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Virginia vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Cuse -10
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Cuse 32 – UVA 22.5
Weather: Dome
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Keytaon Thompson ($5,800) By far the most effective receiver UVA’s had this season with 18 receptions on 24 targets, topping 100 yards last week against Old Dominion. Syracuse’s pass defense numbers look good but have allowed multiple 100-yard receivers already this season. One of the highest floors of any player on this slate.
Fade – No other WR beyond the top three. The aforementioned Thompson, Dontayvion Wicks ($6,000) and Lavel Davis ($4,600) all have over 20 targets this season, accounting for 81% of the team’s total target share. Nex closest is tight end Grant Misch with nine. Wouldn’t even screw around rostering anyone outside of the top three receivers. You’ll just have to deal with the drops if selecting Wicks or Davis in your lineups as they’ve combined for seven of them already.
Bargain Bin – RB Xavier Brown ($3,000) That leads right into our min priced option in Brown who should see increased work vs. Syracuse after rushing for 88 yards on nine carries last week. Coaching quotes back this up with HC Tony Elliott calling Brown the running back “with the most tenacity out of all the guys.”
Pivot Play – RB Perris Jones ($5,400) Technically speaking, Jones is still the start, did play the most offensive snaps against Old Dominion and did still average over five yards a carry vs. the Monarchs. But we’re seeing both Mike Hollins and Xavier Brown get extended looks in the backfield and those have increased with each week. Syracuse is allowing just 13.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far.
Best of the Rest – QB Brennan Armstrong ($6,600) Would be tough to sit Armstrong with a limited number of quarterbacks available on the slate, but we don’t have a high projected total for UVA this week. Have to think that Armstrong’s former OC Robert Anae will be feeding the Syracuse defense coordinator some inside tips on how to best limit his former quarterback this week. Syracuse is 44th in pass play success rate defensively and shut down Aidan O’Connell much of last Saturday before that game went off the rails.
Injury Notes – WR Billy Kemp is out due to injury.
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Shrader ($7,800) Credit to Purdue last week who made Shrader look like the 2021 version of himself, completing just 44.8% of his passes and looking completely uncomfortable when dropping back to pass. Still managed to get there with 260+ total yards and three touchdowns, scoring 29 fantasy points. UVA’s pass defense looks ‘ok’ on the surface, but when you’re giving up 20+ fantasy points to both Hayden Wolff and Tommy DeVito, there’s some issues on the back end. UVA is 105th in pass play success rate defensively.
Fade – WR Damian Alford ($5,000) Alford did play over 63% of the offensive snaps in the win over Purdue last week but does not appear to be a priority option in the passing game anymore. May bump up one slot in the pecking order due to injury (see below) but is now sixth on the team with just five targets in three games.
Bargain Bin – WR Devaughn Cooper ($3,000) Played 54% of snaps vs. Purdue and is third on the team in targets with 11. Not a priority play by any stretch, but far better value than Alford. Rotation should tighten a bit with the Isaiah Jones injury.
Pivot Play – WR Oronde Gadsden ($6,400) Gadsden is coming off a career day with six receptions for 112 yards and two scores and looks to be thriving in the tight end/wide receiver role that Keytaon Thompson played in under OC Robert Anae a year ago. Led all receivers in snaps played vs. Purdue and is second on the team in targets (14).
Best of the Rest – RB Sean Tucker ($9,100) Tucker is always in play for us as a dual-threat weapon out of the backfield, leading the team with 18 targets. Tough matchup, though, against a UVA defense that has really limited opposing run games, allowing just 11.1 FPPG to RB1s this season. Chase Brown scored just 14 fantasy points against Virginia – a season-low. WR Courtney Jackson ($3,800) is fourth on the team with 10 targets.
Injury Notes – WR Isaiah Jones is out of the season due to injury.