Kansas State vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -4.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Tex 27 – K-St 22.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($6,300) Struggled with this one in coming up with a top play for Kansas State as their strengths on offense are Texas’ strengths on the defensive side. Giddens gets the slight nod for me here as he’s been sensational the last two weeks with 56 fantasy points scored against TCU and Houston. Tough matchup against the No. 1 ranked run defense in the B12, but Giddens’ versatility keeps him in play. Third on the team in targets and receptions. Texas is allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs, so if you want to fade the K-State backfield entirely, I don’t have an issue with that either.
Fade – QBs. I thought that maybe we’d only see Will Howard this week after Avery Johnson had a costly fumble against Houston last week. But the Kansas State preview for this game mentions that Kansas State will look to feature both quarterbacks again. I can’t rationally start a quarterback in Howard that we know will be off the field for a series or three.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayce Brown ($3,900) My apologies for not mentioning the true freshman in last week’s writeup as he’s been an integral part of the K-State offense the last two weeks now, playing over 55% of the team’s offensive snaps and targeted nine times. Against Houston last week, the telecast brought up Brown’s names at multiple points as a player that K-State believes will help them down the stretch with the injuries they’ve dealt with at wideout. Three rushing attempts too as Brown was featured on a few end-arounds to utilize his speed.
Pivot Play – TE Ben Sinnott ($4,900) Quiet few weeks for Sinnott who has not been 100% healthy, as evidenced by his two targets in two games. Just one tight end this season has scored more than seven fantasy points against the Longhorns, so there’s really nothing here to suggest starting Sinnott. But this is a massive game with conference title implications and Sinnott is one of the team’s best players. That’s my argument here. The Kansas State beat writer also highlighted Sinnott as a player to watch for Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Phillip Brooks ($4,900) Team leader in every single receiving category, coming off his best performance of the year with 83 yards and a touchdown on five targets. WR1s are averaging 15.3 FPPG against the Longhorns this season and are 9th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonathon Brooks ($7,800) Is there any doubt that Texas will lean on its best player Saturday? Just a matter of how effective Brooks will be against a good Kansas State defense that is 18th in rush D success rate and giving up just 14.2 FPPG to RB1s. That said, the Wildcats have allowed over four yards per carry in each of the last five games so not impenetrable. Like what we stated with Giddens above, Brooks’ usage in the passing game of late is intriguing with 17 of his 22 receptions coming in the last three weeks.
Fade – QB Maalik Murphy ($6,300) Not impressed last week with Murphy who had multiple turnovers against BYU, and now faces a Kansas State defense that has been swarming opponents of late. 33rd in pass D success rate, allowing just 13.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Are we absolutely certain that we won’t see Arch Manning on Saturday?
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($4,100) This play is in conjunction with the Injury Notes below. Look at the last time Ja’Tavion Sanders was limited in a game. Helm had a season’s best 4-67-1 on four targets. The pricing is unfortunate here because his season-long production dictates that Helm should be $3.1k and not $4.1k.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Whittington ($4,900) In the same vein as Helm above, Whittington took a lot of Ja’Tavion Sanders’ route concepts against Oklahoma in that matchup where he was limited and resulted in season highs with 10 receptions on 10 targets.
Best of the Rest – WRs Xavier Worthy ($6,700) and Adonai Mitchell ($6,400) If Quinn Ewers was playing, we’d have more interest. The duo was targeted 15 times with two receiving touchdowns in a blowout situation, so that bodes well for potential success in a more competitive matchup. Two receivers have also scored 30 fantasy points against the Wildcats this season. Worthy was targeted 11 times against BYU, but three drops ruined his stat-line.
Injury Notes – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,700) According to the Texas beat writer, Sanders re-aggravated his ankle injury in practice and is questionable for Saturday. Last time his ankle was injured was against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry where Sanders caught just one pass on two targets and was mostly used as a decoy.
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Miss -3
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Miss 28 – A&M 25
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Ainias Smith ($5,100) This might be a lower-scoring affair with two good defenses so there isn’t much need to have exposure to this game, let alone game stack it. But there are pieces to pick and choose from, namely Smith who is just too cheap here given what he’s done the last month and a half. 70 or more receiving yards in five of the last six games.
Fade – WR Noah Thomas ($4,600) Thomas still isn’t fully recovered from the injury he suffered back in Week 2 against Miami, though he did play 44 of 72 snaps last time out against South Carolina. Thomas’ effectiveness simply hasn’t been the same since earlier in the season with just 87 receiving yards in the last five games, making him too much of a risk against a tough Ole Miss secondary.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any A&M players under $5k unless we get surprising injury news, which is not expected.
Pivot Play – WR Evan Stewart ($6,100) Seemed as though Stewart might challenge for WR1 in all of college fantasy after two weeks with 100 yards receiving in each of the first two games. Then injury set in. Stewart’s playing time hasn’t wavered, but his production has, with less than 60 yards receiving in each of the last five games. Was Week 9 a potential sign of a breakthrough? 11 targets against South Carolina.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Johnson ($6,000) Cheap enough to consider I suppose, but I’m just not a Max Johnson fan at all. The big issue here is Johnson’s offensive line that has not performed up to expectations as the Texas A&M QB has been pressured on nearly half of his throws since taking over as the starter. Ole Miss is second in sacks in the SEC. Doesn’t bode well for Johnson in an SEC road environment.
