Florida State @ Florida
Point-Spread: Florida -2.5
O/U Total: 59
Weather: 63 degrees / 2% rain / 5 mph winds
Florida:
Conflicting Report Szn! Original report came out from the Gainsville Sun on Wednesday suggesting that Anthony Richardson would be the starting QB vs. FSU, that information has now be amended to “could start” as Emory Jones did practice on Wednesday. With Mullen out of the picture, I hope the administration steps in and demands we get Richardson on Saturday, if for any reason to find out whether or not the sophomore quarterback is a true building block for the new coaching staff. If we get word that Richardson is healthy and the starter, he’s locked in for me at $6k against a Florida State defense that is allowing 31.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Three-way split in the backfield with Dameon Pierce, Malik Davis and Nay’Quan Wright. Point per dollar, Wright is probably the best play here at min salary with him seeing an uptick in snap counts over the second half of the season, and did out-carry both Pierce/Davis against Missouri. Pierce is the highest-projected RB of the trio, but don’t think he makes a ton of sense here at $6k if they’re splitting carries three ways. Top three are receiver were pretty established against Missouri with Justin Shorter, Jacob Copeland and Trent Whittemore dominating the snap counts. Sporadic production for all three over the course of the year, but recency bias favors Copeland here as he was targeted 12 times vs. the Tigers. TE Kemore Gamble won’t be breaking any slates and has had a few goose eggs this season, but is averaging five targets per game over the last five weeks.
Florida State:
Projections suggest we should lock in QB Jordan Travis at $6,900 who got a price drop after throwing three touchdowns last week at Boston College. Gut instinct had me locking in Travis at this price-point against a beleaguered Florida team that just gave up 416 passing yards to Samford two weeks ago and now doesn’t have a head coach. But the secondary had a bounce back performance against Missouri last Saturday, holding the Tigers to just 165 yards through the air and one TD. That’s reminiscent of how the Gators’ secondary has performed in the second half, limiting six of the last seven opponents to under 200 passing yards. On the season, opposing QB1s are averaging just 17.7 FPPG. Travis is always in the player pool of available options because of his usage on the ground, but don’t be shocked if he struggles throwing the football.
Jashaun Corbin’s pricing continues to fall, and for good reason as we’ve suggested previously with Travis inserted into the lineup. Averaging just 58 yards per game on the ground with Travis as the starter, and we’re seeing a 60-40 split between Corbin and backup Treshaun Ward. On the ground is where Florida is most vulnerable, allowing 19.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but Travis prohibits the running backs from producing big numbers as this season has indicated. Never advisable to play a Florida State wide receiver, so for me, it’s Travis or bust with the Seminoles here.
Ohio State @ Michigan
Point-Spread: OSU -8
O/U Total: 64.5
Weather: 34 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Ohio State:
I’m not sure that I can rationally speak on this game given my fandom towards the Maize and Blue. C.J. Stroud projects well, as he should, given how the redshirt freshman has performed of late with 11 passing touchdowns in the last two weeks. And this game total continues to rise as the week goes along, so points are to be expected on Saturday. But this will be Stroud’s toughest test to date as Michigan allows just 16.4 FPPG to opposing QBs and will get after him with arguably the best pair of bookends in the country with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. Four times this season, Stroud was sacked at least twice in a game. In three of those games, his fantasy point totals were 19, 8 and 33. If Michigan can get pressure on the young QB, he will not reach value this week. I do think TreVeyon Henderson could potentially be a strong pivot here as the Michigan run defense can be exposed at times as we saw with Kenneth Walker. While Ojabo is a tremendous pass rusher, teams will typically run to his side on defense. And Henderson is no match for the Michigan linebackers in the screen game. I’ve got overs on 72.5 for rushing yards on Prize Picks currently, so I am confident in Henderson having a good performance Saturday. Whichever Ohio State receiver I tout, its going to be the other one(s) that go off so I’ll refrain from making a choice between Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Michigan has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs, and since it’s a fairly even target distribution between the group, I might fade all of them here.
