Virginia Tech @ Boston College
Point-Spread: Va Tech -3
O/U Total: 47.5
Weather: 40 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
I thought this season was in the dumpster for the Hokies after the heart-breaking loss in Week 8 to Syracuse, but Virginia Tech bounced back with one of their better performances of the season with a solid 26-17 win over Georgia Tech. Fire up freshman running back Malachi Thomas this week as he looks for his third straight 100-yard performance against a BC defense that is missing key pieces at linebacker, and have given up 291 and 331 rushing yards in the last two games to Syracuse and Louisville. Unsurprisingly, Thomas’ emergence the last two weeks has resulted in Virginia Tech’s two best offensive performances of the season. I think we can even consider backup Raheem Blackshear in this case as well. Despite Thomas getting 20+ touches the last two weeks, Blackshear’s involvement in the offense hasn’t wavered with 11 and 16 touches, respectively, in the last two games. BC ranks dead-last in ACC in tackles for loss this season so we should get a lot of positive gainers from the duo.
A two-game slate is the only scenario in which I’m looking to roster QB1 Braxton Burmeister. The junior quarterback’s best performance of the year came last week with 300 total yards and two passing touchdowns against Georgia Tech, but this offense continues to have struggles with consistency as the Hokies scored just 12 points from the 2nd quarter on after two touchdowns in the first quarter. BC is allowing 22.4 FPPG to opposing QBs this year, but the Eagles are third in the ACC in scoring defense. They held Garrett Shrader in check last week, and limiting both Louisville and Clemson under their season totals. Outside of Cam Rising, though, Burmeister is the QB I have the most confidence in for Friday (yuck).
No deep dive on the receivers here as Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson account for 57 percent of the target share. Turner gets the edge in our projections coming off a season-high 187 yards on 12 targets in the win over Georgia Tech. WR3 Kaleb Smith played the majority of the offensive snaps, but results in just one reception on three targets. Rarely a factor in this passing offense.
Boston College:
I’ve seen some whispers on social media that we could potentially see Phil Jurkovec make his return on Friday night. Think we should treat them as such right now – just whispers – but it would be a welcomed return after what BC has been trotting out at quarterback of late. Dennis Grosel was finally replaced last week in the 21-6 loss to Syracuse by Emmett Morehead, and according to 247Sports, “it looks like he is a good chance to get the starting nod against Virginia Tech.” I can’t say I know much about the player as Morehead is a 6-foot-6 true freshman that did not play a single high school game as a senior due to COVID. If Jeff Hafley sticks with a rotation like he did last week, we can completely count this spot out. Virginia Tech is allowing 27.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s but those numbers are heavily swayed by the 59-point performance from Garrett Shrader. Overall, the Hokies are 9th in the country in Pass Play Success Rate so this really isn’t a great matchup for whoever is at QB.
Where Virginia Tech struggles is defending the run, so this is a good week to fire up Pat Garwo? The Hokies have allowed four 20+ point performances this year from opposing running backs. Virginia Tech is 12th in the ACC in rush defense having allowed both Syracuse and Georgia Tech to average over six yards a carry in the last two weeks. And are 107th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively and 117th in Rush Play PPA. Garwo continues to average nearly six yards a carry this season despite terrible offensive line play in front of him, and sounds like Hafley is ready to make some changes to his starting five.
If Morehead does get the start over Grosel, he does not lack for arm strength and did try and test the Syracuse secondary last week with an aDOT of 16.3. Wasn’t always accurate but at least he attempted to stretch the defense. Does that bode well for Zay Flowers? Double-digit targets in three of his last four games, and topped 100 yards receiving for the first time since Week 1. Flowers is really the only receiver of interest here. Slot receiver Jaelen Gill saw the second-most snaps of any wideout against the Cuse last week, and was second on the team with seven targets. CJ Lewis and Jaden Williams look to be rotating at the LWR spot. Tight end Trae Barry (knee) is considered day-to-day. Spencer Whitter would start in his place.
Utah @ Stanford
Point-Spread: Utah -7.5
O/U Total: 54
Weather: 52 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Utah:
If you keep up with our weekly CFF content, you’d know that QB Cam Rising and RB Tavion Thomas are near locks for Friday night. Thomas has erased his fumbling issues that caused him to be benched earlier in the year and now has topped 20+ carries in each of the last three games, and has found the end-zone in the last four. Against what was statistically the best rush defense in the Pac-12 in UCLA, Thomas went OFF last week with 160 rushing yards and four touchdowns, dominating most of the volume in the Utes’ backfield. If Thomas found success against the best defense in the conference, what do you think is going through his head now with a matchup against the worst rush defense in the Pac-12? Thomas is a free square for Friday. As for Rising, I think we also have to lock him in as the most trustworthy QB in this two-gamer, scoring 23 or more fantasy points in each of the last four games. I’d be shocked if the winning lineup doesn’t have these two players – barring Utah just not needing to pass much against this Stanford run D. T.J. Pledger is Thomas’ primary backup, rushing for 61 yards on eight carries last week, and tends to come in on passing downs as a change of pace to the bruising RB1.
Receiver isn’t as straight-forward because Utah doesn’t have a true go-to wideout to depend on. Projections look spot on without a receiver topping double-digit fantasy points, but I’m really warming up to the idea of 6-foot-4 sophomore Devaughn Vele for Friday. After the bye week, Vele’s snap counts have risen significantly as hes on the field over 80 percent of the time. Being on the field doesn’t always equate to production, as Vele has just one TD in that span, but has tallied at least three receptions in every game. Theo Howard and Britain Covey join Vele in the starting lineup, with Solomon Enis as a rotational option. Nothing about their usage stands out one way or another to argue for or against them as a lineup option. Tight end Brant Kuithe is essentially in a timeshare at tight end with Dalton Kincaid and Cole Fotheringham, but has still found a way to be productive with three catches in every game this season and three TDs in the last three weeks. Stanford has done a great job at limiting tight ends this season, allowing just 5.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s – limited both Greg Dulcich and Cade Otton to under eight fantasy points.
Stanford:
Injuries to monitor here with QB1 Tanner McKee’s status up in the air with an unspecified injury. Of course, David Shaw provided no update. Fourth-year senior Jack West would start in McKee’s place, and has seen the field just once since throwing two interceptions in the season-opener against Kansas State. This Utah defense is mediocre across the board, but probably better on the backend where the Utes are 46th in Pass Play Success Rate. Don’t think we can start any Stanford QB here with the injuries continuing to mount for the Cardinal at receiver as both Elijah Higgins and John Humphreys are both questionable. Team will get a significant boost with the return of Michael Wilson who will make his first appearance of the season as the team designated him “full-go” for this week. Against Washington last week, Higgins, Silas Starr and Bryce Farrell dominated the snap counts among the Stanford receivers, and combined for six receptions on 12 targets. Tight end Ben Yurosek continues to be a stabilizing force for the Stanford passing game amid all the injuries with 17 receptions on 22 targets in the last three weeks.
This is a pedestrian Utah run defense that allows 15.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 78th in Rush Play Success Rate, but I don’t think we can roster any Stanford running back given how putrid the offensive line has been this season both in run blocking and pass protection. 121st in Power Success Rate, 120th in Stuff Rate, 120th in Line Yards, 124th in Rush Play Success rate. Just disgusting. Austin Jones led the way against Washington last week with 16 carries for 62 yards, and remains a factor in the passing game with 25 receptions on 27 targets this season. Still too expensive at $6,100.
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