Injury Notes – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,100) Folks were MAD with Le’Veon Moss being held out against South Carolina due to a hamstring issue. Sounds as though the sophomore running back is good to go for Saturday, though. As for the matchup, SEC running backs have had success against Ole Miss with Jase McClellan, Logan Diggs and most recently Jarquez Hunter all scoring 19 fantasy points or more. Hamstring flare ups occur, though, and A&M could mix in both Amari Daniels and Reuben Owens who showed well last week.
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,900) Not the greatest of matchups for Judkins this week, but the pricing makes him a reasonable option. The Aggies are allowing just 9.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and rank No. 2 in the country in rush D success rate. Judkins’ workload has ramped up here in the last month, averaging over 20 totes a game and has surpassed the century mark in three of the last four weeks.
Fade – WR Jordan Watkins ($5,500) The senior slot receiver played 84% of snaps last week against Vanderbilt, but his effectiveness the last two games simply has not been the same as Watkins has a broken hand and been playing with a cast. Fun story came out this week about Watkins being forced by Lane Kiffin to catch passes in the hotel lobby to prove he was still able to play with the cast.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($3,800) Cheapest realistic option on the Ole Miss side, but we’ve touted the former Memphis transfer in the last two weeks and hasn’t done much of anything. Just one tight end has scored double-digit fantasy points against the Aggies this season. Prieskorn is playing over 80% of the offensive snaps during games but has just four targets in the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Tre Harris ($6,200) or Dayton Wade ($5,400) Of the 29 pass attempts last week by Ole Miss, 23 went to the trio of Harris, Wade and Watkins. While this has been a sticky Texas A&M secondary, they’ve allowed some big performances to opposing receivers with Jermaine Burton going for nearly 40 fantasy points against them, as well as Miami’s Jacolby George who had 31 fantasy points. Four of the top six highest scoring receivers to face A&M this season have been outside receivers; of which Harris and Wade both are.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaxson Dart ($7,800) 23-point projection at $7.8k keeps Dart in play, but difficult matchup against an A&M defense that is allowing just 12.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Just two QBs have scored more than 12 fantasy points against the Aggies.
Injury Notes – WR Zakhari Franklin ($4,800) Franklin does have the injury tag on DK, but those that covered the game last week saw the UTSA transfer in full pads and was warming up yet didn’t play a snap. Hasn’t been effective enough on the field even when healthy to warrant consideration against this secondary.
Arkansas vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UF -3.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: UF 26.5 – Ark 23
Weather: 73 degrees / 3% rain / 13 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB KJ Jefferson ($6,600) I’ve lost quite a bit of money this season believing that KJ Jefferson and this Arkansas offense still gives a damn. And maybe they do, maybe the issue was OC Dan Enos who the team relieved of his duties during the bye week. New OC and former Buckeye quarterback Kenny Guiton will call plays, and while there isn’t expected to be a dramatic change offensively, anything is better than Dan Enos. The notion coming out of Arkansas is that Guiton is expected to get KJ Jefferson on the move a bit more and utilize his strength rather than force him into being a pocket passer like the previous play-caller.
Fade – WR3, 4 and 5. Top heavy target share among Arkansas receivers with Andrew Armstrong and Isaac TeSlaa combining for 48% and a third of the team’s receiving touchdowns. No other receiver on the team has more than 10 catches on the season.
Bargain Bin – TE Ty Washington ($3,800) Guiton is not expected to reinvent the wheel offensively, but the tight end production we know was tied to Enos’ system. Washington is third on the team in routes run over the last three weeks, but his production has diminished since his 7-catch performance against Ole Miss in Week 6. Florida has allowed just two tight ends to score double-digit fantasy points against them in 2023.
Pivot Play – WR Andrew Armstrong ($5,800) Far and away Arkansas’ best receiver in 2023 with close to a third of the team’s receiving production and 26% of the target share. SEC receivers have been successful against this Florida secondary with four different wideouts scoring 16 fantasy points or more in conference play.
Best of the Rest – RB Rashod Dubinion ($4,900) Dubinion’s viability is tied to Rocket Sanders’ availability on Saturday. 14 carries in each of the last two games with Sanders out of the lineup and was targeted five times in the loss to Mississippi State two weeks ago. Tough time envisioning Arkansas finding much success running the football against the Florida front that is 10th in rush D success rate.
Injury Notes – RB Rocket Sanders ($4,900) I cannot imagine Rocket playing on Saturday because, what’s the point with Arkansas’ season in the dumpster, but the senior running back did return to practice and there’s optimism that he could be available.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Eugene Wilson III ($5,300) Pricing gives Wilson the edge over Ricky Pearsall here for me as Florida’s top play. Absolute star in the making, if not one already. The 5-star freshman caught all 11 of his targets for 78 yards and a touchdown against one of the best defenses in the country. Wilson has now been targets 29 times alone in the last three games with an insane 90% catch rate. Supremely talented.
