Notre Dame vs. Stanford
Point-Spread: ND -25.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: ND 37.5 – Stan 12
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Hartman ($7,500) Hartman will be the quarterback I have the second-most exposure to on the slate as he faces a horrendous Stanford defense that doesn’t do anything particularly well on that side of the ball. In particular, the secondary that is allowing the second most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks and 131st in pass D success rate.
Fade – TE Holden Staes ($4,600) I thought Staes would hold(en) down the fort with Mitchell Evans out for the season due to injury, but the sophomore tight end has just 13 receiving yards in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, TE Eli Raridon ($3,000) converted on all three of his targets last week with a touchdown. Stanford allows the third most fantasy points in the country to tight ends.
Bargain Bin – WR Rico Flores Jr. ($4,000) Best performance by a Notre Dame receiver all year last week for the freshman who caught eight passes on nine targets for 102 yards. Since taking over a starting role midseason, Flores now lead the Irish with 45 targets and is first in routes run. The Cardinal allow the most fantasy points in the country to receivers so any one of the Irish options at the position are worth considering.
Pivot Play – RB Audric Estime ($8,200) We questioned last week how many carries Estime would receive in a blowout scenario, and ND had no issue feeding their senior running back the rock, finishing with 115 yards on 22 attempts. Stanford’s run defense is only minimally better against the run, but not by much, allowing 17 FPPG to RB1s and 125th in rush D success rate. Does Estime get a full workload again if this game is lopsided?
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Faison ($3,100) Surprised they haven’t increased Faison’s salary after catching six passes on eight targets with a touchdown in the last two games. The walk-on is now splitting reps with Chris Tyree in the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($6,100) Ayomanor is eight targets shy of a 100-target season in 2023, while also just 35 yards away from a 1,000-yard season which I never would’ve thought possible after Week 5. Notre Dame’s pass defense is borderline elite, ranking 4th in pass D success rate and allowing the 14th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers which should indicate our true interest here in Ayomanor. Stanford is 31st in pass play percentage so the volume should be there for Ayomanor to have a shot at hitting value.
Fade – QB. See above. ND pass defense is exceptional, and the Irish allow the third fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,700) Excited to see this sophomore tight end in the future as Stanford has not missed a beat with Ben Yurosek out of the lineup. Roush has at least four receptions in four of the last five games. As we harped on in the preseason, this is a coaching staff that has utilized the tight end position frequently in the past at Sacramento State.
Pivot Play – RB EJ Smith ($4,200) Don’t get me wrong; Stanford won’t be able to run the football at all against the Irish. But we FINALLY saw this coaching staff utilize EJ Smith the way we thought in the preseason with eight receptions on 10 targets last week against California. This is a coaching staff that had a 70+ catch running back at Sacramento State a few years ago, and that is Smith’s best attribute. Preferred on DK in full-point PPR.
Best of the Rest – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($4,300) Second on the team in targets (58), receptions (36) and routes run. The 4-star freshman will be an integral part of the Stanford offense down the road if other P5 teams don’t poach him away after this season. 36 of his 58 targets have come in the last five weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: Clem -7.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Clem 28.5 – SC 21
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyler Brown ($5,100) This is just the perfect scenario aligning together for Brown. Beaux Collins is out, depleting what is already a weakness on the Clemson offense. South Carolina has a very poor secondary, ranking 87th in pass D success rate and allowing the second most passing yards in the SEC. Lastly, seven different receivers have scored 19 or more fantasy points against the Gamecocks this season. Six play in the slot. Where does Tyler Brown play? You guessed it.
Fade – n/a. Everyone on the Clemson side is priced appropriately to where they’re a potential option.
Bargain Bin – WR Adam Randall ($3,100) Randall will step into the starting lineup with Beaux Collins not available tonight. Caught two passes on three targets for 57 yards last week in his most extended action since Week 4. While a disappointing career to date so far, 5-star talent is 5-star talent.
