Miami vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: Mia -7.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Mia 28 – BC 20.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – RB Mark Fletcher ($6,300) Henry Parrish and Donald Chaney Jr. played all of 18 combined snaps vs. Louisville last week as this backfield has officially been turned over to the 4-star freshman who had a monster performance against a good Louisville defense with 100+ yards and two scores. Unless BC loads the box and forces the passing game to beat them, Miami should have plenty of success on the ground Friday as the Eagles rank 13th in run defense in the ACC and give up the 26th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. BC has allowed over 5.97 yards per carry in four of the last five games. Yikes.
Fade – RB Henry Parrish ($4,800) See above.
Bargain Bin – WR Brashard Smith ($3,400) We know the top three are solidified. Smith has seen his playing time double since about Week 7, splitting time in the slot with Xavier Restrepo as Miami doesn’t have a dependable tight end healthy on the roster. Four or more targets in five of the last six games.
Pivot Play – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($7,400) I thought TVD was solid last week against a very good Louisville secondary, throwing for 327 yards and a touchdown. Play-calling down the stretch for Miami was very questionable in their attempts to tie that game late. We’ve also got narratives working in our favor here as this will be a homecoming game for Van Dyke where many relatives are expected to be in attendance. Not that Van Dyke is a runner, but he’s still dealing with a leg injury that is a slight cause for concern. I won’t have any exposure here, but he’s not an outright fade. BC does not grade out well against the pass.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Midseason Xavier Restrepo showed up last week with 193 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. His 16.0 aDOT against Louisville was the highest of his season as Miami challenged their secondary with deep route patterns. Here’s the one issue – Boston College, despite grading out poorly defending the pass, has allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers. Maybe because they get dominated on the ground each week? Or the lack of good quarterbacks in the ACC has something to do with it. Two highest scoring receivers to face BC this season have both been slot receivers, fwiw.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – RB Kye Robichaux ($5,500) The Hurricanes have the No. 1 rush defense in the ACC, allowing 92 yards per game on the ground, but don’t view it as an impenetrable defense. Louisville found plenty of success last week en route to 162 yards on 34 attempts with a backup RB playing primarily. Love that Robichaux was questionable entering the Pittsburgh matchup and still dominated the BC backfield touch share with 24 attempts and 118 yards. This is a very attainable price for a running back that has hit 100+ in three of the last four.
Fade – WR Jaden Williams ($3,500) A starter to begin the year, Williams was targeted three times in Week 11 vs. Virginia Tech with zero receptions. Last week, the junior receiver didn’t log a single offensive snap. Doesn’t have an injury tag on DK, and he feels like a prime transfer candidate after the year.
Bargain Bin – WR Dino Tomlin ($3,600) The son of Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has led BC in targets in each of the last two games as it appears he’s taken over as a starter over the aforementioned Jaden Williams. BC didn’t rotate at all at receiver last week with the top three playing most of the game.
Pivot Play – QB Thomas Castellanos ($6,000) A low-cost option at the quarterback position who can run puts Castellanos in play, but he has not been nearly as effective in the month of November as he was the prior month. Injuries play a part, but that’s what happens to smaller dual-threat QBs. Less than 15 fantasy points scored in three of the last four. Miami allows 16.8 FPPG to quarterbacks, but just 76th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Lewis Bond ($4,000) Man, they’ve really underpriced the BC components this week, as Bond should probably be at least $4.5k, if not more, based on his production this season. Five different receivers this season have scored 16 fantasy points or more against the Hurricanes. WR Joseph Griffin Jr. ($3,300) has had a disappointing year compared to expectations entering 2023, but Miami is susceptible to allowing big plays, and Griffin has a 15.3 aDOT this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -10.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: OU 37 – TCU 26.5
Weather: 48 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Josh Hoover ($7,300) Really difficult to settle on a top option for TCU this week. Normally, it’d be Emani Bailey, but seen some slippage with the run game of late. Hoover has thrown for 300+ in each of the last three games, and multiple 400-yard passing performances in the last month and a half. This is a must-win game for TCU to achieve bowl eligibility and have to imagine they’ll throw the kitchen sink offensively in attempts to do so. Hoover is a solid play but not someone we need to force in our lineups as OU is giving up just 16.0 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – Backups. We’ve got a lot of TCU players with a projection this week, but rotations has tightened up here in the final stretch of the season, aside from when the game was already decided against Baylor. Top three receivers are our only options this week. I don’t think there is any threat that Chandler Morris will get playing time. And Emani Bailey controls the backfield.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaylon Robinson ($4,500) Robinson is the cheapest I would go if looking for a TCU option. The UCF transfer is fourth in targets (46) and third in routes run despite playing in only nine games this season.