Fade – QB Graham Mertz ($7,200) Kudos to Mertz who has revived his college career in Gainesville, now throwing for 230 yards or more in each of the last five games. $6.2k and I’d consider Mertz here, but there’s better QB options around his pricing that I’m ok with fading. Arkansas is allowing just 17.2 FPPG to QB1s this season and the only quarterbacks to hit 20 fantasy points or more have been dual threats. With Florida being a touchdown favorite, I think the Gators will be balanced on offense between the run and pass.
Bargain Bin – WR Kahleil Jackson ($3,800) Caleb Douglas remains off the depth chart, so Jackson will get another start on Saturday and has run the third most routes among Florida receivers over the last month. At least four targets in each of the last four games.
Pivot Play – WR Ricky Pearsall ($7,100) Everyone interested in a Florida receiver on Saturday will be on Wilson. And for good reason, but Pearsall is still the team’s WR1 with a commanding 26% target share and back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances. The question here for me is…can we stack the Florida wideouts together? That’s dependent on the Arkansas offense and how they perform. Might want to have KJ Jefferson on the other side if rolling both Florida receivers.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Arkansas’ run defense has been strong in 2023, ranking 22nd in rush D success rate, 26th in EPA per play and just 13.6 FPPG to RB1s. If the Razorbacks have quit on Sam Pittman, then statistics go out the window. RB Montrell Johnson ($6,600) has a six-point edge in projections as he’s surprisingly been the better of the two options. Johnson having 15 more targets than RB Trevor Etienne ($5,300) was not expected by anyone. Arkansas hasn’t given up much production to tight ends this season, but TE Arlis Boardingham ($4,400) has been a major factor with four touchdowns in the last five games and 15 targets over the last three weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: ND -3.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: ND 24 – Clem 20.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($7,100) Estime has been rolling the last two games with over 200 rushing yards and five TDs, albeit against defenses that have essentially quit this season in Pittsburgh and USC. Is Clemson all that different, now having lost two straight? The Tigers do still rank 13th in rush D success rate and give up just 12.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s so this isn’t a gimme matchup. But I suspect ND will ride their horse on the road Saturday.
Fade – WR Jayden Thomas ($4,300) I’m probably staying far, far away from any Notre Dame pass-catching options, but Thomas is the highest priced and coming off a performance against Pittsburgh last week where he ran just seven routes. He’s been replaced in the starting lineup by better options.
Bargain Bin – TE Holden Staes ($4,100) This is not a 1-for-1 replacement with Mitchell Evans who is lost for the year to injury, but Staes proved earlier in the season that he’s capable of a big performance or two. Found the end-zone in three straight games between Week’s 2-4, including a 115-yard performance against another ACC foe in NC State. He’ll see an uptick with Evans out.
Pivot Play – WR Jaden Greathouse ($3,400) Seems so long ago that Greathouse was looking like the next great impact freshman with three receiving touchdowns in the first three weeks. Next to nothing since but encouraging that Greathouse did run the most routes of any Irish player last week against Pitt. In this week’s game predictions, one of the Notre Dame experts did predict a breakout performance from Greathouse.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Hartman ($6,900) Just two quarterbacks have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Clemson this season, one of which went into overtime with Jordan Travis. For the year, Clemson is 11th in pass D success rate and giving up just 14.6 FPPG to quarterbacks. I’ll spend the extra $100 here on Darren Grainger. WR Rico Flores Jr. ($3,900) has taken the starting job away from Jayden Thomas, running the second most routes last week vs. Pitt. WR Chris Tyree ($4,100) remains the one staple for ND at receiver and has scored double-digit fantasy points in the last two games. I’d emphasize that it is not necessary AT ALL to have an ND pass-catcher in your lineup. Evans led the Irish with just 17% target share and he’s lost for the year now.
Injury Notes – TE Mitchell Evans ($5,200) Evans will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($5,500) Would garner a heavy workload this week should Will Shipley sit out after suffering a concussion against NC State last week. And this would be news to some who already thought that Mafah is the better of the two backs. Clemson’s RB3 has just 11 carries on the season, so I would imagine Mafah would garner 90% of the team’s rushing attempts on Saturday. Notre Dame allows just 12.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 14th in rush play success rate, so jamming Mafah into your lineup is not a necessity.
Fade – WR Beaux Collins ($4,800) Bet the under on Collins 50.5-yard receiving player prop which should indicate how I feel about him this week. Just one receiver has scored more than 20 fantasy points against this Notre Dame secondary in 2023. Collins does lead the team in targets (51) but has a 58% catch rate and a team-high four drops. Half of the threads right now on Clemson message boards are titled with WR names around college football with Tiger fans hoping for a revamped receiving corps in 2024.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,400) Finally. Finally! A projected top 12 fantasy tight end in the offseason, Briningstool has finally lived up to the hype in the last two weeks with 10 targets against both Miami and NC State, with over 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns. I’m surprised it took this long given the current state of the Clemson WR room. Notre Dame has held most opposing tight ends in check this season but did allow Cade Stover and Juice Vereen to score double-digit fantasy points. As we stated in the offseason, he’s the most reliable pass-catcher on the roster.
