Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: Miss St -10
O/U Total: 58.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 37% rain / 10 mph winds
Miss St:
When I locked in my College Fantasy Bowl league lineups, Will Rogers was the second player entered behind Bailey Zappe. Weather looks iffy as of Monday with 61 percent chance rain and 14 MPH winds, but let’s be honest here, that doesn’t matter a ton for Rogers with his 6.1 aDOT on the season as most of his passes are coming within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Mississippi State pass catchers holding onto a slick football might be the bigger issue in the wet conditions. Coming into bowl season, Rogers had the third-highest projection of any player, sitting behind Malik Willis and one spot ahead of Zappe – we saw what both players did in their respective performances. Don’t want to say lock, but I’ll have Rogers everywhere in my lineups facing a Tech defense that is 112th in Pass Play Success Rate and allowed 29.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Being 9.5-point favors matters not to a Mike Leach coached team and game script.
Not seeing anything regarding any injury news or opt-outs with the State receivers so I would assume that the rotations will be similar to what we saw in the regular season, beginning with WR1 Makai Polk who averaged 11 targets per game and had less than five receptions just once all season. Outside of that can be a crapshoot as to who gets the majority of targets because Leach will rotate in 6-7 other receivers throughout the contest. Malik Heath, Austin Williams and Jaden Walley (not necessarily in that order) are the priorities for me after Polk as they’ve seen the majority of snaps alongside Polk, regardless of what the depth chart reads. Lideatrick Griffin is listed behind Heath on the depth chart, and if there is a situation to monitor, that would be it as Heath does have a “questionable” tag on DraftKings after being involved in a car crash in early December. Griffin is the primary beneficiary there as he had 5-77-0 in the Egg Bowl finale vs. Ole Miss. I assume Heath is out, but haven’t seen official word on that personally. It would make Griffin a priority at min salary. Former Washington State transfer Jamire Calvin is listed as a starting slot receiver, but has made minimal impact this season outside of his two-TD performance against Auburn.
Three-way “OR” situation atop the depth chart at running back with J.J. Jernighan listed first, but that means absolutely nothing. Jo’Quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson continue to lead the way in offensive snaps – splitting time 50-50 in the finale vs. Ole Miss. High floor / low ceiling options with both unless Leach thinks MSU has an advantage in the trenches. One of two times that Marks topped 20+ fantasy points this season is when he got 20 carries vs. Kentucky. Marks saw that kind of volume just once all year. Tech was much improved down the stretch defending the run, limiting its last five opponents to under four yards a carry. That five-week span included, Deuce Vaughn, Kennedy Brooks, Abram Smith, Breece Hall and Jaylen Warren.
Texas Tech:
I believe most of the Tech starters are expected to play on Tuesday with the exception of WR1 Erik Ezukanma who declared for the NFL Draft and will sit out. An obvious blow to the Red Raiders offense, but they do have a collection of talented receivers in the pipeline that can fill those shoes. Depth chart reads that it would be former 4-star Loic Fouonji stepping in for EE, but it was 6-foot-4 redshirt FR J.J. Sparkman who saw extended playing time down the stretch, including a touchdown reception in garbage time in the loss to Oklahoma back in November. My early read is that Sparkman would start opposite new WR1 Kaylon Geiger on the outside, but will want to double check that pregame. As we saw late in the year with QB Donovan Smith in the lineup, Tech loved to take some deep shots to these tall lanky receivers, as shown by his 10.1 aDOT, and the coaching staff dialed up a few back shoulder fade routes to Ezukanma once the Raiders entered the red zone. Sparkman is fully capable of filling those shoes. Haven’t seen an update on slot receiver Myles Price and if he’ll play Tuesday, but he is sitting behind McLane Mannix on the depth chart if that is any indication (UPDATE – did return to practice as of Monday). Tight end Travis Koontz had a season-high 5-117-1 in the finale, but I think that heavily influenced his 11.5 projection this week. Those 117 yards accounted for 40 percent of his production on the season so I wouldn’t bank on him replicating those numbers.
