West Virginia vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -12.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: OU 36 – WVU 23.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($8,500) While just an average passer, Greene has been a valuable fantasy asset over the last month and a half, now averaging 25.1 FPPG on the season. Vegas line and OU’s strength on defense in limiting rushing yards are reasons we’re probably avoiding CJ Donaldson on the slate and possibly taking our shot with West Virginia’s dual threat quarterback. The Sooners do rank 25th in pass D success rate and are only allowing about 15 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but when you give up 334 passing yards in a loss to Alan Bowman, there might be some leaks on the back end of the defense. Also fair to question OU’s motivation coming into this matchup after essentially being eliminated from the College Football Playoff conversation.
Fade – RB Justin Johnson Jr. ($4,300) See below.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaheim White ($3,800) The 4-star freshman has asserted himself as West Virginia’s RB2 in the last two games with 232 rushing yards. Think White could be a popular punt play, in which I might say fade the freshman in this scenario. White’s increased usage the last two weeks had a lot to do with WVU being up by double-digits against BYU and UCF. Not sure that happens on the road vs. the Sooners.
Pivot Play – Pass Catchers. Balanced effort among the West Virginia receivers with no target hog, making it difficult to pinpoint any potential options. WR Devin Carter ($5,000) leads the team in receiver yards despite missing a game, and his move to the slot has proved beneficial with 14 of his 23 catches in the last four games. TE Kole Taylor (4,200) leads the team in targets (42) and routes run this season, though Oklahoma has allowed just one tight end to score double-digit fantasy points this season. WR Preston Fox ($4,000) and 6-foot-3 freshman WR Traylon Ray ($3,000) are the two starters along with Carter should Hudson Clement miss another game.
Best of the Rest – RB CJ Donaldson ($6,100) I contemplated Donaldson in the fade section of this writeup, but difficult to completely dismiss a player that has found the end-zone in all but one game this season. And we’ve actually seen some explosive runs over the last two games as Donaldson has averaged over seven yards a pop. The downside is the OU defense that limited Ollie Gordon to 28 fantasy points last week. And yes, that is a tremendous effort by the Sooners’ front. On the year, Oklahoma is giving up just 13 FPPG to RB1s.
Injury Notes – WR Hudson Clement ($4,600) Questionable for Saturday but was dressed for last week’s game against BYU. This isn’t a prolific enough of a pass offense to even consider a questionable receiver.
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,200) Gabriel gets top billing for the Sooners because it’s all speculation and guessing games as to which WR and RB are the flavor of the week for this coaching staff. At least with Gabriel, we know we have a solid base to our lineup. West Virginia is solid on the backend, ranking 32nd in EPA per pass play defensively and 30th in pass D success rate, but has given up plenty of fantasy points, allowing 20.3 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Jovantae Barnes ($4,100) One carry, one fumble last week for Barnes, though to be fair I don’t believe it was his fault as the direct snap was not supposed to go to him. Barnes has burned his redshirt so that is off the table but seems to be at best the third option in the RB rotation.
Bargain Bin – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($4,200) As 12.5-point favorites, I think we must take a chance in some lineups on an Oklahoma running back. But this is essentially playing a plinko chip on the Price is Right with no idea where the chip lands. In such cases, I lean towards talent above all and Sawchuk is the best of the bunch in the OU backfield, finding the end-zone in each of the last three games. Outside of allowing 52 fantasy points to Ollie Gordon, West Virginia has yet to allow a running back to surpass 17 fantasy points in a game.
Pivot Play – RB Tawee Walker ($5,500) With that said above, would any of us be surprised if Walker gets the starting nod on Saturday as the coaching staff seems to have trust in the junior back. He’s got four rushing TDs in the last three weeks and is the only OU back to have gotten 20 carries in a game this season. FWIW – Marcus Major did not see a carry last week but was suspended for the first half against OSU.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Drake Stoops was the hot hand against OSU with 12-134-1 on 14 targets. Does that mean he’s the WR1 moving forward? That’s not how this passing game operates. Stoops, Jalil Farooq and Nic Anderson all play relatively equal snaps as Oklahoma does not rotate at receiver in competitive matchups which this should be. The Mountaineers give up the 20th most fantasy points to receivers in college football this season, so we need to roster someone here. Three highest scoring WRs this season have all been boundary receivers, so I tend to lean towards Anderson or Farooq here. But any one of the three are an option.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. TCU
Point-Spread: Tex -12.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tex 33.5 – TCU 21
Weather: 56 degrees / 6% rain / 7 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonathon Brooks ($7,700) Kid in a candy store when looking at this slate trying to choose a running back – there are so many choices and Brooks might be the best of the bunch. Wasn’t a dominant fantasy performance last week from Brooks, but the workload has remained constant since about Week 3 with 20+ touches a game. TCU is allowing 19.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($4,700) 50 or fewer receiving yards in all but one game this season – the Red River Rivalry where Ja’Tavion Sanders was not healthy. He’s healthy this week. This TCU secondary does not allow many points either to opposing wide receivers (37.2).
