Louisville vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Lou -1.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Lou 24 – Mia 22.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 8% rain / 11 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Jawhar Jordan ($7,200) Can’t say I’ll have much exposure at all to any Louisville players as this Cardinals’ offense looks nothing like we expected under HC Jeff Brohm. And that’s not a bad thing…just look at their record. But from a fantasy standpoint, in this matchup specifically against the No. 1 rush defense in the ACC, there isn’t much appeal. The Hurricanes are allowing 14.1 FPPG to RB1s and are No. 8 nationally in rush D success rate. Jordan should be low owned at this price, though.
Fade – QB Jack Plummer ($8,700) Insanity for Plummer to be listed this high for a quarterback that has hit 17 or more fantasy points just twice all season. I do think Louisville will be forced to throw the ball more on Saturday for reasons listed above, but Plummer doesn’t warrant consideration at this pricing with just a 15-point projection. Miami has been much better against the run, but are still 50th in rush D success rate and allowing 15.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not selecting any Louisville players under $7k for my lineups.
Pivot Play – WR Jamari Thrash ($7,400) Quiet day from Thrash against UVA last week as he returned from the wrist injury but did play 40 of 63 offensive snaps which is in line with his normal workload prior to the injury. I’d imagine Thrash will have less than 5% ownership if looking for a high-upside GPP play. As mentioned above, UL will throw more than normal on Saturday we believe, and the Hurricanes are giving up 19.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s. It’s been a while since a breakout Thrash performance.
Best of the Rest – RB Isaac Guerendo ($6,500) Wanted to spotlight Guerendo here because I do believe our current 14.3-point projection is too high and reflective of what I expect on Saturday. Yes, he did find the end-zone with 94 yards rushing against UVA, but 73 of those came on just one run. With Jordan healthy, I expect this to look like the normal backfield splits we’ve seen the majority of the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacolby George ($5,500) George’s numbers last week are a bit deceiving as 85 of the 153 receiving yards did come on a fluke play late against FSU but has been the most consistent among the Miami receivers with eight targets in five of the last six contests. For as good as the Louisville pass defense has been, they will allow some big fantasy performances with four different wideouts scoring at least 18 fantasy points against them this season.
Fade – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($7,400) TVD is thrust back into the starting role after Emory Williams suffered a season-ending injury late last week against Florida State. It would be difficult to trust even the best of quarterbacks against one of the top secondaries in the country in Louisville, let alone one that just recently lost his starting job. Unless that benching lit a fire under TVD, I don’t see him succeeding against this Louisville defense that is giving up just 16.4 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Colbie Young ($4,300) Quarterback play has been the demise of the Miami receivers, as Young has failed to surpass 70 receiving yards in all but one game since Week 2. That said, playing time hasn’t diminished so Young is a cheap option at $4.3k as a receiver that plays over 66% of offensive snaps each week.
Pivot Play – RB Mark Fletcher Jr. ($6,100) For as much attention as the Louisville secondary receivers, the numbers suggest the Cardinals are better against the run, giving up just 11.5 FPPG to running backs and No. 1 nationally in EPA per run play defensively. But we know what Miami wants to attempt to do offensively under Mario Cristobal, and it would really be a mistake to let TVD attempt 35+ passes against this defense. The 4-star freshman averaged just 2.9 YPC last week, but led the team in carries each of the last two games.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Restrepo ($6,600) Remember when Restrepo was the best receiver in college fantasy for a two-week span. That was short lived, now with just 109 receiving yards over the last month, including a shutout against Florida State. Like the other Miami receivers, his playing time hasn’t been altered, and has been targeted at least five times in every game this season. The QB play is not up to par.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma vs. BYU
Point-Spread: OU -24.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: OU 40.5 – BYU 16
Weather: 45 degrees / 41% rain / 5 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,800) Had the pleasure last week of facing Gabriel and his 70 fantasy points in one of my quarterfinal playoff matchups in college fantasy. In no surprise at all, I lost. BYU hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy points this season to quarterbacks but rank 104th in pass D success rate and 84th in EPA per pass play. Don’t see BYU slowing OU down much.
Fade – RB Tawee Walker ($6,200) See below to the Pivot Play section.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering anyone below $5.5k for the Sooners.
Pivot Play – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($5,500) Unless this coaching staff has another surprise for us this year, it appears to be Sawchuk’s backfield for the time being, now with 100+ yards in consecutive games with a season-high 22 rushing attempts vs. West Virginia. An even better statistic? Just one carry went to an OU running back NOT named Gavin Sawchuk. HC Brent Venables spoke this week about a running back finding his groove when discussing Sawchuk and seems as though the coaching staff will ride the hot hand. BYU is allowing 16.7 FPPG to running backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Drake Stoops ($6,800) Strange to hear two seniors that have now played for two seasons together speak on a growing connection between them in the passing game. But that’s the message from both Gabriel and Stoops this week, and the numbers speak for themselves with 22 receptions on 27 targets with four touchdowns in the last two games alone. And guess what? Two highest scoring fantasy producing receivers against BYU this season have been slot receivers. Where does Stoops play? You guessed it. WR Nic Anderson ($6,200) and Jalil Farooq ($6,200) remain secondary options as OU does not rotate at receiver throughout games. All three play over 80% of the offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU:
Top Play(s) – WR Darius Lassiter ($5,000) How in the hell is BYU 5-5 with a chance still for bowl eligibility. 30+ point blowouts the last two weeks and two very mediocre teams in Iowa State and West Virginia, and now face a team in Oklahoma that just pounded the Mountaineers by 39 points. This is really just a full team fade because our top selection is a player that isn’t even cleared to play in Lassiter who is questionable for Saturday. Tied for the team lead in touchdowns (4) despite missing two games in 2023.