Projections and salary indicate we absolutely must consider Smith as one of our quarterbacks on this slate, sitting at 22 projected points and just $5,400 on DraftKings. There were some bumps in the road, including his 9-for-29 performance against Oklahoma State in Week 12, but we have a dual-threat quarterback in a favorable matchup against a Mississippi State defense that gives up 24 FPPG to opposing QB1s. As was the case last year, teams struggled to run the football on the Bulldogs all year long, giving up just 3.35 YPC on the year – though over half of the total rushing TDs allowed this season came in the final three weeks. As a 9.5-point dog, Tech will likely have to take to the air vs. MSU, and for a QB that averaged 10 carries a game in four starts, I like Smith’s chances at matching value on his salary. I’m probably out on the three-headed backfield for Tech vs. a stout Mississippi State run defense. MSU will force Smith to beat them through the air. Tahj Brooks looked like the best RB in the room towards the end of the season, and did see the majority of work against Baylor in the season finale. He’d be my choice if rostering one.
Air Force vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: L’ville -1.5
O/U Total: 55
Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain / 13 mph winds
Air Force:
QB Haaziq Daniels does have the questionable tag on DK, but haven’t seen anything that will indicate he does not play on Tuesday. Louisville has pretty good media coverage so we should find out if Daniels is a go or not. A two-game slate is the only time I would give Daniels consideration, as there are too many other quarterbacks available to choose from. Truly the only reason to roster Daniels is for leverage as nobody will be rostering him, particularly with an option like Donovan Smith available that is $200 cheaper. Daniels hasn’t topped 20 fantasy points since Week 4, and we have him projected at just 12.8.
No surprise Brad Roberts is the highest-priced RB on the slate given he finished second in the country in volume, averaging 23.3 carries per game. What doesn’t correlate when looking at the numbers is Louisville ranking 107th in Rush Play Success Rate yet allowed just 13.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season which was 27th best in the country. Facing a triple-option defense that you are not used to facing, I’d side with the Air Force running game here being able to churn out yards. Biggest injury news that we’ll need to uncover is “wide receiver” Deandre Hughes who missed the season finale due to injury. Listed as a WR, but plays slot-back in the Air Force scheme, Hughes emerged as the second best runner on the team behind Roberts with over 300 yards in the final two games played. FWIW – Hughes is listed atop the depth chart, and like him quite a bit if he does play. Hopefully we get news beforehand. Out on any receivers for a team that averages 8.6 pass attempts per game.
Louisville:
Seems like months ago the last time we saw Malik Cunningham. Projects over 30 fantasy points in this matchup, but there are some definite arguments as to why we might fade him in this spot. For one, Air Force allowed just 17.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season which was the 14th best mark in the country. Cunningham will also be without two starters within the receiving corps as both Justin Marshall and Jordan Watkins entered the transfer portal seeking greener pastures. Lastly, Air Force can absolutely bleed the clock here if they are able to churn out yards on the ground, ranking No.1 in the country in time of possession. Not saying fade Cunningham here because his projection doesn’t indicate we should, just providing reasons as to why you could.
We’ve avoided Louisville receivers for much of the year, but I think this slate provides us an opportunity to roster one because of the departures. Slot receiver Ahmari Huggins-Bruce is our highest projected receiver and saw starter reps in the finale vs. Kentucky alongside the explosive Tyler Harrell who averaged over 31.6 yards per catch this season with five touchdowns. Harrell’s big-play ability and salary makes him the most enticing option of the group. Josh Johnson will start opposite Harrell on the outside per the depth chart and is min priced so he can’t be discounted. Air Force doesn’t see a ton of top-flight tight ends in the MWC, but allowed a combined 35 fantasy points to Cole Turner and Trey McBride. Marshon Ford has a solid close to the year with 60+ receiving yards in the last two games with a combined 13 targets. More than reasonable at $4,500. I’ll be fading the Louisville backfield against one of the best run defenses in the country that allows just 12.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Jalen Mitchell, IMO, is a prime transfer candidate this offseason as the Cardinals are bringing in Tennessee transfer Tiyon Evans to bolster the room. If Evans doesn’t beat him out, FR Trevion Cooley will. Mitchell doesn’t catch passes, and this is a three-way split between him, Cooley and Cunningham.