Michigan:
This is absolutely a game in which Cade McNamara is playable at $5,900 with an implied team total of 28. Say what you want about his overall skillset, but McNamara has played at his best in the biggest moments this season, including 400+ yards on the road against Michigan State and 217 yards with three touchdowns at Penn State a few weeks back. Nine of McNamara’s 14 passing touchdowns on the season have come within the last four games, and if you believe Michigan will be trailing here, game script also favors the junior QB. I’d put the odds at 99 percent that Blake Corum will play this week as he was suited up against Maryland last Saturday, but was not needed in the blowout victory. With that, I don’t think Hassan Haskins is playable here at $7,900 against an Ohio State defense that allows just 12.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year, and completely stifled Kenneth Walker last week. This is still a Jim Harbaugh-led team so Michigan won’t stray too far from running the football, but you’re more likely to see 15 touches here from Haskins with Corum back. We get official word that Corum is back in the lineup, and he’s very intriguing at $4,400 given he’ll see 15 touches as well if the early portion of the season was any indication.
Call it a hunch, but Andrel Anthony has been really quiet since his breakout performance against Michigan State. He’s now splitting time with Roman Wilson, but is the far superior player in my eyes. I think you can make an argument for both players this week given pricing and game script. They’re in the top three, along with WR1 Cornelius Johnson who is out for me solely due to pricing. McNamara distributes targets evenly across the board so I’d rather take a shot on a cheaper option. Three tight ends have topped double-digit fantasy points this season against the Buckeyes, so Erick All is also in play at $3,800. Was targeted 20 times in the three games leading up to last week where All was not need against Maryland.
Alabama @ Auburn
Point-Spread: Bama -19.5
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Alabama:
We entered the year thinking John Metchie WR1A and Jameson Williams WR1B. And That couldn’t feel more incorrect at this point in the year where I’m starting to consider Williams in the same vein as DeVonta Smith a year ago. Just when you think the focus could shift towards Metchie after a monster performance from Williams, the former Ohio State transfer did it again vs. Arkansas with 190 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Metchie was tremendous in his own right with 10-173-1 on 13 targets, and I saw plenty of winning lineups last week that bit the bullet to roster both. Both players are trending way up in conference play. I just don’t want to get caught again as I did many times a year ago in rostering Metchie because of salary, when there was a clear alpha in the room next to him who caught all the touchdowns. Doesn’t appear to be the case this year with both being very productive.
Auburn limited both Mississippi State and South Carolina to under four yards a carry the last two weeks, but both teams are near the bottom of the SEC in rushing. On the year, Auburn does grade out well vs. the run, ranking 20th in Rush Play Success Rate and 26th in Explosiveness. We know numbers and stats don’t really apply when facing Alabama because of the talent disparity, but could be a reason to fade Brian Robinson Jr. this week at his pricing. Of course, Robinson is plenty capable of rumbling for four touchdowns as he’s done already this year, but Alabama isn’t running as successfully as they did earlier in the year. My only suggestion is that if you roster Robinson, you fade the receivers, and vice versa. Can’t stack both phases of the Alabama offense. Auburn ranks lower than Arkansas this season at defending the pass, and Bryce Young is fresh off lighting up the Razorbacks for 500+. The Tigers are 107th in Pass Play Success Rate and allowing over 25 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. One feather in the cap for the secondary – not allowing the big play. 10th in Explosiveness.
Auburn:
Think this Alabama defense is going to come in hungry and angry after allowing 35 points to Arkansas last week? QB TJ Finley was proficient in his first start, throwing for 188 yards, one TD and zero turnovers, but that still wasn’t enough vs. South Carolina to come out with a win. He’s not under consideration for me this week, nor really is RB1 Tank Bigsby at $6,400 against the best defensive front in the country. An opponent hasn’t averaged more than four yards a carry vs. Bama since Week 3. RB1s are averaging just 10.5 FPPG vs. the Tide this season and are 8th in Rush Play Success Rate. Knowing Auburn will be forced to throw as a near three-touchdown dog, maybe we can look to one of the receivers here. Ja’Varrius Johnson was third in targets (7) last week vs. USC, but has the best matchup of the three, lining up against Malachi Moore in the slot. Outside receivers Shedrick Jackson and Demetris Roberson had 9 and 8 targets, respectively, last week with both hitting double-digit fantasy points. In all reality, this is probably a full-team fade here.
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