Bargain Bin – RB CJ Baxter ($4,100) Baxter is the clear RB2 here but can envision the staff trying to ramp up his touches as he gains more experience through his freshman season. That happened last week against Kansas State with 90 rushing yards and a score on 10 carries, though it should be noted that Brooks was lingering at times, even coming out of the tunnel after the team following half time.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,100) I will personally not be playing Ewers in this spot as there are a few cheaper quarterbacks with higher projections that I’ll be rostering instead, plus my general rule about players coming back from injury. TCU is giving up just 17.8 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. If playing Ewers, I think you must have TCU exposure in the lineup as well, because I can see Texas leaning on the two stud backs if the Longhorns get up by a few scores.
Best of the Rest – WRs. TCU is 82nd in yards allowed per game through the air and 73rd in EPA per pass play, so there will be opportunities for both Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. Quinn Ewers returning will be a welcomed sight for Worthy who had caught just nine passes on his last 26 targets. The duo combined for 25 targets a week ago vs. Kansas State.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – TE Jared Wiley ($3,800) Not to dismiss Wiley, but this selection as TCU’s top play displays just how little interest we have on the TCU side this week. QB and RB are complete fades for us, and the Horned Frogs throw to 20 different pass-catchers in a given week. With that said, Wiley has a team high four receiving touchdowns and ranks second in routes run, receptions (26) and third in targets (41). Texas has allowed multiple tight ends to score double-digit fantasy points this season.
Fade – QB Josh Hoover ($7,300) Don’t get the good vibes from the TCU side heading into this matchup after reading game previews. Texas ranks 20th in pass D success rate, first in the conference in sacks and giving up just 16.4 FPPG to quarterbacks. If that wasn’t enough, there is a distinct possibility we see Chandler Morris at some point too as he was suited and warming up last week against Texas Tech.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaylon Robinson ($4,500) We’ll dive into some of the stats below on receivers facing Texas this season. The former UCF transfer ran a team high 52 routes last week against Texas Tech and 18 of his season-long 36 targets have come in the last two games.
Pivot Play – WR Savion Williams ($5,900) Williams has been TCU’s best receiver for the last month or so, with 67% of his targets coming in that span with two receiving touchdowns. For as good as the Texas defense grades out, they’ve allowed the 48th most fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers this season. Four highest scoring wideouts to face the Longhorns have all come in the last two games as well. Williams, John Paul Richardson ($6,300) or Jaylon Robinson are the priorities.
Best of the Rest – RB Emani Bailey ($7,100) Bailey has been awesome this season after most (me) didn’t even think he would be the team’s RB1 coming into the year. There are just too many good RB options at cheaper prices to even consider Bailey in this spot with a terrible matchup. Texas is 6th in the country in rush D success rate, allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points in the country to RBs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -14.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: LSU 40.5 – UF 26
Weather: 64 degrees / 56% rain / 7 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Eugene Wilson ($6,300) Star in the making, if not already one. The 5-star freshman has been outstanding the last month of the season with 33 receptions and four touchdowns in the last four games with an 88.2% catch rate. Neither Wilson or fellow receiver WR Ricky Pearsall ($6,700) are all that expensive, so I don’t mind stacking the two together in a lineup for what should one of the higher scoring games of the weekend. The LSU secondary has been cooked at times by opposing wide receivers, with seven wideouts scoring 17 or more fantasy points against the Tigers this season. The duo combined for 18 targets and three scores last week in a similar game script vs. Arkansas.