Pivot Play – WR Savion Williams ($5,400) Quiet day from Williams last week with just 51 yards on two targets, but TCU pulled the starters early in the second half. The junior receiver had been trending upwards with Hoover as the starter prior to that, including 11-164-1 against Texas. What goes under the radar is that both Warren Thompson and Dylan Wright are done with TCU and will not play, so don’t expect much rotation like we saw earlier in the year.
Best of the Rest – RB Emani Bailey ($6,900) Volume share hasn’t deviated at all, but we’re seeing TCU run the ball less since Hoover took over, and you wonder if Bailey is starting to wear down a bit now with 200+ rushing attempts for the first time in his career. Actually, it’s the first time with more than 105 rushing attempts in a season, so wear and tear is absolutely a concern. That said, we just saw BYU rush for over 200 yards against this same Sooner defense. TE Jared Wiley ($5,600) is coming off a career best 178 yards and two scores vs. Baylor last week and has now been targeted at least seven times in each of the last three games. OU is giving up 7.1 FPPG to tight ends. WR JP Richardson ($5,300) leads TCU in targets (65) and receptions (42), facing a secondary that is giving up 17.1 FPPG to receivers. OU is 98th in pass attempts allowed per game, so expect TCU to chuck it around.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($5,500) With the QB situation unknown and pricing, this is the easy selection. 107 rushing yards on just 14 carries in terrible field conditions at BYU as Sawchuk has now hit the century mark in each of the last three games. TCU is allowing the 20th most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Fade – RB Tawee Walker ($5,200) I think the surprises in the OU backfield are fin for the season. 49-14 advantage in favor of Sawchuk the last three games for rushing attempts. Only way in which Walker will hit value on Friday is if Sawchuk gets injured or OU decides to go run-heavy should Dillon Gabriel not play.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayden Gibson ($3,000) Three touchdowns in Gibson’s last four games played as he had a career-high 82 yards against BYU last week. This is a risky play, though, given the QB uncertainty and the fact that Gibson only plays 1/3 of the game normally.
Pivot Play – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,300) To get ahead this week with the holidays, I have to write this up on Tuesday and the status is currently unknown for Gabriel after suffering an injury against BYU. If he starts, the matchup is solid against a TCU secondary that is 62nd in pass D success rate and allows over 18 FPPG to quarterbacks. Likely would be Gabriel’s final appearance in an Oklahoma uniform too in front of the home crowd. With the cheap options available at running back, we can spend up at QB.
Best of the Rest – WRs. We know the situation here by now. Drake Stoops, Nic Anderson and Jalil Farooq are all options, though downgraded if we see Jackson Arnold under center Friday. Four of the top five highest scoring receivers to face TCU this season played on the boundary, which would favor Anderson and Farooq. Limit one OU receiver in your lineup.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned to the QB situation.
Iowa vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -2.5
O/U Total: 26.5
Implied Score: Neb 14.5 – Iowa 12
Weather: 29 degrees / 5% rain / 15 mph winds
Iowa:
Top Play(s) – TE Addison Ostrenga ($4,200) The tight end factory just keep on producing. Down to their fourth-stringer, Iowa might’ve found something here in Ostrenga who now has 13 receptions on 15 targets in the last two games. Three tight ends have scored nine or more fantasy points vs. Nebraska this season.
Fade – QB Deacon Hill ($5,500) 390 passing yards the last two weeks from Hill is like 1,000 yards for any other college program. We can credit Hill and the Hawkeyes for finally opening up the offense a bit the last two games, while also acknowledging we have zero interest here.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaleb Brown ($3,900) We know Brown has the talent, although we can maybe question the intellect as to why you would choose Iowa as a transfer destination being a wide receiver. But the former 4-star Ohio State commit has come alive in the last two weeks. Found the end-zone in Week 11 vs. Rutgers and posted a season-best seven receptions on 10 targets against Illinois. Brown has been on the field over 90% of the offensive snaps the last two games. Could also say the same for slot-man WR Nico Ragaini ($4,100) but at a higher price and lower fantasy ceiling.
Pivot Play – RBs Barring we get some surprise injury news; this is a fade spot with the Iowa backfield. 60-40 split between Leshon Williams and Kaleb Johnson, facing one of the better run defenses in the B1G in Nebraska that allows the 9th fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Nobody to consider outside of those listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Even as a surprise favorite with everything on the line in a rivalry matchup, in attempts to secure a sixth win and bowl eligibility, this is a full-team fade. Iowa allows the 4th fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks, 7th fewest fantasy points to running backs and 20th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. I’ll give WR Billy Kemp ($4,900) a quick mention as he posted a season-high eight receptions on nine targets last week against Wisconsin, but that is the extent of our interest here.
