South Florida vs. UTSA
Point-Spread: UTSA -16.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: UTSA 41.5 – USF 25
Weather: Dome
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Sean Atkins ($5,600) Not surprised at all that a slot receiver is thriving in HC Alex Golesh’s offensive system – the same system that was employed last year at Tennessee under Josh Heupel that led to Jalin Hyatt’s breakout year. 11 or more targets in four of the last five games for Atkins, and game flow should work in his favor here with USF being a double-digit underdog. Top wide receiver on the slate for me not named Lincoln Victor.
Fade – RB Michel Dukes ($4,600) While Dukes has been effective as a runner, averaging over six yards a carry for the season, he’s fallen to RB3 behind Nay’Quan Wright and Kelley Joiner Jr. 12 combined rushing attempts in the last three games.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaden Alexis ($3,600) Light starting to come on for the former Texas transfer with eight receptions combined in the last two games. The redshirt freshman possesses elite track speed and looks to have possibly taken the starting job away from Khafre Brown on the outside. The two are essentially split reps over the last month and a half, but Alexis doubled up Brown on routes run in Week 11 against Temple.
Pivot Play – RB Nay’Quan Wright ($5,300) Outside of the UTSA options, Wright is the only sure thing at the running back position for this slate with 677 rushing yards and six touchdowns this season, averaging 15 touches a game. The Roadrunners are giving up just 14.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but the advanced stats paint a different picture. 64th in rush D success rate and 98th in EPA per run play defensively.
Best of the Rest – QB Byrum Brown ($7,400) Remember back in August when we weren’t even sure that Brown would start over Gerry Bohanon? Kudos to the USF coaching staff for CLEARLY making the correct decision in starting the redshirt freshman who is QB8 in college fantasy football in points scored this season. He’s the top QB option on the board with his elusive running ability that the other three options lack. WR Yusuf Terry ($3,500), in just his first game back since Week 2, ran the second most routes of any USF receiver with six targets last Saturday against Temple.
Injury Notes – WR Michael Brown-Stephens ($4,900) Questionable for Friday with an undisclosed injury. Plays the same position as Yusuf Terry, so if interested in either one, that’d be the injury news to follow.
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – WR Joshua Cephus ($6,000) Safe plays don’t normally help you take down a GPP, but you need some cornerstones in your lineup, and Cephus is probably the safest play of this entire two-gamer. Double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season and the magic number of 30% of UTSA’s target share this season. Six receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against USF this season. Cash games preferred.
Fade – WR Chris Carpenter ($4,500) There were some that though Carpenter would be the WR3 this season for UTSA alongside Cephus and De’Corian Clark, but that has not transpired with just five receptions in six games. Carpenter has run all of two routes in the last two games played alone.
Bargain Bin – WR Devin McCuin ($3,900) The 3-star freshman is second on the team in receptions (30) and third in targets (46) despite missing a game due to injury. McCuin came off the bench last week in place of the injured Willie McCoy, catching four passes on six targets. Sounds like McCuin will be reinserted back into the starting lineup on Friday (see injury notes).
Pivot Play – QB Frank Harris ($7,100) Lowest projected QB of the bunch and probably has the lowest ownership of the four. For as good as Frank Harris has been over his career, the numbers are down in 2023, averaging 60 yards per game less than he did a year ago. Losing your two best receivers in Zakhari Franklin and De’Corian Clark is a big reason as to why. Here’s what this comes down to for Harris – can USF score with the Roadrunners to force the QB1 to pass enough. UTSA run game is rolling right now and could just salt the game away with the three-headed monster in the backfield. With that said, USF allows the single most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. So when playing Harris, I would try and stack with the USF side assuming this is a high-scoring affair.
Best of the Rest – RBs Jumbled mess. At least last week there was the known factor that Kevorian Barnes was out, leading to a two-man backfield of Rocko Griffin and Robert Henry. No such luck this week as Barnes is back atop the depth chart and likely starts on Friday. Last time these three were available at the same time was Week 10 when Barnes/Henry/Griffin had 16, 13, and 10 carries, respectively, against North Texas. Washington State and Colorado can’t run the football worth a damn. And USF has been struggling to gain traction on the ground. So having two UTSA RBs (three might be pushing it) is the play. WR Tykee Ogle-Kellogg ($5,000) is second on the team in targets (49), touchdowns (6) and routes run, playing the De’Corian Clark role from last year as the team’s big-play threat, averaging 17.6 YPC. TE Oscar Cardenas ($3,500) has not been the impact pass-catcher some expected him to be with the defections at receiver, but he came alive this time last year with 13 targets in his final two games. South Florida has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends.