Fade – RBs. Looks like we have a split backfield for BYU between Aidan Robbins and LJ Martin when both are healthy which they appear to be. Would lean towards the former because of the price difference if choosing one, but not the matchup to invest in running backs on a team that is a three-touchdown underdog. Oklahoma is 15th in rush D success rate and giving up just 14.0 FPPG to RB1s.
Bargain Bin – TE Isaac Rex ($4,000) Rex found the end-zone for the first time since Week 2 against Iowa State, converting on all three of his targets. Leads the team in routes run, and second in targets (52). Oklahoma has allowed just one tight end to surpass 10 fantasy points this season.
Pivot Play – WR Kody Epps ($5,000) or Chase Roberts ($5,400) Always funny to me that a player like Epps sees a significant price increase on DK despite not doing much at all in his last six games played. Targeted 11 times over the last two games. The 6-foot-4 Roberts leads the Cougars in all receiving categories and has been targeted 20 times in the last two games alone. These two are the primary options if Lassiter is out.
Best of the Rest – QB Jake Retzlaff ($6,300) Maybe at $5.3k we’d give more consideration to Retzlaff who proved he can run at least, with 84 yards on eight attempts vs. Iowa State. But the passing leaves much to be desired, completing well under 50% of his passes against the Cyclones. This Sooners’ secondary is even less forgiving, allowing just 15.6 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – QB Kedon Slovis ($6,200) We have Slovis listed in the projections currently, but I’d be surprised if he played this week against this Oklahoma defense. Was dressed last Saturday, but HC Kilani Sitake stated that they wouldn’t throw Slovis out there unless he’s 100%. And quotes make it sound like he’s not just yet.
Michigan vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: UM -19.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UM 35 – MD 15.5
Weather: 53 degrees / 33% rain / 20 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,400) This is the ramp up game before Ohio State. Expect four quarters from the Michigan offense unless it is a blowout of epic proportions. Maryland is allowing just 13.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but of the two defensive components, the run defense has struggled most in 2023. 63rd in rush D success rate and 95th in EPA per run play.
Fade – n/a. Every regular contributor is an option.
Bargain Bin – WR Semaj Morgan ($3,400) or RB Kalel Mullings ($3,000) or TE AJ Barner ($3,600) Pick your poison. Mullings didn’t get a single carry on Saturday against Penn State, and don’t expect him to get playing time over Donovan Edwards if this matchup is competitive. If the Wolverines jump out to a big lead, Mullings should get some tick in garbage time. Morgan played just five snaps but was targeted twice against Penn State. WR3 is up for grabs between Morgan and Tyler Morris. Barner is too cheap for a tight end that played the most snaps of any Michigan skill player against Penn State.
Pivot Play – RB Donovan Edwards ($4,900) The Don as Gus Johnson has properly dubbed him, Edwards is developing a reputation now of coming through in the clutch during the months of November and December. 52 yards and a touchdown last week against Penn State, now with 27 fantasy points scoring over the last two weeks. Michigan was in this same position two years ago, on the road at Maryland, in the game before THE Game, and blew out the Terps. Edwards had 34 fantasy points in that game. Lightning strike twice?
Best of the Rest – QB J.J. McCarthy ($9,100) Don’t expect 27 straight running plays again this week, and credit to the Michigan coaching staff for noticing immediately they simply could not block the Penn State defensive ends. Steep pricing here for McCarthy that I’ll probably avoid against a Maryland defense that allows 16.2 FPPG to quarterbacks and 19th in EPA per pass play defensively. Anywhere between 18-22 fantasy points is the expectation. I’m surprised by the 10-1 touchdown disparity between WR Roman Wilson ($6,400) and WR Cornelius Johnson ($4,400) given their targets and routes run this season aren’t that dissimilar. Johnson is a strong low-owned GPP pivot. TE Colston Loveland ($4,800) is probably a bit too pricy for my tastes here but was trending up with four touchdowns in the prior four games before the PSU matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – TE Corey Dyches ($4,500) If choosing a tight end from this game, I think I’d lean Dyches over Loveland given the way the former is trending of late. Five or more receptions in each of the last four games with 31 targets in that span. Obviously, Maryland will be throwing on Saturday.
Fade – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,100) Michigan allows the fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. Our 20.2-point projection I think is about five points too high.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone under $4.5k
Pivot Play – WRs. Look, you can chalk some of this up to ineptness in the Big Ten, but yet again, Michigan leads the country in another statistical category, allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. So, we’ll likely just stay away here again, but Maryland has a strong trio of Kaden Prather, Jeshaun Jones and Tai Felton. The issue is there is no target hog, as the group is separated by just six targets. Numbers are nearly identical across the board, so you need to guess correctly here. There really isn’t a weakness in the Michigan secondary, so it is tough to pinpoint even who would be the preferred choice.