Pivot Play – WR Adam Randall ($3,200) Maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel? A routine fade for us this season, Randall was targeted four times against NC State with three receptions, running the most routes (18) in a game since September. Last ditch effort for the Clemson staff to get something out of their former 5-star recruit.
Best of the Rest – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,700) Bottom fell out last week against NC State, scoring just eight fantasy points despite tossing 51 passes. And the road doesn’t get easier against a Notre Dame defense that is giving up the third fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing QBs. I’m staying away. WR Tyler Brown ($5,500) was held in check last week with just three receptions for minimal yardage, only playing half the game as he suffered an injury. Should be fine for Saturday.
Injury Notes – RB Will Shipley ($6,100) As of Thursday, Dabo Swinney stated that Shipley was still day-to-day in concussion protocol and would need to be cleared by medicals still. Game-time decision. Hasn’t been effective enough when fully healthy to warrant much consideration against the Notre Dame front.
Ohio State vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: OSU -18.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: OSU 30.5 – RU 12
Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,900) Needs no explanation. Just a matter of if you want to come up to his $8.9k salary. Rutgers does possess a strong pass defense, allowing just 13.9 FPPG to WR1s and 4th in EPA per pass play. But we know better that defensive statistics mean nothing when analyzing Marvin Harrison Jr.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($4,600) Those that have been reading these writeups all year know the deal by now. Fleming saw just 53% of the snaps against Wisconsin last week, and he’d be downgraded further if Emeka Egbuka is in the lineup.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($3,800) Ran the second most routes among Ohio State receivers last week but resulted in just one catch on two targets. HC Ryan Day continues to praise the 5-star freshman, saying they’re going to try and continue to build up his reps with each passing week. His value is next to none if Egbuka plays.
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($6,500) Debated as to who the top play would be between Henderson and Harrison Jr. as the pricing is very attractive here for the Ohio State RB1. 24 rushing attempts in his return to the field last weekend, and now there’s less ambiguity in the Buckeye backfield with Miyan Williams now out for the season. While Rutgers is only allowing 11.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s in 2023, the Knights also rank 115th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – TE Cade Stover ($4,600) Nothing changed with Stover’s playing time last week that resulted in him getting shut out of the box score. Just the way the cookie crumbles some weeks. Rutgers has allowed just one tight end to score double-digit fantasy points against them in 2023.
Injury Notes – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,800) Egbuka was suited up against Wisconsin last week, in what was a more competitive matchup than this game is expected to be and did not record a single snap. Can’t justify rostering him at this point, and Ohio State isn’t to be trusted with injuries moving forward as this is looking like a Jaxon Smith-Njigba like situation from last year.
Rutgers:
Just one player is projected to score more than eight fantasy points in this matchup, and it’s a quarterback that’s failed to throw more than 200 yards in a game all season. Ohio State is in the top 15 nationally in fewest points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and receivers in 2023.
Army vs. Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -17.5
O/U Total: 31.5
Implied Score: AF 24.5 – Army 7
Weather: 61 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Army:
The lowest implied total of the slate and a triple-option team means minimal interest. True freshman FB Kanye Udoh ($3,600) has taken over the Army backfield, now with 300 rushing yards over the last three weeks. Hasn’t found the end-zone and won’t catch any passes in the triple-option, so his fantasy output is a bit limited, but 18 carries a game over that span is attractive. Air Force has the No. 1 rush defense in the Mountain West.
Air Force:
Not playing a triple-option quarterback on a Main Slate. WR Dane Kinamon ($3,900) did catch a 94-yard touchdown against another academy earlier this year in the 17-6 win over Navy, but Air Force throws the football less than any team in college football. The only pieces truly worth considering here are FB Emmanuel Michel ($6,400) and SB John Lee Eldridge ($4,900). Michel has 20 or more carries in five of the last six games, while JLE is averaging close to nine yards per carry and capable of breaking off an explosive run at any moment. As for the matchup with Army, the Black Knights rank 119th in rush D success rate and allowing 19.3 FPPG to RB1s. So yes, we’re interested in the Air Force backfield on Saturday.
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: FSU -21.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: FSU 35.5 – Pitt 14.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 8% rain / 15 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan Travis ($9,000) Heisman watch is on for Travis, and this is yet another opportunity to pad some stats as he did against Wake Forest last week. Don’t discount the notion that coaches will look to get their players to the forefront of the Heisman conversation. Unless Florida State is playing Georgia or Michigan, which they might if this season plays out the way it should, Travis is matchup-proof.
Fade – WRs Not Named Keon Coleman. We’ll offer up a cheap WR suggestion below, but truthfully, Florida State doesn’t have a worthwhile receiver on the roster to start that isn’t Keon Coleman or Johnny Wilson. The Seminoles will need to hit the portal hard this offseason to find replacements as I don’t believe they’re on the team currently. 41% target share between Coleman/Wilson, and if you limit that to just FSU receivers, that number spikes to 70%.
Bargain Bin – WR Kentron Poitier ($3,200) If Johnny Wilson is in the lineup, Poitier is excluded immediately from contention. And he probably should be anyways after catching just one pass on four targets in his most extended action of the season due to injuries within the WR group. But Poitier did get targets and ran the second most routes of any receiver not named Keon Coleman, so he has to be in the conversation at this pricing.
