Rutgers vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Rutg -2.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: Rutg 22 – Mia 19.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 35% rain / 9 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Kyle Monangai ($5,400) Monangai announced earlier this month that he’d be returning to the Scarlet Knights in 2024 after becoming one of the bigger surprises of the college football season. Not even expected to be the starter entering the year, the junior running back ran for 1,100 yards on the ground, finishing 18th nationally in attempts per game (18.3). Miami was solid against the run, allowing just 14 FPPG to RB1s and 19th in rush D success rate, so Monangai is not a smash play, but the volume will be there. The Canes will be without at least four regular contributors on the defensive side of the ball.
Fade – QB Gavin Wimsatt ($6,200) Six quarterbacks on the slate. Wimsatt has the lowest projection, lowest upside, and lowest floor. As of Wednesday writing this, Rutgers remains the slight betting favorite. When Rutgers has/gets a lead, they’ll pound away with Monangai and the running game. Week 3 in a blowout win vs. Virginia Tech is perfect evidence of this where Wimsatt attempted just 16 passes. Wimsatt is a fade in all DFS formats.
Bargain Bin – TE Shawn Bowman ($3,100) Bowman played over 90% of the offensive snaps in the season finale vs. Maryland and caught three passes on four targets. TE Johnny Langan did not play in that contest, and it appears he’s played his final collegiate snap based on a few articles out there. Seems like Langan will not play on Thursday.
Pivot Play – n/a. We’re already giving Rutgers players not named Kyle Monangai more attention than they deserve.
Best of the Rest – WRs. One Rutgers receiver maximum in a GPP lineup, nothing more, as the Scarlet Knights are 125th in pass play percentage. If Vegas is correct, I doubt Rutgers puts the ball in the air more than 25 times on Thursday, and Wimsatt completes just 48% of his passes as it is. Christian Dremel and Isaiah Washington led all Rutgers wideouts in routes run by a significant margin.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Evan Simon (transfer), WR Rashad Rochelle (transfer), RB Aaron Young (transfer), TE Johnny Langan (injury)
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacolby George ($5,300) Minimal interest on the Miami side in a game where the Canes will be down 15 regular contributors, including two along the offensive line and starting quarterback, along with playing in a cold weather atmosphere. George has been Miami’s most consistent receiving option the last month and a half with at least seven targets in seven of the last eight games. His athleticism could give this Rutgers secondary some trouble.
Fade – RB Ajay Allen ($5,000) Allen looked good in the season finale vs. Boston College, but his reps came in the second half with the game already out of hand. RB Mark Fletcher ($5,700) and RB Henry Parrish Jr. ($5,300) received all the reps with the starters in the first half. While Miami will ride the hot hand in the backfield, Allen is RB3 or RB4, and not worth considering at this salary. The Canes will also be down two starters along the offensive line, so they may struggle running the football regardless of who lines up in the backfield. Rutgers is a good, but not great run defense, allowing 15.4 FPPG to RB1s and 123rd in rush D success rate, so it’s not impossible for someone finds some running room.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Horton ($4,000) Horton caught more than one pass in a game just once this season but is expected to step into a starting role on Thursday with Colbie Young headed to Georgia via the transfer portal. Realistically, aside from Jacolby George and Xavier Restrepo, the Miami WR corps will be a mystery as the Canes have several 4-star freshmen available to play as well. Or maybe Tyler Harrell does something notable? Anything is possible during bowl szn.
Pivot Play – QB Jacurri Brown ($6,400) Simply put, I think there are four better QB options on the slate, with more experience and playing in better weather conditions. But…Brown can run, which is intriguing, as he accumulated over 4,000 yards on the ground during his high school career. Against Georgia Tech last season, Brown threw for three touchdowns while rushing for 87 yards on 19 attempts. An audition of sorts for Brown’s opportunity at QB1 for the Canes in 2024, though seems like Cam Ward’s impending arrival in Miami will happen any day now.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Restrepo ($5,700) After no clearing 50 receiving yards between Week’s 8-11, the junior slot receiver was back to his dominant self with over 300 receiving yards combined in the final two games, 193 of which coming against a very good Louisville secondary. Rutgers allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to receivers among teams playing in bowl games but playing in the B1G where offense is optional contributes to those numbers. WR Brashard Smith ($3,400) is the backup slot receiver to Restrepo but was targeted at least four times in five of the last seven games played this season.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Tyler Van Dyke (transfer), WR Colbie Young (transfer)
NC State vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -2.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: KSU 25 – NCSt 22.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 3% rain / 7 mph winds
NC State:
Top Play(s) – WR KC Concepcion ($7,000) Was there a better true freshman in all of college football? NC State’s team leader in every receiving category with 10 of the team’s 19 receiving touchdowns. 70 combined fantasy points in the last two games alone. Even more intriguing is that NC State is finding more ways to get their star playmaker the football as Concepcion finished with more rushing yards this season than any RB on the roster. His usage week in, week out, makes Concepcion a lock for me on this slate.