Best of the Rest – RB Roman Hemby ($5,500) We’re not interested in Hemby because of his rushing potential against a Michigan defense that also allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs in college football. His ability coming out of the backfield is what is attractive as his usage in the passing game has seen an uptick with 20 of his 36 season-long targets coming in the last four games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -20.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: PSU 31.5 – Rutg 11
Weather: 43 degrees / 37% rain / 17 mph winds
Rutgers:
Just one player is projected to score more than 10 fantasy points for Rutgers this week. I won’t totally dismiss RB1 Kyle Monangai ($4,900) here because he’s very cheap for the volume he receives each week (18.1 att/g), but Penn State is fifth in the country in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs this season. The hope here for lineups with Monangai is that Penn State has given up on the year following the deflating loss to the Wolverines. We’ve also seen slippage of late with the PSU defense, and not just in the Michigan matchup. 24 points allowed and multiple explosive plays against Indiana following the Nittany Lions loss to Ohio State – another deflating loss. Hmm.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($5,800) Throw last game out. You’re not going to succeed when you don’t have the ball on offense and facing the best defense in college football. KLS had been trending upwards prior to last Saturday with six or more receptions in each of the last four games leading up to the Michigan game. 26% target share for Lambert-Smith with the next closest Penn State receiver having just 32 targets.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($7,800) Allar looked broken last week, and having zero help at receiver is a huge detriment to both the sophomore quarterback and this offense. I highly doubt that we’ll see drastic changes on offense this late in the year even with the firing of offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. In my opinion, this is a talent deficit problem on the Penn State offense. The strength of the Rutgers defense is the secondary.
Bargain Bin – TEs. I know I’m a broken record here. 11 combined touchdowns between Tyler Warren and Theo Johnson who rank second and third on the team in both targets and receptions. Rutgers has struggled defending opposing tight ends this season, allowing the 24th most fantasy points in the country to that position.
Pivot Play – RBs. I’m not quite sure what is wrong with the Penn State running game this season. Did not expect these results with Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton in the backfield, along with a future top 10 pick at left tackle. Penn State still grades out well when running the football, ranked 18th in rush play success rate. Just expected that to be top five nationally with the talent on hand. Allen has been the better of the two lately, and Rutgers is an average B1G rush defense, ranking 51st in EPA per rush play and 117th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Dante Cephas ($4,900) Ran the most routes of any Penn State receiver last week against Michigan and will get the start once more with Harrison Wallce out of the lineup. Had two touchdowns against Maryland in Week 10.
Injury Notes – WR Harrison Wallce ($5,100) Declared out already on Monday by James Franklin.
Appalachian State vs. James Madison
Point-Spread: JMU -9.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: JMU 28 – App St 18.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 8% rain / 11 mph winds
Appalachian State:
Top Play(s) – QB Joey Aguilar ($7,500) Would you believe it if I told you that Joey Aguilar is QB13 in College Fantasy in terms of points scored this season? I couldn’t believe it myself considering most didn’t expect him to be the starter even coming into the year. The junior quarterback surpassed all expectations, though, scoring 24 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season, with 30 or more fantasy points in each of the last three games. We know James Madison is dominant against the run, but no slouches against the pass either, ranking 17th in pass D success rate and allowing just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Nate Noel ($6,500) Just can’t do it on a Main Slate against this defense. The Dukes allow just 11.5 FPPG to RB1s and are still No. 1 in rush D success rate in the country. To add insult to injury (he’s healthy), rushing attempts are WAY down for Noel since coming back from injury with a combined 26 carries in the last four games. That was his seasonal average per game prior to the injury. App State seems content on spreading the ball around in the backfield now.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaedin Robinson ($4,900) We usually look for cheaper options for our Bargain Bin selections, but this one makes all the sense in the world. For some odd reason, Robinson is the cheapest of the starting wide receivers for App State despite leading the team in targets (55), receptions (41), touchdowns (6) and routes run. If you’re choosing an App State wideout, this is an easy choice.
Pivot Play – WR Christan Horn ($5,900) Not the situation to risk playing an App State receiver – that is more appropriate for a three-game slate rather than a main slate. But Horn will see less than 1% ownership on Saturday because he ran just two routes last week against Georgia State. Per the App State beat writer, Horn’s shoulder is fine and should be g2g for Saturday. Second on the team in targets and touchdowns, despite playing one fewer game due to injuries.
Best of the Rest – WR Dalton Stroman ($3,400) An App State fan would have better perspective on Stroman’s viability for Saturday. Tough to decipher from an outsider perspective as the 6-foot-4 junior is fourth on the team in routes run, but his production has been very sporadic the last three weeks. Zero receptions on zero targets against Marshall despite playing most of the game yet had 93 yards and a TD last week against Georgia State. WR Dashaun Davis ($5,100) will also have less than 1% ownership on Saturday. I’ll admit this is a HUGE risk. But if you’re entering 150 lineups, I’d include him in one. JMU is allowing the 12th most fantasy points in the country to wide receivers. Four highest scoring WRs have all played in the slot. Guess where Davis plays?
Injury Notes – n/a. App State beat writer said the Mountaineers came out of last week’s contest in good shape.
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($5,500) Easy choice here for top play. While Reggie Brown got the attention last week with 202 yards receiving with two scores, Sarratt had a perfect catch rate with 13 receptions on 13 targets for 170 yards. The former St. Francis transfer has emerged as the team’s WR1 with eight or more targets in each of the last five games.
Fade – n/a. All regular contributors are an option for JMU.
Bargain Bin – WR Phoenix Sproles ($3,600) Sproles is a distant third behind Sarratt and WR Reggie Brown ($5,600) from a production standpoint. On-field playing time, Sproles is right in line with the other starters. At least three receptions in each of the last five games. While WRs only average around 15.1 FPPG against App State this season, they’re also scoring just over seven fantasy points more per game in their matchups with the Mountaineers.
