Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -14.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Clem 35 – GT 20.5
Weather: 55 degrees / 32% rain / 9 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Eric Singleton ($4,700) Has there been a better freshman receiver in all of college football than Singleton? 80 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games, while finding the end-zone in six of eight games played. And still only $4.7k. WR1s have had some level of success against this Tigers’ secondary as well with five different receivers scoring 17 or more fantasy points against them.
Fade – RBs. You look at the box scores and the tandem of Jamal Haynes and Dontae Smith have been on an absolute tear in the last several games. Let’s look at the defenses faced in that stretch and where they rank in the ACC standings. Virginia – 13th. North Carolina – 9th. Boston College – 12th. In Week 6 vs. the number one ranked defense in the conference – Miami, Georgia Tech had just 104 yards on the ground, 51 of which came from the quarterback. Clemson is 3rd in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground and 12th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering anyone below $4.5k.
Pivot Play – QB Haynes King ($8,800) Won’t have much exposure here given the price tag and matchup, as Clemson allows only 14.9 FPPG to quarterbacks. Jordan Travis and Riley Leonard are the only quarterbacks to surpass 16 fantasy points against the Tigers this season. Working in King’s favor here is the running ability as both Leonard and Travis had rushing touchdowns in their respective matchups, with the Duke QB rushing for 98 yards on eight carries. King has been too good this season to doubt him, scoring 30 or more fantasy points six times with a season-low of 18 fantasy points. That’s a solid floor to work with.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Rutherford ($5,000) Rutherford leads the team with 37 receptions on 56 targets with the most routes run among GT receivers. That said, he needs mass volume with a 7.2 aDOT and 6.2 targets per game with a 66.1% catch rate is not high-volume.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($5,700) IF by chance Will Shipley is out, Mafah is the top play on the slate not named Ollie Gordon. If Shipley playing means less ownership for Mafah, even better in this advantageous matchup with a Georgia Tech defense that ranks 101st in rush D success rate and allowing 20.4 FPPG to RB1s. The quote from HC Dabo Swinney this week about his RB room stands out to me – “Phil got hot last week; we are going to make sure he has a chance to stay hot. Don’t get amnesia, we won a lot of games because of Will Shipley. And he’ll remind you real quick. But Phil definitely earned an opportunity to see if he can stay hot.” That sounds a lot like Phil Mafah will get the start on Saturday.
Fade – WR Beaux Collins ($5,200) I think we’re coming to the end of the line for Collins in a Clemson uniform, or at least as a starter as the season winds down. Ran the second most routes of any Clemson pass-catcher last week against Notre Dame, but minimal production yet again, and yet another drop.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,200) Quiet day for Briningstool last week with two receptions on four targets, but nobody has a productive week when the team only throws for 109 passing yards. Georgia Tech has allowed just one tight end to score more than 10 fantasy points against them (Bryson Nesbit). Still like the TE1 as a potential option here as he’s trending up in the last month with 20 of his 33 receptions coming in the last four games.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,300) Will we see one Cade Klubnik heater before the season concludes? Saturday is his best shot, facing a Georgia Tech secondary that is allowing 24.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks – 12th most in the country. The fact that GT is also projected to score around three touchdowns this weekend means we likely won’t see Clemson just ground and pound their way to victory.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyler Brown ($5,000) The freshman slot receiver found the end-zone against Notre Dame on his lone target, running the third-most routes among Clemson wideouts. Georgia Tech has really struggled defending slot receivers this season. Malik Washington, Xavier Restrepo, Finn Hogan and Jordan Watkins all surpassed 20 fantasy points against the Yellow Jackets. WR Troy Stellato ($4,500) has taken over the starting outside spot from Adam Randall and has been the most-targeted Clemson receiver over the last two weeks with 10 receptions on 14 targets.
Injury Notes – RB Will Shipley ($5,900) All signs point to Will Shipley playing on Saturday, though we’re not expecting a full workload coming back from concussion. His availability pertains more to Mafah.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -3.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: KU 33 – TT 29.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($7,700) Brooks has been Tech’s top play for two months now and no reason to shy away from that. 100+ rushing yards in six of the last seven games with exactly 31 rushing attempts in three of the last four. So, it’s a matter of how good a play Brooks is with this Kansas defense. Numbers would suggest…pretty damn good matchup. The Jayhawks rank 125th in EPA per rush play defensively and giving up 20.8 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,300) Did Bradley sleep with Behren Morton’s girlfriend or something, because the junior receiver simply doesn’t get targeted in this offense when Morton is under center. 38 targets for Bradley in the month of September. 23 targets in the five games since, with less than 25 receiving yards in four of the five. Remember last year when Bradley did close the year with three touchdowns in the last three games, but there’s no evidence at this moment to support starting Bradley at this pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($3,800) Priced up this week, but not by much. Eakin has been Tech’s best receiver of late, coming off a season-high eight receptions on eight targets against TCU.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($7,100) Most will be on Brooks, and rightfully so, but we saw the extreme upside of the sophomore quarterback last week in his first game back from injury, throwing for 282 yards and three total touchdowns in the win over TCU. Kansas doesn’t grade out well vs. the pass either, ranking 125th in pass D success rate and 22.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. I can envision stacking both Brooks and Morton together in a game stack with Kansas on the other side with this 60.5-point game total.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier White ($3,900) Late season surge from White over the last three games with 11 receptions on 16 targets in that span. Noticeable uptick in playing time as well, despite splitting snaps in the slot with Myles Price. 25 routes run in each of the last two games, good for fourth most among Tech wideouts.
Injury Notes – TE Mason Tharp ($3,700) Confirmed out this week.
