Alabama vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: Ala -13.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Ala 28.5 – UM 15
Weather: 74 degrees / 6% rain / 8 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jam Miller ($4,200) Think this one is pretty cut and dry as Alabama’s top choice. Justice Haynes now plays for the team Alabama is facing in this bowl matchup. And Michigan will be without Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant who are going to be first-round NFL Draft selections in a few months.
Fade – QB Jalen Milroe ($10,300) Latest report on 12/26 from the Alabama 247 site is that Jalen Milroe is leaning towards entering the NFL Draft after this game. Good chance we see a Cam Ward-like situation develop here where backup Ty Simpson gets a significant number of snaps. And unlike the Miami – Iowa State game, there will be some defense played in this matchup. Easy fade, unless we see a confirmed report Milroe will play the entirety of the game.
Bargain Bin – RB Richard Young ($3,000) Don’t foresee Jam Miller instantly turning into a 25+ touch running back without Justice Haynes joining him in the backfield. Instead of a 50-50 split, that likely turns to 65-35 with Richard Young serving as the RB2 behind Miller. The freshman averaged nearly six yards a carry this season, including a 62-yard run in garbage time vs. Missouri.
Pivot Play – WR Rico Scott ($3,400) Who? Aside from Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, Jam Miller and tight end Josh Cuevas, the only other player remaining on the Alabama roster to score a touchdown this season is Rico Scott. Must think he’s the likeliest candidate to be the WR3 behind Williams and Bernard…and we question how much those two will even play on Tuesday.
Best of the Rest – WRs Ryan Williams ($6,700) or WR Germie Bernard ($4,000) Likely wouldn’t stack the two together with the uncertainties at quarterback so choose one or the other. Michigan will not have Will Johnson who declared for the NFL Draft, and we know how much Alabama relied on their WR duo this season, accounting for 47% of the target share and 10 of the team’s 16 receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – RB Justice Haynes (portal), WR Kendrick Law (portal), WR Kobe Prentice (portal), WR Emmanuel Henderson (portal), WR Caleb Odom (portal), TE Danny Lewis (portal)
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Marshall ($3,000) Practice reports coming out of Michigan have Marshall leading the backfield ahead of RB Benjamin Hall ($3,000), though we’ll likely see a similar split to that of Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings like we saw during the regular season. Most of Michigan’s offensive line should be intact for this game and we know the goal of the Wolverine offense in most game settings…run the ball.
Fade – QB Davis Warren ($5,100) Michigan isn’t going to air it out suddenly, despite missing its top two running backs.
Bargain Bin – TE Marlin Klein ($3,400) Klein will start in place of Colston Loveland who opted out for the NFL Draft. Michigan views Klein as the next man up for 2025, and we already have evidence of the Wolverines playing with Klein as TE1 as they did in the finale vs. Ohio State. The 6-foot-6 sophomore played 75% of the team’s offensive snaps and converted on all three of his targets.
Pivot Play – WR Peyton O’Leary ($3,000) WR1 Tyler Morris is in the portal. Huge risk betting on a walk-on that has only made plays in a Michigan spring game a few years back, but O’Leary did garner the second-most snaps of any Wolverine wideout in the Ohio State matchup. He’s the big-bodied option at 6-foot-3.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Along with O’Leary, it was WR Semaj Morgan ($3,200) and WR Kendrick Bell ($3,000) running with the starters in bowl practices. Maximum one Michigan pass-catcher to a lineup.
Injury Notes – WR Tyler Morris (transfer portal), RB Donovan Edwards (opt-out), RB Kalel Mullings (opt-out), TE Colston Loveland (opt-out)
Louisville vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UL -2.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UL 26.5 – UW 24
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Isaac Brown ($7,100) Washington was 15th of 18 teams in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground and 118th in rush D success rate. Brown has scored at least 18 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games played, with the only game he didn’t being the one he left due to injury.
Fade – QB Harrison Bailey ($5,200) Washington’s secondary looks to be intact for Tuesday and was a group that allowed just 14 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Just one QB scored more than 18 fantasy points all year against the Huskies, so we’re out on a backup quarterback playing without the team’s WR1.
Bargain Bin – TE Mark Redman ($3,400) For as good as the Washington pass defense was this season, they struggled somewhat to defend the tight end position. Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren and Moliki Matavao all scored over 16 fantasy points against the Huskies. Redman has played over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps since Week 9.
Pivot Play – RB Duke Watson ($5,300) Should be a run-heavy script for Louisville on Tuesday given the roster circumstances and the UW run defense being its weakness. I’ve been very impressed with Watson when on the field, with multiple 100-yard rushing performances in the last three games. His breakaway run percentage on Pro Football Focus is actually better than Isaac Brown.
