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Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -3.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: OU 32.5 – Bay 29
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 15 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($6,000) Reese has been overlooked in GPPs the last few slates with the RB position being as loaded as it is. Don’t think that’ll be the case this weekend as we haven’t seen a dramatic price increase and is projected at over 22 fantasy points, facing an OU defense that is 107th in rush play success rate. I think the only “concern” here, if it really is even one, is the quote from Dave Aranda this week stating that they’ll “look to ease up” on Reese’s workload. Said the team will try to emphasize a run by committee approach with Qualan Jones ($3,400). Coach speak or the truth?
Fade – WR Monaray Baldwin ($6,700) Best suggestion is to fade the entire Baylor WR corps given that no wideout has more than 16% of the target share. We’re especially fading Baldwin here at his $6,700 price tag as we do not know if the sophomore receiver will even play on Saturday with Aranda saying he is working out this week to recover from his hamstring injury. Easy fade here unless he’s confirmed starting.
Bargain Bin – WR Hal Presley ($4,100) The former Auburn transfer has now scored a touchdown in two of the last three games, coming off a season-high nine targets in the win over Texas Tech last week. We’re hesitant to play any Baylor WR as noted above, but Presley is now leading the team in targets and second in receptions, touchdowns and aDOT (16.2) for the season.
Pivot Play – QB Blake Shapen ($6,100) We’re getting four touchdowns somehow from Baylor this week and the Bears are a 3.5-point dog on the road, so we figure they’ll have to throw it some on Saturday. Analytically, the Sooners’ pass defense is better than the run defense, ranking 84th in pass play success rate and 64th in explosiveness allowed. But we’ve also seen four quarterbacks now score 30 or more fantasy points this season vs. the Sooners with Max Duggan and Adrian Martinez hitting 50+. Don’t think Shapen has 50 fantasy points in his repertoire as a non-runner, but 30 is well within the range of potential outcomes here against this defense.
Best of the Rest – TE Ben Sims ($4,300) The senior tight end remains a key cog in the Baylor passing game, now first on the team in receptions (26), second in targets (34) and second in routes run. Low ceiling play, scoring single digits in the past four games. WR Gavin Holmes ($5,100) played just 43 of 91 offensive snaps against Tech last week as Baylor went to two-tight end sets frequently in run formations as they were leading much of the night. Still managed 5-77-0 on six targets and is the high-upside/low-floor play of the Baylor WRs.
Injury Notes – See above on Monaray Baldwin.
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Mims ($6,900) In reality, nobody for Oklahoma projects well this week and could be a full-team fade despite being projected to score 32 points this week. Just feels time for a Marvin Mims blowup game, coming off one of his worst performances of the year last week against Iowa State with a pair of drops. Mims still leads the team by a comfy margin with 26% of the target share and No. 1 in routes run. This is a GPP only and should not be considered for cash. In looking at the numbers, Baylor has actually allowed over 20 FPPG to opposing WR1s this year. The top two – Chase Roberts and Ashtyn Hawkins – both scored over 30 fantasy points against the Bears.
Fade – WR Theo Wease ($6,300) I simply do not understand the infatuation between Wease and the DraftKings algorithms. It’s almost tilting to think about why in the hell Wease is priced this highly. Fourth in targets, fifth on the team in routes run and played all of 24 offensive snaps against Iowa State. It makes zero sense, and that’s why he’ll be a slate-breaker now (not really).
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Eric Gray ($6,900) Because of his pricing and the surplus of RB options on the slate, Gray will see very little ownership on Saturday. Still managed a productive day against what was previously the best rush defense in the Big 12 last weekend with 101 yards and 21.5 fantasy points scored against Iowa State…all the while not being 100%. Another stiff challenge this week against the newly minted No. 1 rush defense in the conference, though OU’s offensive line is starting to road grade opponents, now 10th nationally in line yards created.
Best of the Rest – QB Dillon Gabriel ($7,800) Baylor is fourth in the Big 12 in pass defense and haven’t allowed more than a single passing touchdown in each of the last four games. Gabriel is only a game-stack option if you think this matchup gets into a shootout. I doubt it.
Injury Notes – RB Jovantae Barnes ($4,800) The 4-star freshman did not play last week and is deemed a game-time decision with a hamstring. Marcus Major would backup Gray if Barnes did not suit up.
Alabama vs. LSU
Point-Spread: Bama -13.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Bama 35 – LSU 21.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 71% rain / 2 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300) This has the feel of a Gibbs-type game with rain in the forecast and Alabama taking the bye week to work on the running game after a dismal performance vs. Mississippi State in Week 8. LSU is middle of the pack, allowing 15.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s but 80th in rush play success rate. The Tigers are far better against the pass defensively.
Fade – WR Traeshon Holden ($6,100) Posted in the CFFSite Discord in the Alabama channel was a cryptic tweet from Holden that seemed to have indicated a potential injury. Even fully healthy, Holden appears to have fallen out of favor with six targets in the last three games.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Harrell ($3,900) Played just six snaps against Mississippi State, but Nick Saban said they ramped up his reps during the bye week. His speed can be a game-changer for this offense and will be at some point in the year. Is it Saturday? The Tigers are 119th in explosiveness allowed via the pass in 2022, giving up 29 passing plays of 20 yards or more. That intrigues me with regards to Harrell.
Pivot Play – QB Bryce Young ($9,000) A 26-point projection at $9k probably means Young won’t see much ownership and this appears to be a slate where you can punt the quarterback. LSU has been just ok defending the pass, allowing just 21.5 FPPG against opposing QBs and 24th in pass play success rate, but are 91st in PFF coverage. I do like the setup here with Alabama coming off their bye week and Young having his full complement of WRs available for Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR JaCorey Brooks ($6,000) Brooks is the only trustworthy option in the passing game for Bama, with double digit fantasy points scored in four of his last five games played. And his time on the field has been increasing with every passing week. Now healthy, sophomore WR JoJo Earle ($4,300) out-snapped Kobe Prentice in the slot vs. Mississippi State by a healthy margin, finishing with 3-38-1 on four targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($7,900) I probably won’t have much exposure to Daniels on Saturday, unless I’m stacking with Bryce Young with the prediction that this game shoots out. Daniels has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country the last three weeks with back to -back 50-point fantasy performances, completing over 70% of his passes in every game during that stretch. Here comes the Alabama defense, though, with two weeks to prepare. The Tide are 15th in pass play explosiveness, 13th in pass play success rate and giving up just 15.9 FPPG to opposing QBs. I’ll reiterate that I’m only playing Daniels with Bryce Young in a game stack.
Fade – RB Josh Williams ($3,500) John Emery will be back in the lineup Friday, but I don’t think he’ll replace Williams in the starting lineup with what he’s done the last month with double digit carries in three of the last four games. Cheap pricing for a starting running back, but LSU’s running game has been far too inconsistent to play him against this front. The Tide are allowing just 12.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s and this backfield could get messy with three RBs sharing carries along with Daniels.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WRs. A bit of a jumbled mess with the LSU wide receivers. Kayshon Boutte ($5,100) and Malik Nabers ($5,700) have distinguished themselves as the top target-getters with 36% target share, but eight of the team’s 13 receiving touchdowns belong to Brian Thomas ($3,600) and Jaray Jenkins ($4,700). I’ll typically lean towards the players that see the field the most in situations like this (Nabers/Boutte), but all four are reasonably priced.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – WR Jack Bech ($3,400) and RB John Emery ($5,000) have practiced this week and are expected to play.
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If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article (Saturday Night Slate).