Pivot Play – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,400) Two touchdowns in as many games for Briningstool who now has been targeted at least four times in all but one game this season. I’d expect that streak to continue with a depleted wide receiver group heading into tonight. Excellent matchup as well with South Carolina that has allowed the 15th most fantasy points in the country to tight ends.
Best of the Rest – RBs. We focus on the passing game components with Beaux Collins out of the lineup but should probably just look to what Clemson does best and that’s run the football with Will Shipley and Phil Mafah. I’d suspect Saturday to look very similar to the last few weeks with a 55-45 split in the backfield between the two, with 40+ carries a distinct possibility. South Carolina is 84th in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season and 78th in rush D success rate – very mediocre. WR Troy Stellato ($4,200) has been targeted 24 times in the last four games. QB Cade Klubnik’s ($7,300) 17.8-point projection turns out to be the exact number that South Carolina is allowing per game this season to opposing quarterbacks. The secondary has played better of late, limiting the last three opponents to under 200 yards passing. Should be noted that string of QBs includes Devin Leary, Ken Seals and Zion Webb.
Injury Notes – WR Beaux Collins ($5,000) Out with a foot injury.
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Legette ($6,600) Tough to doubt Legette, regardless of the opponent, as the senior receiver is 8th nationally in receiving yards (1,187) and leads the Gamecocks with 65 receptions on 86 targets – almost double the amount of the next closest South Carolina wideout. The trouble is the Clemson secondary is the strength of the defense and the Gamecocks have major protection issues, so I wonder how effective the passing game will be Saturday. Clemson is 22nd in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers.
Fade – WR O’Mega Blake ($3,600) Just three receivers saw a target last week in a competitive matchup with Kentucky, and Blake, a former starter, ran just 11 routes on 15 offensive snaps. His playing time has declined rapidly in the last month. I’m putting RB Mario Anderson ($5,800) in the fade category as well, as I simply don’t trust South Carolina to get any traction going on the ground against formidable opponents, as evidenced last week with just 32 yards on 12 attempts vs. Kentucky. Clemson is better than the Wildcats at defending the run, and South Carolina is 125th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Ahmarean Brown ($4,700) While Clemson has done well vs. opposing wideouts, slot receivers have found some success against the Tigers with LaJohntay Wester and Kevin Concepcion combining for 53 fantasy points. Brown has three or more receptions in his last four games played. WR Nyck Harbor ($3,600) ran the second most routes of any SC receiver last week and has taken the starting spot way from O’Mega Blake on the outside.
Pivot Play – TE Trey Knox ($4,000) Knox came back from injury after missing the last two games and was immediately impactful, running the fourth most routes against Kentucky with four receptions on four targets. Clemson has allowed just two tight ends to score double-digit fantasy points this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Spencer Rattler ($7,400) My guess is this becomes a defensive game similar to South Carolina’s matchup last week with Kentucky. Clemson is down a few pieces on offense and neither quarterback inspires a ton of confidence lately. The Tigers allow just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks and are No. 2 nationally in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State vs. Florida
Point-Spread: FSU -6.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: FSU 28 – UF 21.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 50% rain / 8 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Trey Benson ($6,900) Don’t have a great feel, honestly, for how this game will be approached offensively for the Seminoles without their leader Jordan Travis. But a strong running game will always help a first-time starting quarterback and Benson had been performing well up until last week, limited to just 22 yards on six attempts. Florida’s run defense was the headline earlier in the year but have taken a major step back since entering conference play, allowing 17.9 FPPG to RB1s with four SEC running backs scoring 20 or more fantasy points vs. the Gators.
Fade – QB Tate Rodemaker ($7,900) There are two excellent options with lower salaries at the QB position, so I’ll fade a player making his first career start on the road at night. If you want an argument in favor of Rodemaker, Florida allows the 9th most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’Khi Douglas ($3,900) FSU has been in search of a third receiver behind the top two studs on the outside, and Douglas has found a home in the slot, now with 30 fantasy points scored in his last two games played against FBS opponents.