Best of the Rest – WR Caullin Lacy ($4,500) Lacy is on the depth chart, and a quick Twitter search is indicating that he will in fact play in the bowl game. The former South Alabama transfer has already confirmed he’s returning in 2025 and performed well when healthy with 50 or more receiving yards in three of four games played. WR Chris Bell ($4,800) is the other known commodity at wideout with two 100-yard receiving performances this year. Would limit one Louisville wide receiver per lineup as just two wideouts scored more than 20 fantasy points against Washington all season. WR Cataurus Hicks ($3,700) is the listed starter at receiver filling in for Ja’Corey Brooks.
Injury Notes – TE Jamari Johnson (portal), RB Don Chaney (portal), RB Keyjuan Brown (portal), WR Jadon Thompson (portal), QB Tyler Shough (opt-out), WR Ja’Corey Brooks (opt-out), WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (opt-out)
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonah Coleman ($6,400) Excited for this Washington offense headed into 2025. We’ll see a glimpse of QB1 Demond Williams Jr. Denzel Boston will return for his sophomore season, along with the addition of Texas transfer Johntay Cook. But most importantly, RB1 Jonah Coleman also announced his return to the Huskies next year, so he’ll be full-go in this bowl game. Not a lock because Louisville was relatively strong against the run this year, ranked 8th in the ACC in yards allowed and gave up just 21 FPPG combined to opposing backfields. But he’s the safest and best option on the board for Washington.
Fade – WR Rashid Williams ($3,500) There was a moment where Williams seemed to be overtaking Jeremiah Hunter in the middle of the season. Not the case anymore, as Williams was not targeted once in four of his last five games.
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($3,600) Latu finished tied for third on the team in targets (44) and third in receptions (36), facing a team in Louisville that allowed 10.8 FPPG to the tight end position.
Pivot Play – QB Demond Williams ($5,600) Williams will get the bowl game start over Will Rogers and will have his full compliment of offensive weapons at the skill positions in this game as well. Louisville struggled mightily against dual-threat QBs like Williams, allowing 25 FPPG with five different quarterbacks scoring 26 or more fantasy points in their matchup with the Cardinals. Some of those included Riley Leonard, Tyler Huff and Ashton Daniels – all of which succeeded on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Of the 248 targets this season that went to Washington receivers, 226 went to the top three of Denzel Boston, Giles Jackson and Jeremiah Hunter. All three played over 75% of the snaps against Oregon in the season finale and there was very little rotation. RB Adam Mohammed ($3,100) might be the only other Washington player on the roster I’d potentially consider as the 4-star moved up to RB2 on the depth chart with Cam Davis hitting the portal.
Injury Notes – RB Cam Davis (portal), WR Keith Reynolds (portal)
South Carolina vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: SC -10.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: SC 30 – Illini 19.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 6% rain / 12 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB LaNorris Sellers ($8,500) My top QB on the slate with the way Sellers closed the year, scoring 30 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games. QBs averaged 16% more fantasy points than their seasonal averages this season when facing Illinois this year. Ryan Browne (35 fpts) and Athan Kaliakmanis (34 fpts) posted their season-highs in fantasy production when facing this Illini defense.
Fade – n/a. No outright fades. I’d limit my exposure to WR Jared Brown ($3,500) and WR Gage Larvadain ($3,200) as they were working with the second-team offense in bowl practices. They’ll rotate in, but not as starters.
Bargain Bin – WR Joshua Simon ($3,500) Simon has been South Carolina’s best pass-catcher for much of the season, finishing with a team-high 34 receptions on 46 targets. He was a beast down the stretch, coinciding with Sellers’ late-season heroics, with five of his six touchdowns coming in the last five games. Five tight ends scored 9 or more fantasy points against Illinois this season.
Pivot Play – RB Oscar Adaway ($3,400) Conventional wisdom would suggest Adaway gets the starting nod at running back with Rocket Sanders opting out, given that he was third on the team in carries. The former North Texas transfer wasn’t very effective, though, averaging just 3.6 YPC for the season, and there’s a very good chance we see a heavy rotation with Jawarn Howell and Juju McDowell all in the mix. Illinois finished 14th in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground and 125th in rush D success rate, though, so a good chance someone is productive in the SC backfield.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Starters in practice reports indicate it’ll be Nyck Harbor, Mazeo Bennett Jr. and Dalevon Campbell as the starters on Tuesday. Limit to just one South Carolina wide receiver in a lineup as no wideout had more than 14% of the team’s target share in 2024.