Memphis vs. Temple
Point-Spread: Mem -11.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: Mem 38 – Temp 26.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 1% rain / 10 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Watson ($7,300) Top play on the slate; don’t overthink it. Temple allows the fifth most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Fade – n/a. Load em up. There are about 7-8 potential options on the Memphis side.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Landphere ($3,300) We have several Memphis options under $4.5k but wanted to highlight Landphere for a few reasons. Uptick in usage the second half of the season with 23 of his 33 targets coming in the last six games. What I’m struggling to decipher is if the Temple defense is good against opposing tight ends or are there just a lack of talented tight ends in the American conference. The Owls allow the second fewest fantasy points in the country to the position. RJ Maryland and Oscar Cardenas, two of the talented tight ends in the conference, both scored 10 fantasy points against Temple.
Pivot Play – RB Brandon Thomas ($4,500) Love this Thomas play as a pivot off of Watson or potentially a stack of the two running backs together. Thomas has been a thorn in the side of Watson fantasy owners, getting most of the red-zone work the last several weeks, resulting in eight rushing TDs in the last five games. Temple gives up 34.4 FPPG on average to opposing backfields. Both RBs could mash.
Best of the Rest – QB Seth Henigan ($8,800) I’m admittedly struggling to determine the viability of Henigan in this matchup. On one hand, Temple allows 24.2 FPPG to quarterbacks which is 10th most in the country. I think you need to have Temple pieces on the other side, though, because Henigan won’t put up the numbers needed unless this is a shootout. Teams attempt just 29 passes per game against the Owls because of how poorly they defend the run. FIVE Memphis receivers have been targeted at least six times in each of the last two games. DeMeer Blankumsee and Roc Taylor are the obvious selections, but Tauskie Dove, Joe Scates and Koby Drake are all getting volume. Memphis has allowed 38 or more points in each of the last three games. Mix and match.
Injury Notes – n/a
Temple:
Top Play(s) – QB EJ Warner ($6,500) Barring a surprise, Temple has to throw to win this potential shootout against Memphis. The Tigers are only giving up 19 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but we like the volume uptick for the Temple passing game that is reflective of 2022 where the Owls are averaging close to 50 pass attempts per over the last games that Warner has started.
Fade – QB.
Bargain Bin – TE David Martin-Robinson ($4,500) The last three weeks from DMR is what some expected for the entirety of the 2023 season. 13 receptions on 19 targets with a pair of touchdowns. Four tight ends have scored double digit fantasy points against Memphis this season. We would not discount TE Jordan Smith ($3,800) either whose also had a recent surge in production with 50% of his season-long receptions coming in the last three games with three touchdowns to boot. With the lack of playmakers at receiver, Temple has shifted lately to running more two-tight end sets.
Pivot Play – RBs. Tricky situation because there is no bell-cow in the Temple backfield as evidenced by not having a running back hit 10 rushing attempts in the last four games. But they’re all cheap and Memphis’ run defense is almost non-existent. 18th most fantasy points in the country allowed to opposing backfields and 94th in rush D success rate. Darvon Hubbard or Edward Saydee would be the selections is willing to risk a Temple RB in your lineup. Both players do add some value with their pass catching abilities, combining for 41 receptions on 57 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Dante Wright ($4,000) Way too cheap for his production of late, finding the end-zone in each of the last three games, including being targeted 12 times last week in the loss to UAB. Memphis allows the 13th most fantasy points in the country to wide receivers. WR Zae Baines ($3,000) might be the most mis-priced player on the slate. 8.3 FPPG is nothing special, but Baines is second on the team in targets (62), third in receptions (32) and second in routes run this season.
Injury Notes – WR Amad Anderson ($3,900) The projected WR1 coming into the year, Anderson has not played in the last two weeks for an apparent off-the-field issue. One-game suspension? Unless you’re a diehard Temple fan, we’re unlikely to find this information in the pregame of a post-Thanksgiving Friday slate with so many games on.
Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Point-Spread: Tol -10.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tol 32.5 – CMU 22
Weather: 31 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – RB Peny Boone ($7,700) Plenty of value on the entire slate where you can spend up to Boone if you’d like. Seven 100-yard rushing performances in the last nine games, though he’s not seeing the volume you’d prefer as they’re splitting carries with the backup and the quarterback. Still, this is one of the worst rush defenses in the country in CMU that allows 19 FPPG to running backs and ranks 124th in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Jacquez Stuart ($6,400) Too expensive for a backup when there are higher projected players with cheaper salaries. Had just three carries for a single yard last week. There is almost zero appeal to having Stuart in a lineup at this cost.