UCLA vs. NC State
Point-Spread: NC St -2
O/U Total: 60
Weather: 55 degrees / 35% rain / 13 mph winds
UCLA:
UCLA is dealing with COVID issues at the moment (who isn’t) but the latest article I read on the game doesn’t indicate any significant offensive pieces have missed practice. This will be Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s last game as a Bruin, whether it be to the NFL or transfer portal after the conclusion of this game. My guess is the NFL because he’s played exceptionally since returning from injury, completing 70 percent of his passes with nine total touchdowns, and averaging over 35 FPPG. That stretch included some bottom-tier Pac-12 opponents but impressive, nonetheless. This will be arguably DTR’s toughest test of the season against an NC State defense that is rock solid across the board. No. 5 in Passing Success Rate allowed and No. 7 in Rushing Success Rate. There really aren’t any weaknesses to this defense. Daunting task, but not impenetrable. The Wolfpack allowed three QBs to score 39 fantasy points or more on them this season, giving up 24.8 FPPG on average. DTR still projects well here at 28 fantasy points and this is the highest game total of the day.
I’m probably out on the UCLA RBs here with Brittain Brown now healthy and expecting to play alongside Zach Charbonnet in the backfield. NC State allows just 14.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s and we already covered how good they are at defending the run. Charbonnet being the second-highest salary among running backs means he’ll have very little ownership if you want to be contrarian in GPPs. The interesting choice here might be Kazmeir Allen who has converted to WR, but still listed as a RB on DraftKings. Not a ton of production but has scored 47 fantasy points in the last two games.
WR1 Kyle Philips has a healthy projection of over 18 fantasy points, but slot receivers struggle against NC State as they’re matched up with arguably the Wolfpack’s best defender in Tyler Baker-Williams. Trouble here is that UCLA does not have a solid No. 2 option on the outside. Chase Cota and Kam Brown combined for just three touchdowns all season. If looking to pivot away from Philips, the choice is TE1 Greg Dulcich as that duo accounts for 51 percent of the team target share. NC State has also succeeded against tight ends this season, limiting the position to just 4.0 FPPG. For these reasons, there is no issue in playing DTR naked in your lineups.
NC State:
Let’s start here with the backfield because there is a ton of uncertainty heading into Tuesday…and I don’t think it’ll even matter one damn bit because NC State hasn’t been able to run the ball successfully all year long. Ricky Person declared for the NFL Draft and despite being listed on the depth chart, it doesn’t sound like he’ll play (though not confirmed). Similar situation to Bam Knight who was injured late in the year and not sure if there is any incentive to him playing Tuesday if not 100 percent as he definitely has an NFL future himself. If both players are out, look for RB3 Jordan Houston to get the starting nod, though he has just 20 rushing attempts on the season. A career 4.7 YPC average with six touchdowns, he’s not devoid of talent, but the Wolfpack have not run the football well at all in 2021, ranking 84th in Rush Play Success Rate. UCLA’s second ranked rush defense in the Pac-12 is one of those high-level statistics that do not paint the entire story. The Bruins allowed 20.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and gave up 18 rushing touchdowns in the final six games alone. I’ll be fading this backfield, but Houston as a min priced player isn’t eliminated from the pool if both Knight/Person are out.
A depleted backfield means fire up the NC State passing offense from my vantage point, led the junior QB Devin Leary who was one of the most proficient quarterbacks in college football. And there is nothing to indicate that Leary won’t have his full complement of receivers to throw to, including Emeke Emezie, Thayer Thomas and Devin Carter. UCLA is average across the board as a pass defense, allowing 24.0 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and 60th in Pass Play Success Rate. Not to mention they won’t have the services of one of their best defenders and vocal leaders in safety Qwuantrezz Knight. Target distribution was evenly distributed amongst the top three, for the most part, with Emezie leading the way, but I might plant my flag with Thomas being the best play of the group. UCLA’s nickel corner grades out the lowest of the three starting defensive backs, and if you look over the course of the season, the Bruins did struggle some with slot receivers. Kayshon Boutte (played slot vs. UCLA in opener), Jalen Cropper, Gary Bryant Jr. and Ricky Pearsall all scored 29 fantasy points or more against the Bruins. What do they have in common? Played the slot in their matchups with UCLA. Thomas has also burned me plenty in DFS so that prediction could go terribly wrong. H-back Trent Pennix, who some compared to CFF legend Jaylen Samuels coming out of high school, has seen an uptick in production with 12 of his 17 receptions coming in the last five games. Pennix could also get a rushing attempt here or there, and might be utilized in the backfield if Person/Knight are out.