Injury Notes – WR Willie McCoy ($3,400) The former JUCO transfer had a scary neck injury against Rice last week, but the prognosis is positive, and McCoy should be ok moving forward. Still doesn’t sound promising for this week as far as availability.
Colorado vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: WSU -4.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: WSU 34.5 – Col 30
Weather: 37 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – QB Shedeur Sanders (8,700) The thought initially was that Pat Shurmur moving to play-caller over Sean Lewis would result in Colorado being a bit more balanced on offense. And to be fair, that’s been true…barely. Instead of 45 times a game, Sanders is throwing the football 35 and 39 attempts over the last two games with Shurmur calling the shots, and Colorado still ranks 8th nationally in pass play percentage. 35+ times remains the expectation for Sanders here as a 4.5-point underdog. Washington State is far better against the pass than the run this season, allowing just 16.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, so I’d probably have Sanders as my third or fourth option.
Fade – RBs. The worst rushing team in FBS football. And they split the carries three ways. No thanks. IF you decided to play one of Anthony Hankerson, Sy’veon Wilkerson or Dylan Edwards, here is the argument – Washington State is allowing the 15th most fantasy points in the country to running backs and 107th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – RB Sy’veon Wilkerson ($4,000) Piggybacking on the final sentence above, it appears (if Pro Football Focus is correct) that Wilkerson did get the start last week against Arizona, resulting in seven rushing attempts and a touchdown. Not investing much in Colorado RBs, but he’s cheap and the Wazzu run defense stinks.
Pivot Play – TE Michael Harrison ($4,200) Targets and snaps have dwindled since Travis Hunter returned from injury. Just six targets in the last two weeks. Again, here is the only argument – Wazzu allows the 4th most fantasy points in the country to tight ends.
Best of the Rest – WRs. I really wish I could add something here that’s not already known. Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr. and Xavier Weaver continue to dominate the snaps and targets. And it’s a mixed bag looking back at which receivers have succeeded this season against the Cougars. Top 6 scoring WRs to face Wazzu – three boundary receivers and three slot receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – WR Lincoln Victor ($6,300) Not much explanation needed. Victor will surpass 100 targets on Friday and that is with having missed almost two full games due to injury. A combined 60 targets over the last two contests alone.
Fade – RB Nakia Watson ($4,400) This has been a high-volume passing offense the last two seasons, so Watson was never going to be a top priority in DFS or college fantasy, but this was a player that averaged over 15 FPPG last season and was a possible option every week. The former Wisconsin transfer has now fallen into obscurity, carrying the football just two times in each of the last two games. Usually, I like the Senior Day narrative as a possible argument for starting a player, but this isn’t the situation for it.
Bargain Bin – RB Djouvensky Schlenbaker ($3,500) or Leo Pulalasi ($4,000) Didn’t get a chance to check out much from the Cal game, but Schlenbaker and Pulalasi combined for 20 carries and over 100 yards on the ground, effectively ending Watson’s reign as the top back on the roster. Schlenbaker has been wearing what the team is calling a “spaceship helmet” the last few weeks because of his work in between the tackles. He’s also been somewhat prevalent on the passing game since taking over the majority of snaps with nine targets in the last three weeks. Wazzu is 131st in rush play percentage nationally, so there isn’t a need to force either player into your lineup.
Pivot Play – Stacking Wazzu WRs. Maybe not that much of a contrarian idea, but we have a 64.5-point game total and tight spread between two teams that cannot run the football at all. Just a matter of picking the correct preferred option that given week between Josh Kelly and Kyle Williams, because the answer to that isn’t consistent from game to game. Last week it was Kelly with 9-130-1 on 12 targets in the loss to California. We’ve said this before but will reiterate again – Colorado has allowed the second most fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receiver groups.
Best of the Rest – QB Cameron Ward ($8,000) Ward and the entire passing game has been inconsistent in the second half of the season, but the Colorado secondary is a get-right opportunity. 116th in pass D success rate and giving up the third most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. The Buffs have improved over the course of the year, but marginally at best.
Injury Notes – n/a