Injury Notes – RB Rocket Sanders (opt-out), TE Brady Hunt (injury)
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Zakhari Franklin ($4,400) Franklin is really the only Illinois skill position player that is guaranteed to touch the ball on Tuesday. Between Franklin and counterpart Pat Bryant, that wide receiver duo accounted for 54% of the team’s target share and 13 of the 21 receiving touchdowns. And now Pat Bryant has opted out in preparation for the NFL Draft.
Fade – QB Luke Altmyer ($6,600) South Carolina’s pass defense is its strength, ranked 31st in success rate per drop back and only allowing 13.2 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season.
Bargain Bin – Secondary WRs. Who that’ll be is unknown with no official Illinois depth chart as of Monday writing this. WR Hank Beatty ($3,200) and WR Collin Dixon ($3,300) are safe bets, ranking fourth and fifth on the team, respectively, in targets…but both played over 70% of their snaps in the slot. WR Malik Elzy ($3,100), once thought to be the WR2 behind Bryant after a strong spring, could get the nod on the outside opposite Franklin.
Pivot Play – RB Josh McCray ($4,000) or RB Aidan Laughery ($3,900) Call a spade a spade – Illinois’ backfield is a committee. Choose whomever you’d like at your own peril, but make sure to not stack the Illinois backfield in any lineup. Just two running backs have scored over 20 fantasy points this season vs. South Carolina, as the Gamecocks allowed just 18 FPPG combined to backfields in the regular season.
Best of the Rest – TE Tanner Arkin ($3,100) Finished third on the team in targets (27) and tied for second in touchdowns (3). Best ability is availability…or something like that…which applies to Arkin who is on the field over 90% of the time.
Injury Notes – WR Pat Bryant (opt-out), TE Henry Boyer (portal)
Baylor vs. LSU
Point-Spread: Bayl -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Bayl 31.5 – LSU 28
Weather: Dome
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – QB Sawyer Robertson ($8,000) Normally wouldn’t be on Robertson here as his projection feels a touch low for his salary, but the QB position is very light for this slate, so we’ll side with Robertson as the top play over Bryson Washington. LSU will be without one starting safety and one reserve cornerback that we know of, and Baylor should have close to its full complement of wide receivers available. LSU allowed around 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, and dual threats really gave the Tigers fits.
Fade – WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($3,500) Maybe not an outright fade but would limit exposure on Hawkins on the slate. Listed in an OR on the depth chart, Hawkins was seen with a cast on his hand in Week 14, playing only a handful of snaps. The senior WR tweeted out that he’s catching passes, but does that mean he’ll be full-go?
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Trigg ($3,100) 12 of Trigg’s 30 receptions this season came in the final month of the season, finishing fourth on the team in targets (49). LSU did manage to corral most tight ends faced, allowing just 6.1 FPPG to the position during the regular season.
Pivot Play – RB Bryson Washington ($8,500) LSU finished 13th of 16 teams in the SEC in yards allowed per game on the ground, and each of the last five opponents faced averaged well over four yards per carry against the Tigers. 15 of the 24 rushing touchdowns allowed this season came in that 5-game span. Not a recipe for success when about to face arguably the best running back in college fantasy football the final month of the season in Washington.
Best of the Rest – WRs. No real preference here as to the Baylor WRs so pick your favorite between Josh Cameron, Hal Presley, Monaray Baldwin or Ketron Jackson. Cameron led the team in every receiving category but had just 18 percent of the team target share as the Bears really spread things out this season. Cameron and Baldwin were targeted 18 times in the Week 14 finale (If Hawkins is out, Baldwin gets a significant bump).
Injury Notes – QB Dequan Finn (portal)
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Aaron Anderson ($5,700) There might be another WR at a better value that we’ll highlight below, but the Alabama transfer was so consistent this season, with 60 or more receiving yards in all but three games. There will be plenty of targets to go around with LSU down its WR1, WR3 and TE1.
Fade – RB Caden Durham ($6,300) Too expensive here. Josh Williams is playing. LSU beat writer suggested Kaleb Jackson is going to get a look as well (and hasn’t entered the transfer portal yet either which is telling). Baylor finished the season 7th nationally in rush D success rate, giving up just 20 FPPG combined to opposing backfields. Just feels too pricey for Durham in what might be a three-man rotation. Oh yea, and LSU might be down three starting offensive linemen.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Hilton ($3,700) Hilton’s Week 14 performance against Oklahoma is the reason folks drafted him in the latter rounds of CFF Drafts in the summer, hauling in 85 yards and two scores vs. the Sooners. Baylor allowed a combined 40 FPPG to opposing wide receivers during the regular season.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($9,100) I’d put Nussmeier as my 4th QB option for this slate behind Sellers, Robertson and Demond Williams, but there’s a chance LSU slings the ball around in what could be a high-scoring game. Baylor’s pass defense can be leaky, ranked 70th in success rate and allowed four QBs to score over 26 fantasy points this season.
