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Utah vs. Florida
Point-Spread: Utah -2.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Utah 27 – Florida 24.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 100% rain / 7 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Tavion Thomas ($5,800) Simply too cheap here and will see extremely high ownership. Thomas accumulated 88% of his seasonal rushing total over the last nine games of the year, and he set a new single-season school record with 21 rushing touchdowns. Thomas could have leveraged his big year into an opportunity to declare for the NFL Draft, but instead choose to return for another season. The 6-foot-2 and 221-pound fifth-year junior will be the heartbeat of the offense, and he’ll be running behind an offensive line that returns four starters from last year’s Pac 12 Championship team.
Fade – WRs outside of Devaughn Vele Both tight ends, who we’ll touch on in a bit, had a higher target share last season than the WR2 and WR3 for the Utes.
Bargain Bin – TE Dalton Kincaid ($3,800) A very talented player that was rumored to transfer to Alabama over the offseason as he was getting bags of cash thrown at him. Strength of the Florida defense is in the secondary at cornerback, and we’re reading that the Utes will look to attack the middle with their dynamic pair of tight ends. Kincaid saw far less targets (45) but led the team with eight receiving touchdowns.
Pivot Play – WR Devaughn Vele ($5,300) Not investing a ton in this passing attack, but Vele is the clear-cut WR1 heading into the year with Britain Covey no longer around. Tremendous size at 6-foot-5, Vele only converted on 51% of his targets, but averaged 16.9 YPC with a 19.5 aDOT. Big-play potential.
Best of the Rest – TE Brant Kuithe ($4,200) was second on the team last year with 18.8% target share and 50 receptions. QB Cam Rising ($5,700) accounted for three or more touchdowns in nearly half of the games he started last season. Cheap enough to deserve consideration but an 18-point projection doesn’t get me excited.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Richardson ($5,000) The straw that stirs the drink. And this is likely his lowest cost of the season. Average positional finish for quarterbacks under Billy Napier in CFF the last five seasons? QB68. Manny Wilkins in 2017 at Arizona State is the comp we hope for with Anthony Richardson this season if he is to live up to the lofty expectations some have set. Wilkins averaged 32 pass attempts per game that year – five more than the seasonal average of Louisiana QBs during Napier’s tenure. Wilkins also posted 138 rushing attempts. Richardson had 401 rushing yards on just 51 attempts. What kind of numbers can he post with 100+ carries?
Fade – WRs No need to pair Richardson with any Florida pass-catchers if Napier’s numbers from Louisiana transfer over. Under 16% target share for the WR1 each of the last two years. The ball is spread around.
Bargain Bin – RB Nay’quan Wright ($4,300) RB1 averages for Napier in his last five seasons of calling plays – 951 yards and 12.6 touchdowns per season. Thought that perhaps Louisiana transfer Montrell Johnson or Lorenzo Lingard would begin the year as the starter, but Wright has been the guy during fall camp. Exceptional pass-catcher out of the backfield with 34 receptions in three years.
Pivot Play – RB Montrell Johnson ($5,300) Learning curve was obviously not steep for Johnson as he came over with Napier from Louisiana, and earned the backup spot on the depth chart. As we know over the years, RB2 earns significant carries in this system, averaging 12.4 attempts per game. Wright has never been a full-time starter in his career, so wouldn’t surprise us to see a shared backfield.
Best of the Rest – WR Justin Shorter ($5,000) Likely WR1 for the Gators this season after coming on strong in the second half of 2021, finishing the year with 41 receptions, 550 yards and a 13.4 YPC average. Again, no need to pair a receiver with Richardson for the slate.
Injury Notes – WR Ricky Pearsall ($3,800) Had missed the last few weeks or so with a foot injury, but Napier said Pearsall should be good to go and was not included on the injury report.