Texas Tech vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -13.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Tex 33 – TT 19.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($7,300) All comes down to how effective Brooks can be against a Texas defensive front that has dominated in the trenches for much of the year, allowing the 6th fewest fantasy points to running backs in the country. Just three running backs have scored more than 11 fantasy points this season in their respective matchups with the Longhorns. Still don’t imagine Tech deviating much from what has worked offensively for the last two months. 18 or more carries for Brooks in each of the last nine games.
Fade – WR Jerand Bradley ($4,900) Questionable sometimes whether Pro Football Focus is accurate or not with its starter designations but seems like former Kansas State transfer WR Jordan Brown ($3,400) got the starting nod against UCF last week, catching four passes on four targets. Bradley wasn’t effective when a sure-fire starter, so we’ll avoid it if he’s splitting time moving forward.
Bargain Bin – WR Xavier White ($3,600) White has had a resurgence over the last month with 70 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games. Because teams are usually in a trailing position against the Longhorns, Texas is allowing the 38th most fantasy points to receivers in the country. Would prefer White over a more expensive WR Myles Price ($5,400) who is just coming off an injury after missing last week’s contest.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($6,800) The Longhorns are a team that can make an opponent one dimensional, even with as good a runner as Tahj Brooks in the backfield. We saw that just last week against Iowa State – albeit not nearly as good a running game as the Red Raiders – limiting the Cyclones to just nine yards on the ground. While still strong at defending the pass, the Texas secondary has shown to be leaky at times over the last month and a half, allowing three QBs to scored 25 fantasy points or more against them. Texas is 117th in pass attempts allowed per game.
Best of the Rest – WR Coy Eakin ($5,200) Texas Tech’s leader in routes run in each of the last six games as Eakin entered the starting lineup in Week 6. Averaging 5.0 targets per game in that span.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Baxter ($5,500) Thought there might be a chance at Texas easing the 5-star freshman in with his first career start coming on the road in a hostile environment last week at Iowa State. Nope. 20 carries right off the bat for Baxter, rushing for 117 yards in the victory. Tech’s weakness defensively is against the run, ranking 71st in rush D success rate, allowing 16.4 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – RB Jaydon Blue ($5,000) Baxter dominated the touch counts in the Texas backfield last week 26-11, holding true to form that HC Steve Sarkisian will always feed his RB1 no matter who is in the backfield. To Blue’s credit, he was a factor in the passing game with four receptions on four targets.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,000) Sanders has not lived up to expectations this season as a top five fantasy tight end, but understandable given that he’s been hampered by an ankle injury for a portion of the year. Perhaps a shot at a breakout performance this week against a Texas Tech defense that is giving up the 14th most fantasy points in the country to tight ends. Five different tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points this season against the Red Raiders.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,700) Texas Tech is an average pass defense across the board, ranking 52nd in EPA per pass play defensively and 58th in pass D success rate, allowing 21.4 FPPG to quarterbacks. Similar to the opponent in this matchup, the Red Raiders also allow the 25th most passing attempts per game (36). Not opposed to starting both the Texas RB and QB in the same lineup either.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Not sure that I can add much else here that we haven’t already covered when it comes to Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. Three of the top four highest scoring receivers to face Texas Tech this season play on the boundary, so I’d favor the talented duo over a slot receiver like Jordan Whittington. Would also not stack Worthy and Mitchell together in a lineup either, as Tech is 29th in fewest fantasy points allowed to receivers this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: PSU -20.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: PSU 31.5 – MSU 11
Weather: Dome
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaytron Allen ($5,800) Three of the last four games Allen has out-touched RB Nick Singleton ($6,000), and got the starting nod last week against Rutgers, rushing for 69 yards and two scores. Michigan State had been one of the better run defenses in the conference and country to begin the year, but some slippage of late, allowing over 360 combined yards to Indiana and Ohio State the last two weeks. Four of the last five teams to face MSU have rushed for at least two scores. Have to think Penn State will look to establish the run with a potentially hobbled starting QB. Don’t stack the two together in a lineup.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($7,900) Considered probable as HC James Franklin said Allar will play on Friday despite an upper-body injury, but reading some of the pregame reporting from Penn State sites seems to indicate that it’s no sure thing. At the very least, we should expect to see some of Beau Pribula who provides a running element to the mix. The possibility of two quarterbacks playing on a team that can’t throw the football effectively is an easy fade.
Bargain Bin – TEs. Same story each week with Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren being underpriced. But with a slight twist this week. And I want to hammer this point home. Second straight year that Michigan State has allowed THE MOST fantasy points in the country to tight ends. 54% of Penn State’s touchdowns this season have gone to tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($5,500) 25% target share and 25% of the Penn State’s receptions as KLS is truly the only reliable receiver on the roster – a big reason why this is now a meaningless season for the Nittany Lions. Lambert-Smith was shut out last week against Rutgers with zero targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Dante Cephas ($4,600) Ran the most routes of any Penn State receiver in Week 12, though put up a goose egg with zero receptions on five targets. Just four wide receivers this season have scored more than 16 fantasy points against the Spartans.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the QB situation…for props…not for DFS. You’re not playing Drew Allar regardless. But we’ll be hammering the under if we get further word of a possible two-QB split.