Pivot Play – RB Trey Benson ($6,800) One of the more enigmatic players in college fantasy this season, Benson burst out in a big way last week with 155 total yards and two touchdowns, including an 80-yard reception. The rushing volume continues to frustrate, though, as Benson has not surpassed 15 rushing attempts once in 2023. Pitt is allowing 24 FPPG to RB1s this season with five different running backs scoring 20 fantasy points or more in their matchups.
Best of the Rest – TE Jaheim Bell ($5,000) Almost considered putting Bell in the fade category, because unless you’re Brock Bowers, $5k is too much for a tight end. But if Florida State is without multiple WRs again on Saturday, Bell is still in play for me. Pitt is allowing 8.2 FPPG to opposing tight ends with three players scoring 11 or more fantasy points in their matchup with the Panthers. 20 combined targets in the last three games for Bell who has been the secondary option behind Keon Coleman in the passing game.
Injury Notes – WR Johnny Wilson ($6,000) Have not seen any updates on Wilson or the other injured Florida State receivers outside of them being able to get some light practice work in on Sunday evening.
Pittsburgh:
Pitt is a dead body, and I can’t imagine they’ll have a ton of motivation to play for their head coach after comments made last week about there not being enough talented on the roster. WR Bub Means ($4,700) is the lone player of interest, now with 60 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games, but Florida State limits WR production among the best in the country. Third fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. Probably best to fade Pitt as this one will be over by halftime.
Virginia Tech vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: Lou -9.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Lou 29 – VT 19.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 3% rain / 10 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($6,300) Think I’m liking Drones as my second QB option for the slate, but obviously comes with risk on the road against a Louisville defense that has been close to dominant at home. Dual threats have given this Cardinals defense the most trouble, though, with Haynes King and Thomas Castellanos combining for over 60 fantasy points and 100 rushing yards against Louisville. A legitimate dual threat at $6.3k is worth considering.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($4,500) Thomas does enter the conversation if Bhayshul Tuten is limited or out on Saturday, but this is a bad matchup for running backs. Louisville is allowing just 11.9 FPPG to RB1s this season, and the highest scoring running back – Indiana’s Jaylin Lucas – did it all in the receiving game. Louisville ranks No. 1 nationally in EPA per run play defensively.
Bargain Bin – WR Stephen Gosnell ($4,100) Gosnell runs a lot of routes, is the best compliment we can give right now. Did have a productive game against Wake Forest with 6-75-0 on nine targets but hasn’t contributed much else. Fifth on the team in targets (25) despite being second in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,600) Slot receivers have found the most success against this Louisville secondary this year, in particular safety Cam’Ron Kelly who has allowed 19 receptions on 23 targets. Boston College slot receivers combined for 43 points in their matchup earlier in the year. Lane has had 50 or more receiving yards in all but one game.
Best of the Rest – WR Da’Quan Felton ($5,500) Breakout performance from Felton last week with 80 receiving yards and two scores on eight targets. Felton does lead the team in routes run but is not a reliable option most weeks with a 43.5% catch rate and three drops.
Injury Notes – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($6,000) Tuten was wearing a non-contact jersey in practice as of Wednesday after suffering an injury against Syracuse but seems to be mostly precautionary. Still one to monitor.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Jawhar Jordan ($6,700) First time this year that Jamari Thrash has not been Louisville’s top play. Just can’t deny what Jordan did last week after entering the contest as questionable and rushing for a career-high 163 yards and two scores against Duke. The Virginia Tech rush defense has gotten MUCH better as the season’s gone along, holding three of the last four opponents to under 40 yards rushing which is eye-opening. The lone team to go over that mark in that four-game stretch – Florida State who rushed for 282 yards behind Trey Benson.
Fade – QB Jack Plummer ($6,500) I actually did bet over on Plummer’s player prop at 217.5 passing yards but would not touch him on this slate with a bad matchup. Just one quarterback all season has scored more than 20 fantasy points this season against the Hokies in Rutgers’ QB Gavin Wimsatt who threw for just 46 yards in that matchup.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any Louisville players outside of the Big 3, and really just the Big 2 of Jordan and Thrash.
Pivot Play – WR Jamari Thrash ($6,600) The quote from Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles the movie comes to mind right now when Michaelangelo says “yea, a little too quiet.” After exploding onto the scene the first month of the season, Thrash has found the end-zone just once in the last four games. Targets are still consistent, averaging just over 10 per game in that stretch. The trouble here is the Virginia Tech secondary which has been near lights out this season, allowing the second fewest fantasy points in the country to receivers. That shouldn’t impact Thrash’s volume on Saturday but might want to limit exposure as a result.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Jamari Thrash has 28 more receptions than the next closest Louisville receiver and nearly 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Jawhar Jordan has 48% of the backfield market share. I’m sure there will be another Louisville player that scores a touchdown on Saturday, but the Cardinals’ offense is driven by Jordan and Thrash.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OU -5.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: OU 33.5 – OSU 28
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($8,900) Off week against Kansas for Gabriel and he’s admitted as such, but 20 MPH winds in Lawrence did not help his cause either. We’re banking on a rebound here from a motivated Gabriel (based off media quotes) in what should be a shootout at Bedlam. Pedestrian Oklahoma State secondary that is 67th in pass D success rate and allowing 21 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Four of the five B12 quarterbacks Oklahoma State has faced this season have scored 23 fantasy points or more.
