Florida State vs. NC State
- Point-Spread: FSU -4.5
- O/U Total: 61.5
- Implied Score: FSU 33 – NC St 28.5
- Weather: 63 degrees / 11% rain / 6 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Duce Robinson ($6,400) The comparison before the season was Johnny Wilson from a few years ago, as he and Robinson have a similar build at 6-foot-6, 220 pounds. Well, Robinson has been better than advertised, now with 947 receiving yards and five touchdowns in 9.5 games played, already surpassing Wilson’s numbers from 2022. WRs are roasting the NC State secondary of late, averaging over 42 FPPG as a group against the Wolfpack this season.
Fade – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($4,100) Not necessary to roster any Florida State running backs, no matter the size of the slate, but Sawchuk is the least appealing among the FSU options. Four rushing attempts over the last two games as the coaching staff has gone with a youth movement, splitting carries between RB Ousmane Kromah ($4,300) and RB Sam Singleton Jr. ($4,600). The NC State pass defense gets the headlines, for all the wrong reasons, but the run defense isn’t much better. Backfields are averaging over 30 FPPG against the Wolfpack this season.
Bargain Bin – Randy Pittman Jr. ($3,800) Pittman ranks third on the team in targets (31) and receptions (19), while playing nearly 97% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last six games. Pittman can score in a variety of ways, as evidenced perfectly last week with a rushing touchdown against Virginia Tech. NC State is allowing over 15 FPPG to tight ends this season, which is easily the highest number among these four teams.
Pivot Play – QB Thomas Castellanos ($7,700) You know it’s bad when the NC State pass defense makes Carson Beck look good. The Wolfpack have now allowed over 300+ passing yards in four straight games. The only team to not throw more than two touchdowns against NC State in the last seven weeks was Campbell University. This is an absolute must to have two quarterbacks in a lineup – the trouble is settling on two of them because all four have appeal.
Best of the Rest – WR Micahi Danzy ($5,000) or WR Lawayne McCoy ($3,000) Everyone will be on Duce Robinson, and deservedly so, but having either Danzy or McCoy in a lineup will be a route to deviate from the field. Danzy has fallen off in the last three weeks – his 59% of snaps played against Virginia Tech was the lowest number since Week 6. Meanwhile, McCoy was on the field more than Danzy against the Hokies and did have a receiving touchdown back in Week 11 vs. Clemson.
Injury Notes – RB Sam Singleton Jr. (questionable)
North Carolina State:
Top Play(s) – RB Hollywood Smothers ($5,800) You can go any direction your heart desires at quarterback on this slate. That is not the case at running back. Smothers is the tallest midget at the position, coming off his worst performance of the year with -2 yards rushing on just seven attempts vs. Miami. Florida State is good defensively against the run, but they’re not Miami, especially after last week’s performance, giving up over 200 rushing yards at almost 6 yards a carry against Virginia Tech. My lineup builds will start with Smothers.
Fade – RB Jayden Scott ($5,200) Would anticipate Smothers handling the bulk of the rushing workload now in his second game back from injury.
Pivot Play – QB CJ Bailey ($6,900) Bailey would rank 4th among the QB options on the slate, but he’s a different quarterback at home vs. on the road. Inside Carter-Finley Stadium, Bailey is completing 75% of his throws with 10 touchdowns to just one interception. That drops to a 64% completion rate with eight interceptions on the road. FSU is giving up just 20 FPPG to quarterbacks this season but did allow 24.9 fantasy points to Kyron Drones last Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Preferred choice is to play CJ Bailey solo and not pair with an NC State receiver. Noah Rogers is the leading target getter among NC State wide receivers at just 13% of the total target share. WR Terrell Anderson ($3,500) is the preferred choice of the group with a 78% catch rate and a team-high 548 receiving yards, ranked second behind only TE Justin Joly ($4,500) on the team in touchdowns (4).