Pivot Play – QB Jordan McCloud ($8,300) We’ve sung McCloud’s praises this year as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the country. Give HC Curt Cignetti the designation as a QB whisperer after turning failed P5 quarterbacks like McCloud and last year with Todd Centeio into household names in college fantasy. Can’t discount McCloud as an option, but Appalachian State has been good against the pass this year, allowing just 16 FPPG and 37th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RBs. While not needed in the 44-6 drubbing of Connecticut, the running game was abysmal last week between Ty’Son Lawton and Kaelon Black, rushing for just 52 yards as a team. Weakness on weakness this Saturday as the App State run defense is one of the worst in the country, allowing the 24th most fantasy points to running backs. 50-50 split here, so either Lawton or Black are an option, but a risk given the time share and inability for James Madison to generate a consistent run game. TE Zach Horton ($4,900) is fourth on the team in targets but has found the end-zone three times in the last two weeks alone.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah vs. Arizona
Point-Spread: Utah -1.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Utah 24 – Ariz 22.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 55% rain / 10 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,300) Will Utah need to throw it 30 times this week in one of the lower game totals on the slate? Rain in the forecast could mean a slower-paced game which suits the playing style of Jackson, assuming he stays healthy which he’s seemingly yet to do in a game all year. The Wildcats have also been better than expected in the trenches this season, ranked 7th in EPA per rush play defensively, and giving up just 16 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – RB Sione Vaki ($5,300) Major risk to play Vaki and probably doesn’t get more playing time on the offensive side of the ball unless Utah suffers an injury in the backfield (not uncommon with Ja’Quinden Jackson on the roster). Just seven offensive snaps last week against Washington, six of which in the passing game as Vaki had just one carry. To his credit, Vaki converted on all four of his targets for 67 yards and a TD, but this is too risky a play for my liking in a game where Utah is favored.
Bargain Bin – TE Landen King ($3,400) The former Auburn transfer is the man now at tight end with Kuithe and Thomas Yassmin out for the season, with nine of his 13 season-long targets coming in the last two games. Arizona is allowing 6.0 FPPG to tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Devaughn Vele ($5,100) Late-season emergence from the junior receiver who’s always had the talent, but limited opportunities to catch the football in a run-based scheme. Nearly 50% of his 56 targets have come in the last three weeks alone, hitting a season-high 145 yards in the loss to Washington last week. The Wildcats allow just 15.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, but don’t grade out well in the secondary, ranking 78th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Bryson Barnes ($7,200) Barnes is averaging 20.1 FPPG over the last five weeks and seems to be gaining confidence with each passing start. Two costly interceptions against Washington last week, though, and is fully capable of a clunker like we saw in Week 9 vs. Oregon with just 3.8 fantasy points scored. Arizona is holding quarterbacks to 3.76 fantasy points below their seasonal averages in their respective matchups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Tet McMillan ($6,800) Four wideouts have scored 22 or more fantasy points against the Utes this season, including last week where Washington’s Rome Odunze who went for 111 yards and two scores. McMillan is right on par talent-wise with anyone in the county (Marvin Harrison Jr. aside), as the 6-foot-5 sophomore is nearing his first 100-target season, now with 854 yards and eight touchdowns in his second year. Has scored a TD in each of the last three games, including a season high nine catches on 15 targets against Colorado last week.
Fade – RB Jonah Coleman ($5,000) See Pivot Play below. Some risk involved here against a Utah defense that allows just 12.9 FPPG to RB1s.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner McLachlan ($3,900) McLachlan ranks third on the team in targets (39) and tied for 15th nationally among tight ends in receptions (31). Utah is allowing just 5.2 FPPG to tight ends this season, a strong mark considering this is the year of the Tight End in the Pac-12 with so many top fantasy options.
Pivot Play – RB Michael Wiley ($4,300) Most coaches say you can never lose a starting spot due to injury. Not the case at Arizona where Wiley has been relegated to RB2 since coming back from a foot injury, being mostly used on passing downs. Talk on the Arizona boards from the team beat writer said that Wiley could get the start on Saturday because of Senior Day festivities. The question then becomes, does he get a series and give way to Coleman at some point? Not sure it’ll matter that much against this Utah front, but something to keep in mind.
Best of the Rest – QB Noah Fifita ($6,800) Last week was the premier matchup with a terrible Colorado defense and Fifita underwhelmed, scoring just 20 fantasy points in the win. The sophomore QB is now priced up $800, facing a Utah defense that is allowing the 17th fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks, and is a non-runner. I won’t have much exposure. WR Jacob Cowing ($6,700) has found the end-zone in each of the last two weeks but came out of last week’s contest in the second half due to injury. HC Jedd Fisch said that Cowing should be fine, but worth some monitoring. He’s a DraftKings option only in full-point PPR scoring, averaging just 7.8 yards per catch. He’ll cross the 100-target barrier for the third straight season on Saturday which is an impressive feat.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -6.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Clem 33 – UCN 26
Weather: 69 degrees / 3% rain / 8 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($7,300) Has there been a better fantasy running back in the country over the last five weeks? Hampton has scored 30 or more fantasy points in four of the last five games, but this will be the biggest challenge yet against a Clemson front that is allowing just 13.6 FPPG to RB1s. Working in Hampton’s favor is the guaranteed volume – 31-1 edge over British Brooks last week in rushing attempts. Secondly, Hampton displayed his versatility against the Blue Devils last Saturday with eight receptions on nine targets. In competitive matchups, Hampton’s increased usage in the passing game is notable.
