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Georgia vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: UGA -24.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: UGA 38.5 – SC 14
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Stetson Bennett ($7,300) DraftKings drops Bennett’s salary by almost two grand after Week 1 yet has outperformed expectations averaging over 28 FPPG through two games. Make it make sense. When did Georgia start running the Air Raid offense? 40 passing attempts per game through two weeks despite beating Oregon and Samford by a combined total of 79-3. Ruthless. Quarterback Stetson Bennett has continued his stellar play that led Georgia to a trophy last season, completing 75% of his passes with five total touchdowns.
Fade – TE Brock Bowers ($7,000) Now that I’m suggesting we fade Bowers, he’ll probably go off for a buck fifty and two scores. Because that’s how it goes. Just can’t rationalize spending $7k on a tight end with seven targets in just two games. In competitive matchups, we’ll see more of the Georgia starters, but how competitive will this game actually be? TE Darnell Washington ($3,900) has just one less target yet is $3,100 cheaper.
Bargain Bin – WR Dillon Bell ($3,000) The freshman was targeted seven times vs. Samford and caught the first touchdown reception of his college career. This was in the first half, subbing in for Mitchell after his injury. Should Mitchell be unavailable, look for increased playing time from Bell or WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($3,700).
Pivot Play – RB Kendall Milton ($5,100) Just when you think you know what the Georgia offensive game plan will be, Kirby Smart will flip the script on you and do the exact opposite. Georgia has not run the football effectively this season and had a poor showing against an overmatched Samford team. South Carolina lost two starting defenders for the season last week vs. Arkansas and three more starters are questionable on that side of the ball. Could be a get-right game for the UGA rush offense.
Best of the Rest – RB Kenny McIntosh ($6,700) The “backup” RB leads the Bulldogs with 14 receptions on 14 targets, playing the James Cook role from a year ago. McIntosh and Milton’s snap counts are nearly identical. WR Ladd McConkey ($6,000) leads all wide receivers with 10 targets and a 15.7 aDOT. Always hesitant to play Georgia receivers despite the high implied team totals. Why? 15 different players caught a pass last week vs. Samford.
Injury Notes – WR Adonai Mitchell ($7,200) is questionable with an ankle sprain. Not rostering him regardless of if he plays or not.
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Antwane Wells ($4,200) The James Madison transfer was the best player on the field Saturday in Fayetteville that was not named Raheim Sanders. Posted 8-189-1 on 10 targets, giving him 18 total targets through two games. No other South Carolina receiver has more than seven.
Fade – RB Marshawn Lloyd ($5,000) 20+ fantasy points in each of the first two weeks for the former 5-star recruit, who has looked like the 5-star recruit as he’s come back from injury. Lloyd’s utilization in the passing game is what will keep him in play for us in CFF/DFS, catching eight passes in two games. But South Carolina is struggling mightily to run the football, averaging just 1.9 YPC as a team. Not the week to fix those struggles against the Georgia front.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaheim Bell ($3,300) Was a popular punt play last week but proved to not be worth it as Bell scored just seven fantasy points with a 4th quarter garbage time touchdown run. Still think these sub-$3,500 prices keep him in the realm of possibilities because of his utilization as both a receiver and runner but is only playing 39% of the offensive snaps. Far less than what we thought it would be in the preseason.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Brooks ($3,600) Unlikely to be someone in any of my lineups, but Brooks is the third option in the USC passing game behind Wells and Lloyd with seven targets. Has played 69% of the offensive snaps which is third most of any non-offensive linemen.
Best of the Rest – QB Spencer Rattler ($5,200) I’m going to be tempted to play Rattler this weekend, I just know it. Game script will favor Rattler as a three-touchdown underdog and South Carolina’s inability to generate any sort of running game should lead to 30+ pass attempts. Completed 62% of his throws last week vs. Arkansas, though he continues to struggle with his deep ball accuracy. Writing this pre-projections release but I’m assuming we’ll see around 15 fantasy points expected. Worth it at just $5,200?
