Pittsburgh @ Tennessee
Point-Spread: Pitt -3
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 2% rain / 3 mph winds
Pittsburgh:
Should we be impressed that Tennessee allow one of the worst quarterbacks in college football, Matt McDonald, to complete 66 percent of his throws last week? Lot of dinking and dunking as he averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt, but this was a QB that had a 44 percent completion percentage against MAC competition last year. Bodes well for Kenny Pickett on Saturday after completing 73 percent of his passes with two touchdowns in an opening week win over UMass. Competition levels aside, the best part of Pickett’s stat-line is the 37 passing attempts in a game where the Panthers won by 44 points. That syncs up perfectly with the per game averages of att/g from Pickett over the last two seasons.
3-way tie atop the Pitt depth chart this week at running back with Israel Abanikanda, Vincnet Davis and A.J. Davis listed with the dreaded OR. Tough to glean much from an opening week blowout in terms of their utilization here moving forward, but a promising sign that Abanikanda led the way in snaps as he’s, by far, their most talented option. The only one I’d consider this weekend, though you shouldn’t expect more than 15 carries for the RB1 here under Whipple.
Not loving the cost for Jordan Addison here as the highest-priced WR on the slate. While Addison picked up right where he left off after a stellar freshman season with 5-39-1 on a team-high eight targets, his yards per reception averages (7.8) are also in line with what he produced a year ago. An aDOT of 14.4 is a substantial increase over last year (9.0) so maybe we see him stretching the field a bit more in 2021?
Aside from Addison, the secondary options in the passing game we will be looking at are Taysir Mack, Jared Wayne and starting tight end Lucas Krull. Mack had a substantial advantage over Wayne in snaps (59 / 37) vs. UMass last week and routes run (38 / 21), AND we get a discount in salaries on DK if choosing the former Indiana transfer. Krull might be the best bet of the three at $3,700, playing the second most snaps of any offensive skill position player, and converted on all five of his targets for 58 yards and a TD. Whipple has been known over the years to feature his TE dating back to UMass with Adam Breneman.
Tennessee:
Joe Milton’s 25 fantasy points look good on the surface but he was no good after the first quarter vs. Bowling Green, as he completed just 48 percent of his passes and lost a fumble. The accuracy issues are not surprising in the slightest as those have been with him since high school. Where I do like Milton this week is his potential volume and matchup vs. the Pittsburgh secondary. The Panthers’ two starting safeties have all of nine career starts on their resume so head coach Josh Heupel could look to test them deep and generate some big plays through the air. I also think we could see this Tennessee offense air it out Saturday facing one of the best run defenses in the country over the last 12 games as the Panthers allowed just 2.4 yards per carry in 2020 and held UMass to just 42 yards total last week on the ground.
Promising start for the Tennessee rushing attack with 331 yards on the ground against an undermanned Bowling Green defense. It doesn’t appear RB2 Tiyon Evans will be available this week so the workload could fall on the shoulders of starter Jabari Small who rushed for 117 yards and a TD on 22 carries. I won’t have much exposure of any running back facing this Pittsburgh run defense until they show signs of weakness.
Tennessee receivers remain too rich for my liking as they were last week as DK apparently thinks this will replicate the UCF offense immediately. Jalin Hyatt was the featured option in the passing game as expected with a team-high eight targets, but was plagued with two drops. We saw immediately where Heupel’s scheme will impact the production of the Vols’ receivers as Hyatt’s 17.3 aDOT dwarfs his averages from a year ago. Velus Jones, expected to be one of the top two options, was limited to just nine routes run and a single target. Cedric Tillman was second on the team in targets with six and all we need is one big play for him to match his $5,200 cost. An aDOT of 39 yards makes that feasible but Tennessee will get Jimmy Calloway back this week which could affect the WR rotations.
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