Trying a different format for the weekend’s slates. Let us know on theCFFSite Discord on in my DMs if this would be preferred moving into 2025 next season or stick with the traditional format? Thanks to those of you that have already shared your opinion. – Mike –
CORE PLAYS:
Quarterback:
Kevin Jennings, SMU – Yea, we’re shooting for upside, but something to be said about consistency in both CFF and DFS, which Jennings is one of the best, scoring 22 or more fantasy points in six of the last seven games. Cal is very average across the board, defending both the run and the pass, and the Bears have the offense to force SMU to throw the ball around a bit. This is a DK only play here with a $7k salary, making it very affordable to nab three high-end running backs in the same lineup. Jennings is too pricy on FD.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (FanDuel) – Best bang for your buck option on FanDuel as Sellers has really come on in the last month, completing over 70% of his throws with three performances of 30 or more fantasy points. That matchup is not overly appealing, as Clemson hasn’t allowed a quarterback to score more than 20 fantasy points since Week 1 of the college football season. The rushing usage is what boosts Sellers’ projection with double digit rushing attempts in all but one game.
Running Back:
*Regardless of which RB you choose on DK specifically, three backs are a must in lineups.
Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech – Set and forget, don’t care about pricing. Brooks has not surpassed 100 yards in every game played this season, coming off a season-best 57 fantasy points in the win over Oklahoma State. Volume is guaranteed with 20 or more carries in all but one game, which we love. West Virginia’s rush defense is better than their pass defense by a considerable margin, ranked 24th in rush D success rate, but have allowed a substantial amount of fantasy points to running backs, with five RBs scoring at least 23 fantasy points against the Mountaineers this year.
Bryson Washington, Baylor – Honestly, you can’t go wrong with any of the running backs on this slate with 7-8 borderline-elite options to choose from – I wouldn’t be shocked if a one-QB lineup won the day. Washington is the best bang for your buck from a pricing standpoint, as he’s projected in the same vicinity as RBs in the $8k range. Kansas surprisingly has not allowed a ton of fantasy points this season to running backs, but the metrics paint a different picture, ranking 117th in success rate and 120th in EPA per run play.
Receiver:
Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State – Going to sound like a broken record at this point. Tyson will all but likely surpass the 1,000-yard mark this week as he’s on a string of six straight games with at least 80 yards receiving. Tyson now has 103 targets for the year, a whopping 63 more targets than the next closest Arizona State pass-catcher and 50% more receiving yards than Cam Skattebo, who is essentially WR2 at this point.
MID-TIER ALTERNATIVES:
Quarterback:
Garrett Greene, West Virginia – Greene was a huge letdown last week in a crucial spot for folks playing in college fantasy leagues. Despite a plus-matchup against a bad secondary, Greene threw for just 118 yards and 14 fantasy points in the win over UCF. So why is Greene being listed here then? 40 rushing attempts in the last two games with over 80 rushing yards in five of his last six games played. That’ll fare well against a Texas Tech defense that is giving up around 26 FPPG to quarterbacks, including 26 points this past Saturday to a freshman making his first career start.
Behren Morton, Texas Tech – In lineups you don’t have Tahj Brooks, Behren Morton is a necessity, along with one or two of his receivers which we get into below. West Virginia is ranked 14th of 16 teams in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game through the air and are giving up the highest QB Rating in the conference to opposing quarterbacks.
Cam Ward, Miami – Just modest numbers for Ward these past two weeks, making this a risk at such a cost. Here’s why we like Ward as a spend-up option. (1) Heisman narrative, with his second to last chance to perform in the eyes of the voters. (2) We could see upwards of 800 passing yards this week between two teams that are in the top 25 nationally in plays per game and pass play percentage. (3) Syracuse’s pass defense is well below average, ranking 105th in success rate and 81st in EPA per pass play. FWIW – We don’t view Ward as an absolute must this week at cost and might be preferred in a game stack.
Kyle McCord, Syracuse – Similar to Ward, this will be a fast-paced matchup with the Hurricanes in a game environment that is favorable to McCord throwing a ton of yards. The game is indoors, Syracuse is top five nationally in pass play rate and are an 11-point underdog. Everything about that points to 40-50+ pass attempts for McCord and plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy stats. This matchup feels very similar to the Louisville game earlier in the season where the Cardinals were playing from behind much of the contest. Tyler Shough wound up throwing the ball a season-high 51 times with 26 fantasy points scored.
Running Back:
Phil Mafah, Clemson – It was blatantly obvious what the plan was for Phil Mafah against the Citadel last week – get him over the 1,000-yard mark for the season and then allow for some of the younger backs to get some work in. We’re anticipating Mafah to see his regular workload this week in an important matchup with a South Carolina squad that is 98th in rush D success rate. The last FBS running back South Carolina faced was Missouri’s Nate Noel two weeks ago who rushed for 150 yards on 27 attempts.
