***Please note there will not be a write-up for Thursday and the Saturday Late Slate is TBD.
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan
Point-Spread: WMU -10
O/U Total: 66
Weather: 36 degrees / 14% rain / 3 mph winds
WMU:
After watching the first half against Michigan in the opener, I thought Kaleb Eleby was going to have a record-setting year in 2021. While Eleby continues to play efficient football, completing 61 percent of his passes with 15 total touchdowns and just two interceptions, the gaudy numbers some expected from him have not been there. Eleby failed to throw a passing touchdown in two of the last three games. Two positives heading into tonight: (1) Eleby has a rushing touchdown in each of the last three games, and (2) Central Michigan’s secondary is one of the worst in the country, ranking 113th overall in pass yards allowed, 127th in Pass Play Explosiveness and 94th in PFF coverages grades.
At receiver, we have a concentrated target tree with Skyy Moore, Jaylen Hall and Corey Crooms who account for a whopping 76 percent of the target share for WMU so passes aren’t being directed to anyone else. Not sure what’s happening with Crooms, but he doesn’t have a single reception in the last two games with just one target. Played just six snaps in Week 7 vs. Kent State so I’m assuming some sort of injury, but played 2/3s of the game against Toledo without a single target. Hall, thought to be a breakout receiver this season in place of D’Wayne Eskridge, is starting to turn it on with five receptions in each of the last three games. We noted CMU’s propensity to give up a big play or two through the air, and that sets up perfectly for Hall who is the team’s primary deep threat, averaging 17.1 YPC with an aDOT of 17.9. After a down year as a sophomore, Moore is having a tremendous season with at least seven receptions in six of the seven games played and a team-high five TDs. Because Eleby is really only looking towards Moore and Hall of late, I think you can stack this passing game comfortably.
Don’t see a particular edge on the ground here as CMU stacks up well defensively, ranking second on the MAC allowing 134 YPG rushing and are 24th nationally in Run Success Rate. Split backfield between Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson, and our projections show minimal difference between the two. Tyler gets a slight edge as a receiver with 10 receptions on 15 targets, with a pair of TDs in the last two games. Jefferson has nine rushing TDs compared to just four for Tyler, and had at least one rushing score in every game before his streak was broken against Toledo last time out. With WMU being a 10-point favorite, I think Jefferson would be the play of the two here as the Broncos are more likely to pepper the 220-pounder with carries to salt the game away late.
CMU:
Similar situation to WMU at receiver where if the Chips are throwing the ball, its going in one of three directions – Kalil Pimpleton, JaCorey Sullivan or Dallas Dixon. The only slight difference is Central Michigan’s utilization of the tight end position, in that they actually use it in the passing game, with Joel Wilson who sits third on the team with 20 receptions on 31 targets. Much like Skyy Moore, Pimpleton is having a rebound season after a down year in 2020, with 39-608-2, and averaging right around nine targets per game which is on pace to match his 2019 numbers. Found the end-zone in two of the last three games. Sullivan missed Week’s 6 and 7, but has arguably been the team’s best receiver this season with 31 receptions on 45 targets, and has found paydirt in all six games played. Dixon’s production has fallen off the last three weeks, but is second on the team with six touchdowns and a 14.5 aDOT.
Three arguments working in favor of Daniel Richardson this week. (1) Positive game script. (2) Even without the game script, CMU loves to throw the ball, averaging 39.6 att/g which is 12th in the nation, and (3) the Chips are 15th in the country in plays per minute. The argument against Richardson – Western Michigan is 14th in Pass Play Success Rate and have held opponents to under 155 passing yards in three out of the last five games. Opposing QB1s have found success against this Broncos defense still, averaging 25.6 FPPG for the year and 28 FPPG over the last three games.
Lew Nichols is the workhorse that we expected him to be following the Kobe Lewis injury in the preseason, now ninth in the country in rushing and 10th in att/g at 20.8. After a slow start in the non-conference, Nichols is beginning to find his stride with three-straight 100-yard rushing performances, and has been utilized more as a pass-catcher of late with 13 receptions on 15 targets in the last two games. Nichols has been targeted at least four times in each of the last six contests. The matchup for him against WMU? Average. The Broncos are allowing just 11.8 FPPG to opposing running backs this season and are No. 1 in the MAC, giving up just 133 YPG. Looking a bit deeper though, six of the nine rushing TDs allowed this season have come in the last four games and WMU is only 72nd in Rush Play Success Rate. While not the greatest of matchups, I still think you spend up for Nichols here given his volume both as a runner and receiver (better option on DK with full-point PPR).
