James Madison vs. Louisville
- Point-Spread: Lou -13.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: Lou 34.5 – JMU 21
- Weather: 80 degrees / 41% rain / 11 mph winds
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – Alonza Barnett ($4,500) Shocked that DK didn’t pull the plug on the initial pricing with the salaries inverted for Barnett and Matthew Sluka. As a result, the ownership could be sky-high, but is it a trap? We saw Barnett and Sluka alternating series in the first half last week and imagine there will be special packages for Sluka in every game this season as a running threat. On the other side, Barnett looked awfully healthy in the Week 1 opener and absolutely cooked the last ACC opponent he faced last year in North Carolina to the tune of 50+ fantasy points.
Fade – WR Jaylan Sanchez ($5,200) If selecting a JMU receiver, we’re going bargain shopping if anything. Sanchez was a two-year starter at Villanova, compiling over 1,200 receiving yards in the last few seasons. But he did not start against Weber State in Week 12 and was seventh among JMU receivers in routes run.
Bargain Bin – WR Michael Scott ($3,000) TBD on the true WR rotations for JMU once they get into a competitive matchup, but Scott led the team in targets in Week 1, was a starter, and was second among receivers in routes run. Scott’s player prop line is also the highest yardage mark among the JMU receivers.
Pivot Play – WR Nick DeGennaro ($4,900) If you’re playing in a GPP, DeGennaro might be the best bet to hit big on a low-owned receiver (big risk though). DeGennaro is another transfer that posted 15 receiving touchdowns the last two seasons at Richmond. He was the projected WR1 by some coming into the year and ran the most routes of any receiver in Week 1.
Best of the Rest – RBs It’s going to be a heavy rotation all year for JMU as to who is carrying the football between George Pettaway, Wayne Knight, Ayo Adeyi, while also incorporating Sluka and Barnett in the run game. Knight might be the best value at the lowest cost, and he started the first two drives last weekend. TE Logan Kyle ($3,900) was tied with Scott with four targets last week and ran the second most routes.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Isaac Brown ($8,800) Any deep dive analysis needed here? This is a given.
Fade – WR TreyShun Hurry ($4,500) The San Jose State transfer started this game opposite Chris Bell on the outside, but seemed to give way to WR Antonio Meeks ($3,000) who was more productive and on the field more. Could be fool’s gold, but we’ve seen all the happenings with transfers struggling to adjust early in the year. Meeks was the projected starter all through spring camp, so maybe he’s won the job back?
Bargain Bin – Antonio Meeks ($3,000) See above. Meeks is the only bargain bin option below $6k for the Cardinals.
Pivot Play – RB Duke Watson ($6,500) Watson is a steal on FanDuel, but we’d still consider playing him on DK too, despite getting just two carries in the opener. There’s no controversy who is the RB2 behind Isaac Brown – Watson graded out as the better running back in 2024. Watson also displayed his receiving prowess in Week 1 with a 30-yard TD reception.
Best of the Rest – WR Caullin Lacy ($6,400) or WR Chris Bell ($6,800) Almost identical numbers between the two receivers. We’d favor Bell over Lacy. Bell’s aDOT is almost double the amount of Lacy’s, and the WR1 under head coach Jeff Brohm has typically played outside, which Bell does. QB Miller Moss ($8,700) is a non-runner that struggled in the opener, tossing a pair of interceptions. He’s the fourth QB option on the slate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northern Illinois vs. Maryland
- Point-Spread: MD -17
- O/U Total: 46
- Implied Score: MD 31.5 – NIU 14.5
- Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR DeAree Rogers ($3,000) Lenoir Rhyne University transfer. Famous alum include Rick Barnes, the Tennessee basketball head coach and Kyle Dugger from the New England Patriots. Maybe we can add DeAree Rogers to that list sometime soon? Rogers converted on all seven of his targets for 73 yards in Week 1 and is the early favorite to be the top target for the Huskies. Worth a shot at min pricing.
Fade – QB Josh Holst ($5,400) NIU still has a quarterback problem and that isn’t getting fixed this week after Maryland harassed Florida Atlantic QB Caden Veltkamp last Saturday. There’s a strong chance Holst gets replaced this season, either by FCS transfer Jackson Proctor or freshman Brady Davidson.
Bargain Bin – RB Chavon Wright ($3,200) How many transfers in college football this season had over 2,000 rushing yards and 38 rushing touchdowns in 2024? Better question…how many college running backs have had those numbers in their entire career? Wright took a step forward to claiming the RB1 job over RB Telly Johnson ($4,900) in Week 1, rushing for 77 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries. Wright has experience in this system despite being a transfer, as he came over from the University of Charleston with the current offensive coordinator for NIU.
Best of the Rest – WR Gary Givens ($4,400) or WR George Dimopoulos ($3,000) There was very little rotation at wide receiver vs. Holy Cross. No other wide receiver beyond this top three played more than 38% of the team’s snaps. In fact, only four wide receivers played in the game in Week 1.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Malik Washington ($8,500) Washington just might save Mike Locksley’s job if he continues to perform as he did on Saturday, tossing three touchdowns in the win over FAU. Washington and Maddux Madsen will likely be the most frequent QB pairing on the slate, and both have a near identical projection for us.
Fade – WR Kaleb Webb ($4,800) Appears as though the Tennessee transfer is a backup to start the season yet not priced like one. Webb did catch a touchdown last Saturday on three targets but was fifth among receivers in routes run. WR Shaleak Knotts ($4,400) is the better deal as he started outside in Week 1.
Bargain Bin – RB DeJuan Williams ($3,700) Too early to say that RB Nolan Ray ($5,900) has lost his starting gig already, but it was an underwhelming performance in Week 1 with just 25 yards on eight attempts. Williams was the surprise, rushing for 54 yards on 10 carries. If anything, Williams has earned himself more playing time moving forward.
Pivot Play – WR Jalil Farooq ($5,800) The Oklahoma transfer was a popular play on the DFS Week 1 Main Slate and combusted many a lineups, including my own. Farooq still ran the second most routes of the Maryland receivers with a team-best eight targets. Not ready to jump ship yet.
Best of the Rest – TE Dorian Fleming ($5,500) We’ve mentioned repeatedly the transition for transfers from the G5 to P4 level being a rough one. Not the case for Fleming who tied Farooq with eight targets in the opener. He’ll be a central component of the passing game. If Week 1 was any indication, the top three at receiver look to be solidified with Farooq, Knotts and WR Octavian Smith Jr. ($5,700) all seeing heavy usage.
Injury Notes – n/a
Eastern Washington vs. Boise State
- Point-Spread: Boise -28.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: Boise 42 – EMU 13.5
- Weather: 90 degrees / 2% rain / 5 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – QB Maddux Madsen ($7,100) Feels gross putting Madsen here after his embarrassing performance against USF in Week 1, but he’s clearly in the top two among QB options with Malik Washington.
Fade – WR Chase Penry ($4,000) One catch, one target, just 30% of snaps played vs. South Florida. Penry is the 5th or 6th option in the Boise State passing game. Why spend $4k on a receiver when you could spend $3k…
Bargain Bin – WR Ben Ford ($3,000) Ford emerged as the WR3 in Week 1, playing 60% of the team’s snaps and was third among WRs in routes run, finishing with 4-44-0 on five targets.
Pivot Play – RB Sire Gaines ($6,700) and RB Malik Sherrod ($5,400) My assumption is that the Boise State coaching staff does NOT want Maddux Madsen throwing the ball 48 times again this week, because we saw the results when that happens. Boise State will want to establish the line of scrimmage after losing the battle up front against South Florida. Gaines undoubtedly looks like the RB1 when watching the USF matchup, but the staff has already commented on the backfield carries being split early in the year. Start both, mix and match with one or the other…either option works here.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. It’s evident the top three options in the passing game were Chris Marshall, Matt Lauter and Latrell Caples. Salaries are all similar and projections are all within a point of each other. Stacking one with Madsen makes sense, but multiple Boise pass-catchers in a lineup could backfire if the game script plays out how we mention above.
Injury Notes – RB Jambres Dubar (Questionable)
Eastern Michigan:
Hopefully the one and only FCS team that will be included on a slate this year. There’s four options on the EMU side, starting with RB Marceese Yetts ($5,100) who had a big Week 1 with two rushing touchdowns, along with seven catches on as many targets as a receiver out of the backfield. 24 of the 30 targets that went to EMU receivers in Week 1 went to WR Nolan Ulm ($4,700), WR Jaxon Branch ($3,000) and WR Noah Cronquist ($3,000).
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Isaac Brown, Louisville
- QB Malik Washington, Maryland
- QB Maddux Madsen, Boise State
- RB Sire Gaines, Boise State
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Isaac Brown, Louisville
- QB Malik Washington, Maryland
- QB Maddux Madsen, Boise State
- RB Sire Gaines, Boise State