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,100) Feels like a broken record suggesting Devin Neal as KU’s best fantasy asset, but the junior back is getting the job done weekly, hitting 20 or more fantasy points in three of the last four. Neal has also matched his season-long total from a year ago with 21 receptions on 27 targets with three games to play so his passing game usage is up. This is not a matchup you need to jam Neal into your lineups, though, with Tech allowing just 14.6 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,100) Tight spread facing a good run defense means we’re not going to be interested in KU’s backup. 21-9 carry advantage in favor of Neal last week against Iowa State.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,000) Texas Tech is allowing the ninth most fantasy points in college football to tight ends in 2023. Five tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Red Raiders. Fairchild is second on the team in routes run in 2023 and tied for third in targets.
Pivot Play – QB Jason Bean ($7,400) I’d assume it is because of the limited depth behind Bean now that Jalon Daniels is likely out for the season, but still surprising to see that KU is not utilizing Bean’s rushing ability at all despite being one of the best athletes on the team. Makes sense from the coaching perspective as you can’t lose Bean to injury, but also diminishes a lot of his fantasy value. That said, Tech is below average on the backend, ranked 81st in pass D success rate and allowing 23.7 FPPG to quarterbacks – 19th most in the country.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Analyzing Kansas receiver production is the bane of my existence because the targets are equally dispersed and rarely if ever are any of them fantasy difference makers. Lawrence Arnold leads the team by a healthy margin in routes run, targets (40) and receptions (31), coming off his best performance of the season with 112 yards and a score vs. Iowa State. Quentin Skinner has over 200 receiving yards combined over the last three weeks with almost a 30.0 YPC average. Jason Bean and the receivers discussed this week how the group is building rapport with one another with more experience.
Injury Notes – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,400) Daniels is considered questionable this week, but I don’t anticipate seeing him again in a Jayhawk uniform.
Michigan vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: UM -4.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UM 25 – PSU 20.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,200) Corum should not be priced this highly based on his season-long stats, but can’t ignore the floor here, finding the end-zone now in every game in 2023. His 16 rushing touchdowns this season leads the FBS, and now he’ll finally see a 4th quarter rushing attempt in what Michigan’s most competitive game of the season should be. Last time Michigan was challenged by an opponent was back in Week 4 against Rutgers for comparison’s sake, and Corum had a season-high 21 rushing attempts for 97 yards and two scores.
Fade – QB J.J. McCarthy ($9,100) I love my quarterback but going to fade him at this price with 5-6 other QBs on the slate that have better matchups and higher projections. Penn State ranks No. 1 nationally in pass D success rate and allows the fourth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Morris ($3,100) Extreme longshot as the Michigan passing game centers around its two starting receivers and tight end duo, but the staff has been ramping Morris’ reps up here the last month or so as the WR3 behind Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson. Nine of his 15 targets have come in the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,100) I doubt I’ll pull the trigger here, especially with Kalel Mullings now back from injury, but just look at Edwards’ performances in big games in the last calendar year. 173 yards and two scores against Penn State last year. 216 yards and two scores vs. Ohio State. 185 yards against Purdue in the B1G title game. Granted some of that came with Blake Corum injured, but Edwards does shine in the bright moments. Repeatedly the telecasts have said the coaching staff is ramping up Edwards’ touches and want to get him more involved. Coach speak or prepping him for another bright lights moment?
Best of the Rest – Pass-catchers. Lean on your best players in these situations. That’s WR Roman Wilson ($6,100) who has 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns and TE Colston Loveland ($4,900) who is beginning to prove why some people compared him to Brock Bowers in the offseason, now with 214 receiving yards and three TDs in the last three games. Can’t ignore WR Cornelius Johnson ($4,500) either as the pivot play, as the senior has run the most routes of any Michigan player this season. He’s also got a penchant for coming up with big plays in big moments.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keandre Lambert-Smith ($6,000) Tough for me to look at this game from an objective vantage point being a Michigan fan. And feels strange touting any opponent’s player vs. a top two defense in college football. Despite Michigan allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to receivers, we’ll roll with the clear and established WR1 in KLS who has caught at least six passes in each of the last four games and 26% of the team’s target share. With that said, good luck going against Michigan’s No. 1 corner and future top 10 draft pick in Will Johnson. Advantage Wolverines there.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($7,200) Allar has crumbled in big-game situations previously (see Ohio State game) and now faces a top three defense in the country that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in all of college football. There will be an outlier in this game, but I doubt it’ll be Allar.
Bargain Bin – TEs. 10 combined touchdowns from the pairing of Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren who accounted for 13 targets and two scores in the win last week over Maryland.
Pivot Play – RBs. The Penn State running game will take off at some point, right? I thought this team would resemble the 2022 version of Michigan with a dominant run game to support a first year starting QB and simply hasn’t materialized. Probably not the week for it to happen against a defense that is allowing the third fewest fantasy points to running backs in college football that also ranks No. 5 in rush D success rate. GPP only for Kaytron Allen or Nick Singleton as they’ll see very little ownership. Interesting that a bold prediction from the team’s beat writer is that Allen catches a receiving touchdown on Saturday. Edge to Allen over Singleton if selecting a Penn State back, particularly after last week’s performance with the sophomore rushing for a season-high 91 yards on 14 attempts.