Fade – WR Keyon Lesane ($4,100) One more fade of Lesane this season for good measure. The senior is a listed starter on the depth chart and was second on the team in routes run in 2023. That amounted to just 28 receptions, zero touchdowns and failed to score double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season.
Bargain Bin – WR DJ Collins ($3,700) The Clemson transfer did not have the impact some thought he might in 2023, finishing 7th on the team in routes run with just 19 targets and two scores. One of those TDs did come in the finale vs. North Carolina, though, where Collins played his most offensive snaps of the season. Listed as a starter on the depth chart with multiple wideouts in the transfer portal, and the increase in playing time the last two weeks of the regular season is intriguing.
Pivot Play – RBs Kansas State did allow 19 FPPG this season to RB1s, but the B12 was loaded again with talented running backs. Overall, the Wildcats were 22nd in rush D success rate and 34th in EPA per run play defensively. Talented freshman Kendrick Raphael and Delbert Mimms will handle the workload in the backfield, but they’re downgraded with Concepcion getting so many opportunities to carry the rock. Mimms had 13 or more carries in two of the last three games, so he would be the preference over Raphael.
Best of the Rest – QB Brennan Armstrong ($7,100) We saw Jason Bean’s performance against UNLV, right? Similar circumstances in Armstrong’s final collegiate opportunity, and likely his last time playing football as I believe he wants to pursue a career in wrestling after this. Difficult matchup against a Kansas State defense that allowed just 15 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but Armstrong was at his best in the final three weeks, averaging over 30 FPPG in that span. 10+ rushing attempts is a near lock.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – TE Cedd Seabrough (transfer), RB Michael Allen (transfer), RB Jordan Houston (transfer), TE Chris Toudle (transfer), WR Porter Rooks (transfer), WR Anthony Smith (transfer), WR Terrell Timmons (transfer)
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($6,700) No Treshaun Ward to deal with and NC State will be without the services of the top linebacker in the country in Payton Wilson who opted out. 20+ rushing attempts is a lock, and while the Wolfpack allowed just 13.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, they’ll have to corral Giddens without their best player on defense.
Fade – TE Will Swanson ($4,000) Swanson will start in place of Ben Sinnott who declared for the NFL Draft, but he’s the blocking option of the two other tight ends on the roster. Garrett Oakley played in three fewer games, yet had more targets, receptions, and touchdowns. Shame that Sinnott isn’t playing, because he might be a lock against an NC State defense that allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends among teams playing in bowls.
Bargain Bin – WR Jadon Jackson ($3,600) or WR Keagan Johnson ($3,700) Limit one Kansas State pass catcher in your lineups as this could be a run-heavy offensive approach with Avery Johnson at the helm. With Brooks opting out and RJ Garcia in the portal, Jackson and Johnson will be the starters along with the man below. Just two receivers scored more than 18 fantasy points against NC State this season.
Pivot Play – WR Jayce Brown ($4,400) Even with Brooks in the lineup, Brown was emerging as KSU’s best wide receiver down the stretch with 60 or more receiving yards in four of his final seven games. Season-high 12 targets in the snow in the finale vs. Iowa State. He’s Kansas State’s WR1.
Best of the Rest – QB Avery Johnson ($7,200) Johnson’s fantasy output will be determined by how he throws the football without Kansas State’s two best pass-catchers in Sinnott and Phillip Brooks. We know the 4-star freshman is dynamic with his legs with 241 yards and six touchdowns on 46 carries. But the KSU staff rarely asked him to throw the football earlier in the year when splitting time with Will Howard. NC State allowed just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks and were 35th in pass D success rate, so this will be a challenge for Johnson and his arm. But 100+ rushing yards is absolutely on the table.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – WR Phillip Brooks (NFL), TE Ben Sinnott (NFL), QB Will Howard (transfer), WR RJ Garcia (transfer), RB Treshaun Ward (transfer)
Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: AZ -2.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: AZ 31.5 – OU 29
Weather: Dome
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Tet McMillan ($7,500) and / or WR Jacob Cowing ($6,700) One of the two should be in your lineups, and stacking both together is a potential option because of the top-heavy target share at a combined 59%. Next closest receiver has just 27 receptions. Oklahoma’s defense remains mostly intact and avoided major roster turnover but did allow close to 30 FPPG combined to opposing WR1s and WR2s.