Bargain Bin – WR Larry Stephens ($3,600) Season-high in routes run last week for Stephens, who was targeted five times with three receptions. Much of that had to do with Toledo being in a trailing position against Bowling Green much of the night. Not expected on Saturday with Toledo being a double-digit favorite, now having won its last 10 games.
Pivot Play – QB Dequan Finn ($8,300) Would imagine most that are playing any Toledo pieces will gravitate towards Boone over anyone else. But CMU is equally as poor defending the pass, ranking 127th in EPA per pass play and giving up over 20 FPPG to quarterbacks. In fact, QBs are averaging almost eight fantasy points more than their seasonal average when playing the Chips.
Best of the Rest – Pass-catchers. They’re priced too highly for my taste but means will see next to nothing from an ownership perspective. WR Jerjuan Newton ($7,100) leads the team in ever receiving category with 40% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. WR Junior Vandeross III ($5,500) is second on the team in all receiving categories while playing 83% of his snaps in the slot. Why is that important? The three highest scoring receivers to face Central Michigan this season all played in the slot and each scored over 25 fantasy points in their respective matchups. 12 of TE Anthony Torres ($4,800) 21 receptions have come in the last four games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Marion Lukes ($7,000) Has been Central Michigan’s best player for a month now, finding the end-zone in each of the last four games. We know he’s the top option on CMU but how is the matchup? I actually think Lukes might be a viable option in GPP settings because he won’t see much ownership. And Toledo is average at best against the run. The Rockets allow 16.7 FPPG to running backs and 85th in rush D success rate. With a beat up QB room, wouldn’t shock me to see the staff lean on the ground game and keep the explosive Toledo offense off the field.
Fade – QBs. I strongly advise staying away here. Jase Bauer is beat up behind a terrible offensive line. Bert Emmanuel is hurt. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the QB3 play at some point. Toledo is giving up just 13.4 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 10th nationally in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Before peaking at the salaries of the CMU pass-catchers, I assumed they’d all be listed in the $4k range given not one averages more than 10 FPPG. Nope. There is no reason to consider Tyson Davis, Chris Parker, or Jesse Prewitt. Toledo allows the 15th fewest fantasy points in the country to receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio vs. Akron
Point-Spread: Ohio -13.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: Ohio 27.5 – Akr 14
Weather: 38 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – RB Sieh Bangura ($6,500) Frustrating season for those CFF owners of Bangura who simply did not see the rushing volume he did a year ago as the coaching staff was content with splitting the carries in the Ohio backfield. However, we’ve seen an uptick in the last two weeks with 17 and 21 rushing attempts, respectively, in Week’s 11 and 12. The hope is that continues against lowly Akron who allows the 8th most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Fade – QB Kurtis Rourke ($7,200) Not an outright fade but limit your exposure for a quarterback that has hit 20 fantasy points just twice all season. Akron is surprisingly good on the backend, allowing just 15.3 FPPG to quarterbacks and are No. 3 nationally in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Walton ($4,700) Six or more targets in three of the last four games, and four targets in each of the last five as Walton has taken over the WR3 spot with Jacoby Jones out for the year.
Pivot Play – RB O’Shaan Allison ($5,000) Why Ohio felt the need to consistently give O’Shaan Allison 12 carries a game despite averaging just 3.2 YPC this season is beyond me. But he does see volume and found the end-zone twice last week against CMU. Minimal exposure here, but if Ohio blows out Akron, Allison will get 10-12 touches on Friday.
Best of the Rest – WRs Sam Wiglusz and Miles Cross are both in play as Ohio’s top two receivers, but tread lightly for reasons we outlined above on the Akron secondary. 9th fewest fantasy points allowed in the country to opposing wide receivers. Ohio can run their way to victory in this matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Akron:
Top Play(s) – WR Daniel George ($4,500) or WR Jasaiah Gathings ($4,600) Preferable to not stack the two together in a lineup, facing one of the best defenses in the MAC, but these two dominate the Akron target share at a combined 46%. The issue is the same as 2022 – a combined two receiving touchdowns between them as Akron has thrown just nine TDs all season. George will be a popular optimal lineup play but would suggest this is a spot to fade against the public. Ohio allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in the country.