Fade – WR Nate McCollum ($6,400) Pretty easy choice here. McCollum’s playing time has been cut in half the last month or so as he’s been less than 100% health wise. Just six targets in his last two games played, and will be matched up with Clemson nickel back Andrew Mukuba who grades out as the fourth best slot corner in the ACC.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody worth considering for UNC under $5k.
Pivot Play – TE Bryson Nesbit ($5,000) Nesbit has been one of the best fantasy-producing tight ends in the country in the last month with three touchdowns in the last four games with a combined 328 receiving yards. 10 targets in each of the last two games as he’s seen his playing time increase in the slot with McCollum being banged up. Just two ACC tight ends have scored more than 10 fantasy points against the Tigers this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Drake Maye ($9,600) and WR Devontez Walker ($8,100) Because of their pricing, I’d probably only stack these two together in hopes the pairing goes off in a potential shootout. The likelihood of that occurring isn’t high probability as the Tigers are No. 1 nationally in EPA per pass play defensively and No. 4 in pass D success rate. Just two quarterbacks this season have scored more than 17 fantasy points against Clemson. While we expect Maye to surpass 20 fantasy points, him putting up GPP winning numbers is probably unlikely. If playing one of the two solo, it would be Walker as wide receivers have had some success against this secondary. Four wideouts have scored 19 or more fantasy points against Clemson in 2023.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,300) I wish I could select one of the Clemson RBs here, but that’s now a jumbled mess with co-starters at the position. Klubnik had his best performance of the season last week in the win over Georgia Tech, tossing four touchdowns while completing 68% of his passes. And now gets a matchup with a defense trending in the wrong direction. UNC is allowing just 18.3 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but the three highest-scoring performances have all come in the last month with Haynes King (35 fpts), Tyler Van Dyke (29 fpts) and Grayson Loftis (26 fpts). Good opportunity for Klub to build on last week’s success.
Fade – WR Troy Stellato ($4,400) Stellato has overtaken Adam Randall as the team’s WR3, but the production doesn’t warrant consideration at $4.4k. Just two targets last week and fewer than 40 receiving yards in each of the last six games. High volume is needed if your aDOT is just 5.6 yards and Stellato is averaging just four targets a game in the last month and a half.
Bargain Bin – TE Josh Sapp ($3,000) The redshirt freshman tight end moved up a spot on the depth chart with the season-ending injury to Sage Ennis and played well last week with two receptions and a touchdown on two targets. Dabo Swinney complimented the redshirt freshman and said he’ll be more involved in the offense moving forward. Played 18 snaps last week which was the most all season for Sapp.
Pivot Play – RBs. I wish we could play one of Will Shipley or Phil Mafah, going against a horrific UNC run defense that is 89th in success rate and giving up the 34th most fantasy points in the country to running backs. But it was a near dead-even split between the two last week. 40-36 edge for Mafah in terms of snaps played and had a 17-11 advantage in rushing attempts. Shipley’s usage in the passing game was still there with three receptions on four targets. Don’t think either player will hurt your lineup, but the 50-50 split will.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyler Brown ($4,900) Slot receivers have dominated this UNC defense all season. Four of the top six wideouts to score the most fantasy points against the Tar Heels in 2023 all play inside, with each scoring at least 25 fantasy points in their respective matchups. The true freshman had a bounce back performance last week, converting on all seven of his targets for 41 yards and a touchdown.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -24.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: ND 35.5 – WF 11
Weather: 46 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Wake Forest:
No player projected to score more than nine fantasy points this week with Wake Forest having the lowest implied team total on the slate. WR Ke’Shawn Williams ($4,400) has actually been better with backup quarterbacks than he has with Mitch Griffis with 18 receptions on 19 targets over the last four games. He’s the only Wake player deserving of minimal consideration.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($8,000) Because who else are you going to play? Estime has found the end-zone nine times in Notre Dame’s five matchups of beating opponents by 20 points or more this season, and this is likely the final time Estime puts on an Irish jersey in front of the home crowd. Wake Forest is not a pushover defensively, allowing just 15.1 FPPG to RB1s and 33rd in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Tobias Merriweather ($3,400) Merriweather could be sub-$3k and still wouldn’t roster him as he’s lost his starting spot if the Clemson game was any indication. Routes run have significantly declined over the last month to where the sophomore is only on the field 40% of the time. OC Gerad Parker even mentioned to the media this week that he’s been forced to play Jaden Greathouse out of position because of ND’s struggles in finding good outside receivers. Prime transfer candidate this offseason.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Greathouse ($3,400) On the same note, Greathouse is the one whose overtaken Merriweather in the starting lineup, though he does not have a reception in the last four games played. Season-high 66% of snaps against Clemson in Week 10, and I expect several of the younger players like Greathouse to get significant playing time in this lost season for the Irish.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Hartman ($7,500) Zero passing touchdowns in the last two games for Hartman who is clearly missing his top weapon in tight end Mitchell Evans who was lost for the season to injury. The $7.5k price tag is intriguing coming out of the bye week, with Wake Forest allowing 20.6 FPPG to quarterbacks. It’s not an impressive list either of QBs that have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Deacons this year – Christian Veilleux, Kyron Drones, AJ Swann, and Brennan Armstrong.
Best of the Rest – WRs. This was a position of weakness coming into the year and remains that way still in Week 12 as the Irish will have to hit the portal hard in the offseason to find better talent. WR Chris Tyree ($4,400) has been the most productive of the bunch, scoring 36 fantasy points in the last three games, but is now splitting time in the slot with WR Jordan Faison ($3,100) who’s being utilized in a similar fashion as a hybrid WR/RB. WR Rico Flores Jr. ($4,100) has run the most routes of any ND receiver over the last five weeks, but minimal production to show for it with less than 40 yards in four of the five games. Six receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Wake Forest this season, so wouldn’t shock to see someone have a big game among the group.