Best of the Rest – WR Dante Cephas ($5,000) That was the Dante Cephas Penn State fans thought they were getting when he transferred over from Kent State, finishing with 6-53-2 on seven targets in the win over Maryland. Cephas is now listed on the top line of the depth chart and will start on Saturday after seeing his most playing time of the season last week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulsa vs. Tulane
Point-Spread: Tul -23.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Tul 38 – Tula 14.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 43% rain / 10 mph winds
Tulsa:
Three options here as Tulsa will enter Saturday potentially starting their third-string quarterback. RB Anthony Watkins ($5,600) had a season-high 24 rushing attempts for 146 yards and a score last week against Charlotte. That likely won’t be replicated against a Tulane defense that is giving up just 12.1 FPPG to running backs and 29th in rush D success rate. Tulsa won’t be in a position to run the ball like that being in a trailing position in all likelihood. At receiver, WR Malachai Jones ($3,700) and WR Kamdyn Benjamin ($3,800) are cheap enough to warrant some consideration. Jones, the team’s projected WR1 coming into the season, played a season-high in snaps last week with six targets. Finally seems to be 100% healthy. Benjamin has three or more receptions in each of the last four games. Tulane is allowing the 37th most fantasy points in the country to receivers.
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($5,800) The stud freshman running back will be a popular play on Saturday given the circumstances. 23-point favorite, modest salary at $5.8k and over 53% of Tulane’s total rushing volume with 20 or more carries in each of the last five games. Tulsa allows 17.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s who also are scoring 10.9 fantasy points above their seasonal average when facing the Hurricane this season.
Fade – RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson ($3,800) Prior to the season, we were either expecting Clayton-Johnson to be Tulane’s lead back or for this to be a committee. Wrong and Wrong. SCJ has just 33 rushing yards since September.
Bargain Bin – TE Alex Bauman ($3,300) Strong performance this season from the 6-foot-5 sophomore tight end with an 85.2% catch rate on 27 targets and tied for second with four receiving touchdowns, all of which have come in the last five games.
Pivot Play – QB Michael Pratt ($8,200) While most will be on Hughes for Saturday, Pratt also has a dream matchup with a Tulsa defense that is 128th in pass D success rate and allowing over 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Pratt will have less ownership than Hughes on Saturday, and stacking the two together is also a viable option as they account for 24 of the 30 total touchdowns Tulane has scored this season offensively.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Tulsa sits one spot behind Stanford for most fantasy points allowed this season to opposing wide receivers, and Tulane has three good ones in Chris Brazzell, Lawrence Keys III and Jha’Quan Jackson who account for 13 of the team’s 18 receiving touchdowns and 61% of the target share. Keys gets the nod as the preferred option with a team-high seven scores, but the ball is equally distributed for the most part. Texas A&M transfer Yulkeith Brown has come on a bit of late too with 13 receptions in the last four weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a. Think we’re good here, but this is the trouble with G5 teams on the Main Slate. We can easily find information on these teams during a mid-week slate. Very difficult to uncover this information at 2 pm on a Saturday.
Alabama vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: Ala -10.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Ala 28.5 – UK 18
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($9,000) I think this matchup sets up nicely for Milroe, coming off his season’s best 50-point performance in the win over LSU last weekend. Finally, we saw the rushing output we expected out of Milroe with 155 yards and four scores on 20 carries on Saturday. Not expecting a repeat performance, but nice to have proof that Milroe isn’t dealing with the hamstring injury he had in October. Kentucky is only allowing 14.1 FPPG to quarterbacks this season but are 64th in EPA per pass play defensively and 118th in pass D success rate. If Kentucky spies Milroe to limit him on the ground, he should find success through the air.
Fade – TE Amari NiBlack ($3,300) NiBlack recorded just 12 pass snaps last week in the LSU shootout and might’ve hit the freshman wall at this point. Maryland transfer CJ Dippre nearly doubled that.
Bargain Bin – RB Jam Miller ($3,000) Jam Miller had his best performance in some time with four carries for 17 yards, while adding a 35-yard reception in the passing game. And this was when the game hadn’t been decided either still. Will we see that momentum continue into this week? Last time we suggested a backup Alabama RB as a potential option, Justice Haynes tallied zero fantasy points, fwiw.
Pivot Play – WRs. Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond continue to carry the torch for the Alabama pass-catchers with 44% of the team’s target share and 8 of the 13 receiving touchdowns. Four highest scoring receivers to face Kentucky this season have all been played on the boundary, so perhaps lean slightly to Burton if choosing one.
Best of the Rest – RB Jase McClellan ($6,500) McClellan was a victim of game script last week with Alabama riding the hot hand with Milroe in the running game. Don’t see that playing out the same way this week with Kentucky having Milroe front and center on the scouting report. The Wildcats are allowing just 12.4 FPPG to RB1s this season and rank 38th in rush D success rate, so it won’t be easy sledding in the trenches.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
We’re going to cut some corners here and suggest a full-team fade for the Wildcats. Devin Leary is certainly not an option against this Alabama secondary. RB Re’Mahn Davis’ ($7,800) rushing prop has fallen at least 10 yards since open, sitting at just 66 yards currently juiced to the under. The Kentucky running game has struggled in recent weeks, averaging just 4.2 YPC against two mediocre defenses in Missouri and Mississippi State. The highest fantasy total from a running back against Bama this season was just 13.8 Fpts from a backup in a blowout situation.
Four receivers have scored 18 or more fantasy points this season against the Bama secondary, but the target share is split three ways between Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key and Barion Brown to which you’re simply guessing as to which is the preferred option that week. Slot receivers tend to have the most success against the Tide this season (Ainias Smith, Squirrel White), so maybe Robinson here who has 12 targets in the last two weeks. Sounds as though Alabama might be starting a backup in the nickel this week as defensive injuries have piled up. That’s potentially good news for Robinson facing a second-stringer.
