To gain access to all of theCFFsite’s exclusive DFS content, as well as Weekly Player Projections, click here to see membership options for the 2022 season.
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.
Tulsa vs. Memphis
Point-Spread: Mem -7.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Mem 35 – Tulsa 27.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – WR Keylon Stokes ($7,500) Both fanbases and beat writers have essentially turned their attention to basketball at this point in the year, so information is tough to come by. Curious to see what kind of energy level Tulsa comes out with Thursday as their season is on the brink, needing to win the final three games for a bowl berth. Exact same scenario they were in last year and won three straight so maybe the motivation will still be there. Stokes is downgraded if Davis Brin sits Thursday, but the backup (more on that below) has shown enough to where the senior WR is the top option on the slate. 9.2 targets per game, and the team leader in receptions, routes run and yards per route run (2.98).
Fade – WR Malachai Jones ($4,600) Whereas we saw all four Tulsa receivers getting equal playing time to start the year, Jones has fallen off the last two weeks, playing just a third of the offensive snaps. First five games – 36 targets. Last four games – 10 targets.
Bargain Bin – QB Braylon Braxton ($5,700) The least expensive of the available QB options and I do think he’s playable in this two-gamer as long as we get word that Brin is out. Has completed less than 55% of his passes the last two games, but has four total touchdowns, zero turnovers and 18 rushing attempts in that span. Braxton has shown enough in his appearances this year, including throwing a touchdown at Ole Miss in Week 4, that he can be an option. Memphis is 113th in pass play success rate and allowing 29.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – QB Davis Brin ($6,200) Questionable, game-time decision with a shoulder injury. Did not play last week.
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – QB Seth Henigan ($7,400) Top QB option on the slate and I don’t think we can pivot away from him in this spot, though the argument could certainly be made. The Tulsa secondary has been good this year, ranking 18th in pass play success rate, allowing just 153 yards per game over the last six weeks. Now those QBs have consisted of Ben Bryant, EJ Warner and whomever starts at Jacksonville State and Navy these days, but impressive, nonetheless. Rushing QBs have given Tulsa the most fits this year, and Henigan has already surpassed last year’s totals with 289 yards and four TDs on 111 carries. Most important note here – you can play Henigan naked as we’ll discuss below.
Fade – RB Asa Martin ($5,900) This is essentially inclusive of all three Memphis running backs, not only in this matchup, but for the season as it’s been a two or three-way split for much of the year. But absolutely fade the most expensive here in Martin who had just five attempts last week vs. UCF. Tulsa can be had on the ground, ranking 124th in success rate and 19.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s, so I don’t mind if you want to toss in Brandon Thomas ($4,900) or Jeyvon Ducker ($3,600) in a lineup with Memphis being a touchdown favorite. Just know what to expect with the carry distribution. FWIW – Martin does add value as a pass-catcher with 10 targets in the last two games alone.
Bargain Bin – WR Joe Scates ($4,300) The Iowa State transfer paid off on the main slate last week at his min-pricing, posting 4-38-1 on five targets. We’ve really avoided Memphis pass-catchers in 2022 with the WR1 only accounting for 17% target share on the year. A promising sign last week against UCF that we saw only six players targeted. It appears we saw smaller rotations which might yield better results than we’ve seen in 2022. That puts guys like Eddie Lewis, Gabriel Rogers and Javon Ivory in play where we wouldn’t have even considered them two weeks ago.
Injury Notes – n/a. None that I’m aware of.
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana
Point-Spread: UL -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: UL 31.5 – GSU 28
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia Southern:
Top Play(s) – RB Jalen White ($4,500) Swing and a miss by the DraftKings pricing software as Jalen White is listed at $4.5k despite being the starter over Gerald Green – unless there is some mysterious injury that we do not know about. Overall numbers for the Louisiana rush defense are ok, allowing 16.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 77th in rush play success rate. But this price for White is too cheap not to play for a running back that leads the team in carries, yards and touchdowns. White also has a 25-18 advantage over Green in red-zone attempts in 2022.
To gain access to all of theCFFsite’s exclusive DFS content, as well as Weekly Player Projections, click here to see membership options for the 2022 season.
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.