Fade – RB Lorenzo Lingard ($6,200) Lingard is coming off a season-high 26 carries last week against a bad Eastern Michigan defense. In Week 11 against a top-half MAC defense in Miami (Ohio), Lingard posted just 47 rushing yards on 11 attempts. I’d suspect his stat-line to reflect that performance against an Ohio front that is simply better than Akron. Ohio is giving up just 12.1 FPPG to running backs and 7th in rush D success rate. Better RBs are available on the slate at lower salaries. A feather in the cap for Lingard is his usage out of the backfield with 33 receptions on 34 targets, including five targets in each of the last two games which raises his floor.
Bargain Bin – TE Jacob Newell ($3,800) Three or more targets in each of the last two games for Newell and found the end-zone last week against EMU. Tight ends are averaging almost four fantasy points more than their seasonal average when facing Ohio.
Pivot Play – QB Jeff Undercuffler Jr. ($5,200) We have an 11.2-point projection for Undercuffler, so very low priority. But game script will work in his favor here as a double-digit underdog and has thrown for 230+ yards in three of the last four games. Just one quarterback has scored more than 17 fantasy points all season against the Bobcats to give some perspective on how low a priority he should be among your QB options.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
UTSA vs. Tulane
Point-Spread: Tul -3
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Tul 27.5 – UTSA 24
Weather: 60 degrees / 14% rain / 9 mph winds
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – WR Joshua Cephus ($6,500) This kind of feels like one of those games that is better to watch rather than from a fantasy perspective as you’d be hard-pressed to find two more complete teams at the G5 level and UTSA and Tulane. In that sense, I wouldn’t game stack. Cephus is the top play for the Roadrunners, coming off one of his best performances of the season with 9-163-1 on 12 targets vs. South Florida, surpassing 100 targets for the second-straight year. Tulane allows the 21st most fantasy points in the country, though, to opposing wide receivers.
Fade – RB Kevorian Barnes ($7,100) The fact that we have so many RB options on the slate makes this an easy fade for me. Sat atop the depth chart last week after reportedly being available as Barnes was expected to make his return from injury but played three snaps in the win over USF. Can’t trust it, and this is a three-headed backfield even when Barnes is 100%.
Bargain Bin – TE Oscar Cardenas ($3,500) Cardenas has not been the impact pass-catcher some expected him to be with the defections at receiver, but he came alive this time last year with 13 targets in his final two games. Might we see the same in 2023? Tulane allows the 14th fewest fantasy points in the country to tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Devin McCuin ($4,900) De’Corian Clark who? McCuin has stepped up admirably as the WR2 this season, now ranking second on the team in target (58) and receptions (37) as a true freshman in just 10 games played. Season-high seven receptions on 12 targets against USF.
Best of the Rest – QB Frank Harris ($8,600) Last week was the 2022 version of Frank Harris, dominating an opponent with both his arm and legs to the tune of 63 fantasy points. While Tulane will give up garbage time yards to the receivers, they’re stingy against the pass for the most part, ranking 43rd in pass D success rate and giving up15.6 FPPG to quarterbacks. I’ll be fading Harris. WR Tykee Ogle-Kellogg ($5,000) Touchdown machine that has found paydirt in 60% of the games played this season. I’m assuming his season-low in routes run last week was a result of the blowout with the game already in hand. I think the RBs might be a situation to avoid, particularly if we get word that Kevorian Barnes is in fact healthy and will play. Neither Robert Henry, nor Rocko Griffin stood out last week against a horrendous USF run defense. Now, they’ll face a Tulane defense that allows a combined 18.7 FPPG to opposing backfields and are 17th in rush D success rate. Not a spot where you want to prioritize a running back in a committee.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on any Kevorian Barnes news.
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($5,900) The stud freshman remains underpriced for the volume he receives each week, now hitting 20+ carries in six of the last seven games. And in the week in which he didn’t hit 20 rushing attempts…he had 19. The issue for me is touchdown equity, as Hughes has just six in 11 games played. UTSA has an average run defense, ranking 52nd in rush D success rate and allowing 14.4 FPPG to RB1s. Hughes will be a popular play, so could be an opportunity to pivot off him.
Fade – n/a. At price, all primary Tulane contributors are a potential option.
Bargain Bin – TE Alex Bauman ($3,300) One of my favorite bargain bin options on the slate as Bauman has become a real difference maker for the Tulane passing game with three or more receptions in seven of the last eight games. UTSA is giving up just 4.8 FPPG to tight ends this season, but that can be attributed to the lack of good tight ends on the Tulane schedule. Against Temple earlier in the year, the Wave gave up 42 combined fantasy points to David Martin-Robinson and Jordan Smith.