Miami vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -13.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: FSU 32 – Mia 18.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 9% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Colbie Young ($4,500) Don’t feel any pressure to roster anyone from the Miami offense on Saturday. And I don’t feel comfortable listing Young here as the top option, but he’s cheap and Miami will throw regardless of who the quarterback is as a two-touchdown underdog. Earlier in the season when the offense was humming, it made sense to spend up for a WR Xavier Restrepo ($7,000). At the current moment, not so much. The two highest scoring wide receivers that faced Florida State this year have both been boundary wideouts like Young. With that said, FSU allows the eight fewest fantasy points in the country to receivers.
Fade – QBs. This would be a fade even if we knew exactly who the starter would be, as Florida State allows the fifth fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. That is still up in the air as of Thursday as Tyler Van Dyke looks like a broken QB at this point, throwing zero touchdowns and five interceptions combined over the last two games. Still believe ultimately that TVD gets the start but would not be shocked in the slightest to see the staff go to Emory Williams or Jacurri Brown at some point.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering anyone below $4.5k.
Pivot Play – RB Mark Fletcher ($6,400) It’s almost as if DraftKings had this information beforehand last week that the 4-star freshman was taking over the Miami backfield (and no, that information was not posted on any Miami sites) because I called it absurd that they listed him at $6.4k for the night slate. Turns out that was on point as Fletcher rushed for 115 yards on 23 attempts with both Henry Parrish and Don Chaney Jr. combining for just five carries. Matchup isn’t great as a double-digit dog, but FSU has been gashed at time on the ground this season, allowing 16 FPPG to running backs. The only reason Fletcher isn’t the top play on the Miami offense is the tiny bit of unknown as to whether this is fully the freshman’s backfield with Parrish, Chaney and a healthy Ajay Allen available.
Best of the Rest – WR Jacolby George ($5,100) Led Miami with five receptions on eight targets last week against NC State, which mirrored his stat-line from the prior week. George is now second on the team in routes run in 2023, as Miami rarely rotates at receiver beyond the top three of George, Restrepo and Young.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan Travis ($9,500) Silly me for betting under on a passing prop for a Heisman candidate. Travis demolished his player prop line last week, despite being down his top two receivers, throwing for 360 yards and two total touchdowns in the win over Pittsburgh. A rivalry win over Miami with gaudy numbers could be a tremendous resume builder for Travis for his Heisman candidacy. Far from a gimme matchup against a Miami secondary that is 15th in pass D success rate and giving up just 15.7 FPPG in 2023. But Travis is seemingly matchup proof at this point.
Fade – TE Jaheim Bell ($5,100) Thought Bell would be the primary receiving option last week with Wilson and Coleman out of the lineup. The senior tight end still caught five passes, but resulting in minimal yardage and now must compete for targets with Wilson and Coleman likely back in the lineup. $5.1k is also too expensive for a tight end that isn’t Brock Bowers.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’Khi Douglas ($4,000) Someone was going to pop last week with Coleman/Wilson out of the lineup and it was the WR/RB hybrid in Douglas who led the team with 115 yards receiving on eight targets. Not expecting that level of production this week, but Douglas should still be factor in the slot with Winston Wright no longer with the program. Douglas will be the starting slot-man moving forward.
Pivot Play – WR Keon Coleman ($6,600) or WR Johnny Wilson ($5,500) Both receivers were seen in practice this week in full pads and are likely to play on Saturday. Coleman was most likely held out for precautionary reasons last week and would have played if it were the National Championship game. Clearly not needed at all against the likes of Pittsburgh. Miami is allowing 20.5 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season and the Canes’ secondary struggles with giving up explosive plays. Not a recipe for success when facing two wide receivers who average over 14 YPC.
Best of the Rest – RB Trey Benson ($7,000) The weekly debate of whether to start Trey Benson or not. High-level numbers say avoid. Miami allows just 13.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 16th in rush D success rate. The strategy for DFS is simple here regarding Benson. Cash games, avoid. GPP, give a sprinkle of Benson ownership as he’s starting to find his groove a bit with 50 fantasy points in the last two games and FSU being a two-touchdown favorite should work in his favor from a game script perspective. Miami has allowed just five rushing attempts of 20+ yards or more which does not help Benson’s case here.
Injury Notes – n/a Florida State looks to be healthy entering Saturday’s in-state matchup.
Arizona vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: AZ -10.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: AZ 32.5 – Col 22
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – QB Noah Fifita ($6,000) Fairly straightforward here. 25-point projection at $6k makes Fifita arguably the top quarterback option on the slate. Three or more passing touchdowns in four of his five starts since taking over for Jayden de Laura, facing a Colorado defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points in the country.
Fade – n/a They’ve priced down every Arizona option on DraftKings to where you can consider all contributors. I was going to suggest WR Montana Lemonious-Craig ($3,900) considering he’s not made the impact that some expected with just 28 targets in nine games, but this is a revenge spot against his former team.
Bargain Bin – RB DJ Williams ($3,000) Williams actually might be a stronger play than Jonah Coleman come to think of it. Not the starter by any means but does move up the depth chart if Michael Wiley is out. And the former Auburn transfer has carried the ball 10 or more times in four of the last six games.
Pivot Play – RB Jonah Coleman ($4,300) Cheap enough to where you don’t mind stacking Coleman and Fifita together in a lineup, especially considering there may be one less body in the Arizona backfield contending for carries with Michael Wiley considered doubtful. The Buffs are only mildly better against the run vs. the pass, but not by much…ranking 94th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers We don’t have the three-way split we had last year when Dorian Singer was in the fold. Top-heavy target share between Jacob Cowing and Tet McMillan who combine for 56% of the targets and 16 of the team’s 23 receiving touchdowns. Colorado has allowed the third most fantasy points to receivers in college football this season, and big/physical outside receivers like McMillan have given the Buffs the most troubles. TE Tanner McLachlan ($4,000) has acted as the de facto WR3 for Arizona this season with three or more receptions in all but two games. Colorado has also allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends in college football.