Michigan State:
The lowest implied team total on the slate by a wide margin, but we have three potential options to look at as the Michigan State passing game showed some life against Indiana last weekend. WR Montorie Foster ($4,100) has been Michigan State’s best offensive player in the last three weeks with 90 or more yards against Nebraska and Indiana with two touchdowns. Production is minimal for redshirt freshman WR Tyrell Henry ($3,300) but has played over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last three games. TE Maliq Carr ($3,600) had his best performance of the season last week with 117 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets. The issue is the Penn State secondary is one of the best in the country, ranking 8th in pass D success rate. Those three are last resort options.
Oregon State vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -13.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Oreg 37.5 – OSU 24
Weather: 43 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Damien Martinez ($6,700) So two notable outcomes the last few weeks with regards to Martinez and the Oregon State backfield. Production is up, obviously, with six rushing touchdowns in the last two games and three 100-yard performances in the previous three weeks. Not to go unnoticed is the 3-1 split in carries as Martinez has dominated the volume share of late between him and backup RB Deshaun Fenwick ($5,000). Hasn’t always been the case this season. Tough matchup against an Oregon defense that is giving up the fifth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing backfields, but Oregon State’s run game and offensive line can match up with the best of them.
Fade – Non-starters. 60% of Oregon State’s total offensive yardage this season have come from five players.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Velling ($4,300) Team-high 8 receiving touchdowns this season for the sophomore tight end who is third in targets (50), receptions (28) and routes run. Oregon has done a solid job against opposing tight ends in 2023, allowing just 4.9 FPPG.
Pivot Play – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($8,400) I would limit your exposure here because of the matchup and the fact the team continues to incorporate 4-star freshman backup Aidan Chiles for a few series each week. DJU has really struggled this season against the top-tier opponents in the Pac-12, failing to complete 60% of his passes against UCLA, Utah and last week vs. Washington. Oregon allows fewer FPPG to quarterbacks than two of those three teams.
Best of the Rest – WR Silas Bolden ($6,100) or Anthony Gould ($5,300) This shouldn’t come as a surprise, but teams with winning records like Oregon tend to allow fantasy points to opposing WRs as their opponents are typically in a trailing position. And that applies to the Ducks who give up the 18th most fantasy points in the country to receivers. Opponents are averaging 38 pass attempts per game vs. Oregon in 2023, 9th most in the country. Top-heavy target share for Oregon State with Bolden/Gould combining for 44%.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – QB Bo Nix ($10,400) Biting the bullet on Nix’s salary last week paid off in droves as he racked up 43 fantasy points to boost his Heisman candidacy against lowly Arizona State. A noticeable uptick in fantasy production in the last three weeks, now with over 120 fantasy points scored in that span after hitting 30 fantasy points just once in the first eight games. Nix has also surpassed 350 passing yards in each of the last three contests. Do we go back to the well with Nix again? Oregon State is allowing 17.3 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Fade – RB Jordan James ($5,200) I’m unsure here as to why the decline in production for James the last several weeks. Fantasy production can fluctuate, I suppose, but the volume for James is trending downwards also, now with fewer than 10 carries in each of the last four games. Oregon State already limits the fantasy production of opposing backfields, so we would likely need volume for James to hit value, which is declining rapidly.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrence Ferguson ($4,000) Heartbreak last week for those that paired Nix with the big 6-foot-5 tight end who saw all of one target with zero receptions. Meanwhile, backup TE Patrick Herbert ($3,100) caught two touchdown passes on four targets despite being on the field less than 1/3 of the offensive snaps. Regression to the mean for Herbert which feels more like a one-off performance.
Pivot Play – WRs. Not really a pivot play here, but wanted to highlight that Oregon State could potentially be without both of its starting cornerbacks on Friday, leaving a pair of true freshmen to cover two of the best receivers in the Pac-12 in Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson. Six wide receivers in the conference have scored 21 fantasy points or more this season against the Beavers, all of which being outside receivers which favors Troy Franklin.
Best of the Rest – RB Bucky Irving ($7,500) Oregon was up double-digits from the word go, but is there a coincidence that Irving saw just 11 rushing attempts last week after nursing an ankle injury? Smart on the coaching staff to limit his snaps in the blowout, but do we see a fully healthy Bucky on Friday? He’ll be the more highly-owned player between him and Nix is my guess. Oregon State allows the 22nd fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Injury Notes – n/a