Injury Notes – WR Jayden Thomas ($4,200) Questionable for Saturday after not playing in the last two games and hasn’t been effective even when on the field. Easy fade.
UCLA vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -6.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: USC 36 – UCLA 29.5
Weather: 66 degrees / 87% rain / 9 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Carson Steele ($6,400) No wonder Chip Kelly appears on the outs after scoring just seven points last week in the loss to Arizona State. I’d normally bypass this offense entirely but we’re still getting a projected four touchdowns from Vegas so we should look for some possible pieces. This is a 55-45 split backfield the last few weeks with Steele and TJ Harden, though the former continues to start each week. USC continues to give up chunks on the ground, allowing the third most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Fade – QBs Ethan Garbers is likely back in the saddle after missing last week’s contest, as it was said he’s moving around better in practices this week. Collin Schlee will not play, so that does limit the chances in which Garbers would potentially be replaced at any point. USC allows the 15th most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks if you feel this is a pivot opportunity, I can understand that rationale. If Fernando Mendoza and Bryson Barnes can light up this defense, Garbers should be capable of doing the same. But would you be surprised at all if Dante Moore came in for a series or two?
Bargain Bin – WR Ryan Cragun ($3,000) I’m honestly unsure of who this player is, but UCLA is searching for any answers at all at the wide receiver position. Cragun ran the second most routes of any UCLA receiver last week and was targeted four times.
Pivot Play – RB TJ Harden ($4,900) Harden doesn’t start but continues to see anywhere between 9-12 carries each week. Should Steele struggle out of the gates, we already have evidence to where the Bruins will ride the hot hand in the backfield, and you’d think they can churn out yards against the USC front.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Logan Loya, for better or worse, has been the most effective receiver for UCLA this season, and has put up better numbers when Garbers is under center. This is not the season we expected out of J. Michael Sturdivant, who we anticipated having a Jake Bobo-like season with close to 1,000 yards. He might not even crack half of that at this rate. Playing time hasn’t diminished even though the production has. $3.9k for a starting receiver against USC is enticing, though. WR1s are averaging 23.3 FPPG against the Trojans in 2023.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams ($10,900) Nothing to play for on the USC side except for bragging rights in the city of Los Angeles, which makes this a difficult game to project. Do I believe it is worth $10.9k for Caleb Williams in his final game with the Trojans? No, the consensus QB1 in college fantasy has underwhelmed this season, failing to score 40 fantasy points in a game since Week 5. But that just means less ownership for GPPs. One interesting note on the UCLA defense – the Bruins are 126th in pass plays allowed per game, so wouldn’t shock us to see Williams air it out on Saturday to impress the NFL scouts one final time.
Fade – WR Dorian Singer ($5,400) and Mario Williams ($5,800) We’ve faded all season, why not once more? The highly touted duo coming into the year ran the fewest routes of any USC receivers last week against Oregon. Neither player will be in a USC uniform next season, so not expecting much in USC’s finale.
Bargain Bin – WR Duce Robinson ($3,300) What does a season finale with nothing to play for represent? A good chance for some freshman to see extended playing time. The 5-star receiver saw his most on-field action since Week 2 against Oregon, catching two passes for 46 yards on three targets.
Pivot Play – WR Tahj Washington ($7,000) or Brenden Rice ($6,500) For a team that rotates 7-8 receivers at a time, Washington and Rice have been the two constants in the room, tied for the team lead with 59 targets a piece and 17 of the team’s 30 receiving TDs. Wouldn’t stack the two together, given how dispersed the targets are for the Trojans, but this UCLA secondary has been vulnerable the second half of the year. Six receivers have scored 18 or more fantasy points against the Bruins this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Marshawn Lloyd ($6,000) Not a lot of interest here in Lloyd because USC has simply stopped running the football the last two games with a combined 40 carries. Split those three ways between Austin Jones and Caleb Williams, and that’s not a lot of opportunities to rack up fantasy points. UCLA is stout against the run too, allowing the third fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: UGA -10.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UGA 34.5 – Tenn 24
Weather: 57 degrees / 3% rain / 11 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Daijun Edwards ($7,500) Tennessee was a top 25 rush defense in terms of fantasy points allowed prior to last week, ranking 14th in rush D success rate. That was until Cody Schrader’s dominant performance with over 300 total yards of offense in Missouri’s victory over the Vols. Daijun Edwards has been the most consistent option on the Georgia offense this season, finding the end-zone multiple times in over half the games played this season. Georgia is also finding its traction on the ground lately, ranking 12th in rush success rate and 7th in EPA per run play.
Fade – WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($4,900) So I find it interesting last week that MRJ doubled the snap counts of WR Ladd McConkey ($6,500). Chalking that up to a blowout scenario with the Bulldogs attempting to preserve the health of one of their top playmakers on offense. Even with the increased playing time, Rosemy-Jacksaint caught all of one pass on one single target.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing any UGA players under $5k.
Pivot Play – TE Brock Bowers ($7,500) Time to admit that Bowers is superman. Not only did Bowers play in his first game back from injury, but was in on 45 of the 53 offensive snaps in the blowout win over Ole Miss. I would say that $7.5k is too much for a tight end, but maybe we need to stop designating him as such. I’d also designate RB Kendall Milton ($5,800) as a top pivot play as he’s finding his footing coming back from injury, rushing for 127 yards and two scores. Milton has now found the end-zone in five straight games.