Injury Notes – RB Michael Wiley ($4,500) Wiley re-aggravated the ankle injury he suffered in Week 4 that caused him to miss three games. The senior back was seen pounding the turf and being helped off the field vs. UCLA, and I’d suspect he does not play on Saturday given the length of time for which the previous ankle injury kept him out.
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – n/a. There is not a core play on the Colorado side that we need to force in our lineups, unless stacking this game. Arizona players are cheaper with higher projections.
Fade – RBs. Change in offensive playcaller didn’t change the results much as Colorado ran the football just 13 times against Oregon State, resulting in 2.5 yards per carry. No running back on the roster had more than five rushing attempts. Results have been identical for the last three games. Colorado ranks 126th in rush play percentage and 81st in success rate when they do.
Bargain Bin – WR Omarion Miller ($4,300) Remember this 4-star freshman that went for 196 yards back in Week 5 vs. USC? Hasn’t done a thing since, but Miller was listed as the starter last week against Oregon State, playing 34 of 60 offensive snaps. With Colorado’s season trending downward, this is the time of year to get valuable snaps for potential difference makers in the coming years. I won’t have any exposure to Miller on this main slate but wouldn’t shock me if he has a good performance here before the season concludes.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Weaver ($6,800) Last game for Weaver in front of the home crowd as he’ll graduate and likely get selected in the NFL Draft. Folks have been understandably disappointed in Weaver’s production in the last month, but still leads the Buffs in targets, receptions and routes run this season. It’s not as though his playing time has wavered at all in the last 3-4 week stretch.
Best of the Rest – QB Shedeur Sanders ($9,200) At $8.2k, Sanders might be a more desired QB option here, but can’t rationalize it at this pricing with just a 22.9-point projection. Doesn’t help that Sanders is not 100% after taking so much QB hits this season, failing to score more than 15 fantasy points in either of the last two games. The pass defense for Arizona is significantly worse than the run defense, ranking 85th in EPA per pass play, but are only giving up 14.9 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Only Caleb Williams has scored more than 20 fantasy points on the Wildcats. Don’t have much to add for either WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($6,000) or WR Travis Hunter ($6,400), both of whom remain constants in the Colorado starting lineup. The three highest scoring receivers to face Arizona this season have all been slot receivers (Horn). Stacking Colorado wideouts in a lineup is no longer a viable option.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma State vs. UCF
Point-Spread: OSU -2.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: OSU 34 – UCF 31.5
Weather: 85 degrees / 17% rain / 9 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – QB Ollie Gordon ($7,900) Dream matchup for the best running back in college football, facing a UCF defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs in the game. Nothing more needs to be said.
Fade – Backups. Just two carries to running backs not named Ollie Gordon last week against Oklahoma. Four wide receivers played against the Sooners last week, with only three being targeted. That’s not to say OSU doesn’t have depth, but their starters are performing very well at the moment…so no rotation needed.
Bargain Bin – WR Leon Johnson III ($4,900) Redshirt officially burned as Johnson has gained the starting spot over injured Jaden Bray. Quieter day from Johnson against OU with five receptions for 70 yards on eight targets but played 74 of the 84 offensive snaps. Only time an Oklahoma State starting wide receiver is coming off the field is when OSU goes to run-based formations with two tight ends.
Pivot Play – QB Alan Bowman ($6,900) Everyone involved here deserves a ton of credit. Mike Gundy for identifying a competent starting quarterback via the portal. And Bowman, going from 5th string at Michigan to one of the better QBs in the Big 12. UCF’s strength on defense is the secondary, ranked 39th in success rate and allowing just 18 FPPG. But we have a 64.5-point game total and 20-point projection for Bowman. High floor play.
Best of the Rest – WR Brennan Presley ($5,800) and/or Rashod Owens ($5,100) I probably wouldn’t stack the Oklahoma State receivers together, though it does make some sense as the starting trio combined for 32 of the 38 targets last Saturday. UCF allows just 31.1 FPPG to opposing wide receiver groups, 22nd best mark in the country. A lot of that does have to do with the Knights getting trampled on via the ground, but this is a solid secondary nonethless. Three of the top four highest scoring receivers to face UCF this season have been slot receivers, so the slight edge to Presley.
Injury Notes – WR Jaden Bray ($4,600) Bray did not play again last week. Mike Gundy emphasized again that he will not comment about injuries to the media, but did say “we’re accumulating guys, though.” Big help there Gundy.
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($6,700) The most bankable part of the UCF offense this season. 100+ rushing yards in each of the last four games, coming off a season-high 164 yards and three scores on 20 carries. The backfield splits in the last month are heavily in favor of Harvey with only Johnny Richardson seeing rotational reps. Remember when we were concerned about Harvey’s workload this season because of former 5-star Demarckus Bowman transferring in? The Florida transfer hasn’t seen the field since Week 3 (assuming a redshirt there).
Fade – WR Trent Whittemore ($3,900) The Florida transfer has not made an impact this season with just three receptions, all of which coming in Week 9. Has run less than 10 routes in all but two games this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Jarrad Baker ($3,300) Baker is only in play if Townsend is out, and a longshot option at best even if he starts. Just one target against Cincinnati with two rushing attempts, but also played more offensive snaps than Javon Baker.
