UNLV vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -7
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: KU 32 – UNLV 25
Weather: 76 degrees / 7% rain / 8 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky White ($7,700) Two elite wide receivers on the slate that are must-haves in cash game and should be over 90% exposure in GPPs. White was one of just a handful of collegiate receivers to hit the 30% target share threshold in 2023, and he’s off to a similar start with 12 of the 31 targets that have gone to UNLV pass-catchers. The Rebels didn’t need to throw the football against inferior opponents the first two games. That’ll change on Friday.
Fade – WR Corey Thompson Jr. ($3,800) Cheating a bit here listing a backup as a fade. But it is noticeable with Thompson’s playing time that he barely played against Houston in Week 1 – which was somewhat competitive for a portion of the game – but then saw 90% of the offensive snaps in Week 2 in the 72-14 blowout. Expect Ricky White, the listed starter ahead of Thompson, to play most of the contest.
Bargain Bin – TE Kaleo Ballungay ($4,000) Tight ends are not utilized much in this offense, as Ballungay has just three targets in two games. But man is he on the field a ton, playing over 96% of the team’s offensive snaps in both games to start the year. That’s your cheap GPP option that’ll have less than 2% ownership.
Pivot Play – RB Jai’Den Thomas ($5,800) This is what UNLV does in the Go-Go offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion – rotate 3-4 backs almost evenly. We saw it last year with Thomas, Vincent Davis and Donavyn Lester. While Thomas has played the fewest snaps of any of the top four running backs on the roster, he’s still the listed starter and I don’t believe that designation has changed any. He’ll get more run on Friday.
Best of the Rest – QB Matthew Sluka ($6,900) Through two weeks, UNLV sits third nationally in rush play percentage behind only Army and Navy. The Holy Cross transfer is a huge part of that success as the team’s leading rusher in both yards and carries. And probably will be forced to throw more as a touchdown underdog. WR Jacob de Jesus ($5,400) has three targets in each of the first two games and is the team’s top possession receiver. We’ll see a rotation at running back behind Thomas with RB Kylin James ($5,000), Greg Burrell ($5,100) and Michael Allen ($4,000) all getting carries. Burrell, just a freshman who said he’d break Thomas’ freshman touchdown record set just last year, seems to be the secondary option in the backfield, playing 81% of the team’s snaps last week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,400) Until we see Neal and this Kansas running game falter repeatedly, we’re going to continue to list the senior RB as the team’s top option. And the numbers overall for Kansas through two games aren’t alarming, as the Jayhawks are 19th in rush success rate. Even in a loss where the Jayhawks struggled with consistency, Neal managed to hit the 100-yard mark on just 14 attempts.
Fade – TEs. We mentioned this last week in our DFS article that included Kansas. The Jayhawks do not have a Mason Fairchild this season. Tight ends have combined for just three targets all season.
Bargain Bin – n/a. $4.8k is the lowest you’re going with a Kansas player.
Pivot Play – A Kansas receiver…Or two. This was considered blasphemy in years past. Between Luke Grimm, Quentin Skinner and Lawrence Arnold, we saw about 15% of the target share spread evenly across the board and very little impact in CFF or DFS. The situation isn’t totally dissimilar, but a small change that makes them more relevant, which we mentioned above. Tight ends, or anyone else for that matter, are not involved in this passing game right now. 41 of the team’s 50 targets have gone to those three players only. No rotation among KU backup receivers either. Grimm is the top choice of the group.
Best of the Rest – QB Jalon Daniels ($8,200) There isn’t enough data yet to make a strong conclusion as to whether Daniels is a good play this week or not. QBs are averaging just 11.0 FPPG against UNLV so far, but that’s including an FCS team and Donovan Smith. Of course, the numbers will look good. The projections have him as the third best option behind Avery Johnson and Matthew Sluka.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -7
O/U Total: 58
Implied Score: KSU 32.5 – UA 25.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Tetairoa McMillan ($8,600) A wide receiver that already has a 300-yard performance this season will assuredly be a team’s top play and always worth the price of admission. Kansas State has already allowed a 100-yard receiver this season in Mario Williams last week. The Wildcats also don’t grade out very well against the pass through two weeks, ranking 102nd in EPA per pass play.
Fade – WR Montana Lemonious-Craig ($5,100) I think we’re at the point to be able to say MLC is just not a good player. 150+ targets of vacated production from last season and Craig has all of three targets in two games. He’s the WR3 in this offense.
Bargain Bin – TE Keyan Burnett ($3,400) The talk in the offseason was that the tight end position would be featured more under Brent Brennan and the new staff. Hasn’t transpired just yet with starter Keyan Burnett having just four targets but is first among all Arizona pass-catchers in snaps played this season. I think it helps matters that the WR room has been a massive disappointment beyond T-Mac.
Pivot Play – WR Jeremiah Patterson ($4,500) Usage went up for Patterson last week in the win over Northern Arizona, leading the team with six targets and ran a route on 60% of his snaps. Patterson was one of the stars of fall camp for the Wildcats, so while it’s been a slow-ish start, it’s not as though anyone as has emerged as a WR2 in this offense yet.
Best of the Rest – RB Quali Conley ($7,100) Conley gets a huge boost with the eligibility issues for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. There is not an established RB2 now to steal carries away. Kansas State has been solid against the run to start the year, but also allowed Makhi Hughes to rush for 100+ last week. Good, not great play. WR Noah Fifita ($8,600) is my QB3 for the slate behind Avery Johnson and Matthew Sluka, because he doesn’t run. Fifita’s numbers may also suffer this season because Arizona has just one established option to catch the football right now.
Injury Notes – RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($6,400) Not injury related but doesn’t seem like we’ll see Croskey-Merritt anytime soon as they’re investigating an eligibility issue with the NCAA. Issue being…he might be out of eligibility.
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($7,600) Similar to WR in this two-game slate, there are two options superior to the rest with Giddens and Devin Neal. Some were concerned about Giddens entering the year given the turnover on the Kansas State OL combined with the arrival of Dylan Edwards. All Giddens has done is cross the century mark in rushing yards in both contests and continues to be a factor in the passing game, as shown by his 45-yard touchdown reception against Tulane.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($4,400) Won a good chunk of change last week betting on Cephas’ under prop and he rewarded us with zero receptions on a single target. Volume isn’t there for a $4.4k option that plays just 50% of the team’s snaps. Probably should’ve just stayed at Kent State.
Bargain Bin – WR Keagan Johnson ($4,100) Johnson should be priced where Cephas is at, having played close to 70% of the team’s offensive snaps vs. Tulane. Johnson was tied for second with three targets vs. the Green Wave. There’s really just two Kansas State wide receivers to consider at all in Johnson and WR Jayce Brown ($4,700).
Pivot Play – RB Dylan Edwards ($6,000) Interesting quote from Chris Klieman on Monday saying that the staff must do more to get Edwards involved in the offense. While we agree with that statement, Edwards has also been very productive in his limited opportunities with three total touchdowns in two games. While it’s probably preferred to have Giddens and Edwards in separate lineups, it’s not a must because of how both are featured in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – QB Avery Johnson ($7,800) Johnson is my favorite option of the slate facing an Arizona defense that struggled mightily already with a dual-threat QB earlier in the year with New Mexico’s Devon Dampier scoring 45 fantasy points. Johnson is far from a finished product as a passer and hasn’t run as much as we’d like for him to, but this feels like the game of the two options to turn into a shootout.
Injury Notes – n/a