Pivot Play – WR Keon Coleman ($6,600) or WR Johnny Wilson ($5,400) Jordan Travis or not, Florida’s secondary is pitiful, particularly in the second half of the season where four of its last five opponents have thrown for 300+ yards. Throw it up to Coleman and Wilson and let the two studs to the rest. 13 of the team’s 25 receiving touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – TE Jaheim Bell ($4,900) Second on the team in routes run and receptions (36), while third in targets (49). Florida is allowing just 5.9 FPPG to tight ends this season. Surprisingly, we haven’t seen Bell get a red zone carry since Week 7, but that’s in his arsenal and could be utilized there even more with Travis out.
Injury Notes – QB Jordan Travis ($4,500) Florida State career has come to an end for Travis after suffering a season-ending leg injury last week against North Alabama.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($6,100) or RB Montrell Johnson ($5,900) Expect 15+ touches for both tonight as the Gators feature the run game with a first-time starter at QB. The run game is clicking of late too, averaging over four yards a carry as a team in five of the last six games. If there is one deficiency on the Florida State defense, it’s against the run, ranking 74th in EPA per run play. Don’t stack both in a lineup together.
Fade – QB Max Brown ($6,800) Brown played well in relief of Graham Mertz last week, completing 4-of-5 passes while also adding 50+ yards on the ground. We like dual threats at quarterback and Brown can scoot, rushing for over 1,300 yards in his senior year of high school. This Florida State secondary should give him fits, though, in his first career start. The Seminoles allow the 6th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in college football and are No. 1 nationally in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Kahleil Jackson ($3,600) Four or more targets in six of the last seven games for Jackson, coming off a season-high 52 yards against Missouri. Third on the team in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Ricky Pearsall ($6,700) or WR Eugene Wilson ($6,100) 43% of the team’s target share and 50% of the receiving touchdowns belong to Pearsall and Wilson. How effective are they with a new QB? Wilson is preferred on DK after averaging just 3.3 yards per catch last week with an aDOT of just 2.6 yards. All of his targets come within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Pearsall is 54 yards shy from a 1,000-yard season, though this is the second-best secondary Florida will face this season as FSU is allowing the 13th fewest fantasy points in the country to receivers. Don’t mind playing a Florida receiver – would just limit to one with a backup QB.
Best of the Rest – n/a I think this will be a run-heavy approach from the Gators tonight.
Injury Notes – QB Graham Mertz ($4,500) Collarbone injury will force Mertz to miss the rest of the season.
Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: UGA -24.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UGA 42.5 – GT 18
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Carson Beck ($9,100) 19 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season for Beck, coming off one of his best games of the year with 298 yards and three scores on the road at Tennessee. Georgia Tech is allowing the 26th most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks and are 96th in pass D success rate. Five QBs have scored 25 or more fantasy points against the Yellow Jackets this season.
Fade – WR Ladd McConkey ($6,400) McConkey played just six offensive snaps against Tennessee last week after injuring his ankle. Highly doubt Georgia will risk their WR1 in a game where the Dawgs are favored by more than three touchdowns.
Bargain Bin – WR Dillon Bell ($3,800) With both McConkey and Rara Thomas hobbled, Bell ran the second-most routes of any wide receiver last week against Tennessee, finishing with 5-90-1 on five targets in the win. Thomas looks to be probable this week, but with McConkey unlikely to be a factor, Bell should see an increased role. Same applies for WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($5,800) who led the team with nine targets against the Vols.
Pivot Play – TE Brock Bowers ($7,900) Remember the stretch of games in Week’s 4-6 when Brock Bowers went nuclear with three-straight 100-yard performances? All of those came with Ladd McConkey out of the lineup. Three tight ends have scored 12 of more fantasy points against Georgia Tech this season, and Bowers has found the end-zone in five of the last six games played – the sixth being the Vanderbilt game in which he got injured.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Are we starting to see Kendall Milton take back the RB1 mantle over Daijun Edwards? Sure seems like it the last two weeks. I’m fine with starting either (or both?) running back against a terrible GT defense that is 101st in rush D success rate and allowing the 9th most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Injury Notes – Stay alert for any Ladd McConkey news.