Pivot Play – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($7,500) Very surprised by JRP’s salary being priced lower than options like Tyler Van Dyke, Braylon Braxton, and Haynes King, given the game total here. 26-point projection at this salary makes JRP one of my favorite values on the slate, facing an Oklahoma State defense that allows 20.1 FPPG to quarterbacks. Dual threats like Jason Bean and Garrett Greene had a ton of success against the Cowboys.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($5,200) or Javon Baker ($5,900) Those that have been following the DFS content for the season know my stance on the UCF receivers. There is no way of evaluating which of Hudson or Baker will be the top option for that given week. Just don’t stack the two together in lineup is all we ask. The four highest scoring wide receivers vs. Oklahoma State have all been slot receivers, which doesn’t help us much here considering Xavier Townsend is a GTD.
Injury Notes – WR Xavier Townsend ($4,900) The sophomore slot receiver did not play against Cincinnati, but HC Gus Malzahn said that the team is hopeful he’ll be back on Saturday. Third on the team in receptions, targets and routes run.
Utah vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -8.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: UW 29 – Utah 20.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 95% rain / 22 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – Whoever starts at running back…if we find out. See below.
Fade – WR Money Parks ($4,300) Parks has been very friendly to my wallet this season in that I continue to hammer the under on his player prop at 35.5 yards and he has failed to reach that since Week 1. 15% drop rate on limited receiving opportunities down the field in a low-volume passing offense is an auto-fade.
Bargain Bin – TE Landen King ($3,600) The former Auburn transfer now starts at tight end with Brant Kuithe and Thomas Yassmin out for the season, and had, by far, his best performance of the year last week with 4-43-1 on six targets. I don’t need to reiterate the historical evidence of tight end production in this Utah offense over the years. King is plenty athletic as a former receiver.
Pivot Play – RB Sione Vaki ($5,300) The experiment was short-lived for Vaki on offense as he played all 45 defensive snaps at free safety last week, not receiving a single carry. Does that change now with Ja’Quinden Jackson potentially on the shelf? And if so, does he get carries over RB Jaylon Glover ($4,200) who ran for 64 yards on 14 attempts last week. Against Cal when both were playing running back, Vaki was the preferred choice. Very little clarity here, and wish we had some, going against a Washington defense that is 124th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Bryson Barnes ($7,400) Hit or miss when it comes to Barnes and his fantasy output, which is normal for a dual-threat quarterback that is a former walk-on. 28 fantasy points against lowly Arizona State. 4 fantasy points against upper-echelon teams in the Pac-12 like Oregon. Of the defensive components, the Washington pass D is far better than the run, but have allowed four different Pac-12 quarterbacks to score 22 or more fantasy points against them. Barnes will need to shoulder more of the offense if Ja’Quinden is out.
Injury Notes – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,500) Jackson has battled injuries all season long, and this week will be no different as he tweaked his ankle on the touchdown run against Arizona State last week. At this point, I simply don’t think you can play Jackson if not given a clear bill of health prior to the game…which we know we won’t get from HC Kyle Whittingham.
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Ja’Lynn Polk ($8,100) or Rome Odunze ($8,900) Not a situation where you can or should stack the two stud Washington receivers together, but Washington will still pile up the yardage through the air just as they do every week. Nearly 60% of the team’s receiving touchdowns (15) now for the duo and 48% target share. I do think the price discrepancy here makes Polk the more attractive option as the numbers have been very similar between the two over the last several weeks.
Fade – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($10,800) 22-point projection at this price in possible rainy conditions is an easy fade. Didn’t know this but apparently Penix has been dealing with the flu of late – a possible cause for his non-Heisman like performances of late, failing to throw for 300+ yards in two of the last three games. That is simply a must for a QB like Penix that doesn’t run. The Utes are allowing just 14.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any Washington player under $4.5k.
Pivot Play – WR Germie Bernard ($4,500) I expected more from the former Michigan State transfer in the absence of Jalen McMillan but hasn’t made the impact with just 57 receiving yards in the last two games. Bernard and Giles Jackson are sharing the slot position essentially, which downgrades their value.
Best of the Rest – RB Dillon Johnson ($7,600) While everyone was focused on the passing game components against the inferior USC defense, Johnson rumbled his way to a career-best 256 rushing yards and four touchdowns as the slate-breaker on Saturday night. Utah has not been as dominant against the run as they have been against the pass, but still a top ranked run defense that allows just 11.6 FPPG to RB1s. There are too many RB options on the slate to risk playing Johnson in this scenario.
Injury Notes – WR Jalen McMillan ($5,900) Will remain questionable and a game-time decision that we cannot consider because the last time McMillan suited up, he re-aggravated the injury that has been bothering him for weeks. Would it shock me if McMillan sits out the remainder of the year in preparation for the NFL Draft? If Washington loses at any point, I doubt we see McMillan again.
Tennessee vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: UT -2.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UT 30.5 – Mizzou 28
Weather: 56 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylen Wright ($5,400) Most college fantasy players were so hyper-focused on the Tennessee passing game that they failed to ignore the most talented option on the Vols’ offense in running back Jaylen Wright who has now hit 100 yards rushing in four of the last five games. Missouri does rank 18h in rush D success rate, but haven’t exactly shut down opposing run games, where RB1s are averaging over 16 FPPG. At 7.5 yards per carry, imagine what Wright would average on a team that featured him 15+ times a game which is essentially the only downside to his fantasy profile.
Fade – n/a All Tennessee contributors are priced at a salary where they’re at least under consideration.
