To gain access to all of theCFFsite’s exclusive DFS content, as well as Weekly Player Projections, click here to see membership options for the 2022 season.
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.
Texas Tech vs. NC State
Point-Spread: NC St -10.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: NC St 33 – Texas Tech 22.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Jerand Bradley ($4,000) I missed on Bradley’s prop overs last week but it wasn’t due to lack of volume. Six receptions on a team-high 13 targets in the win over Houston. Think the Cougars did an excellent job, for the most part, executing their game plan of keeping everything in front of them and making the passing game methodically operate down the field. It’s noticeable as the 6-foot-5 Bradley’s yards per route run dropped from 6.35 in Week 1 to just 0.82 in Week 2.
Fade – RB SaRodorick Thompson ($5,000) After splitting carries in Week 1, we really saw some separation between Thompson and Tahj Brooks against Houston where the latter nearly doubled Thompson in snap counts and out-carried him 18-5. For a team that is No. 1 in the country in neutral game pass rate, you’re really only allowed to consider one running back here and that’s Brooks.
Bargain Bin – WR Loic Fouonji ($4,700) Interesting to me that they priced Bradley above Fouonji this week as the latter was mostly a non-factor against Houston, targeted just six times (not a lot considering Tech threw it 54 times). I would not forget about him here, and really could be considered a pivot option as well. Played 81 of 106 offensive snaps last week, second most of the wide receivers behind Bradley. Targets weren’t there, but he’s on the field a good bit.
Pivot Play – RB Tahj Brooks ($5,600) See above on SaRodrick Thompson discussion. Brooks is our second-highest projected Texas Tech player this week after rushing for 78 yards and a score vs. Houston. Was also a frequent option in the passing game, catching all five of his targets. Now has four rushing touchdowns in the first two games.
Best of the Rest – WR Nehemiah Martinez ($4,300) I would say buyer beware here if you plan on rostering Martinez who had a breakout game last week with 76 yards on five receptions. Maybe my perspective is off, but I believe much of his production came when Myles Price was in the locker room nursing an injury. My understanding is he is the third option in the slot behind Price and Xavier White ($3,700). I will not be playing QB Donovan Smith ($7,700) this week personally and hope that decision doesn’t come back to bite me. Night game on the road at a sold out stadium that will be a black out? NC State is 6th in the country through two weeks in defensive pass play success rate. Smith will throw it around a bunch, but last week’s struggles have me tentative about this matchup. I’ll be underweight.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB Devin Leary ($7,000) The Tech defense has been far better than most anticipated through two games, giving Clayton Tune and the Houston passing game all sorts of fits. Advanced data would suggest though that they’re a bit overrated than the high-level numbers indicate, ranking 112th in pass play success rate. After a sub-par performance against East Carolina in Week 1, Leary was sharp in the win over an FCS opponent, throwing for 238 yards with six total touchdowns. As proven last year, Leary has one of the highest floors of any quarterback in the country.
Fade – RB Jordan Houston ($5,700) If it hasn’t happened already, Jordan Houston will lose his starting job at some point this season. Scored double-digit fantasy points in both games this season, but there’s a more talented option in the NC State backfield which we’ll hit on in a bit. Not to mention Texas Tech is No. 1 in the Big 12 in rush defense through two weeks.
Bargain Bin – RB Demie Sumo ($4,400) Regardless of the starter, NC State has typically preferred to rotate their backs, with the RB1 averaging just 11.8 carries per game over the last four seasons. So we’re not advocating being overweight on a Wolfpack running back. But Sumo has been dynamite through two games, averaging more than 75 yards per game despite only getting eight total touches in Week 2. Averaging 7.1 yards per carry, and likely takes the starting job from Houston at some point this year.
Pivot Play – WRs. Lumping them into one because it’s all across the board through two games. No receiver has more than 15% target share, and 11 different NC State wideouts have caught a pass. Best indication of where to put our focus is the Week 1 nailbiter over East Carolina where Devin Carter ($6,000), Thayer Thomas ($5,800) and Keyone Lesane ($3,500) all saw 59% or more of the offensive snaps. Those three are your starters.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -6.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: A&M 25.5 – Miami 19
Weather: 82 degrees / 10% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($5,800) Miami is going to have to throw to win this game, and they have the significant edge at quarterback in the matchup. TVD has been just ‘ok’ through two games, completing 74 % of his passes with three touchdowns, and now will be down his top target in this game. I don’t view it as a crippling loss with Restrepo out, so that doesn’t change my opinion much here. Not a quarterback I’ll be investing in though, with such a low team total.
Fade – RB Henry Parrish ($5,500) Not a steep price to pay for a running back that has 50% of the team’s volume share and four rushing touchdowns. But we’re going to see more Jaylan Knighton this week, and the Miami offensive line has not been good analytically, ranking 127th in Line Yards and 89th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Michael Redding ($3,900) Will be one of the top four options in the passing game tonight, and is second on the team in receiving yards (76). Arguably the top contested catch receiver on the team, Redding was targeted five times vs. Southern Miss.
Pivot Play – WR Keyshawn Smith ($4,600) Smith doesn’t sit highly in our projections at just 8.6, but we’ve seen him be a productive player in the past and is No. 1 on offensive snaps played among Miami receivers. He gets a boost with Restrepo out. Texas A&M is sixth in the country so far in pass defense, so we don’t have to jam anyone in from the Miami side here.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylan Knighton ($4,500) Expect Parrish to still be the RB1 here, but Knighton is the type of versatile piece that should be featured in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair. HC Mario Cristobal said Knighton is “full-go.”
Injury Notes – WR Xavier Restrepo ($5,100) is out indefinitely with a foot injury.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Devon Achane ($6,200) Projections still like Achane this week despite the offensive line for A&M not performing up to standards thus far in the year. 118th in stuff rate and 69th in line yards. Miami limited a good Southern Miss ground attack to just 24 yards on 23 carries. But you’re not breaking the bank here for a top-tier running back at $6,200.
Fade – WRs outside of Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart ($3,800) 58% target share between the top two options in the Aggie passing attack. Freshman WR Yulkeith Brown ($3,000), after scoring a touchdown in the opener, saw his snap counts cut in half in a competitive game. I trust two A&M pass-catchers only in this game.
Bargain Bin – WR Evan Stewart ($3,800) Maybe the best bang for your buck play on the entire slate. If you think Max Johnson upgrades the A&M passing game – can’t get much worse – than Stewart is likely to be a factor as he leads the team in targets (17) and tied for first in routes run with Ainias Smith ($5,000).
Pivot Play – WR Ainias Smith ($5,000) See above on team target share notes.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Johnson ($4,500) I won’t be playing Johnson this week, but he’ll be an upgrade over Haynes King, and this is a quarterback with plenty of starting experience in big games. You could do a hell of a lot worst at $4,500 for someone that 27 passing touchdowns a year ago. Miami has struggled to defend the pass in its first two matchups against two less-than-inspiring opponents in Bethune Cookman and Southern Miss, where a first-time starter for USM completed 60% of his passes for 200+ yards and a touchdown. And now I’m talking myself into playing Johnson as we speak.
Injury Notes – n/a
To gain access to all of theCFFsite’s exclusive DFS content, as well as Weekly Player Projections, click here to see membership options for the 2022 season.
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.