Northern Illinois @ Kent State
Point-Spread: Kent -3.5
O/U Total: 68
Weather: 36 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
NIU:
Based on the NIU depth chart this week, I think we can lock in Jay Ducker here as one of the RB options. Harrison Waylee is still nowhere to be found and Antario Brown is listed in an OR situation, sitting on the third line of the DC. Head coach Thomas Hammock did mention two weeks ago that Brown was close to returning – I’m pretty sure he even said Brown was expected back – so we’ll have to do a double-check beforehand just to be sure here. Tough not to start Ducker regardless here if you’re the NIU staff based on what he’s done the last two weeks with over 400 rushing yards. The Huskies have one of the best rushing attacks in the country (yes, I said it), averaging over 232 YPG, ranked 18th in Line Yards and 43rd in Rush Play Success Rate. Have to assume the Huskies will attempt to keep that potent Kent State offense on the sidelines with Ducker and that running game as they are 10th in the country in time of possession.
At receiver, it’s been a two-man show the last two weeks with Tyrice Richie and Trayvon Rudolph who’ve combined for 24 of the 32 targets that have gone to NIU receivers in that span. WR3 Cole Tucker announced via his Twitter page that he will return to the lineup for the first time since Week 4. With that news, I think we can downgrade Messiah Travis who did start in his place, and had 10 targets in the last three weeks. While NIU is No. 5 in the country in run play percentage, I think we have to consider at least one receiver here for the Huskies given they are 3.5-point dogs on the road, and Richie is inexpensive at $5,100 for someone that projects over 16 fantasy points this week. Starting tight end Miles Joiner has missed much of the season, but played 54 of 79 snaps against Central Michigan in Week 8 with two receptions on two targets. Not saying start Joiner, but this is a player with five receiving touchdowns in two seasons with Youngstown State.
NIU fans are conflicted with quarterback Rocky Lombardi. Can’t complain too much about your starting quarterback who has you in first place in the MAC West and has been a significant upgrade over last year’s situation. The former Michigan State transfer has shown surprising athleticism, averaging 5.87 YPC on 55 rushing attempts and five TDs on the ground, and has extended drives with his willingness to throw his body around recklessly despite being QB1. As a passer, he continues to make some questionable decisions that plagued him with the Spartans, completing just 58 percent of his throws and six interceptions. Coming off his best performance of the season against Central Michigan with 300+ passing yards and three touchdowns. Projections really like Lombardi this week for his salary at $6,900, against a Kent State team that is allowing 27.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s and are 103rd in Pass Play PPA.
Kent State:
Don’t really see any way in which we can fade Dustin Crum here. Game total of 66 means we should see a shootout. NIU is allowing 25.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are ninth in the MAC in pass defense, giving up over 234 YPC. Projection is exactly what we want at 29.5 fantasy points this week. Crum’s production through the air is down from last year, but is still connecting on 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,770 yards and nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. Crum also sits third on the team in rushing with 368 yards and six scores, averaging more attempts per game on the ground than he did last year, and tied a season-high with 93 yards on 17 carries vs. Ohio. Has topped double-digit attempts in seven of the eight games played this year.
We must roster at least one Kent State running back in our lineups tomorrow. NIU is allowing 22.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, are allowing well over five yards a carry on the ground and are 119th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. The Huskies are in the green in every advanced analytical category focusing on rush defense, meaning the Flashes should be able to dominate on the ground. Kent State is also 10th in Line Yards, 7th in Rush Play PPA and 14th in Rush Play Success Rate. Whether its Marquez Cooper or Xavier Williams who have essentially split carries the last two games, someone should find success.
I hope this suggestion isn’t getting “too cute” but I think Keshunn Abram could be a decent roster selection here, despite being third on the team in targets. While NIU is fifth in the conference in pass efficiency, the Huskies have been vulnerable to the big play downfield, allowing 11 completions of 40 yards or more. Abram is amongst the team leaders with a 16.3 aDOT. We know of what to expect out of Dante Cephas at this point, and his projection of 18.3 fantasy points means he’s always in play. Syracuse transfer Nykeim Johnson has been a welcomed addition with 36 receptions on 50 targets – he’s a better option on DK than FD with the scoring format. Ja’Shaun Poke has been one of the biggest busts this season in college fantasy, but despite his 17 total targets this season, he is on the field more than 60 percent of the time. Extreme dart throw at $3,100.
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