Bargain Bin – WR Dont’e Thornton ($3,700) The former Oregon transfer has been a fantasy bust this season, but noticeable that the coaching staff has finally made the move to shift Thornton outside to his more natural role. Over 90% of Thornton’s snaps have come outside now opposite Ramel Keyton and is no longer sharing the slot role with Squirrel White. Production is still minimal, but Thornton’s playing time should no longer fluctuate.
Pivot Play – RB Dylan Sampson ($5,000) Tennessee is a run-based offense in 2023, and that is where the talent resides on the roster this season. Even with Small returning, you saw in the Kentucky game which of the two is the better running back with Sampson rushing for 76 yards and a score on 17 attempts. The Vols divvy the backfield carries to a point where both Wright and Sampson are possible options.
Best of the Rest – QB Joe Milton ($7,800) Outside of Jayden Daniels, the Tigers haven’t given up that many fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. So why are they 87th in EPA per pass play defensively? The next four highest scoring QBs vs. Missouri this season include Seth Henigan, Nick Vattiato, Will Howard and Ken Seals. If they found success against the Tigers, Joe Milton can. 40% target share for the Vols this season belong to WR Squirrel White ($5,800) and WR Ramel Keyton ($4,700) combine for 40% of the target share, but not necessary to stack with Milton like the QB-WR duo we used last year with Hooker/Hyatt. Tennessee is just 99th in pass play percentage in 2023.
Injury Notes – RB Jabari Small ($3,500) The veteran running back was available against UConn but held out for precautionary reasons in the 56-point blowout. Small is a clear secondary option in the backfield behind Wright, though still gets 8-12 touches per game.
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Cody Schrader ($6,000) If Schrader can run for 112 yards on 22 carries against Georgia, I’m throwing out the good defensive numbers against the run for Tennessee. 20+ carries in each of the last three games for Schrader with Nathaniel Peat becoming a complete non-factor in the Mizzou backfield. Passing game usage is also up with 10 of Schrader’s 14 receptions this season coming in the last four games.
Fade – RB Nathaniel Peat ($4,700) The coaching staff promised us a 1,000-yard rusher for Missouri this season and we’ll likely get it as the backfield split between Schrader and Peat has vanished. Eight rushing attempts in the last four games for the former Stanford transfer.
Bargain Bin – WR Mekhi Miller ($3,100) Only an option if Luther Burden is out. Miller played 88% of his limited snaps in the slot last week where Burden normally lines up.
Pivot Play – WR Theo Wease ($5,100) Wease becomes a hot commodity on Saturday if Burden were to sit. The former Oklahoma transfer was targeted 11 times last week against Georgia and leads all Missouri receivers – yes, even more than Luther Burden – in routes run this season. Opposing wide receiver corps average just 31.7 FPPG against the Vols in 2023, 25th fewest in the country.
Best of the Rest – QB Brady Cook ($7,900) Lowest fantasy output of the season last week for Cook, but if you’re telling me that the floor is 17 fantasy points, that keeps you in the player pool as a potential option. I also like that Cook is apparently healthy now after dealing with a leg injury earlier in the year, as you can see his rushing numbers start to pick up the last three games. That looks like the 2022 version of Cook. Why the Missouri QB1 isn’t a lock is the Tennessee secondary which is 9th in pass D success rate. The Vols allow the 8th fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. WR Mookie Cooper ($4,900) is third on the team in targets (35) and receptions (30), while second in routes run behind Wease. Similar to Wease, everyone gets an uptick if Burden sits.
Injury Notes – WR Luther Burden ($6,900) Questionable for Saturday as HC Eli Drinkwitz said Burden was in a non-contact green jersey at practice. Burden has been questionable in at least two other games this season and wound up playing. I’ll assume the same for this Saturday too.
Minnesota vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: Purd -1.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Purd 24.5 – Minn 23
Weather: 50 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – WR Daniel Jackson ($5,200) When Minnesota drops back to pass, it’s going in one of three directions. Jackson leads the team with 35% target share and 70% of the team’s receiving touchdowns, finding the end-zone in five of the last six games. Seven receivers have scored 15 or more fantasy points against the Boilermakers this season.
Fade – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($5,200) The Greek Rifle has scored 20 or more fantasy points just once all season. Not playing him on the road on a Main Slate.
Bargain Bin – RB Jordan Nubin ($4,000) Darius Taylor did not suit up again last week, and while his redshirt has been burned already, I’m not sure we see the freshman in the lineup the rest of the year at this point. While Nubin did not pan out last week from a fantasy perspective with just 7.5 points scored, he still dominated the backfield market share with 19 rushing attempts, compared to just eight for backup Zach Evans. The guaranteed volume is difficult to ignore at this price.
Pivot Play – WR Corey Crooms ($4,500) We said when Minnesota drops back to pass, it’s in one of three directions. If not Jackson, it’s likely to the former Western Michigan transfer who is second in receptions, targets and routes run. TE Brevyn Spann-Ford ($3,200) caught his first touchdown of the season last week, and Purdue has allowed multiple Big Ten tight ends to surpass 20 fantasy points in a game this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Elijah Spencer ($3,900) Very surprised to see how little impact Spencer has had this season with just four receptions on six targets. The former Conference USA Freshman of the Year back in 2021 had 15 receiving touchdowns in his two seasons with Charlotte and looked to be potentially the WR1 with the Gophers after posting double-digit receptions in the team’s spring game. His playing time has increased the last two weeks, though, and did find the end-zone against Illinois last Saturday…albeit on one target.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Deion Burks ($5,000) Team’s best playmaker with 66% of Purdue’s receiving touchdowns, leading the Boilermakers in targets (73) and routes run. WR1s facing the Gophers secondary are averaging 20.6 FPPG which is a surprise to me. When playing Minnesota, those WR1s are averaging almost 13 fantasy points more than their seasonal average.