West Virginia vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -5
O/U Total: 45
Weather: 50 degrees / 48% rain / 2 mph winds
West Virginia:
Nobody on this offense projects over 17 fantasy points so our interest in West Virginia is likely minimal. New RB1 Tony Mathis might be the most popular play of the slate at $3,500 as he fills in for Leddie Brown who opted out of the bowl game. I doubt the offensive game plan changes much as Mathis proved in the season finale he has some ability, rushing for 118 yards on 22 carries vs. Kansas. Big difference between the Jayhawks and Gophers, though, as Minnesota allowed just 11.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season – 10th best mark in the country. West Virginia’s offensive line was improved in 2021, but still ranked 83rd in Line Yards and 56th in Rush Play Success Rate. I played enough DFS this year to know that it’s usually beneficial to fade these types of players in larger GPPs – particularly in a matchup like this that favors the Minnesota defense. I’ll be underweight on Mathis trying to gain some leverage against the field.
Not much drop-off between the Minnesota run and pass defense as the Gophers are 27th in Pass Play Success Rate and allowed just 19.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Jarret Doege gives us a decent floor and nothing else. Similar to quarterback on the opposite side, I won’t roster him, but may give the receivers a look considering WVU averages 34.7 pass attempts per game which is 31st in the country. Don’t see a depth chart in the West Virginia game notes but the one receiver we can cross out of the pool is Isaiah Esdale who is currently in the transfer portal. Five options to choose from at WR with very little separation in terms of target share between Winston Wright, Bryce-Ford Wheaton, Sam James, Sean Ryan and Kaden Prather. BFW did not play in the season finale but did tweet that it “feels good to be back” on Christmas Eve so I suspect he plays. Prather, the talented 4-star true freshman, really came on late in the year with nine catches on 15 targets in the final three games, seeing his snap counts increase dramatically. Bowl games are a perfect showcase for what to look for in 2022 so I suspect we see plenty of Prather – though he does share snaps with Ryan at the RWR spot. Looks like Ford-Wheaton (assuming he’s healthy) has the best matchup of the starters, going against CB Terell Smith who has a 45.3 coverage grade on Pro Football Focus – not good. Would expect low ownership since he missed the finale.
Minnesota:
As far as we know, there have not been any opt-outs on the Minnesota side so all the key offensive pieces should be a go for Tuesday. That includes offensive tackle Daniel Faalele so the Gophers offensive line should be intact which bodes well for the Minnesota run game featuring the two-headed backfield of Ky Thomas and Mar’Keise Irving. Should find some success vs. an average West Virginia run defense that started to slip in the second half of the season, allowing nearly five yards a carry combined to its list seven opponents and 17.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s. I’d suspect a similar game script to what we saw the final month of the season with 15-20 carries for Thomas and 10-15 for Irving with minimal usage in the passing game. The Minnesota beat writer expects around 25 passing attempts for Tanner Morgan on Tuesday, which would be five more attempts than his seasonal average of 19.6. His prediction there resides in the fact that Minnesota let go of offensive coordinator Mike Sanford following the regular season and the passing game could open up under new play-caller Matt Simon. Still off of Tanner Morgan against any secondary with a pulse. The West Virginia secondary lacks height, and we saw this season that the wide receivers with the size/speed combo gives this group all kinds of fits. Top scoring WRs against this defense featured Dontay Demus, Xavier Worthy, Tyquan Thornton and Tay Martin who all scored 21+ fantasy points vs. the Mountaineers. If Minnesota does open up the passing game, that bodes well for WR1 Chris Autman-Bell who fits the WR architype that succeeds against WV. CAB scored four touchdowns in the last three games of the regular season, and probably goes under-owned because of the lack of confidence in the Minnesota passing game.