Fade – Backup WRs. Just three targets went to non-starting Oklahoma wide receivers last week with the trio of Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson and Drake Stoops playing 72 of the team’s 80 offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering anyone under $5k unless we get word Tawee Walker or Marcus Major are out.
Pivot Play – WR Nic Anderson ($5,600) Folks lost money in DFS, CFF and college player props last week because of the true freshman who caught just one pass despite playing over 90% of the offensive snaps. Great chance at redemption this week against an Oklahoma State secondary that’s allowed 18 or more fantasy points to six different receivers this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Drake Stoops ($5,900) We hit on how much success receivers have had against Oklahoma State this season above. Dig a little deeper and you can see that the three highest-scoring wideouts have all been slot receivers in Jaylin Noel, Caullin Lacy and Daniel Jackson. Stoops had a big day last year in this matchup with 89 yards and a score. WR Jalil Farooq ($5,700) has been a bust in college fantasy this season but is still on the field a ton as we alluded to above and is getting work in the OU backfield with 11 carries in the last three games.
Injury Notes – RBs Story of the season for OU running backs that one of the quartette was not listed on the team depth chart. This time it was RB Marcus Major ($5,300) who did not play with a shoulder injury. To make matters more complex, RB Tawee Walker ($5,800) is being deemed a game-time decision after injuring his ankle in the second half vs. Kansas. RB Gavin Sawchuk ($4,400) should play on Saturday, but he’s been limited by lingering foot and hamstring injuries throughout 2023, while RB Jovantae Barnes’ ($4,300) availability per HC Brent Venables will be a “week-to-week” ordeal. And now I have a headache.
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($7,200) I don’t see how you can NOT have Ollie Gordon in your lineup given his performances over the last month and a half. The sophomore running back is now RB2 behind Ashton Jeanty in all of college football in fantasy points scored with 530 rushing yards in the last two weeks alone. The question now becomes is Ollie Gordon matchup-proof as the Oklahoma run defense ranks inside the top 20 in most analytical categories. 39 fantasy points combined from the Kansas running backs last week doesn’t suggest dominant run defense, though.
Fade – Depth Players. Cop-out answer here, but essentially all of the Oklahoma State starters are in play with their pricing. Ollie Gordon is dominating the touch counts in the Cowboys’ backfield so we don’t need to worry about the RB2 here. The starting trio of receivers all played 74% or more of the team’s offensive snaps against Cincinnati last week. Next closest receiver ran just five routes during the game.
Bargain Bin – WR Leon Johnson III ($4,500) With Jaden Bray unavailable, Leon Johnson stepped into the starting lineup and had a career day (better than any Jaden Bray has had in his career) with 149 yards and five receptions on 11 targets.
Pivot Play – WR Rashod Owens ($4,700) or WR Brennan Presley ($5,900) Unfortunately no correlation as if outside or slot receivers find the most success against the Sooners this season but do like the pricing savings with Owens over Presley here. WR1s are averaging 17 FPPG against OU this season and almost nine fantasy points above their seasonal average. The Sooners are 89th in pass attempts allowed this season (expected as a 7-1 team) so a lot of garbage time numbers are accumulated, hence the high FPPG totals.
Best of the Rest – QB Alan Bowman ($6,200) I could not settle where I wanted to place Bowman in either the fade spot or pivot play, so this feels comfortable. At $6.2k with a 17-point projection, Bowman has to be considered with a high game total. But the OU secondary is the strength of the defense, ranking 18th in pass D success rate and giving up just 14.8 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – WR Jaden Bray ($4,800) No update on Bray’s status this week after missing last Saturday’s contest, but Oklahoma State writers are good about getting injury information out in the pregame. Leon Johnson III gets downgraded if Bray returns to the lineup, but I would imagine the former still gets the start after his performance a week ago.
Missouri vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -15.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UGA 35.5 – Mizzou 20
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($6,900) Not often have we considered fading Luther Burden and not sure we’re going to start, even with the matchup with the defending champs. 8th nationally in targets (82) facing a Georgia defense that ranks 103rd in the country in pass attempts per game against them. We know the gaudy defensive stats for the Bulldogs, but game script should allow for Burden to be peppered with passes in his direction. Won’t go overboard with my exposure here – it is still Georgia – but you should have a few shares in GPPs.
Fade – RB Cody Schrader ($6,200) Surprisingly, the UGA defense hasn’t been as dominant this year against the run as year’s past, ranking 12th in yards allowed per game and just 27th in rush D success rate. With that said, one running back has been able to surpass 12 fantasy points against this Dawgs defense – Kentucky’s Ray Davis – where a lot of his production came with the game out of hand. Too many RBs on the slate to consider Schrader in this matchup.