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Jamal Haynes ($5,200) One of the pleasant surprises of the fantasy season, Haynes has rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns this season. Pretty good for a player we really hadn’t heard of at the onset of the year and someone transitioning over from wide receiver. Will I be starting a running back against Georgia? No. But want to point out this is far from the dominant UGA run defense we’ve seen in the past. Still allow the 14th fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs, but the Dawgs are 101st in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – RB Dontae Smith ($4,600) Smith has double-digit carries in three of the last four games, but not considering a backup running back against Georgia.
Bargain Bin – WR Dominick Blaylock ($3,800) Revenge game narrative for Blaylock facing his former team. Caught two passes for 68 yards and a touchdown last week vs. Syracuse. Third on the team among receivers in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($5,200) The true freshman leads the Jackets in all receiving categories – 74 targets, 43 receptions, and six touchdowns. Has found the end-zone just once in the last five games but does have at least five catches in the last four weeks. Georgia allows the 18th fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers.
Best of the Rest – QB Haynes King ($8,500) A 20-point projection is higher than what I expected for King here, but we should give the A&M transfer credit for being one of the top fantasy producing quarterbacks in the country this season, averaging over 28 FPPG. That’ll come to a halt Saturday most likely, as Georgia’s strength on defense is in the secondary, giving up the 13th fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks and 5th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: KU -6.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: KU 32 – Cin 25.5
Weather: 40 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,000) Those concerned last week about Neal’s fantasy value being weakened because KU was trotting out a backup quarterback forgot that the Jayhawks have one of the most innovative and diverse offensive schemes in the country. Neal had his best performance of the year against a very good Kansas State front with 138 yards and three touchdowns in the narrow loss. Volume is up as well, averaging 20 rushing attempts per game over the last month. Cincinnati is allowing 18 FPPG to RB1s in 2023.
Fade – WRs. In 33 combined games, the Kansas starting receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points just 10 times. The trio Lawrence Arnold, Luke Grimm and Quentin Skinner have eight receiving touchdowns between them and are separated by just five targets. This is a low volume passing game with the targets evenly spread out. Inexpensive options, but very low ceiling and appeal.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($3,600) Fourth on the team in targets (35), third in catches (24) and second in routes run. Five tight ends have scored more than nine fantasy points against Cincy this season.
Pivot Play – QB Jason Bean ($7,600) Bean made his return to the practice field this week and is expected to start for the Jayhawks. The Bearcats don’t do much of anything well defensively, and that came to a head last Saturday in the 42-21 drubbing by West Virginia where another dual threat QB in Garrett Greene scored 44 fantasy points in the matchup. Cincinnati is allowing the 23rd most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($4,600) The decline in salary for Hishaw makes him a bit more appealing in a game where Kansas is a touchdown favorite. Neal’s increase in rushing volume hasn’t impacted Hishaw much as the junior running back continues to average between 9-13 carries a game but hasn’t found the end-zone in three weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – RB Corey Kiner ($5,400) Tough to know what to expect from a team that has nothing to play for, but it is senior night at home for is apparently called Nip at Night…being at Nippert Stadium. Clever. Kiner has three 100-yard rushing performances in the last five games and is 56-yards away from a 1,000-yard season. That stuff matters to players and coaches, so I’d suspect the staff attempts to get Kiner over that mark. Kansas is atrocious defending the run, ranking 115th in rush D success rate.
Fade – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,800) Does not have any injury tag on DK, so just be aware that Metayer has already announced his intentions of entering the transfer portal and will not play Saturday.
Bargain Bin – RB Ryan Montgomery ($3,600) You’re not going to ask Emory Jones to throw it 30 times, so the best plan of attack against this KU defense is to run the football. Senior Day for Montgomery who has scored 40 combined fantasy points in the last three games. Decent usage out of the backfield with six receptions on six targets in that span.