Best of the Rest – TE Trey’Dez Green ($3,000) Green will fill in as TE1 and is actually the only scholarship tight end remaining on the roster. He’ll get all the snaps he can handle on Tuesday. No official LSU depth chart as of Sunday but would imagine that WR Zavion Thomas ($3,600) starts in place of Lacy on the outside.
Injury Notes – TE Mason Taylor (opt-out), WR Kyren Lacy (opt-out), WR Shelton Sampson (portal), TE Ka’Morreun Pimpton (portal), WR CJ Daniels (portal)
Penn State vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: PSU -11.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: PSU 36.5 – BSU 25
Weather: Dome
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($7,500) Singleton has been rolling the last four games with double-digit carries and averaging over six yards per attempt. And that’s just in the rushing department. Singleton now sits third on the team with 53 targets on the year, is second in receiving touchdowns (5) and was targeted seven times vs. SMU in a Penn State blowout.
Fade – Stacking Penn State RBs. If you had the Penn State duo if Singleton and RB Kaytron Allen ($5,800) last week, you likely finished in the money. I wouldn’t risk that this week even with the Nittany Lions as a double-digit favorite. In the regular season, Boise State allowed a combined 14.4 FPPG to opposing backfields. Penn State is a different challenge than MWC opponents, and we’re fine with Singleton or Allen in a lineup, just not stacked together.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($4,300) A healthy Harrison Wallace is a difference maker as we’ve seen the second half of the season, averaging 6.2 targets and 58.2 receiving yards in the last five games. Those numbers may seem modest, but considering the opponent, we’ll want some exposure here. Boise State allowed a whopping 51.2 FPPG combined to opposing wide receiver rooms this year.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Allar ($8,100) Allar was a bust last week as he was not needed in the SMU blowout. He’ll sit 5th or 6th for me on the QB pecking order for this slate, but two reasons to potentially play him. (1) This game will be more competitive. (2) Boise State allowed 22 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season, with four QBs scoring over 27 fantasy points against the Broncos. Allar will also have significantly less ownership than he did a week ago.
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Warren ($7,500) Similar to Allar, Warren will likely be needed more this week than he was against SMU. Just one tight end this season scored double-digit fantasy points against Boise this year, but tight end production really isn’t prevalent in the Mountain West. WR Liam Clifford ($3,100) or WR Omari Evans ($3,400) are the second and third options at receiver for Penn State, and worthy of consideration given the susceptibility of the Boise secondary.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Camper ($4,600) We assume Boise will need to be throwing more than usual, and Camper is the team’s leader in every receiving category but touchdowns. Just one wide receiver this season scored more than 20 fantasy points against Penn State during the regular season, so there’s not a necessity to have any Boise State receivers in a lineup.
Fade – QB Maddux Madsen ($7,000) Penn State allowed 9.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season and Madsen isn’t any better than the scrapheap of mediocrity that Penn State faced in the B1G.
Bargain Bin – TE Matt Lauter ($3,400) If there was one position group offensively that Penn State struggled with in the regular season, it was tight ends. Harold Fannin had 30+ fantasy points. Max Klare, who now transferred from Purdue to Ohio State, posted 22 fantasy points. Lauter isn’t on that level, but a formidable opponent, ranked second on the team in targets (60), receptions (43) and first in touchdowns (6).
Pivot Play – WR Latrell Caples ($3,500) Boise State primarily runs their offense in 12 personnel, meaning two tight ends and two wide receivers on the field. Caples and Camper are the only Boise State receivers that are consistently on the field for 3/4s of the game. So if not Camper or Lauter, Caples is your best bet.
Best of the Rest – RB Ashton Jeanty ($10,300) We know the drill here, no reason to belabor the point. The biggest issue with playing Jeanty is that RB is so strong on the slate, that there’s no reason to play the Boise RB, outside of going with just one quarterback. And QB is strong on the slate as well. Jeanty is closer to a fade than a play. WR Austin Bolt ($3,200) or WR Prince Strachan ($3,300) are extreme longshot plays as they’re on the field just 40% of the time. Bolt’s big play ability could be a factor, ranked third with four touchdowns and an aDOT of 14.4 yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s Core Four:
- QB LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
- RB Jam Miller, Alabama
- RB Isaac Brown, Louisville
- RB Nick Singleton, Penn State