Fade – RBs. Here’s where I stand on the Florida RB situation. Neither Montrell Johnson nor Trevor Etienne are a full fade as the Gators should find success against an LSU defense that is 108th in rush D success rate. But is either player going to win you a GPP with a 50-50 split in the backfield? No upside to this situation unless Florida dominates (unlikely) or someone gets injured.
Bargain Bin – WR Kahleil Jackson ($3,700) or TE Arlis Boardingham ($4,100) Arguments to be made for both players. Jackson plays the entirety of the game on offense as Florida doesn’t rotate receivers and was targeted eight times vs. Arkansas. Boardingham will be one of the better tight ends in the country this time next year, as he’s been targeted seven times in three of the last four games. LSU allows the second most fantasy points (11.0) to TE1s in the country behind only Michigan State.
Pivot Play – QB Graham Mertz ($7,100) High game total facing a terrible secondary – Mertz is absolutely in play. LSU allows 24.1 FPPG to quarterbacks and 98th in pass D success rate. I’ll play Mertz in all types of lineup combinations, pairing him with his WRs or stacking this potential shootout.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Listed all of the primary Florida contributors above.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($10,300) It was always likely that Daniels would play Saturday, in my opinion at least, as he’s still with an outside shot at winning the Heisman despite losing last week to Alabama. Wasn’t his fault that the defense allowed Jalen Milroe to run all over the field. How much Daniels runs this week will be the big question, and the hope is that he’ll have the same effectiveness after seeing what KJ Jefferson did to the Gators on the ground a week ago.
Fade – n/a. All the major contributors listed are potential options.
Bargain Bin – RB Josh Williams ($3,800) Williams likely gets the start in place of the injured Logan Diggs, with some of John Emery Jr. ($4,600) mixed in. Williams had a 4-1 carry advantage last week against the Tide while also finding the end-zone. I’d hoped that stud freshman RB Kaleb Jackson ($3,000) would see additional work, and maybe still could as he’s played more than four games this season so sitting him for a redshirt is out of the question. Beat writer for The Advocate only listed Williams and Emery Jr. as the replacements in the game previous, though.
Pivot Play – WR Kyren Lacy ($4,800) No starting running back and a potentially limited Jayden Daniels (at least on the ground) could lead to an aerial assault on Saturday night. LSU doesn’t rotate much beyond the top three receivers, and Lacy has caught a touchdown now in two of the last three games.
Best of the Rest – WRs Malik Nabers ($9,100) and / or Brian Thomas Jr. ($7,700) We know the drill by now here. Nabers has been quite literally unstoppable since the opening week of the season with six 100-yard receiving performances and 10 touchdowns. Thomas is the curious case as he’s looked more like the 2022 version in the last few weeks. Amount of playing time hasn’t changed so he remains an option as well. Beat writers for LSU have predicted big games for both players, but the Florida secondary hasn’t allow much via the way of fantasy points this season. Just two receivers scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Gators.
Injury Notes – RB Logan Diggs ($6,200) Diggs was in a non-contact jersey all week in practice and downgraded to doubtful on Thursday.
Mississippi vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -10.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UGA 34.5 – Miss 24
Weather: 54 degrees / 54% rain / 8 mph winds
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – WR Tre Harris ($6,600) Harris is the success story of G5 transfers succeeding at the P5 level (horror story below). Team highs in receptions, targets, and touchdowns (7) this season for the former Louisiana Tech transfer who was targeted a season-high 14 times last week against A&M. With Zakhari Franklin benched and a somewhat limited Jordan Watkins, expect Ole Miss to force feed their best player on the outside. Trouble is the Georgia secondary that is 11th in pass D success rate and giving up just 13.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Nobody will be on Tre Harris tonight, which makes him a strong GPP consideration.
Fade – WR Zakhari Franklin ($4,600) Franklin doesn’t have the injury tag on DraftKings but is questionable for Saturday night. Ole Miss beat writer stated he does think Franklin ultimately suits up for this week’s matchup but has seen a significant decline in playing time and didn’t see the field in either of the last two games. Remember when Franklin was a Top 10 fantasy receiver? Distant memory and test case for those G5 receivers about to hit the portal once the season concludes.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($3,600) The Ole Miss beat writer loves himself some Caden Prieskorn. He’ll give seven bold predictions each week, and I think the last 4-5 games he’s projected a massive performance from the former Memphis transfer. And if you look at the box scores, he’s been wrong every single time, lol. 100 yards and a touchdown was his bold prediction for Prieskorn this week. That won’t happen, but dare to dream kids.