Injury Notes – n/a
Hawaii vs. UNLV
- Point-Spread: UNLV -2.5
- O/U Total: 64.5
- Implied Score: UNLV 33.5 – Haw 31
- Weather: Dome
Hawaii:
Top Play(s) – WR Jackson Harris ($6,800) Back in the March, Micah Alejado called Jackson Harris the best transfer portal addition in the country. Turns out he might’ve been right, as the Stanford transfer leads the team in receiving yards and touchdowns (10), topping 100+ receiving yards in each of the last five games. No reason to think UNLV will be the defense to hold him in check, ranked 121st in yards allowed through the air. Harris is our highest projected WR in all of college fantasy football this weekend.
Bargain Bin – WR Brandon White ($4,300) Hawaii hit on two transfer receivers this offseason, with former Kentucky wideout Brandon White who has been the team’s WR3 for the majority of the season with Nick Cenacle dealing with injury. Three or more receptions in all but two games this season for White. We can play up to three WRs potentially in a lineup with Hawaii ranked 5th nationally in pass rate at nearly 62%. WR Karsyn Pupunu ($3,400) will have a role as WR4 on Friday if Nick Cenacle does not play.
Pivot Play – RB Landon Sims ($6,300) Hawaii doesn’t run much, but when they do, its typically with Sims who has nearly double the number of rushing attempts as backup Cam Barfield – his 16 carries came in garbage time during the San Diego State blowout two weeks ago. Sims is also a factor in the passing game ranked, fifth on the team in targets (36) and fourth in receptions (31). UNLV is giving up over 32 FPPG this season to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – QB Micah Alejado ($7,500) Of the four QB choices, I’ll have the most exposure to Alejado who should not be $700 cheaper than his counterpart in this matchup. Three passing touchdowns in each of the last five games for Alejado and faces a defense allowing over 25 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. QBs are scoring 24% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing UNLV this season. WR Pofele Ashlock ($5,700) is not the fantasy asset that Jackson Harris has been, but still in line for another 100-target season. Hawaii just doesn’t target him down the field, averaging 10.9 YPC with a 9.8 aDOT.
Injury Notes – WR Nick Cenacle (questionable)
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Colandrea ($8,200) You’d think being the highest scoring team in the Mountain West that it’d be an easy selection as to who is UNLV’s top option for Friday. Not necessarily the case, with much of that hinging on the status of running back Jai’Den Thomas. Colandrea gets the nod as QB13 currently in college fantasy football in points scored this season, with six rushing touchdowns scored in the last five games. Colandrea is best used in game stacks for me with Alejado as the second QB pairing.
Bargain Bin – WR Kayden McGee ($3,000) Never heard of McGee until Saturday when the Rebels got the freshman receiver utilized on some gadget plays, rushing for 54 yards on just three carries, including the game winner in overtime vs. Utah State. Specifically, if Jai’Den Thomas is out again, we anticipate McGee getting some action again on Friday. McGee was not targeted a single time in the passing game, so he’s a major risk to have in a lineup.
Pivot Play – RB Keyvone Lee ($4,800) Lee is also dependent on the status of Thomas. Lee held an 11-5 advantage in rushing attempts over Jaylon Glover last week and has been integral in the passing game with 10 of his 16 catches this season coming in the last three games. Running backs have found the most success of any position against this Hawaii defense in 2025, with the Warriors allowing over 27 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaden Bradley ($5,900) Bradley posted just 62 yards vs. Utah State, but was targeted a season-high 12 times. His 73 targets this season are 2.5x the amount of the next closest UNLV receiver with 28% of the team’s receiving production. The next four UNLV wideouts all have between 20-29 targets in what is really a WR by committee aside from Bradley, and don’t really need to be considered with WR being the strength of the slate.
Injury Notes – RB Jai’Den Thomas (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Hollywood Smothers, NC State
- WR Jackson Harris, Hawaii
- QB Micah Alejado, Hawaii
- WR Duce Robinson, Florida State
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Micah Alejado, Hawaii
- WR Jackson Harris, Hawaii
- QB Tommy Castellanos, Florida State
- RB Hollywood Smothers, NC State