Bargain Bin – TE Brett Norfleet ($3,200) Extreme longshot, but the freshman tight end has seen an uptick in playing time over the last month. Coincidetally, the two best performances of Norfleet’s season have come against the two best defenses Missouri has faced this year with 40 receiving yards against both Kansas State and Kentucky. Will reiterate you should not play Norfleet if you can avoid, but UGA has actually struggled defending tight ends in 2023, allowing 7.7 FPPG.
Pivot Play – WR Theo Wease ($5,400) or Mookie Cooper ($5,100) Unlikely I’ll have any exposure with these two receivers. Against South Carolina, Wease, Cooper and Luther Burden were the only wideouts that were targeted in the game, all playing at least 73% of the offensive snaps. Barring injury, those three should remain on the field most of the game.
Best of the Rest – QB Brady Cook ($7,900) I count at least four QB options that I have more interest in than Cook this week at a cheaper cost, so I’ll be fading. Georgia is 5th in the county in pass D success rate and allowing just 15.3 FPPG to quarterbacks. If Cook were running more this season, I might have more interest, but his ankle injury earlier in the year seems to have limited him a bit.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Daijun Edwards ($7,300) Edwards has been sensational this year as the lead back with all the injured compiled in the Georgia backfield. Even with RB Kendall Milton ($5,400) back in the lineup seeing his most extended workload of the season, Edwards continued to rack up 95 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Florida defensive front. Missouri grades out well defending the run, ranked 20th in rush D success rate, but have allowed four running backs to score 16 or more fantasy points against them. UGA is matchup-proof at this point.
Fade – WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($5,300) We mentioned last week that McConkey seeing more playing time as he regains full health would cut into some of the other receiver’s workloads. That was the case last week with Rosemy-Jacksaint as he ran just nine routes against Florida. Neither he nor WR Rara Thomas ($5,000) will see the volume necessary to reach value at their current prices.
Bargain Bin – TE Oscar Delp ($4,400) No, Delp is not Brock Bowers, but he played almost the entirety of the game against Florida and had a spectacular 18-yard catch along the sideline. Teams have succeeded throwing to tight ends against Missouri this season with Kansas State’s Ben Sinnott scoring 24 fantasy points against the Tigers. LSU’s Mason Taylor also had a big day with 13 fantasy points and a touchdown.
Pivot Play – QB Carson Beck ($8,500) Answer me this – is there a quarterback on the slate with a higher floor than Beck this week? Not much upside given he’s a non-runner, but 18 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season and a solid 22-point projection this week. The Missouri secondary is not one to be threatened by either, allowing over 22 fantasy points per game to opposing QB1s and 64th in pass D success rate. Beck has also hit the 300-yard bonus in four of the last five as well.
Best of the Rest – RB Daijun Edwards ($7,300) Edwards has been sensational this year as the lead back with all the injured compiled in the Georgia backfield. Even with RB Kendall Milton ($5,400) back in the lineup seeing his most extended workload of the season, Edwards continued to rack up 95 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Florida defensive front. Missouri grades out well defending the run, ranked 20th in rush D success rate, but have allowed four running backs to score 16 or more fantasy points against them. UGA is matchup-proof at this point. Probably wouldn’t stack WR Dominic Lovett ($6,000) or WR Ladd McConkey ($5,800) together in a lineup, but the Florida matchup painted a clear picture in my eyes that those two will be picking up the slack with the Bowers injury with over 220 combined receiving yards on 12 targets. Beck has close to a 300-yard passing projection so one of the UGA pass-catchers will have value.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: PSU -8.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: PSU 29 – MD 20.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($5,900) There’s going to be a breakout performance at some point. We’ve regurgitated the splits between Singleton and RB Kaytron Allen ($5,600) ad nauseum this season already, so won’t do the deep dive again – just know Singleton holds the advantage in nearly every major fantasy statistic. Maryland is an average B1G run defense, ranking 47th in rush D success rate and giving up just 13.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Notable that the Terps are giving up over six fantasy points more than the seasonal average to those RB1s, though, in their respective matchups.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($7,500) This season is playing out as expected for Allar. Likely a future first-round draft pick in the NFL, but he’s not reliable fantasy asset, and that notion has been emphasized in B1G play, averaging just 16.2 FPPG in conference. Why pay $7.5k when you can save $500 and roster a dual-threat quarterback like Darren Grainger?
Bargain Bin – WR Dante Cephas ($4,300) The Kent State transfer has been a “bust” relative to expectations after coming over in the offseason but will likely get the starting nod on Saturday with Harrison Wallace being doubtful. Was third among receivers in routes run against Indiana, with two receptions on four targets. Cephas was with the first-team offense in practice on Wednesday.
Pivot Play – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($6,500) The only reliable wide receiver on the Penn State roster and a big reason why they should not be considered title contenders. 26% target share with 28 more receptions than the next closest wideout – who coincidentally will be out on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – TEs. Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren are second and third on the team, respectively, in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. Maryland only allows 5.6 FPPG to opposing TE1s but multiple B1G tight ends have scored 10 fantasy points or more against the Terps this season.
Injury Notes – WR Harrison Wallace III ($5,100) Wallace was not seen at practice on Wednesday and is unlikely to play on Saturday.