Pivot Play – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,700) Is there a case to be made for Judkins in this spot? Difficult to play the star sophomore as the options in his price range have far better matchups. Not to mention Ole Miss will be without one of its starting offensive linemen tonight. While not the dominant group of year’s past, the Dawgs are still getting in done in the front seven, giving up just 11 FPPG to RB1s. Volume and ownership are the biggest arguments in favor of Judkins. 20+ carries on average over the last five games, finding the end-zone six times in that span.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Watkins ($5,400) Credit to Watkins who has played through a hand injury with a cast, yet still finding ways to be effective with 47 yards and a touchdown last week against A&M. While his snap counts haven’t changed, you will notice his targets have declined slightly, though, since the injury occurred. WR Dayton Wade ($5,200) is a Georgia native playing in front of family this week, and we love that narrative. Second on the team in targets (53) and receptions (40), and most routes run of any Ole Miss receiver. Not playing QB Jaxson Dart ($7,600) outside of a game stack with Georgia pieces on the other side. The Bulldogs allowed 15.5 FPPG to quarterbacks and wet/chilly conditions are expected.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – WR Ladd McConkey ($5,800) 220 receiving yards and 13 receptions on 15 targets in the last two games while Brock Bowers has been out with injury, which we expect to remain the case on Saturday. Five different receivers have scored 18 or more fantasy points against the Rebels this season.
Fade – WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($5,000) Same situation again last week that has been a reoccurring theme for MRJ. Just 10 routes run against Missouri last Saturday – fifth most among UGA receivers as he’s fallen behind both Rara Thoams and Ladd McConkey on the depth chart. Still gets rotational reps that could produce against a leaky secondary, but not at this pricing.
Bargain Bin – TE Oscar Delp ($4,100) Bowers playing would obviously downgrade Delp, but the sophomore tight end did find the end-zone last week on four targets against Missouri. Good matchup again this Saturday against an Ole Miss secondary that has allowed four tight ends to score 11 fantasy points or more this season. Arkansas’ Ty Washington had a career-high 28 fantasy points in his matchup with the Rebels.
Pivot Play – QB Carson Beck ($8,400) Said it last week and the point remains – Carson Beck won’t win you a GPP but won’t sink you either. 18 or more fantasy points scored in every game this season, facing an Ole Miss defense going in the wrong direction. The Rebels are 42nd in EPA per pass play and giving up 20.1 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – RBs. 2-1 split now in the UGA backfield between Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton, as the UGA staff continues to build up Milton’s confidence and stamina since coming back from injury. Milton has now found the end-zone in four straight games, and like him as the cheaper pivot to Edwards if wanting exposure to the UGA backfield. There are better options at RB in Edwards’ price range that he’s probably a fade with Milton’s presence. We’re not seeing 7-8 different receivers being utilized by Georgia in 2023 like we’ve seen in the past either, which make WR Dominic Lovett ($5,500) or WR Rara Thomas ($4,800) potential options as well. Top trio of McConkey, Lovett and Thomas all played over 67% of the snaps last week against Missouri.
Injury Notes – TE Brock Bowers ($7,200) The chatter is that Bowers is back at practice this week with a chance to play, but on a limited snap count. There’s no way to rationalize playing Bowers at this pricing if he’s not playing the entirety of the game. Wet surface conditions doesn’t help the chances of Bowers returning from an ankle injury either.
Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -16.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: A&M 29.5 – MSU 13
Weather: 60 degrees / 32% rain / 10 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Full-team fade here as we don’t expect Mississippi State to score more than a touchdown on Saturday with just one player projected to surpass 10 fantasy points against A&M. The caveat is said player – Mike Wright – may not start as Will Rogers is on the mend, or the turnover the keys to freshman Chris Parson because of how ineffective Wright has been. The other storyline to monitor is at running back where the MSU beat writer is suggesting that Jo’Quavious Marks has made progress in practice this week, but “would be a surprise” if the senior back was able to play on Saturday. WRs Zavion Thomas ($4,300), Lideatrick Griffin ($5,400) and Justin Robinson ($4,500) all get a slight bump in value with Mike Wright no longer under center if that occurs. Griffin had 12 targets last week in the blowout loss to Kentucky. A&M is allowing 17.9 FPPG to WR1s.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Ainias Smith ($5,100) The most consistent offensive playmaker A&M has had this season, now with 70 or more receiving yards in six of the last seven games. Mississippi State has allowed some big-time performances from wide receivers too this season, giving up 22.1 FPPG to WR1s. I always enjoy reading game previews/predictions from beat writers to get a sense of how they feel the game will play out. Of the three predictions, just one had the Aggies going over 20 points on Saturday. I think this could be a dud of a game with two unmotivated teams.