Fade – QB Hudson Card ($5,000) Super cheap but his production has taken a tumble since the opening month of the season, failing to score more than 12 fantasy points in a game since Week 5. Card had been limited by an ankle injury which has played a role. Matchup isn’t great against a Minnesota secondary that is 46th in pass D success rate, 40th in EPA per pass play and allows just 17.5 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayden Dixon-Veal ($3,000) Playing time has increased substantially over the last two games for the junior receiver with 11 of his 19 season-long targets coming in that span. Played 53 of 60 offensive snaps against Michigan last Saturday as he starts in place of the injured Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen.
Pivot Play – TE Garrett Miller ($3,700) 21 of Miller’s 27 targets this season have come in the last four games as the senior tight end is second in routes run among Purdue pass-catchers in that span. Minnesota allows just 5.4 FPPG to tight ends.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Minnesota is an average B1G run defense, ranking 85th in rush D success rate, 54th in EPA per run play, but do only allow 17.8 FPPG to opposing backfields. With both Devin Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy healthy, this is a 50-50 split which essentially nullifies them from DFS contention. The former Iowa transfer did take over the starting job in the Purdue backfield prior to his injury and held a 36-25 advantage in snaps played last week over Mockobee, so I’d give him the slight edge if choosing one.
Injury Notes – WR Abdur Rahmaan-Yaseen ($4,700) Questionable for Saturday after being out of the lineup since Week 6. His production had been trending downward, so no telling he gets his starting spot back over Dixon-Veal even when back to full strength.
Washington State vs. California
Point-Spread: Cal -2.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Cal 31 – Wazzu 28.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Ward ($8,500) Another get-right opportunity for Ward and the Wazzu passing offense, but we said that last week against Stanford and the Cougars had all of seven points against one of the worst statistical defenses in the country. Rain can only affect the offense so much. Perfect weather conditions expected for Saturday against a Cal defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks in college football.
Fade – RB Nakia Watson ($4,900) Watson doesn’t have an injury designation on DK, but is not 100% healthy, only playing nine snaps against Stanford. Washington State ranks 131st nationally in rush play percentage at 37.2% so we’re normally not investing much at all in Wazzu running backs as it is, and that is heightened with one that is dinged up.
Bargain Bin – RB Djouvensky Schlenbaker ($3,000) On that same note, the coaching staff heaped praise on Schlenbaker who made his first career start last week, carrying the football 13 times for 34 yards. Sounds like multiple running backs, including Watson, are not healthy and with sophomore Jaylen Jenkins leaving the team, Schlenbaker might garner 90% of the workload again. California can’t defend the run either, allowing the 11th most fantasy points to running backs in CFB.
Pivot Play – WR Kyle Williams ($5,700) Williams was the primary benefactor when Lincoln Victor was out with injury with over 350 receiving yards between Week’s 4-7. Even with Victor back in the lineup, Williams hit 100 receiving yards against Oregon, followed up by 12 targets in the loss to Arizona State. Williams is playable even if Victor is in the lineup and gets a major boost if we see surprise news on the injury front. Stacking Ward, Victor and Williams would be a risky proposition given the recent Washington State struggles but could pay off in GPPs. Cal allows the 24th most fantasy points to wide receivers, and WR2s average over 12 fantasy points against the Golden Bears this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Kelly ($5,600) Same arguments for Williams above can be made for Kelly, who is coming off his best performance since Week 4 with 89 yards and a touchdown on six targets. Just not as trustworthy as Williams or Victor, with 50 of less receiving yards in four of the last five games.
Injury Notes – WR Lincoln Victor ($5,800) Designated as probable, Victor left last week’s contest early due to injury, but head coach Jake Dickert noted that most/all players who did leave the game had practiced as of Wednesday. Victor continues to be the primary target-getter in this Air Raid offense with 44 targets in the last three games.
California:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaydn Ott ($7,500) I love Ott this week either as a standalone play or game stack option with Wazzu on the other side. For starters, Washington State struggles to defend the run, allowing 21.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. Cal is severly lacking depth right now due to injury as well with Isaiah Ifanse considered week to week (meaning OUT) and promising freshman Jaivian Thomas leading last week’s game in an ambulance after a scary head injury. I’d suspect Cal leans on their sophomore running back Saturday.
Fade – n/a. All major Cal contributors are options based on prices.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Endries ($3,500) Interested to see this sophomore tight end’s college career path over the next few seasons as Endries is fourth on the team with 22 receptions on 35 targets and second in routes run. Great matchup against a Washington State defense that allows the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends. 54.3% of Endries’ snaps this season are split out in the slot.
Pivot Play – QB Fernando Mendoza ($5,900) Didn’t think I’d be interested much in Mendoza on a Main Slate after his dismal performance a week ago but comes in at a 23-point projection which puts the Cal QB squarely in play at his pricing. Not entirely sure expected ownership percentage, but if it appears Mendoza will be highly owned, he might be a fade candidate too as Wazzu is better at defending the pass vs. the run, ranked 55th in pass D success rate and allowing just 16.5 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Hunter ($5,500) I expected more out of Hunter this season, averaging just 11.5 yards per catch with only four touchdowns in nine games. Still leads Cal in every receiving category and probably hits 90+ targets for the season, but just thought the fantasy numbers would be better given Cal’s poor defense. Sophomore WR Trond Grizzell ($4,800) has been the surprise, now with nine targets in each of the last two games as a 6-foot-4 slot receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