Pivot Play – QB Michael Pratt ($8,200) 23-point projection for Pratt this week puts him in play at this pricing, but don’t love the fact he would be without two of his top playmakers at receiver. Didn’t hamper him against FAU, throwing for 252 yards and three touchdowns, but UTSA is a different animal. Two things working in Pratt’s favor here: (1) UTSA is average against the pass, allowing 20 FPPG to quarterbacks. (2) Teams average around 38 passing attempts against the Roadrunners in 2023 – 9th most in the country.
Best of the Rest – WRs. I’m very intrigued with redshirt freshman Chris Brazzell both for Friday and moving forward as the 6-foot-5 redshirt freshman has had a solid debut season with 36 receptions and three touchdowns. With Keys and Jackson out of the lineup, Brazzell was Pratt’s No. 1 option with 7-103-1 on nine targets. WR Bryce Bohanon ($3,000) was second among wideouts in routes ran against FAU with the depleted WR room.
Injury Notes – WR Lawrence Keys ($5,200) and WR Jha’Quan Jackson ($5,200) Writing this on Tuesday won’t allow for me to know whether Keys or Jackson will be available for Friday, as we likely won’t know anything until an hour before kickoff. I tend to just avoid these situations as Tulane injury news will be difficult to come by on a 10-game slate.
Utah State vs. New Mexico
Point-Spread: Utah St -7.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Utah St 34.5 – NM 27
Weather: 52 degrees / 7% rain / 13 mph winds
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – WR Jalen Royals ($6,400) Top seven receivers to face New Mexico this season all play on the boundary. Royals spends 91.9% of his time on the field at the boundary position with a team-high 12 receiving touchdowns. All seven of those receivers hit 21 or more fantasy points in their matchups with New Mexico. Royals is the priority amongst this group.
Fade – RB Robert Briggs ($4,400) We saw this with Devin Mockobee and Purdue earlier in the year – be cautious with running backs who fumbled the week prior as Briggs did in the loss to Boise State. Maybe it doesn’t affect his standing with the current coaching staff but saw just four carries in that matchup. This is a three-headed backfield as it currently stands anyways, so rostering any Utah State RB is a risk (not worth taking in most situations).
Bargain Bin – QB Levi Williams ($5,400) Here’s what we know for sure about Williams. The former Wyoming transfer has plenty of on-field experience after spending three seasons with the Cowboys, and he can run with a combined 13 rushing touchdowns and over 1,000 yards in his college career. But he was the team’s QB3 for a reason. That said, New Mexico is terrible against the pass, ranking 128th in pass D success rate and giving up 20 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Pivot Play – WR Micah Davis ($5,100) A distant WR3 behind Royals and Terrell Vaughn, but better numbers than most WR3s around the country with 36 receptions and six touchdowns on 59 targets. A very top-heavy target share where the trio of Utah State receivers combine for 70% of the team’s targets. Also plays on the boundary as we noted above.
Best of the Rest – WR Terrell Vaughn ($6,800) Can’t go wrong with a receiver already with 100 targets on the season. We harped on outside receivers above, but the fact remains New Mexico allows a ton of fantasy points to wideouts, no matter where they’re lined up on the field. RB Davon Booth ($5,900) was the hot hand against Boise State at running back with 125 yards on 12 attempts. The week prior, it was RB Rahsul Faison ($3,900) with 181 yards on 22 carries. Doesn’t appear to be any rhythm to which Utah State RB is the one to prioritize in a given week. New Mexico doesn’t defend the run well either, ranking 122nd in rush D success rate and allowing 17.1 FPPG to RB1s. If only we had a concrete idea as to who that is? Does Utah State lean on the run game Friday with a QB3 under center?
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the QB situation.
New Mexico:
Top Play(s) – RB Jacorey Croskey-Merritt ($6,000) One of the biggest surprises in the college fantasy landscape as a name that most hadn’t even heard of until late August. JCM is tied for second nationally with 16 rushing touchdowns this season and should eclipse the 1,000-yard mark for the season against Utah State assuming all goes to plan. Utah State allows the second most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Fade – QB Dylan Hopkins ($5,700) Hopkins was seen in a cast at the end of last week’s game but is reportedly going to start on Friday. New Mexico changed quarterbacks nine times against Fresno State and would imagine a similar game plan for this week. Devon Dampier provides the upside.