Fade – QB Max Johnson ($6,700) Not that Max Johnson has been anything special, but it’s a shame that he’s questionable for Saturday night as he’s facing a bad secondary in Mississippi State that is allowing 23.6 FPPG to quarterbacks and 116th in success rate. To their credit, but Bulldogs have been better the last two games, but facing KJ Jefferson and Devin Leary will help out any defense’s statistics. Sounds as though there is a real possibility that Fresno State transfer Jaylen Henderson could start, or at least play some.
Bargain Bin – WR Jahdae Walker ($4,000) Walker comes into play if Evan Stewart is out, as the 6-foot-4 junior had a career-best 10 targets with 100 receiving yards last week against Ole Miss. Walker impressed earlier in the year with Stewart and Noah Thomas both banged up, catching five passes for 110 yards and a score vs. ULM.
Pivot Play – WR Evan Stewart ($6,000) DFS players were MAD at the Texas A&M media for not pointing out that Stewart would not play against Ole Miss until after the fact. Probably too busy eating some pecan pie and brisket at the media brunch instead of reporting. Sounds as though Stewart was practicing this week but has not been effective or fully available since the second week of the season.
Best of the Rest – RBs. I think we’re back to a committee approach in the A&M backfield with Amari Daniels, Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens all getting carries. Would strongly lean towards the two veterans over the 5-star if interested in one. MSU is 39th in EPA per run play defensively and giving up just 14.3 FPPG to RB1s. Solid defensive front for the Bulldogs.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on Stewart and the QB situation.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -31.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: OSU 39.5 – MSU 8
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Michigan State:
NBC has really had some doozies for the Big Ten Saturday night matchups. Last week was Michigan’s drubbing of Purdue and now we get to view MSU get buried by the Buckeyes. Lowest implied team total of the slate and just one player projected to score more than 10 fantasy points. WR Montorie Foster ($4,300) has played very well the last month and a half, with 46 targets in the last six games, including a season’s best 94 yards and a touchdown vs. Nebraska. Ohio State is allowing the 13th fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($6,900) Yes, Henderson is comfortably Ohio State’s top play based on projection + pricing. But here’s where the Miyan Williams injury comes into play. How much does Ohio State want to run their clear RB1 in a likely blowout scenario with bigger games on the horizon? Something to consider if trying to be different in GPPs, because Henderson will have massive ownership at just $6.9k. To their credit, the Spartans have been very good against the run this season, ranked 40th in rush D success rate and allowing just 12.5 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,400) Still don’t think Egbuka is trustworthy yet to play in DFS, as one Buckeye observer also noted they seem to believe the star receiver was still favoring his leg against Rutgers. Egbuka played 33 of 54 snaps, targeted five times with four receptions.
Bargain Bin – TE Gee Scott Jr. ($3,800) If Stover plays, then this suggestion could go up in flames. The former 4-star got the starting nod against Rutgers and performed well with three receptions and a touchdown on four targets. Normally we wouldn’t consider Scott in these circumstances, but we’re very interested in tight ends facing Michigan State. For the second straight season, the Spartans are giving up the most fantasy points in the country to tight ends.
Pivot Play – QB Kyle McCord ($7,900) Playing the narrative game here as I kind of like this spot for McCord as a confidence booster and having his full complement of pass-catchers at his disposal. We know what OSU has in this running game as evidence the last few weeks. Time for the Buckeyes to impose their will in the passing game. MSU does grade out relatively well against the pass, ranking 41st in success rate and giving up 17.8 FPPG to quarterbacks, but much of that is to do with the lack of explosive offenses in the conference.