Pivot Play – QB Emory Jones ($8,000) This season went about as expected for the senior quarterback. A viable fantasy option at times because of his running abilities, but still struggles with the concept of the forward pass and was eventually replaced in the starting lineup. Jones will get the starting nod on Saturday, facing a Kansas defense that can’t defend the pass either, ranking 118th in pass D success rate and allowing 21 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Xzavier Henderson ($6,500) Strong year for the Florida transplant as he had a prior connection with Jones at UF. Team leader in targets (87), receptions (53) and yards (732). 10 or more targets in three of Henderson’s last five games. WR Braden Smith ($4,200) had a productive year with 40 receptions on 61 targets, ranking second behind Henderson in routes run for the Bearcats.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina vs. NC State
Point-Spread: UNC -2.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UNC 29 – NC St 26.5
Weather: 40 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($7,500) Battle of strength-on-strength Saturday with Hampton, who’s tied for the nation’s lead in rushing yards at 1,414, facing an NC State defense that is giving up just 87 YPG on the ground over the last month. For the season, the Wolfpack are allowing the 19th fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs. With that said, Clemson ranked ahead of NC State in the same category prior to last week before Hampton rumbled for 178 yards on 19 rushing attempts and should’ve had a third TD had he not fumbled at the 1-yard line.
Fade – RB British Brooks ($3,800) Remember back in early September when Brooks was considered the 1A ahead of Hampton? 170-35 advantage in rushing attempts in favor of Hampton since Week 4. Not only has Brooks been relegated to RB2, but he’s a complete non-factor.
Bargain Bin – TE Bryson Nesbit ($4,700) The NC State defense has struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing the 16th most fantasy points in the country to the position. TE1s average 9.7 FPPG but are scoring six fantasy points above their seasonal average when facing the Wolfpack. Nesbit was quite against Clemson last week but coming of consecutive 10-target performances against Campbell and Duke.
Pivot Play – QB Drake Maye ($9,500) Won’t have much ownership as the highest-priced QB on the slate, facing an NC State defense that is allowing the 17th fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. 25-point projection is enough to keep Maye in the conversation because there simply aren’t many good QBs on the slate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Just three wide receivers saw a target last week against Clemson, which is good in the sense that our selections are narrowed down to just Tez Walker, JJ Jones and Nate McCollum. Just two wide receivers this season have scored more than 17 fantasy points against the Wolfpack. Walker is the priority for obvious reasons, as he’s been targeted 11 times in each of the last two games.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina State:
Top Play(s) – QB Brennan Armstrong ($6,100) Top play on the slate from a price / projection perspective after scoring 61 combined fantasy points in the last two weeks at Wake Forest and at Virginia Tech. The rushing volume is most intriguing with Armstrong having carried the ball 36 times in the last two weeks. I believe I read prior to the season that Armstrong intends to pursue a wrestling career after his college career concludes, so can’t imagine he’ll be hesitant throwing his body around in the final game of the season. UNC allows 20 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Michael Allen ($4,800) Doesn’t have a designation on Draftkings so this is a PSA to not play Allen as the sophomore running back announced he’s entering the transfer portal and will not play in Week 13. Just for old time’s sake, fade WR Keyon Lesane ($4,200) as well, as he continues to be a prop bettors dream with fewer than 30 yards receiving in all but one game this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Trent Pennix ($3,800) Hit or miss longshot option. Fewer than 10 yards receiving in over half the games played this season for Pennix. The senior tight end also had 99 yards and two touchdowns against Marshall in Week 6 and scored a TD this past weekend vs. Virginia Tech. Senior day for a player that has now spent six years in college. Does the staff plan to give Pennix a swan song?
Pivot Play – RB Kendrick Raphael ($4,500) I’d suspect Armstrong will lead the team in rushing attempts again on Saturday, but this is a defense that NC State should find success against on the ground. Raphael, a 195-pound true freshman, has impressed in the last three games with over 120 yards and a touchdown. North Carolina gives up the 27th most fantasy points in the country to running backs. RB Delbert Mimms ($4,900) leads all NC State running backs in red-zone carries.
