terion Stewart will not play, as he’s off to Virginia Tech via the portal. Patterson “should” be RB1 in his place, but carries were distributed between multiple running backs a year ago. Don’t be shocked to see either Jamal Johnson or Justin Pegues figure into the equation on Thursday. That said, if Patterson does get the bulk of the carries, he’ll face a defense that ranked dead last in the country in rush D success rate and allowed 34 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Injury Notes – RB Terion Stewart (portal), WR Jaylon Tillman (portal)
Mike’s Core Four:
- QB Avery Johnson, Kansas State
- TE Harold Fannin, Bowling Green
- Rutgers Wide Receivers
- RB Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh
