Trying a different format for the weekend’s slates. Let us know on theCFFSite Discord on in my DMs if this would be preferred moving into 2025 next season or stick with the traditional format? Thanks to those of you that have already shared your opinion. – Mike –
CORE PLAYS:
Quarterback:
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana – Rourke is a core play for me, both for the matchup and the circumstances around this game. For starters, Purdue is very poor defensively against the pass, ranked 126th in defensive success rate and giving up around 27 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Hoosiers also need to win this game, and win it decisively, to ensure their spot in the College Football Playoff. Curt Cignetti is the type of coach that would not be shy about running it up against the in-state rival.
Running Back:
Jordan James, Oregon – A lot of good mid-tier options this week, so spending up for a running back isn’t necessarily a necessity. But we saw James back to full health last week against Wisconsin, racking up 121 yards and a touchdown on 25 rushing attempts. Washington’s secondary is borderline elite, so we’re expecting the Ducks to get things going on the ground from the onset. The Huskies are just 86th in rush D success rate and 94th in EPA per run play.
Bhayshul Tuten, Virginia Tech (FanDuel) – We have a healthy Bhayshul Tuten and a Virginia Tech offense that might be down to Pop Watson at quarterback. With this the final game of the regular season, and a must-win to reach bowl eligibility, I’d venture to guess that offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen will feature his RB1 out of necessity. Virginia is 94th in rush D success rate and has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in over half its games this season. 30+ touches is not out of the question.
Receiver/Tight End:
Ricky White, UNLV – Even in a monsoon last week, White still found a way to be the only productive fantasy player with 7-98-0 on 11 targets. With 69 receptions on 104 targets, White now has triple the amount of the next closest UNLV receiver, accounting for 44% of the team’s target share which is exactly what we want from an elite fantasy receiver.
MID-TIER ALTERNATIVES:
Quarterback:
Braylon Braxton, Marshall – Don’t like Braxton as much as Rourke because of the matchup. James Madison is giving up just 14 FPPG to quarterbacks for the year. But you can’t deny how good Braxton has looked over the last two games, scoring a combined 70 fantasy points. As is the case with most QBs we tout, it’s the usage on the ground that is most appealing with double-digit carries in six of the last seven games. We also saw two weeks ago that this James Madison defense is not impenetrable, giving up 28 fantasy points and three rushing touchdowns to Old Dominion freshman Colton Joseph.
Running Back:
Jai’Den Thomas, UNLV – Hajj-Malik Williams will be a popular play, so I like the idea of rolling with Thomas as a contrarian option given the matchup. Nevada’s run defense is not good, ranked 126th in success rate, 116th in EPA per run play and allowing 33 FPPG to opposing backfields. HMW can run, so that is appealing, but the Wolfpack have allowed just one QB to score more than 20 fantasy points against them all year.
Indiana Backfield – Indiana exposure is a must, so if not Rourke, grab either Justice Ellison or Ty Son Lawton as Purdue is equally as bad against the run, ranked 111th in success rate and allowing almost 40 fantasy points a game to opposing backfields.
George Pettaway, James Madison – I’d say JMU’s QB, Alonza Barnett, has the slate-breaking upside, but Pettaway has the better matchup against Marshall. The Herd are 90th in rush D success rate, 92nd in EPA per urn play and giving up just over 31 FPPG to opposing backfields. Pettaway, the North Carolina transfer, has had 80 or more rushing yards in five of the last six games.
Tre Wisner, Texas – Look for Texas to continue to lean on the run game this week with a hobbled Quinn Ewers who reportedly had a large ankle brace on during practice this week. Wisner had a season high 26 carries in the win over Kentucky last week, and the A&M run defense has been slumping over the last three games, allowing over 400 combined yards and six touchdowns on the ground to South Carolina and Auburn.
Receiver/Tight End:
Jayden Higgins / Jaylin Noel, Iowa State – We know exactly where the ball is going when Iowa State drops back to pass, with Higgins / Noel combining for almost 2,000 receiving yards and 62% of the team’s target share. Kansas State’s secondary is the weakness of the defense, ranked 69th in success rate and giving up 43 FPPG to opposing wide receiver groups. Five wide receivers have scored at least 23 fantasy points against Kansas State this season.
Chimere Dike, Florida – Florida’s entire offensive dynamic changes with DJ Lagway at QB, particularly the receivers. The freshman QB does seem to favor Elijhah Badger, but the price difference makes Dike a particularly strong play because he’s played over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last four games with at least five targets in each contest.
Matthew Golden, Texas – Took eight weeks, but Golden has finally emerged as a legitimate WR1 for the Longhorns with five touchdown receptions in the last four games, and a season-best seven receptions on nine targets this past game vs. Kentucky.
BARGAIN BIN:
Quarterback:
Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma – Realistically, Rourke is probably the cheapest I’d go on DK for a quarterback but can’t help notice how much OU is running Arnold with 17 or more rushing attempts in four of the last five games. I’ll be curious to see how much that happens on Saturday as the Sooners will likely have Jovantae Barnes back from injury, forming a talented trio of running backs with 5-star Taylor Tatum and rising star Xavier Robinson.
Running Back:
Florida Backfield – The Gators are a two-touchdown favorite against their in-state rivals, and the run game is ROLLING. Even against a top three run defense in Ole Miss last week, the top three running backs combined for over 170 rushing yards. Now we get a really favorable game script and cheap salaries. Baugh gets the nod here, but we don’t mind Montrell Johnson either, or even spending way-down to Ja’Kobi Jackson who has also been involved significantly within the offense over the last month.
Josh Williams, LSU – Uptick in opportunities the last two games for Josh Williams, rushing for 150+ yards combined over that span against Vanderbilt and Florida. Strong projection for this price, but the concern is that Williams could see high ownership with a bad matchup. Oklahoma is 4th in rush D success rate and allowing just 16 fantasy points combined to running backs this season.
Xavier Robinson, Oklahoma – Jovantae Barnes is back, but Robinson has looked like the best RB on the OU roster the last two weeks, including 100+ yards and two scores against a better defense than he’ll face this Saturday. Even if it’s a shared workload with Barnes, OU really isn’t throwing the ball much lately, now ranked 90th in the country in pass play percentage.
Receiver/Tight End
Yamir Knight, James Madison – Cheap pricing for a player that has four receptions in every game since the end of September. 15 targets in the last two games alone for Knight who has an exceptional 83% catch rate.
Tre Spivey, Kansas State – Longshot play as the statuses of Keagan Johnson and Jadon Jackson likely won’t be known officially until warmups. Just in the last two weeks, Spivey has already looked like the second-best receiver on the Kansas State roster with nine receptions on 14 targets. There’s also the rumor out there that WR1 Jayce Brown is intending to hit the transfer portal following this game – though he dispelled that notion from his personal X account.
Ali Jennings, Virginia Tech (FanDuel) – Jennings’ playing time has steadily increased over the second half of the season now that he’s healthy, playing a season-high 69% of the offensive snaps last week vs. Duke. The senior wideout finished with 158 yards on nine targets, which led the team. The only issue for Saturday is that Virginia Tech might be down to it’s third-string QB.