Fade – n/a. All major contributors are an option. If anything, Arizona’s offensive production is centralized amongst the starters, so don’t expect much rotation with younger backups.
Bargain Bin – WR Montana Lemonious-Craig ($3,600) While MLC is a distant third behind both McMillan and Cowing from a production standpoint, the gap between Lemonious-Craig and the WR4 might be even wider. The former Colorado transfer was fifth on the team in targets (39) and receptions (27) but plays over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. Again, there is no rotation at receiver beyond the top three, so while a longshot, MLC is a possible option.
Pivot Play – RB Michael Wiley ($5,500) Interesting that Michael Wiley is the player getting listed at the prop market and not RB Jonah Coleman ($5,800) who had emerged as the team’s RB1 during the second half of the season. Coleman suffered an injury in Week 13 vs. Arizona State, leading to Wiley’s breakout performance with nearly 100 total yards of offense and three touchdowns. While it is confirmed Coleman will play, Wiley remains atop the depth chart. Do not stack the two together against a solid Oklahoma run defense that allowed 16 FPPG to RB1s and 22nd in EPA per run play.
Best of the Rest – QB Noah Fifita ($7,400) Phenomenal performance from Fifita to close the year with 527 passing yards and five touchdowns against a defeated Arizona State defense. Oklahoma’s opt outs were on the offensive side of the ball, not defense, and Fifita is a non-runner. So, while he’s an option, this isn’t a hammer play. Oklahoma allowed just 17.5 FPPG to quarterbacks. TE Tanner McLachlan ($4,200) is one of the better receiving tight ends in the country, ranking third on the team in all receiving categories (42 receptions / 51 targets). OU allowed 8.5 FPPG to TE1s in 2023.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Jayden de Laura (transfer)
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($6,000) There’s some hesitancy here because Oklahoma will head into this matchup with multiple starters on the offensive line opting out. But that’s also the situation in the backfield as Marcus Major is not listed on the depth chart and RB Tawee Walker ($3,000) is in the transfer portal. FWIW – Walker is still listed on the team depth chart, but there was separation in the OU backfield in November with Sawchuk averaging 20 touches per contest with four straight 100-yard rushing performances. Projections love Sawchuk in this spot, but the Arizona run D is solid, ranking 19th in EPA per rush play defensively and giving up just 16 FPPG.
Fade – n/a – All Sooner players are priced appropriately. Backup running back uncertainty would be the spot I’d probably avoid if I had to choose.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayden Gibson ($3,000) Unless I missed something obvious, this is a clear mispricing for a player in Gibson that scored a touchdown in each of his last three games. Top three starters are clearly established, but OU will undoubtedly mix in this talented redshirt freshman given the way he’s performed of late.
Pivot Play – QB Jackson Arnold ($7,300) OU fans finally get what they’ve been waiting for all season – the 5-star at the helm. Arnold can make all the throws to every level of the field, and a plus-athlete on the ground with 855 yards his senior season of high school. Arizona allowed just 16.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s – a very strong number considering the conference the Wildcats play in – but the advanced stats show the secondary as the weaker part of the defense, ranking 67th in pass D success rate and 69th in EPA per pass play. Strong projection for Arnold and his prop bets are juiced to the over so bettors are expecting points and yards.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Very similar to Arizona in that there is a wide gap in playing time between the top three of Nic Anderson, Drake Stoops and Jalil Farooq, and the next closest OU receiver. Stoops is the obvious preference with double-digit receptions in three of the final four games, and I’d suspect it common for the freshman QB to lean on his trusted 5th-year senior in a debut. Arizona allowed 16.3 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, and three of the top four highest scoring receivers to face the Wildcats were slot-men (Stoops).
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Dillon Gabriel (transfer), RB Marcus Major (transfer), WR Andrel Anthony (injury)