Nate Noel, Missouri – Noel didn’t crack 10 fantasy points last week vs. Mississippi State but it wasn’t for a lack of opportunity. 25 rushing attempts against the Bulldogs but gave way to backup Marcus Carroll who finished with all three rushing touchdowns. Tough matchup with Arkansas who ranks third nationally in rush D success rate and giving up just 20.9 FPPG to opposing running backs, but the expected volume at a $5.1k price is difficult to pass up.
Isaac Brown, Louisville – Brown looked pretty healthy to me last week, averaging over seven yards a carry in the rout of Pittsburgh with two scores. The Kentucky run defense is 95th in success rate and trending DOWN, allowing at least two rushing touchdowns to the last four FBS opponents. Kentucky allowed just four rushing TDs in the first six games of the season. That number is now 12 TDs allowed in the last five weeks.
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State – Henderson likely won’t have much ownership given the surplus of running backs on the slate that are NOT in a committee, as he shares starting duties with Quinshon Judkins. Even this Michigan knows that Saturday will be a blowout of possible epic proportions as Ohio State takes their frustration of the last three years out on this Wolverine defense. I’d look to have at least one Ohio State player possibly in a lineup as there’s a chance they run up the score on Michigan.
Jadan Baugh, Florida (FanDuel) – The Gators are a two-touchdown favorite against their in-state rivals, and the run game is ROLLING. Even against a top three run defense in Ole Miss last week, the top three running backs combined for over 170 rushing yards. Now we get a really favorable game script and cheap salaries. Baugh gets the nod here, but we don’t mind Montrell Johnson either, or even spending way-down to Ja’Kobi Jackson who has also been involved significantly within the offense over the last month.
Receiver/Tight End
Caleb Douglas, Texas Tech – As we stated with Behren Morton above, volume is up for the Texas Tech passing game, meaning Douglas and the rest of the Tech receivers are getting peppered with targets. Douglas was the high man a week ago with 105 yards on 11 targets. Tech has been getting Tahj Brooks a bit more involved in the offense, but the benefit to Douglas or any Red Raider receiver for that matter is the team doesn’t rotate at the position. Douglas, Coy Eakin and Josh Kelly all play over 77% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Andrew Armstrong, Arkansas – Armstrong has not been as dominant from a fantasy perspective as Jordyn Tyson, but they’re essentially the same player otherwise. Armstrong has more than double the amount of targets as the next closest Arkansas receiver and 34% of the team’s overall receiving yards.
Jackson Meeks, Syracuse – Meeks is in play on both DK and FD as he’ll likely hit the 100-target milestone this week against Miami. We’ve spoken already how we anticipate Syracuse chucking the ball around Saturday, and Meeks could be targeted more if Trebor Pena does not play as he was seen in a sweatsuit during the second half of last week’s game vs. Connecticut.
BARGAIN BIN:
Quarterback:
Brady Cook, Missouri – Huh? I know that Missouri hasn’t had the season offensively that we all expected with so many veterans at the skill positions, but what kind of pricing is this? Any QB below $5k is usually reserved for some walk-on or converted running back playing another position, not a senior that threw for 3,300 yards a year ago. Arkansas is significantly worse vs. the pass than the run, so I might favor Cook over another popular play like Nate Noel because I’m not stacking the two together in a lineup.
Running Back:
Jamarion Wilcox, Kentucky – Wilcox has been the best running back on the roster the last three games, including two 100-yard rushing performances. Louisville is pedestrian against the run, ranking 64th in success rate with three ACC running backs having scored 23 or more fantasy points this season against the Cardinals.
Receiver/Tight End
Chris Hunter, Arizona – 21 receptions in the last three games for Hunter, including 12 targets this past week against TCU. As the game was going on, there were multiple beat writers for Arizona asking how much the Wildcats are going to have to pony up in NIL dollars to keep Hunter around next season. With Tet McMillan certainly off to the NFL after this year, Hunter should be Arizona’s WR1 next season.
Ashtyn Hawkins, Baylor – Insert “Ah sh%t, here we go again” meme. Hawkins came through last week, converting on all four of his targets for 62 yards and a score, and DK barely raised his pricing. Hawkins has a deep understanding of the Baylor offense given his time previously with offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and has played over 62% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last five games.
Cam Coleman, Auburn – Alabama’s pass defense has been trending up the last month or so, but Coleman has been elite the last two games with 100+ receiving yards against both ULM and Texas A&M with a combined five touchdowns. As they say, 5-stars eventually gunna 5-star. And Coleman is looking the part right now.
Chimere Dike, Florida (FanDuel) – Florida’s entire offensive dynamic changes with DJ Lagway at QB, particularly the receivers. The freshman QB does seem to favor Elijhah Badger, but the price difference makes Dike a particularly strong play because he’s played over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last four games with at least five targets in each contest.
GAME STACKS:
- Texas Tech / West Virginia
- Miami / Syracuse
- Kansas / Baylor