Houston vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: Aub -2
O/U Total: 51.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 45% rain / 10 mph winds
Houston:
Give me Houston at +2.5 in this spot with Auburn missing a ton of key contributors in this matchup on both sides of the football. Motivation is absolutely on the side of the Cougars here as well, trying to nab an illustrious 12th win on the season, taking on a mediocre SEC opponent that lost their starting QB to the portal and fired their offensive coordinator. Looks like Houston is close to 100 percent from an offensive standpoint as far as availability for Tuesday, starting with QB Clayton Tune who will face an Auburn secondary without star cornerback Roger McCreary and safety Ladarius Tennison. Projections aren’t great, sitting at just 18.2 fantasy points, but I think it’s a good matchup for Tune as the Tigers allowed 25.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are 99th in Pass Play Success Rate. Of the two phases on defense, Auburn is far worse defending the pass as they’re 11th in Rush Play Success Rate and 31st in the country.
If the AAC Championship game was any indication, only three receivers of note for Houston to choose from with WR1 Nathaniel Dell, slot-man Jake Herslow and Jeremy Singleton. That trio combined for 24 of the 26 total targets vs. Cincinnati, with backup slot receiver Peyton Sawyer being the only other wideout that saw a target. Any of the three are viable options, particularly Dell against this depleted secondary without McCreary. Auburn struggled mightily to defend the tight end position this season, allowing 9.8 FPPG which was sixth worst in the country. Christian Trahan could be a nice pivot spot for your showdown lineups if fading the WRs. Don’t love this matchup for stud true freshman Alton McCaskill as Auburn is one of the better run Ds in the country, allowing just 15.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s which is very close to his projection. Houston’s offensive line is a below-average unit at moving the pile, ranking 127th in Stuff Rate and 113th in Line Yards. Not a complete fade, but won’t be overweight with my ownership of McCaskill.
Auburn:
After hints that Tank Bigsby was entering the portal earlier in the offseason, he announced his return to the Tigers and, as of Monday, looks to be playing in the bowl game. The sophomore running back is talented enough to succeed against any defense, but biggest concern might not be the Houston run defense that finished 11th in the country and allowed just 12.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Biggest issue might be the status of the offensive line that will be down three key components. Still think Auburn should find some level of success running the football, but another deterrent to Bigsby would be a healthy Jarquez Hunter who was not 100 percent in the final month of the season with just 15 combined carries – was averaging around 10 attempts per game between Weeks 1-9. Those two will get the bulk of the work with Shaun Shivers who is now at Indiana.
We’ll see if Auburn is listed on FD for the Tuesday main slate, but we only have the Tigers currently on DK for a showdown which means I suppose T.J. Finley must be considered. For me, this is an easy fade as I not only think Finley is a below average quarterback, but is facing a Houston defense that is second in the country in Pass Play Success Rate. Based on a question to Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen asking if the Cougars are preparing for backup Dematrius Davis, sounds like Finley may not even be 100 percent potentially. Three QBs this season topped 30+ fantasy points against the Cougars, but two of those came from Holton Ahlers and Timmy McClain who combined for 50+ rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Finley doesn’t have that in his repertoire. Projected at just over 14 points doesn’t move the needle at all. Only opt-out at receiver is Elijah Canion who transferred to Purdue so expect the normal starters to play here. Kobe Hudson is the best option of the bunch, averaging close to eight targets per game over the last four weeks, finding the end-zone in each of the final two games. Ja’Varrius Johnson, Demetris Roberson and Shedrick Jackson should all see plenty of reps – no preference of one over the other. Five tight ends topped 10+ fantasy points against Houston this season, so maybe John Samuel Shenker is a punt option, finishing the year with 28 receptions on 41 targets. Just two targets combined in the last two games.