Bargain Bin – QB Devon Dampier ($5,800) See above. This is a big risk, but Dampier, a true freshman, has some electric ability with his legs with 107 yards on 22 carries in the last two weeks. He’s the future QB1 for the Lobos in the year’s to come and he could see a good chunk of playing time on Friday if Hopkins is ineffective. Utah State is better defending the pass than the run…but not by much.
Pivot Play – WR Caleb Medford ($4,800) The TCU transplant seems to be hitting his stride with 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last three games, seeing a season-high 122 yards last Saturday. Big-play threat averaging 18.1 YPC and a 21.3 aDOT.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Hixon ($4,900) Team leader in receptions (35) and touchdowns (5). Surprisingly, Utah State only gives up a combined 28 FPPG to opposing WR groups – maybe because they’re getting gashed on the ground routinely.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Mizzou -7.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Mizzou 31 – Ark 23.5
Weather: 53 degrees / 3% rain / 8 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Cody Schrader ($7,200) Not sure there has been a better fantasy running back in college football over the last month than Schrader. 33.75 FPPG in the last four games with four straight 100-yard rushing performances. Maybe most importantly – 20+ rushing attempts in each of the last five games. Usage in the passing game is up too, as Schrader is no longer splitting carries with Nathaniel Peat. Two or more receptions in each of the last six. Arkansas is solid against the run, ranking 48th in rush D success rate and allowing just 14.8 FPPG to running backs.
Fade – RB Nathaniel Peat ($4,000) See above. This was a 55-45 split in the first five weeks. That has vanished.
Bargain Bin – WR Mookie Cooper ($4,200) Second on the team in routes run and third in both receptions (34) and targets (41), yet still has not found the end-zone this season. A large part of that is due to the high target share for Luther Burden, but also don’t find a lot of 5-foot-9 receivers spending 71% of their snaps at outside receiver. Cooper has been playing out of position all year to accommodate Burden in the slot.
Pivot Play – QB Brady Cook ($8,100) Will be the lowest owned of Missouri’s Big 3, but not to be dismissed as Cook has now scored over 24 fantasy points in three of the last four games. Rushing usage is up which boosts Cook’s value, now with 48 carries over the last five games as he appears healthy from the lower leg injury that was bothering him in the month of October. The Razorbacks have almost identical numbers against both the run and pass, allowing 19.9 FPPG to quarterbacks and 48th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Luther Burden ($7,600) Saw a dip in production over the last month, likely due to his lingering injury that’s kept Burden “questionable” for the better part of the last month. Last Saturday was the September version of the 5-star receiver with 158 yards on 15 targets. Burden and Cody Schrader in the same lineup is a viable option because of how much the dominate the volume shares at their respective positions. WR Theo Wease ($5,600) leads the team in routes run this season and did find the end-zone against Florida on a 77-yard reception. He’d been looking like the Oklahoma version for the last few weeks up until that point.
Injury Notes – TE Brett Norfleet ($3,200) Deemed questionable by HC Eli Drinkwitz. Missouri players have been questionable all season long and find a way to play each week so wouldn’t be surprised to see Norfleet on the field Friday. Risking a low-end tight end that is questionable is much different than a questionable Luther Burden, though.
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,300) Considering he’s the only Arkansas player with a projection over 10 fantasy points, this was an easy selection. But how viable a candidate is Jefferson for our lineups? One notable trend in the positive direction is the increase in rushing volume since the change at offensive coordinator, now with 35 rushing attempts over the last three games, including a season-high 15 carries against FIU. If Jefferson is running the football that much in a blowout, I’d imagine Arkansas gets him on the move again on Friday. If there is a component of Missouri’s defense that struggles, it would be the pass D, ranking 80th in success rate. That said, the Tigers are allowing just 15.9 FPPG to quarterbacks so Jefferson is not high on our list of priorities at the QB position.
Fade – RB AJ Green ($4,100) See below.
Bargain Bin – RB Isaiah Augustave ($4,000) I don’t foresee Arkansas finding much running room against Missouri, but if they do, it appears the Razorbacks will be turning the page to the true freshman over AJ Green, as Augustave rushed for 101 yards on 14 carries against FIU. The 4-star freshman is already built like an SEC running back at 6-foot-2, 208 pounds with plenty of room to grow with his frame. Missouri’s run D had been dominant in the last month prior to last week’s matchup with Florida, allowing over 260 yards on the ground at nearly seven yards a clip.