Best of the Rest – RB Chip Trayanum ($5,000) 23+ carries in each of the last two games for TreVeyon Henderson who has dominated the backfield market share, but this is the biggest spread Ohio State has had in the last month. Have to assume Chip will get carries in a blowout situation as the team’s RB2 with Miyan Williams done for the season. No explanation needed for WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,900) as a potential option. The question is does Ohio State continue to boost his Heisman campaign with some garbage time numbers.
Injury Notes – TE Cade Stover ($4,300) The senior tight end was suited up against Rutgers but wound up not playing. He’ll likely be available for Saturday, but up to the individual on how much you want to risk playing him. High upside for reasons given above.
Duke vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -13.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UNC 32 – Duke 18.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 5% rain / 5 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaquez Moore ($4,700) I’ll take the salary savings in the Duke backfield with Moore being $1.4k cheaper than RB Jordan Waters ($6,400) despite this being a 55-45 split rotation in favor of the latter. With Riley Leonard out, it might be an opportunity to stack the Duke RBs together in a GPP lineup, facing a North Carolina defense that is 87th in rush D success rate and giving up 28 FPPG to opposing running backs – 40th most in the country.
Fade – QB Grayson Loftis ($6,400) 7-of-19 for 86 yards against a mediocre Wake Forest secondary. Self-explanatory on what seems to be a very high-scoring slate ahead, meaning no need to take risks with a longshot QB. To add to the fact, North Carolina has been surprisingly good against the pass this season, allowing just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering anyone below $5k.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,700) Had just one catch vs. Wake Forest last week, but was targeted eight times in the win. For as good as UNC has been against the pass (for UNC standards), the Tar Heels are allowing 20.1 FPPG to WR1s this season. And three of those four have been slot receivers as Xavier Restrepo, Malik Washington, Malik Rutherford, and Dashaun Davis all scored 25 fantasy points or more in their individual matchups.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Moore ($5,900) Highest projected Duke player this week for us, but tough to rationalize with the backup quarterback. Caught a touchdown last week on four targets, but we’re sticking with the trend of slot receivers succeeding against the UNC secondary – meaning I favor Calhoun on Saturday.
Injury Notes – QB Riley Leonard ($6,800) Expected to miss an extended period of time, likely for the remainder of the season.
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($6,800) Best running back option on the slate with four-straight 100-yard rushing performances. The Duke run defense is solid, but unspectacular, allowing 15.3 FPPG to RB1s and 77th in rush D success rate. But the big names among the ACC running backs have dominated the Blue Devils with Jawhar Jordan, Audric Estime and Will Shipley all scoring more than 25 fantasy points in their respective matchup. Hampton is better than all three of those backs.
Fade – RB British Brooks ($4,000) Hampton has taken this backfield over with an 87-26 advantage in rushing attempts. This is not the committee approach we saw in the month of September.
Bargain Bin – WR Tychaun Chapman ($3,100) The 4-star freshman would get the start in the slot should both Nate McCollum and Kobe Paysour be out on Saturday. Caught two passes on two targets in the win over Campbell last week. Also caught a 35-yard touchdown filling in for McCollum in the Georgia Tech loss.
Pivot Play – QB Drake Maye ($9,400) Narrative is the main reason I’d consider Maye in that this will be his last game in front of the home crowd, as the junior QB will be one of the top three picks in this year’s NFL Draft. Duke’s secondary is excellent, ranking 27th in EPA per pass play and giving up only 14.4 FPPG to quarterbacks. That said, the Blue Devils also allowed a broken Mitch Griffis to complete 16-of-19 passes against them last week.
Best of the Rest – TE Bryson Nesbit ($4,100) Folks will gravitate towards the super cheap slot receiver replacement in Chapman, but don’t forget about Nesbit who plays 76% of his snaps in the slot, and that usage has seen an increase as a result of the injuries. Team-high 10 targets last week against Campbell, and three touchdowns in the last five games. We know what kind of weapon WR Tez Walker ($8,100) is in the passing game and can be played solo or stacked with Maye. Again, the Duke secondary is the concern, allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers.
Injury Notes – WR Nate McCollum ($6,500) The slot receiver is dealing with a lower-body injury and will be questionable for Saturday. Likely not an option even if he does suit up as he’s struggled since his breakout performances earlier in the year with just 32 yards in the last three games.