Best of the Rest – QB Carson Beck ($9,000) Same stance as last week. Beck will do nothing to kill your lineups, scoring 18 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season. Upside is lacking, particularly with the Georgia run game trending upwards. The Vols are allowing just 14.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. WR Dominic Lovett ($5,300) is always an option, tied for first on the team in targets (55) and first in routes run, but his numbers of late were boosted by Brock Bowers’ absence. Lovett doesn’t have the same impact when the TE1 is in the lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylen Wright ($5,400) I’m no coach, but this has to be the play this week if Tennessee has any chance of succeeding against UGA and keeping this thing close. You’re not asking Joe Milton to drop back 30+ times against this secondary with limited options at receiver. Lean on your best offensive player in Wright, who has four 100-yard rushing performances in the last six games. The issue is the three best rush defenses faced this season – Alabama, Florida and Missouri – Wright had dud performances. Speaks to my interest from anyone on the Vols side.
Fade – QB Joe Milton ($7,500) The only vote of confidence I can give for possibly using Milton on this slate is if he plays like he did in the first half against Alabama, utilizing both his arm and legs effectively. 10+ carries is a must for Milton with a depleted receiving corps facing this defense so that at least lifts his floor a bit from a fantasy production standpoint. Georgia is only allowing 14.2 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaleb Webb ($3,100) With Dont’e Thornton out for the season, it comes down to Kaleb Webb or Chas Nimrod as the replacement starting outside opposite Ramel Keyton. Based on last week’s matchup with Missouri, it would appear Webb has the inside track here, running eight more passing routes than Nimrod, with a 5-3 edge in targets.
Pivot Play – WR Squirrel White ($5,900) Aside from Wright, the sophomore slot receiver is the only offensive player that can threaten the UGA defense. Team lead in targets (70), receptions (49) and yards (649) that should be amplified even more with Thornton and Bru McCoy out for the season. Three of the top four scoring receivers to face UGA this year play in the slot, so White has that working in his favor, but the Dawgs allow just 13 FPPG to WR1s this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Ramel Keyton ($4,500) Keyton is cheap and on the field a ton…that’s the argument. First in routes run and second in targets (50), but a 56% catch rate with three drops doesn’t inspire confidence. Keyton is the team’s top deep threat with an 18.7 aDOT, and we would need one big scoring play to pay off his salary.
Injury Notes – WR Dont’e Thornton ($3,600) Thornton will miss the remainder of the regular season but could return for Tennessee’s bowl game potentially.
Oklahoma State vs. Houston
Point-Spread: OSU -6.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: OSU 33 – Hou 26.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($8,800) Folks were burned by the Ollie Gordon play last week that we’ll just chalk up to an “off game.” Oklahoma State was in a hole for the entirety of the game, and Gordon was dealing with a nagging injury that forced him off the field multiple times. He’s good to go for Saturday in what is, on paper, another VERY favorable matchup. Houston allows the fifth most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Fade – Non-starters. Broken record here, but we’re not considering anyone beyond the QB1, RB1 and top three receivers. Oklahoma State does not rotate beyond the top-line starters.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering anyone below $4.5k for the Cowboys.
Pivot Play – QB Alan Bowman ($7,100) I’ll side with fading Bowman, but a 20-point projection at $7.1k keeps him in the realm of possibilities with what feels like a potential shootout matchup. Of the defensive components, Houston is far better on the backend, giving up just 19 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Advanced metrics do not paint a pretty picture, though. 118th in pass D success rate and 112th in EPA per pass play. Bowman should find some level of success.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The situation remains the same here as it has for the last several weeks. 31 of the 38 targets last week against UCF went to either Rashod Owens, Leon Johnson III or Brennan Presley. I tend to look toward which architype of receiver has found most success in these types of scenarios, but it’s been a mix of boundary and slot receivers that have produced fantasy points against this Houston secondary. If game-stacking, multiple OK-State receivers in the same lineup does have merit.
Injury Notes – WR Jaden Bray ($4,600) Has not played in three weeks and was not seen in warmups prior to the UCF game. Would not consider even if he was in uniform.
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Donovan Smith ($7,900) The “lows” Smith has are infuriating, and he’s had a few clunkers here in the last three weeks, tossing three interceptions in the loss to Cincinnati last week. The concern here is that Houston has simply mailed it in for the year with a dead man walking situation at head coach. The pricing and projection keeps Smith in play here, though. Most intriguing is that Smith has run the ball 33 times in the last two weeks.
Fade – RB Parker Jenkins ($4,900) The most effective runner, when Houston does run the football, has been Donovan Smith. Houston is 115th nationally in rush play percentage. Unless the coaching staff surprisingly flips the script and decides keeping the ball on the ground is the pathway to success, Jenkins won’t see the volume necessary to be an option. Oklahoma State is mediocre across the board defensively, allowing 18.3 FPPG to RB1s this season and 42nd in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalton Carnes ($3,400) Carnes enters the starting lineup in place of the injured Matthew Golden, but the results were minimal, catching one pass on three targets. Dana Holgorsen made the comment this week that he was disappointed more receivers didn’t step up this season despite hitting the transfer portal hard in the offseason. Wouldn’t surprise us to see Stephon Johnson Jr. or Joshua Cobbs get more run this week in search of a spark. Johnson, the Oklahoma State transfer (narrative), was targeted four times against Cincy.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($5,600) Manjack has now found the end-zone in each of the last four games he’s played in, catching two touchdowns last Saturday as the team’s lone bright spot. Slot receivers have done damage to this Oklahoma State secondary with Caullin Lacy, Daniel Jackson, Drake Stoops and Jaylin Noel all scoring 27 or more fantasy points against the Cowboys.