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WRs. WR roulette for the Terps as the top three options in Tai Felton, Jeshaun Jones and Kaden Prather are separated by just three targets. Prather probably gets the edge here as the team leader in touchdowns (5), and three of the top four highest-scoring receivers against Penn State this season play on the outside. Roll a dice and pick one if you’re intent on having Maryland exposure. Should be obvious, but do not stack multiple Maryland receivers in a lineup together – I doubt we see a repeat of last week’s performance against Indiana.
Fade – RB Roman Hemby ($5,700) Penn State is allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs and Hemby is in a full 50-50 split recently with Antwain Littleton. The only appeal with Hemby is his usage in the passing game with 11 receptions on 12 targets in the last two games.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($3,900) 16 targets in the last two weeks for Dyches with Maryland playing catch-up against Ohio State and Northwestern. We’ll assume the Terps will be in a similar spot this week as an 11.5-point underdog. Penn State is giving up just 4.9 FPPG to tight ends, but Dyches is a wide receiver by trade.
Pivot Play – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,200) Will have next to nothing in terms of ownership on Saturday. That’s the only argument in favor of Tagovailoa here as there are plenty of better QB options on the slate at a cheaper price. Aside from the blip last week against Indiana, where we’ll assume the Nittany Lions were still reeling over the Ohio State loss, Penn State has been dominant against the pass, ranking first nationally in pass D success rate. PSU is also allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in the country.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Likely a full-team fade here as the running game has been dreadful, the wide receivers are a guessing game, and far better quarterbacks on the slate than Baby Tua.
Injury Notes – n/a
James Madison vs. Georgia State
Point-Spread: JMU -5.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: JMU 29.5 – GSU 24
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($4,800) I know this is a main slate now, but I guess we’re just underpricing the James Madison receivers the entire season? 100+ receiving yards for the second time in three weeks for Sarratt who has also found paydirt in three of the last four games. Playing time has increased with every passing week for Sarratt who now has 27 targets in the last three games.
Fade – RBs. I like James Madison’s RBs in Kaelon Black and Ty’Son Lawton, but probably not for a main slate, and not in this matchup. So not an all-out fade but lessen your exposure. Essentially a 55-45 split backfield in favor of Black from a rushing volume standpoint, but Lawton’s 4-1 touchdown advantage is a result of his 13 red-zone carries in 2023; just eight red-zone touches for Black. Georgia State is only allowing 15.7 FPPG to RB1s this season but have allowed some big performances in conference play – Kimani Vidal (28 fpts), Rasheen Ali (38 fpts), Jalen White (19 fpts).
Bargain Bin – WR Phoenix Sproles ($3,700) Sproles has run just one less route this season than Sarratt while being targeted 39 times so he’s on the field a ton and gets plenty of passes thrown in his direction. The issue is they’re all around the LOS with a 4.6 average depth of target and 7.3 YPC average. 15 receptions in the last three games.
Pivot Play – WR Reggie Brown ($5,000) Sarratt is the JMU WR priority, but Brown is a close second. And because of their pricing, stacking the two together in a lineup is an option. Over 260 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the last two games for Brown with 24 targets in that span.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan McCloud ($8,100) The pass defense is atrocious for Georgia State. 116th in EPA per pass play and 107th in pass D success rate. With those numbers, I’m shocked to see GSU allowing just 17.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. You then look at who Georgia State has faced, and that number becomes more understandable. McCloud has been one of the most consistent fantasy QBs in the country in 2023.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – WR Robert Lewis ($6,300) This game total doesn’t warrant a full game-stack but I like coming back around with some Georgia State pieces to pair with the James Madison receivers – most notably Lewis. Why? JMU is allowing the fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers among teams playing this weekend. While drops have become an issue again this season, Lewis has slate-breaking upside as he’s displayed multiple times in 2023. Coming off a season-high 12 receptions on 17 targets in a trailing position vs. Georgia Southern last week.
Fade – WR Jacari Carter ($3,800) Carter had over 120 career receptions coming into the year after spending three seasons at Merrimack and was thought by some (me) to potentially be the team’s WR1 in 2023. While Carter has been an integral piece of the Georgia State passing game, he lost his starting spot to WR Tailique Williams ($5,200). Carter was targeted seven times against Georgia Southern last week but resulted in minimal yardage and only played 39 of the 78 offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Cadarrius Thompson ($3,100) Thompson found the end-zone on three targets last week in the loss to Georgia Southern as he’s been starting the last few weeks in place of the injured Ja’Cyais Credle. Has played over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Marcus Carroll ($7,000) Carroll is always in play because of the volume he receives each week, leading the country by a wide margin with 24.6 rush attempts per game. But if there was a week to sit him, this would be it. JMU is the No. 1 rush defense in the nation, allowing just 49 YPG on the ground and 12.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – QB Darren Grainger ($7,000) JMU grades out very well against the pass this season, ranking 23rd in pass D success rate and 49th in EPA per play. Not as dominant when looking at the fantasy points allowed with QB1s are averaging right around 17 FPPG. Here’s the reason why – JMU is always in the lead and garbage time points are occurring. The Dukes are 131st in pass attempts allowed per game in 2023 as opponents are typically in a trailing position. Not a lot to dislike here for Grainger who is a dangerous threat with his arm and legs.
Injury Notes – n/a
