Ohio @ Louisiana
Point-Spread: UL -20
O/U Total: 57
Weather: 73 degrees / 46% rain / 6 mph winds
Ohio:
The Bobcats don’t want to throw the ball downfield in perfect weather, I can only imagine what the mindset will be in not-so-perfect conditions with rain and wind expected. Starting QB Kurtis Rourke is completing 70 percent of his passes, but just 6.2 yards per attempt and his 8.4 aDOT puts him in the same company as Tommy DeVito and Todd Centeio among FBS quarterbacks. Not the crew you want to be accompanied with. I do think this is a situation where you’ll want to try and fit him in as that’s guaranteed points where neither team has established wide receivers that you can go cheap on the position. Averaging just five carries a game in five starts so don’t go expecting his brother Nathan Rourke.
We have some injuries to monitor at wide receiver with Jerome Buckner and Isiah Cox both questionable to play on Thursday. Buckner had a breakout Week 1 performance but was held to zero catches vs. Duquesne and suffered a shoulder injury. We’ll see if he’s back on short week. Cox, the projected WR1 to begin the year, has missed both weeks. With both players out/limited, it was primarily the duo of Cameron Odom and Tyler Walton who dominated the snap counts in Week 2, and led with 26 and 23 routes run, respectively. No other receiver ran more than nine routes. 6-foot-3 true FR Aramoni Rhone and Vanderbilt transfer James Bostic saw extended work with the lack of healthy options. Tight end Ryan Luehrman ran 20 routes on 24 pass plays and is the team’s third option in the passing game if both Buckner/Cox are out.
Despite returning most of their starters on defense, Louisiana has not been good thus far defending the run, allowing 4.08 yards per carry in two games. Would be forgiven considering they’ve faced Bijan Robinson already, but the Cajuns then went out and allowed 152 yards rushing to Nicholls State. I did not see the game vs. Duquesne and Ohio information is limited, so I’m curious to see if I can find out why O’Shaan Allison out-snapped De’Montre Tuggle. For CFF purposes, this was always the concern with drafting Tuggle as the system prefers two backs, but Tuggle is the far better player so its interesting to see him play less when he was very effective with 44 yards on seven carries with a TD, along with an 86-yard kickoff return. The Bobcats are heavy underdogs, but the early season numbers would indicate them being able to find some success on Thursday against the 87th ranked run defense, as Ohio is 1st nationally in Offensive Power Success and 37th in Line Yards created.
Louisiana:
This has not been the same Louisiana offense that we’ve been used to over the last several years under head coach Billy Napier with the rushing attack struggling right now. Fingers point to first-year starter Chris Smith, but it’s not all on him with the offensive line not performing up to standards despite five starters back. 96th in line yards, 83rd in power success and 89th in rush play PPA. This week seems like a good time to fix said issues against an Ohio defense that is allowing 225 yards per game on the ground through two weeks and 74th in rush play PPA.
Because of the lack of a rushing game, UL is taking to the air more, averaging eight more passing attempts through two games than they did a year ago. Promising for those with QB Levi Lewis in their lineups as his completion rate is up (64.6%) and is averaging almost 90 more yards per game through the air. Sustainable? Not really the identity of this offensive scheme, and as of Tuesday, it is supposed to rain most of the day on Thursday in Lafayette. Lewis will be a lock in our lineups, but debate to be had if the captain or not. Will likely be a popular Captain choice so a chance to pivot in GPPs with another selection.
The volume share in the backfield is similar to year’s past, we are just seeing less rushing attempts. Redshirt FR Emani Bailey began the year as the RB2, but has not been effective with just 41 yards on 11 attempts (3.7 YPC). Notable that true FR Montrell Johnson, who did garner praise during fall camp, has now out-snapped Bailey in each of the first two games, though not by a substantial margin. Has there been a chance in the pecking order of the Louisiana backfield? All three are potential options for Thursday in your lineups. FWIW – Bailey is still listed ahead of Johnson on the depth chart with no OR listed.
The Cajuns will use up to seven different receivers on a consistent basis, but we saw their core group get the most snaps last week vs. Nicholls with Kyren Lacy, Dontae Fleming, Peter LeBlanc and Jalen Williams. Lacy is the clear-cut WR1 with six catches on 12 targets, and is only marginally priced ahead of the others so he would get the nod for me, but we saw five different receivers lead the team in fantasy points in a given week back in 2020 and we are off to a similar start this season.
If looking outside that group of four, Michael Jefferson or former TCU transfer John Stephens Jr. would be in play as both notched a touchdown last week on six combined catches. Both are taller options at 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-5, respectively. Three different tight ends have a combined 10 targets in two games, making them a longshot punt play at very best.
Because this is a showdown, we potentially must start a kicker. Kenneth Almendares has converted on all four of his attempts, though inclement weather could make things difficult. Implied total of 38.5 means Almendares should have plenty of chances at scoring.
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