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: OU -10.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: OU 38.5 – Neb 28
Weather: 82 degrees / 43% rain / 20 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,500) Another selection by default as Gabriel is the player we trust most on the OU offense to produce points, but unlikely to be a player we’re owning much of because of his pricing. Weird line movement in Vegas this week where the Sooners opened at 13.5-point favorites, and now dropping to 10.5. Insiders think Nebraska gets a injection of confidence with Scott Frost’s firing? The Cornhuskers have one of the worst pass defenses in the entire country, allowing 284.7 YPG, but the weather looks to be a concern for Saturday with rain and wind in the forecast.
Fade – Theo Wease ($7,700) Not even worthy of a pivot play for lower ownership. Second on the team in targets and second in offensive snaps played among receivers, sure. Yet all he’s done with that time on the field is four receptions for minimal yardage. WR Jalil Farooq ($5,000) is the play if you’re looking at another Oklahoma receiver not named Marvin Mims.
Bargain Bin – TE Brayden Willis ($3,700) Quite performance against Kent State with just one reception, but still sees the field more than any other Oklahoma skill position player. Was still targeted four times last week, just didn’t see the production.
Pivot Play – WR Marvin Mims ($8,900) Those that have played CFB DFS the last two seasons know that Mims’ stat-lines can be a rollercoaster. And he’s cost myself significant money over the years with his dud performances with Lincoln Riley playing him less than half the time. But it’s evident through two games that Mims and Gabriel have chemistry, as the junior wideout leads the team with 10 receptions on 12 targets and 46% of OU’s receiving yards. Still third among OU receivers in terms of overall offensive snaps, but hasn’t diminished his production. Will be very low owned on Saturday given his salary, but is the potential GPP winner we seek.
Best of the Rest – RB Eric Gray ($7,500) Maybe interim head coach Micky Joseph will have the Cornhuskers playing inspired football, but Nebraska has been shredded in the run game the last two weeks…by North Dakota and Georgia Southern. Trouble here with Gray is he looked like his 2021 self against Kent State, where some would argue that backup Marcus Major ($5,100) might be the best back on the roster. Has seen just 12 rushing attempts but averaging well over seven yards per attempt with three touchdowns. Think we’ll start seeing a split backfield here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – WR Trey Palmer ($4,200) I’m assuming Palmer has this low a salary because he hasn’t found the end-zone yet? Only reason I can see, because he’s been very productive otherwise, converting on 72% of his 25 targets through three games with 18 receptions to lead the Cornhuskers. $4,200 is too cheap for a WR1 on a team that is averaging 32.3 pass/att per game.
Fade – WRs beyond the top two. We’ll hit on who WR2 is below, but the top two for Nebraska currently account for 44% of the team’s total target share, with only Alante Brown in double digits (10 targets). Since scoring a touchdown in the opener, Isaiah Garcia-Casteneda has been targeted just twice in two games and playing just 35% of snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Washington ($3,600) Offensive outburst for the Nebraska offense last week, albeit in a losing effort, with the Texas transfer having his best game of the year with 6-123-0 on eight targets which tied for the team lead.
Pivot Play – QB Casey Thompson ($6,800) Vegas totals and projections I’ve seen elsewhere agree that we should be expecting around four touchdowns for Nebraska Saturday. At these prices, realistically everyone is in place. If there has been a weaker component of the OU defense between defending the pass or run, it has been the secondary (not bad by any stretch), rankings 61st in success rate via the pass. And if that doesn’t work, Thompson is always a threat with his legs, as he proved last week with three rushing scores. Don’t think Thompson will get much attention in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – RB Anthony Grant ($6,200) This is a historical coaching trend that is not following suit this year where OC Mark Whipple has seemingly always preferred a RBBC. Not in 2022 where the former JUCO transfer is garnering 62% of the market volume share in the Nebraska backfield. The Sooners are allowing just 2.31 yards per carry through two games.
Injury Notes – TE Travis Vokolek is day-to-day with injury.