Best of the Rest – WR KC Concepcion ($6,200) Best offensive player on the team, by far, as a true freshman, coming off his best performance of the season with over 100 total yards of offense and three total touchdowns – two receiving and one through the air. Not to mention 40+ yards rushing on nine attempts. If there is a receiver outside of Concepcion that is potentially rosterable, I’d look towards former Clemson transfer WR DJ Collins ($3,300) who’s run the third most routes among NC State wideouts in the last two games with seven targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -9.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: KSU 27.5 – ISU 18
Weather: 31 degrees / 86% rain / 5 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylin Noel ($5,900) or WR Jayden Higgins ($5,100) When Iowa State drops back to throw, it’s going in one of three directions – Noel, Higgins or a freshman tight end we’ll hit on below. The three players account for 60% of the team’s target share and 10 of the 17 receiving touchdowns. Three receivers have scored more than 28 fantasy points against Kansas State this season. This game appears as if it will be played in sleet/snow, so wouldn’t prioritize either player.
Fade – RB Cartevious Norton ($3,800) I was ready to say fade RB Eli Sanders ($4,500) as he’s the highest-priced Iowa State running back facing a top three run defense in the Big 12, but he’s been serviceable at times with 50 or more rushing yards in five of the last six games. Norton, meanwhile, has consistently been the third option in the Iowa State backfield, including last week with just two yards on three carries, seeing the fewest offensive snaps among the Iowa State trio of RBs. If selecting an Iowa State RB, I’d lean towards either Sanders or freshman Abu Sama III ($3,700). That, or fade the entire backfield that rarely generates much on the ground.
Bargain Bin – TE Benjamin Brahmer ($3,200) The 6-foot-7 freshman tight end is now second on the team in targets (49) and receptions (25), with two or more catches in each of the last five games and 13 targets in the last two weeks. Just one tight end has scored more than seven fantasy points against Kansas State this season.
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($5,800) I’d compare this matchup to the Texas game last week where Becht threw for 323 yards and two scores, finishing with 21 fantasy points. Don’t expect the Cyclones to find much success on the ground Saturday, forcing Iowa State to take to the air. Two issues – (1) the impending weather conditions and (2) Kansas State being 35th in pass D success rate and giving up just 14 FPPG to quarterbacks in 2023.
Best of the Rest – n/a Not considering anyone outside of those highlighted above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($6,200) Snowy weather has the feel of a DJ Giddens game with his powerful running style at 212 pounds. Back-to-back 100+ yard rushing performances for the sophomore back, though it came against two of the worst rush defenses in the B12 in Baylor and Kansas. Iowa State is far better than both at defending the run, giving up just 14.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Giddens gets the nod as the top play because of his 39 to 17 rushing attempt advantage the last two weeks over the Kansas State RB2. Speaking of…
Fade – RB Treshaun Ward ($5,300) Giddens has separated himself from the pack as the team’s clear-cut top option in the Kansas State backfield. If this were a Baylor or Kansas run defense like the Wildcats have faced in the last two games, we’d keep Ward in the player pool of options. Not against Iowa State who is 38th in rush D success rate. The only way Ward hits value is if Giddens gets injured.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayce Brown ($4,000) or WR Keagan Johnson (3,800) Just three receivers caught a pass against Kansas last week as the rotation at wideout diminished with the top three starters all playing over 56% of the offensive snaps. Longshot options if you need lineup fillers.
Pivot Play – QB Will Howard ($8,100) 23 or more fantasy points in four of the last five games for Howard, who is making the thought of him being replaced by Avery Johnson seem like a distant memory at this point. The issue is the Iowa State defense is strong against the pass as well, ranking 17th in pass D success rate and 29th in EPA per pass play. Just two quarterbacks all season have hit 23 or more fantasy points against the Cyclones.
Best of the Rest – TE Ben Sinnott ($4,900) Second on the team in targets (6) and catches (38) while tied for the team lead with five receiving touchdowns. Iowa State is allowing the 35th most fantasy points in the country to tight ends with three different TEs scoring 12 or more fantasy points against the Cyclones. WR Phillip Brooks ($5,100) was silent against Kansas last week with just one reception on three targets. Still leads the Wildcats in every receiving category, and his playing time remained constant.
Injury Notes – n/a