Pivot Play – WR Andrew Armstrong ($5,800) Arkansas’ best receiver consistently all year long. 27% of the team’s receiving production and 26% target share is rare company for a wide receiver in college football. Six different SEC receivers have scored 16 or more fantasy points against Mizzou this season, in large part because teams have been forced to throw in comeback attempts. Opponents are averaging 35 att/g against Missouri this season, 35th most in college football.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaedon Wilson ($3,500) Got the starting nod against FIU, finishing with 3-31-1 on four targets, and ran the second most routes of any Arkansas receiver behind Armstrong. WR Isaac TeSlaa ($4,100) is one of the more frustrating DFS options available. Second on the team in targets (62), receptions (32) and routes run on the Razorbacks yet has failed to scored double-digit fantasy points in 9-of-11 games this season. Numbers point to him being a viable option, but never comes through.
Injury Notes – RB Raheim Sanders and RB Rashod Dubinion will not play on Friday.
Air Force vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: BSU -6.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: BSU 26.5 – AF 20
Weather: 41 degrees / 9% rain / 10 mph winds
Air Force:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Carson ($3,500) Carries in the backfield are available with Emmanuel Michel confirmed out this week, and Carson has done the most with his opportunities the last several weeks. 80+ rushing yards in each of the last two games vs. Hawaii and UNLV. Doesn’t matter who lines up in the backfield, we know the goal of the Air Force offense, as the Falcons are No. 1 in the country in rush play percentage.
Fade – WRs. See last sentence above. Maybe in a two-gamer we analyze this situation. Not on a Main Slate.
Bargain Bin – FB Owen Burk ($4,400) Burk has already been replaced in the starting lineup once this season by Emmanuel Michel and wouldn’t shock us to see it happen again with Dylan Carson. The fact remains, though, that Burk is the listed starter on the depth chart and did see double-digit carries last week with Michel not in the lineup. Boise State is 74th in the country in fantasy points allowed to running backs…so an average run defense.
Pivot Play – RB John Lee Eldridge ($5,600) The most explosive player on the Air Force offense that just doesn’t see the necessary volume to be a week in, week out difference maker. 541 rushing yards and six touchdowns on just 69 attempts, averaging just under eight yards a carry.
Best of the Rest – QB Jensen Jones ($6,400) Zac Larrier won out over Jensen Jones because he’s a better thrower of the football. But Jones is the best athlete in the Air Force quarterback room, and that was on display last week in his start vs. UNLV with 95 rushing yards and two scores. With how infrequently Air Force throws the football, those numbers need to be his floor, realistically, to hit value at his salary. This matchup has been fairly low scoring the last several years, so I’d have very little exposure here.
Injury Notes – FB Emmanuel Michel and QB Zac Larrier already confirmed out.
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB George Holani ($6,300) Holani’s production has been boosted the last few weeks with Ashton Jeanty out of the lineup but didn’t prevent him against Utah State from rumbling for 187 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. The big issue now is workload, because Holani won’t average 13.4 YPC against a defense that allows the 8th fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs. Unfortunately, Jeanty’s return might force us to fade both Boise running backs here.
Fade – WR Billy Bowens ($3,900) Current leader on the roster in routes run this season now that Eric McAlister has left the team, likely entering the transfer portal. Bowens needs substantial volume to hit value considering he’s surpassed 50 receiving yards just once in 11 games, and 3.8 targets per game won’t cut it. Surprisingly, his targets have even declined since McAlister left the team.
Bargain Bin – WR Prince Strachan ($3,700) If there is a difference maker at receiver, the 4-star freshman would be the option to choose from. Boise fans had been clamoring to see Strachan get more reps, and that came to fruition against New Mexico in Week 11 with 128 yards and a score on three receptions. Ran the most routes of any Boise wideout in Week 12. Just difficult to trust anyone in this passing game with Green at QB, facing an Air Force secondary that gives up the 11th fewest fantasy points to receivers in the country.
Pivot Play – RB Ashton Jeanty ($7,500) High risk, high reward. Jeanty likely won’t see the volume necessary to hit value as he’s splitting with Holani, but we know who the better player of the two is. And Jeanty is still second in the country in all-purpose yards per game (158.3) and tied for sixth with 16 touchdowns. If this were a lesser opponent, we’d be more interested. That caveat is that we might see 70+ rushing attempts between the two teams on Friday.
Best of the Rest – QB Taylen Green ($6,700) Green is back in the QB1 saddle full-time with Maddux Madsen now out for the regular season due to injury. Don’t trust Green at all to throw against this Air Force secondary that is 11th nationally in yards allowed per game, but we know Green is an athlete capable of rushing for 100+ against any opponent. Air Force did have a successful game plan for Green in last year’s matchup, limiting the QB to just 16 yards on five attempts.
Injury Notes – QB Maddux Madsen is out for the season. Taylen Green’s show the rest of the way.