Best of the Rest – WR Samuel Brown ($6,400) Probably wouldn’t stack the Houston receivers, but he and Manjack combined for 12 of the 27 targets last week. Team leader in every receiving category aside from touchdowns.
Injury Notes – WR Matthew Golden ($3,000) Golden will miss the remainder of the season with a foot injury. The intriguing storyline coming out was that Golden has already received offers/interest from SEC schools to enter the portal. Classic SEC tampering. Was this the last we’ve seen Golden in a Houston uniform?
Oregon vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: Oreg -23.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Oreg 38.5 – ASU 15
Weather: 75 degrees / 71% rain / 11 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – QB Bo Nix ($10,800) Michael Penix Jr had his Heisman moment when beating these same Oregon Ducks a few weeks ago. Dillon Gabriel, although likely eliminated, had eight touchdowns last week. Jayden Daniels ran circles around the Florida defense, putting up 500 total yards of offense. Time for Nix’s resume to get a boost as he’s still well within range of taking home that coveted trophy. The Sun Devils have been better than anticipated this season defensively, allowing just 19.5 FPPG to quarterbacks, and the implied team total isn’t what I expected here, so fading Nix at his price is also a possibility as there are plenty of QB options on the slate.
Fade – WR Traeshon Holden ($5,100) and WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($4,500) There’s some separation atop the Oregon WR group with the Alabama transfer falling behind a bit. Still third on the team in targets (39), but he’s run the fewest routes among the top four receivers in each of the last five games, scoring double-digit fantasy points just twice in that span. Holden probably should be $4.5k based on his production. Bryant runs a lot of routes, but nothing to show for it with less than 25 receiving yards in each of the last five games.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($4,200) Lowest I would go for an Oregon player who is now third on the team in receptions (33) and routes run. Arizona State is allowing just 5.2 FPPG to tight ends this season with Utah’s Landen King being the only one to score double-digit fantasy points.
Pivot Play – RB Jordan James ($5,500) Been a few down weeks for James lately, failing to rush for more than 50 yards in the last three games, with last week being just the second time all year James failed to score double-digit fantasy points. ASU is below-average defending the run this season, ranked 102nd in rush D success rate, but another surprising stat in that the Sun Devils don’t give up a ton of fantasy points to RBs. Jadyn Ott is the only running back to score more than 18 fantasy points against ASU in 2023.
Best of the Rest – Oregon Star Power. We kind of know what to expect at this point right? 80 yards, three receptions and a touchdown is the absolute floor for Bucky Irving. Troy Franklin leads the team in every single receiving category with 24% target share and a third of the team’s receiving touchdowns. And then there’s Tez Johnson who’s arguably been the best fantasy receiver in the country the last two games with a combined 79 points scored on 24 targets. ASU is allowing the 18th most fantasy points in the country to wide receivers, so it is imperative to have one of Franklin and/or Johnson in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($5,900) Ultimate Swiss army knife that does whatever is asked of him. 61 yards on 12 rushing attempts last week against UCLA. Third on the team with 23 receptions on 31 targets. Skattebo also threw his first touchdown pass of the season last week on eight attempts in 2023. Oregon also grades out very well against the run, allowing just 11.3 FPPG to RB1s and 32nd in rush D success rate, but the versatility is what’s appealing for Skattebo.
Fade – QB Trenton Bourguet ($6,500) Less than 13 fantasy points scored in each of the last four games, and Arizona State went to desperate measures last week, having three different players attempt a pass in the win over UCLA. While Bourguet is taking all of the first-team reps, it also doesn’t sound like he’s 100 percent healthy which isn’t surprising with his 190-pound frame. Oregon is 18th in pass D success rate, giving up just 16 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Troy Omeire ($3,100) If you’re the type to love having a min priced punt play in your top lineup, Omeire is the selection for you this week. The former 4-star Texas transfer has run the most routes of any ASU receiver over the last three games and has now been targeted 20 times in the last month. Doesn’t have the production to warrant a roster spot, and this isn’t the best matchup, but Omeire is on the field a bunch.
Pivot Play – WR Elijah Badger ($5,700) With questions at quarterback and the less than stellar matchup, I likely won’t have much exposure, if at all, to Badger. But as shown last week, he has slate-breaking upside, now with four games of 11 or more targets. For as good as the Oregon defense grades out, they are allowing the 21st most fantasy points in the country to wide receivers. I’d imagine a lot of that comes in garbage time…but points are points.
Best of the Rest – TE Jalin Conyers ($4,200) This late in the year you tend to lose track of certain players on bad teams that haven’t lived up to their billing as a fantasy prospect. And Conyers fits the bill here, once thought of as a Top 10 fantasy tight end in the preseason but has yet to score a single receiving touchdown in 2023. Had a season-low in routes run last week against UCLA, but probably because he spent some time at quarterback, throwing a pair of passes. In a conference full of talented tight ends, the Ducks have allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points in the country to that position.
Injury Notes – QB Jaden Rashada ($4,500) I was hoping that we’d get to see the 4-star freshman back in the lineup this week, but the coaching staff made it pretty clear to not expect Rashada to play on Saturday. He’s only played in two games this season, so it’s a possibility we see him in the finale vs. Arizona.
